The rain did change over to snow on the southside last night after midnight. Big, heavy, wet flakes, but zero accumulation. Was fun to see even if it was only for a little bit!

Watching this coming Tuesday for maybe a shot at a little clipper-type storm moving through. Cold air could be in place for winter precipitation. Will monitor.

Watching this coming Tuesday for maybe a shot at a little clipper-type storm moving through. Cold air could be in place for winter precipitation. Will monitor.

Not going to drop a ton of snow, right?

Not going to drop a ton of snow, right?

Of course not, they are already trying to hype this as "possibly" some winter precipitation. I expect the metro to get nothing or next to nothing. What surprises me is that we haven't had any good solid artic fronts drop down and give us colder temps. January was warmer than normal and I expect Feb to do the same.

Of course not, they are already trying to hype this as "possibly" some winter precipitation. I expect the metro to get nothing or next to nothing. What surprises me is that we haven't had any good solid artic fronts drop down and give us colder temps. January was warmer than normal and I expect Feb to do the same.

My tree is already flowering and it was covered in bees today!! WTH Oklahoma!! It’s January!!

Rain will develop late tonight into tomorrow morning across the area. At the same time, temperatures will gradually fall throughout the day as the low moves east into the plains.

As of now, it looks like potential for snowfall will be on the north and west sides of the low. So the track will be important. Currently all models suggest snow chances will be best out across far NW OK and trailing off toward NC OK. Depending on the low's exact path, there are some very localized areas that could get under a heavy snowband, resulting in 4-7" amounts.

In central OK - little to no impacts are anticipated from the snow, except where it may fall heavier for a short burst - allowing roads to become temporarily covered. The ground temperatures will be abnormally warm due to the mild weather we will experience on Monday.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2020012712/namconus_ref_frzn_scus_36.png




https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2020012712/hrrr_asnow_scus_34.png



https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2020012712/nam3km_asnow_scus_35.png



https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/rgem/2020012712/rgem_asnow_scus_43.png

From NOAA for NW OKC

Tonight
A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after midnight. Low around 38. East wind 8 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Tuesday
Rain before noon, then rain and snow. High near 38. North wind 16 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

Tuesday Night
Rain and snow likely before midnight. Cloudy, with a low around 27. North wind 11 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?x=197&y=105&site=oun&zmx=&zmy=&map_x=197&map_y=105#.Xi90oiVMHYU

Just a handful of degrees colder across the state and this would be a significant snow event. The track was perfect. A few counties in extreme NW OK got a decent amount.

Fantastic weekend on deck. Very mild and sunshine.

Next storm action looks like maybe again Tuesday/Wednesday next week. More cold weather in the further outlook pipelines.

Going to go ahead and issue a Bread & Milk Watch for Tuesday into Wednesday. Ice and snow chances looking increasingly likely. At this time it does appear it could be a significant event.

Fantastic weekend on deck. Very mild

Mild? MILD?!? It's 80 M#$&!F'ing degrees.
In February.

Mild? MILD?!? It's 80 M#$&!F'ing degrees.
In February.

I remember I think back in February 2017 that KOKC hit 88 degrees. I believe that month as a whole finished about 7-8 degrees above average.

Mild? MILD?!? It's 80 M#$&!F'ing degrees.
In February.

And now winter storm watch soon:

Areas Affected:
Caddo - Canadian - Carter - Cleveland - Comanche - Cotton - Garvin - Grady - Greer - Harmon - Jackson - Jefferson - Kingfisher - Kiowa - Lincoln - Logan - Love - McClain - Murray - Oklahoma - Payne - Pottawatomie - Seminole - Stephens - Tillman - Was hita

Effective: Tue, 2/4 6:00pm Updated: Mon, 2/3 3:30am Urgency: Future
Expires: Wed, 2/5 6:00pm Severity: Moderate Certainty: Possible

Details:

...A WINTER STORM IS EXPECTED TO BRING SNOW INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...
* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 6
inches possible with locally higher amounts.
* WHERE...All of western sections of north Texas, and that part of
Oklahoma generally west of a line from Marietta to Ardmore to
Davis to Seminole, and southeast of a line from Stillwater to
Kingfisher to Cordell to Hollis.
* WHEN...From Tuesday evening through Wednesday afternoon.
* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous
conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Continue to monitor the forecast for
updated information as the storm system approaches.

Strong cold front blasts across OK tonight. Windchills overnight and into tomorrow morning will be very low.

Storm begins to move into SW TX. As usual, the track is very important for who gets what. At this time, it appears the track of the low will be very favorable for producing heavy amount of snow and ice across OK.

Tuesday highs will be just above freezing here in C OK with a healthy north wind. We should see some freezing drizzle and/or sleet/snow beginning around sundown. This will transition to full snow parameters as we head into the overnight hours. We should see 1-2 large areas of moderate to heavy snow form across TX and spread to the N/NE. Currently the track for heaviest snowbands appears to be across far NW TX and up along the I-44 corridor through OK. Amounts taper off the further NE. The track and evolution of the snowbands tomorrow night will be very important as the gradient to the NW of precipitation will be very sharp. W/NW OK could easily see little to zero snow. Because of this tight gradient, a shift slightly further south/east in the track will result in the heaviest snow totals being dragged to the SE. So here in central OK, there is bust potential as a result of a too far south track.

At this time, OKC has a pretty good shot for say at least 5 inches. Once we get further into the window of some of the shorter-range forecast models, we can have more ways to pinpoint exact track.

Winter Storm warnings will be issued either tonight or by early Tuesday morning.


https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2020020312/namconus_asnow_scus_22.png



https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2020020312/gem_asnow_scus_13.png

As mentioned at the end of my last paragraph, here is a GFS run showing a track that is further SE, which would bust out C OK.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2020020312/gfs_asnow_scus_12.png

The ground will be incredibly warm from the last couple of days.

Even if we got a healthy snowfall, you have to think it won't last very long, as by Thursday temps should be well above freezing.

The ground will be incredibly warm from the last couple of days.

Even if we got a healthy snowfall, you have to think it won't last very long, as by Thursday temps should be well above freezing.

Yep, but a full day near freezing will make bridges much more susceptible to icing if it does happen, so driving will be annoying for Wednesday and until we get above freezing Thursday.

Cold front has arrived here in OKC. Temperatures will pretty much continue to fall from here on out. Maybe recover a few degrees tomorrow around lunchtime before falling below freezing during precipitation.

For OKC as of when I am posting this:
Tuesday evening - Perhaps some fast passing freezing rain/drizzle patches moving through the area, should not be too extreme.
Midnight Tuesday night/Wednesday morning - Moderate and heavy snow moves up from NW TX across C OK.
6am Wednesday - Event is nearing its peak, moderate and heavy blowing snow across all of I-44, freezing rain and rain transition as you move ESE.
After that - Gradual tapering of snow bands through afternoon Wednesday before conclusion of the event around 5pm.

Here is a snapshot showing the heaviest precipitation occurring across the region Wednesday morning.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/rgem/2020020318/rgem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_42.png

Seems like the cold front came in much sooner than expected

It definitely came through early. Waiting to let models digest the front’s advancement for tonight to watch for changes. If the boundary continues to move further SE than forecast, the track of the main low will follow. This is why it is very important to keep updated. The track could shift SE by 50 miles and the result on the NW side of the snowfall is dramatically different.

So....any updates??

Here are some snow total forecast updates. Models are favoring heaviest banding to be just south of I-44 corridor. Also NAM is now breaking up the main bulb of snow, which will significantly limit snowfall amounts if it comes to fruition. Basically NAM is saying the low dumps heavy snow in NW TX, then the precipitation kind of dies out across OK as the storm moves much too quickly for heavy sustained development of snow.

NWS issues Winter Storm Warning for SW to C OK along I-44 corridor, favoring the southern edge.


GFS:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2020020406/gfs_asnow_scus_11.png




HRRR:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2020020412/hrrr_asnow_scus_33.png



GEM:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/rgem/2020020406/rgem_asnow_scus_48.png



CMC:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2020020400/gem_asnow_scus_10.png



NAM 3K:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2020020412/nam3km_asnow_scus_47.png

Latest GFS is coming in line with the 3KM NAM. This forecast is crazy, 30 mile fluctuations is going to be the difference in a dusting and up to 8".

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2020020412/gfs_asnow_scus_9.png

WINTER STORM WARNING - Includes all 3 metros.

Effective: Tue, 2/4 9:00pm Updated: Tue, 2/4 12:45pm Urgency: Expected
Expires: Wed, 2/5 6:00pm Severity: Moderate Certainty: Likely

Details:

...A WINTER STORM IS EXPECTED TO BRING SNOW AND SLEET TO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...
...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM
CST WEDNESDAY...
* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Total snow and sleet
accumulations of 4 to 7 inches.
* WHERE...Portions of central, east central, southeast, southern
and southwest Oklahoma and northern Texas.
* WHEN...From 9 PM this evening to 6 PM CST Wednesday.
* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous
conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

Counties in pink covered:

https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/png/oun.png

So....any updates??

Watched all 3 local weather last night. On a bread/milk scale:

Mike Morgan/channel 4: 8
Channel 5 and 9: 4

Mike won the snowmegedden contest hands down

He calls it a nightmare to forecast, but Aaron Tuttle on Twitter sees more of a sleet/freezing rain mix Wednesday morning, meaning less snow, but still enough to count. But as one response put it, "Are we inching toward a non-event?"

Latest data from short-range models is all coming in within the next hour. We will have some high resolution stuff to look at, too. Will post new images soon.

New data is rolling in. There is a continued shift of heaviest precipitation being to the SE of I-44. However, the models are now increasing precipitation intensity and the snowband coverage further NW at the same time. Also a new factor that models are beginning to hint at - a continuous snowband could develop between the main bulk of snow that we get early in the night, and the final wrap-around bulk of snow we get toward afternoon. If this band comes to fruition, there could be a localized area of constant light to moderate snow in addition to the main precipitation bulbs.

I would still shoot for 5" in OKC area, heavier the further S and E sides. We could have localized areas picking up 8" if the snowbands run just right.

Precipitation should begin in OKC between 2am and 4am.


Latest 3KM NAM:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2020020418/nam3km_asnow_scus_46.png


Latest HRRR:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2020020418/hrrr_asnow_scus_32.png

I've been trying to tell people here at work that the actual track of this storm is such that a twenty-or-so mile change in path could mean the difference between a big pile of snow and a comparative dusting. This is where the models get people in trouble, because they're just not designed to be *that* precise, but the expectation is they will be.

Latest GFS has loaded in bust for OKC, Latest GEM bust for majority of OK. This is as of latest run (about 4pm Central). Both of these runs suggest majority precipitation further east in the non-frozen sector.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2020020418/gfs_asnow_scus_7.png


https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/rgem/2020020418/rgem_asnow_scus_54.png

Well this will be an interesting night as we see which way this event unfolds.

Well this will be an interesting night as we see which way this event unfolds.

My Crystal Ball shows about 8-10 inches of snow in OKC as storm moves a little further north than expected.

My Crystal Ball shows about 8-10 inches of snow in OKC as storm moves a little further north than expected.

It is possible for the track to shift back north, but as of now the trend to move heaviest precipitation to the east by the models is reality right now.

Here is latest snapshot of HRRR (this refreshes every hour and is usually pretty good indicator for very short window forecasts. This shows a large majority of accumulating snow being east of I-44.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2020020421/hrrr_ref_frzn_scus_18.png

It is possible for the track to shift back north, but as of now the trend to move heaviest precipitation to the east by the models is reality right now.

Here is latest snapshot of HRRR (this refreshes every hour and is usually pretty good indicator for very short window forecasts. This shows a large majority of accumulating snow being east of I-44.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2020020421/hrrr_ref_frzn_scus_18.png

Well my Crystal Ball is known to be wrong more than right. But I love snow so one can only hope. Looks like this one is shaping up to be a bunch of nothing for OKC.

OKCPS, Moore P.S., Norman P.S. and Mid-Del P.S have all cancelled classes for Wednesday.

Edmond now canceled aslo

OKCPS, Moore P.S., Norman P.S. and Mid-Del P.S have all cancelled classes for Wednesday.

That’s a sure fire sign that tomorrow morning the metro will be nice and clear.

Anonymous, educate me please. All the NAM runs today have varied greatly in total snowfall between the 3km and 12km models. What’s the difference between 3km and 12km?

Anonymous, educate me please. All the NAM runs today have varied greatly in total snowfall between the 3km and 12km models. What’s the difference between 3km and 12km?


Essentially no difference other than resolution/scale to show a more realistic forecast. The 3KM is better used for spotting WHERE precipitation will develop/track versus the 12KM painting a broader area. The 3KM model is actually a piece of the 12KM itself. But it is isolated because it can be useful as it looks at specific reflectivity locations as opposed to all of the many pieces combined in the 12KM.


Edit: going to tag onto this for a quick update. There is currently freezing rain and drizzle developing along I-44 corridor right now. Some sleet will mix in as well. Bridged and overpasses are primary concern with early precip.

I’m willing to bet that a dry slot moves in from the northwest and cuts this system off and we get little snow throughout the entirety of the metro/Norman area making this system a bust. Most of the precipitation will be forced to the southeast in the form of a little snow, some ice, and some very cold rain as is typical with Oklahoma winter weather ;)

I'm betting on the Dry Slot. It usually always happens.

Nws as of 30 min ago saying 4-6 for the metro

Latest HRRR has continued trend of increasing amounts of the NW snowfall. However, it is also trending toward a dryslot that will interrupt any measurable snowfall from the wrap-around.

Remember there was signs earlier today that we could have snow basically constantly falling across some areas. Now this looks like it may not be the case. If the dry air erodes the connected precipitation between the initial heavy wave and the wrap-around wave - then amounts will be less.

Here is a shot of the model. The gap between the snow in OK and the snow back in TX, was previously filled in as a solid development line.

https://tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2020020503/hrrr_ref_frzn_scus_13.png

Is this going to lead to a lot of ice on the roads in the AM, or will it be more snow-based precipitation?

Ground temperatures in C OK are still around 40F. However, it is expected that precipitation will fall heavy and quickly enough to override any melting rate below. I expect roads to be slick with sleet/snow/slush mix, especially bridges. However, if precipitation stops and cars continue over the same lanes, we will probably see pathing from tires training over the same areas which result in relatively safer conditions.

Dry Slot wins again my friends. Well Damn!!

HRRR still trending track to the north at this time. Amounts are still not as impressive as before, but it looks like the SE sides of I-44 that was originally the bullseye, may end up with more freezing rain and sleet than heavy snow.

1:30am update.

Models are flipping higher snow from east to west of I-44. Warmer upper air profiles are resulting in more freezing rain and sleet rather than snow. Also storm track is tilting more to the north.

https://tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2020020506/hrrr_asnow_scus_13.png

Light to Moderate snow moving into OKC as of 2:30am. NAM has confirmed shift in track more north. Suggesting Higher totals will be more aligned with I-44 as opposed to further east.

I would say Norman could be a bullseye point for a localized heavier snow spot.

Dry slot eating away some snow totals after sunrise still looks likely at this time. So nothing too crazy barring new development zones becoming established.

Decent sized flakes falling in Edmond.

Nice Snow!!!!!!

Nice Snow!!!!!!

It's more than I expected after reading this thread last night. The snowfall amounts for the most part were verified.

Looks like there is a dry slot, but a lot of snow dumped in the first wave.

Pauls Valley is getting a bunch. I wonder what their total will be when the snow ends.

I think OKC mostly got around 4-5".

I'd say a legit 5" at my house near Penn Square.

By far the biggest snowfall we've had in years.

Right at 4.5 inches in Surrey Hills.

Here is an idea of where any wrap-around snow may come through later this afternoon. Mostly light snow, maybe some pockets of moderate.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2020020514/hrrr_ref_frzn_scus_9.png

Here are preliminary totals. You can see how the shift in track completely altered the amounts. The west side of I-44 ended up getting the higher amounts as opposed to the forecasted double amounts to the E. Every mile matters so much in these situations.


https://i.imgur.com/MoUOJwN.png

^

Greatly appreciate all the info. Great asset to all of us.


Due to the very warm days that preceded this snowfall, you can now see that most paved areas are rapidly melting the snow. Will refreeze overnight I'm sure but most streets seem to be pretty clear.

Yes, thanks!!

The winter scene at OSU Library. Around 4 in. of snow. Classes canceled. Tickets well be free tonight at the OSU vs TCU basketball game.

https://stillwaterweather.com/photos/osulibrary.png