Warming up and sunshine heading into November's opening weekend. Looking at next storm potential for late next week, right now leaning towards rain - but colder temperatures could be close by.

Cold rain still on tap for Wednesday into Thursday. Best chances are SE half of OK. With heaviest concentration looking to be south central OK.

Highs in the 40s for Thurs and Friday. Mild again by Saturday

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2019110512/namconus_apcpn_scus_22.png

OKC proper is just inside the Marginal Risk for severe tonight... https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

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I’m seeing Mon/Tue highs as 38 for OKC with 20% chance of mixed rain/snow on Mon, and Tue morning low of 23. This is from NOAA.

Yes did not want to really make any comments on that until after this storm coming through tonight. But yes, there is a chance of a storm coming through Monday into Tuesday. Winter precipitation for C OK still looks like a long shot, but the coldest temperatures of the season so far looks like a good bet.

Latest forecast from the NWS has a low of 20F for OKC on Monday Night. Not great for the first half of November.

Weather is gorgeous out right now though at least lol. And the weekend looks very nice as well.

Looks like rain is done for okc metro. Got .2" compared to the 1-1/2" they were saying. Like they say a broken clock is right twice a day. Unbelievable

Looks like rain is done for okc metro. Got .2" compared to the 1-1/2" they were saying. Like they say a broken clock is right twice a day. Unbelievable

It's still raining in Stillwater with .82", so far. It may easily come within the 1 to 2" forecast. We'll see if you spoke too soon. It's still a developing situation.

https://radblast.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/radar/WUNIDS_composite?centerlat=36.06566&centerlon=-97.03080&radius=50&type=N0R&frame=1&num=10&delay=15&showstorms=10&lightning=1&showlabels=1&rainsnow=1&width=1005&height=700&newmaps=1
https://stillwaterweather.com/wxgraphic.php?type=banner_big

Looks like rain is done for okc metro. Got .2" compared to the 1-1/2" they were saying. Like they say a broken clock is right twice a day. Unbelievable

What? Have you looked at radar? Or forecast? Its raining hard now in far north OKC and coming in plus filling in. Gonna rain a lot tonight yet.

I got around .6 inch at my house so far.

Storms and cold bypass OKC. Am glad.

Looks like rain is done for okc metro. Got .2" compared to the 1-1/2" they were saying. Like they say a broken clock is right twice a day. Unbelievable

Its 4 ish in the morning and pouring down rain.....so, I'm thinking you are pessimistic.

Sorry, I was wrong. :cool:

Looks like most of the Metro picked up somewhere in the range of 0.25-0.75" of rain from the most recent event, which is fine I guess, but still not nearly as much as forecast, and it would have been nice to have a bigger rain event at the start of our traditional dry season (OKC averages less than 8" of rain between 11/1 and 2/28).

Cold front that will be arriving late tonight here in OK is currently blasting south through Nebraska. Our mild southerly winds will turn very cold from the north and will accompany cold rain showers. Overall precipitation amounts look very light for most of OK. Could get some sleet or freezing rain mixed in at the tail end later Monday evening.

The main story will be after skies clear late Monday night and arctic air is fully filtered in. Lows across the state will be in the teens here in OKC to start Tuesday morning. Winds will still be decent from the north which will make windchills dangerous.

You've gotta say, even though this has been a terrible fall in general, at least most of our nice days have coincided with the weekend. Yesterday and especially today have both been perfect.

Sort of the opposite of Spring 2018, which was not only terrible but also had most of the worst days coinciding with the weekend.

Certainly seems like (IMO) there's at least some risk of freezing drizzle or light freezing rain/sleet tomorrow mid-day. It may be marginal as to whether it can accrete on bridges and overpasses, but I'd at least use some caution given the possibility.

Short range models have increased precipitation for Monday afternoon into evening. Like mentioned by LokoAko, bridges will be the focus.

https://tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2019111100/nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_17.png

Some freezing drizzle out there now, but radar is not very impressive for anything substantial at this time. May get a few more blips toward lunchtime, but dangerous windchills will be the name of the game.

Roads were pretty much fine today, but man is it cold out. I somewhat unironically love how this city can have perfect weather and the worst weather in the entire world literally on back to back days.

NWS predicts we’ll break over 300 cold-weather records across US this week
https://cbs4indy.com/2019/11/11/data-from-nws-predicts-well-break-over-300-cold-weather-records-across-us-this-week/

The Oklahoma City NOAA weather is out of service. Hopefully, it will be back on soon.

Roads were pretty much fine today, but man is it cold out. I somewhat unironically love how this city can have perfect weather and the worst weather in the entire world literally on back to back days.

Really, here it was up to 76 one day and the next day down to 20.

Damon Lane has doubled down on a “slightly above average” winter temperature prediction yesterday. Seems like these guys struggle forecast winter weather a few days in advance let alone a long range forecast like that. What do you guys think? Warmer winter than average in store for us or is it bs?

Climate Prediction Center is forecasting above-average temperatures for December and January but obviously anytime you're more than 7-10 days out it's somewhat of a crapshoot. One thing that does look fairly safe to say is that we are not going to see any major cold snaps like the one we just had over the next week or two.

Beautiful weather continues into this week. Looks like rain chances return Wednesday evening with a piece of a storm system coming out of the west. Then the main storm comes through by Friday and may bring more rain.

Looking ahead to Thanksgiving, there may be a storm in the area that will bear watching for now.

Damon Lane has doubled down on a “slightly above average” winter temperature prediction yesterday. Seems like these guys struggle forecast winter weather a few days in advance let alone a long range forecast like that. What do you guys think? Warmer winter than average in store for us or is it bs?

Warmer. It's time for the winter months to be warmer than normal again.

Beautiful weather continues into this week. Looks like rain chances return Wednesday evening with a piece of a storm system coming out of the west. Then the main storm comes through by Friday and may bring more rain.

Looking ahead to Thanksgiving, there may be a storm in the area that will bear watching for now.


4 days later and the storm is still consistent. At this time it looks like potentially a winter storm for the panhandle area including maybe far NW OK, and cold rain for the points SE. Will monitor as we head toward Thanksgiving week.



https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2019112218/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_21.png



https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2019112212/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_23.png

The weather for Bedlam next weekend could be interesting, to say the least.

The weather for Bedlam next weekend could be interesting, to say the least.

If it rains during the game. But forecast only has .2" falling.

Tuesday we will be the day of strong winds. High fire danger basically everywhere.

Wednesday will be cool, but decent. Until that evening when the next piece of the storm comes through late that night into Thursday morning. This will be cold rain for majority of the state.

Friday we will likely get warmer temperatures ahead of the main storm. If enough instability moves in across the area, it could setup for a line of strong/severe thunderstorms.

Cold air filters down behind all of this and sets up for a weekend with highs in the low 40s.


The weather begins to rebound just in time for everyone to go back to work next week.

Rain moves in from the SW late tonight. Will be cold and overcast for Thanksgiving with off/on chances of rain showers, especially before lunchtime.

Friday severe storm chances have decreased some. SPC outline marginal risk (5%) for eastern half of OK.

Saturday and Sunday don't look as cold as initially thought earlier this week. Storm system is taking a further north track.

Late Wednesday into Thursday:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2019112712/nam3km_ref_frzn_scus_21.png