May touch 90F one more time on Wednesday here in OKC. Otherwise, perfect temperatures are arriving.

Tuesday: Storms will be across far W and NW OK.

Wednesday night into Thursday: We should see storms along I-44 corridor, possibly severe. Highs in OKC may not make 70F on Thursday

Weekend: Temperatures for the upcoming weekend look great, but rain chances may sneak in throughout. Right now they are somewhat low.

Next week: Looks like highs in 70s with lows in 50s, perhaps a night of upper 40s for a low around Tuesday.


Fall is coming.

I think think this has to be my favorite forecast from you yet.

^

Haha... No kidding.

I know it can stay warm well into fall but the combination of nearly-90 temps plus crazy high humidity has been unbearable. Cannot wait until it cools down and I can actually turn off my a/c.

But I did see a hint of another warmup after this cool stretch is over.

I don't know if this is a stat that anyone actually keeps track of but this has to be one of the most humid years in OKC history.

Decided to do some quick calculations to satisfy my curiosity on the humidity thing. This is from Mesonet.

January: Average = 62% | 2019 = 70%
February: Average = 64% | 2019 = 75%
March: Average = 60% | 2019 = 64%
April: Average = 62% | 2019 = 66%
May: Average = 69% | 2019 = 77%
June: Average = 68% | 2019 = 74%
July: Average = 64% | 2019 = 66%
August: Average = 65% | 2019 = 70%
September: Average = 66% | 2019 = 71%

So...not great. Looks like the last month with below average humidity here was May 2018.

Decided to do some quick calculations to satisfy my curiosity on the humidity thing. This is from Mesonet.

January: Average = 62% | 2019 = 70%
February: Average = 64% | 2019 = 75%
March: Average = 60% | 2019 = 64%
April: Average = 62% | 2019 = 66%
May: Average = 69% | 2019 = 77%
June: Average = 68% | 2019 = 74%
July: Average = 64% | 2019 = 66%
August: Average = 65% | 2019 = 70%
September: Average = 66% | 2019 = 71%

So...not great. Looks like the last month with below average humidity here was May 2018.

Thanks for the stats thats interesting. Thing is here we are either wanting humidity to break drought or wanting drought to break humidity so to speak. Low humidity means less moisture and then more fire danger. And high means we had a lot of rain.

Also it seems the seasons are all 1 month late. Winter seemed to drag out and then spring was flooding and lasted thru end of Jun. Now summer lasting thru Sep. Lets hope we don’t lose that month and haves some nice fall weather extended too.

Yeah something like Fall 2016 would be ideal, where Sep/Oct/Nov were all above normal. Hoping we avoid the inverse of Spring 2018, where April was 6.6 degrees below normal and May was 4.3 degrees above normal...

Thanks for the stats thats interesting. Thing is here we are either wanting humidity to break drought or wanting drought to break humidity so to speak. Low humidity means less moisture and then more fire danger. And high means we had a lot of rain.

Also it seems the seasons are all 1 month late. Winter seemed to drag out and then spring was flooding and lasted thru end of Jun. Now summer lasting thru Sep. Lets hope we don’t lose that month and haves some nice fall weather extended too.

I think we have to just realize a shirt has occurred and what we know as “winter” is no longer confined to December-February, same for summer in May-September. Winter across the central US seems to last longer into spring and starts later in the fall.

Chance of rain in C OK for Thursday has gone down significantly from last post. It looks like the corridor for all of the rain and storms will be further NW. Temperature relief is still in play for all.


https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2019100206/nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_28.png


https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2019100206/nam3km_T2m_scus_40.png

Today is the "true" last day of summer. Shouldn't see long stretches of upper 80's until next spring.

Finally. We suffered long enough.

A pretty significant cold front is on the way for mid-next week (Oct 10-11), looks like some decent storm chances as well. The models are even showing temps possibly in the 50's for kickoff at OU/TX

SPC outlining 15% probability of severe storms impacting I-44 corridor and points east on Thursday afternoon. This will be the first major cold front of the season.

Temperatures Thursday will reach 80s with high humidity. Friday will be temperatures in the 40s and 50s with a blasting north wind.

Short-Range models suggesting a localized area of severe storms developing across SW OK later this evening. SPC outlining SLIGHT risk for all of SW OK to just the edge of the OKC metro. If sunshine comes out and heats things up more across OKC, the risk will likely be expanded a bit north and east.

If storms are to develop, they have a good shot at being severe and potentially supercell in nature. They will be moving very quickly off to the NE. Tornado parameter is low at 2%. Hail and wind gust damage is primary concern.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2019100912/nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_15.png

Severe thunderstorm watch out for most of the western half of Oklahoma, including Oklahoma City until 3 am.

https://scontent-dfw5-2.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/72468018_2749426091774442_1811207873594654720_n.jp g?_nc_cat=109&_nc_oc=AQmoYo8hDeWY5U8vHTNSxwTBSN9VWkcr2s9GJBUy2Rc 4vx9ESb-xumpX7v8rPdjdFWc&_nc_ht=scontent-dfw5-2.xx&oh=e388e4b0be509eb8035fce77fcb20f85&oe=5E1B00C2

9:00 AM: Cold front appears to be just west of Kingfisher and screaming southeast. Would guess it blows through the northwest side of the metro around 11 and be through the area no later than 2pm. Also think the severe weather threat might be limited with the front moving faster than expected.

Here comes fall!

15655

This cold front looks brutal. Won't be fun to be outside in a couple of hours.

This cold front looks brutal. Won't be fun to be outside in a couple of hours.

It's affecting a large part of the mid section of the country: 'Historic' winter storm could bring up to 2 feet of snow to central and western USA

FREEZE WATCH:

Areas Affected:
Alfalfa - Atoka - Beckham - Blaine - Bryan - Caddo - Canadian - Carter - Cleveland - Coal - Comanche - Cotton - Custer - Dewey - Garfield - Garvin - Grady - Grant - Greer - Harmon - Hughes - Jackson - Jefferson - Johnston - Kay - Kingfisher - Kiowa - Lincoln - Logan - Love - Major - Marshall - McClain - Murray - Noble - Oklahoma - Payne - Pontotoc - Pottawatomie - Seminole - Stephens - Tillman - Was hita

Effective: Sat, 10/12 3:00am Updated: Thu, 10/10 8:09pm Urgency: Future
Expires: Sat, 10/12 9:00am Severity: Moderate Certainty: Possible

Details:
...FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...
* WHAT...Sub-freezing temperatures as low as 30 possible.
* WHERE...Central, east central, northern, northwest, southeast,
southern, southwest and western Oklahoma and northern Texas.
* WHEN...From late Friday night through Saturday morning.
* IMPACTS...Frost and freeze conditions could kill crops, other
sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor
plumbing.

Information:
Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold. To prevent
freezing and possible bursting of outdoor water pipes they should
be wrapped, drained, or allowed to drip slowly. Those that have
in-ground sprinkler systems should drain them and cover above-
ground pipes to protect them from freezing

This cold front looks brutal. Won't be fun to be outside in a couple of hours.

At my house in Denver, 83 at 2pm, 19 and sleeting at 10pm on Wednesday. 3 inches of snow Thursday!

At my house in Denver, 83 at 2pm, 19 and sleeting at 10pm on Wednesday. 3 inches of snow Thursday!

Going to Red Rocks for a concert in early November. I was wary of the weather being an outside concert. Still have my fingers crossed.

At my house in Denver, 83 at 2pm, 19 and sleeting at 10pm on Wednesday. 3 inches of snow Thursday!

Denver bottomed out at 9 degrees on Friday, crushing the previous record low for that date of 22 set in 1946. This was an absolutely epic early season polar Front.

See some posts about real deal severe weather chances next Sunday/Monday for a large part of the state.

See some posts about real deal severe weather chances next Sunday/Monday for a large part of the state.

SPC outlined 15% for Sunday across E and SE OK. C OK looks to be too far west for storm initiation. I will update if any of this changes.

Otherwise enjoy the beautiful fall weather. Warmer and closer to 80 over the weekend ahead of the storm mentioned above. The storm will knock us back into 60s and low 70s for next week.

SPC outlined 15% for Sunday across E and SE OK. C OK looks to be too far west for storm initiation. I will update if any of this changes.

Otherwise enjoy the beautiful fall weather. Warmer and closer to 80 over the weekend ahead of the storm mentioned above. The storm will knock us back into 60s and low 70s for next week.

And looks like short sleeve weather Friday evening for OSU's homecoming walkaround. High sunny 77.

Very slim chance of a few passing light showers this evening with a weak low pressure system passing to the north. I wouldn't change any plans, just watch radar for a quick sprinkle or two.

Saturday will be light winds from the north and beautifully sunny, low 70s.

Sunday will feel like spring with strong south winds and warm temperatures pressing low 80s.

Next week looks fantastic still.

Here is a shot of the sprinkles this evening:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/rgem/2019101812/rgem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_18.png

Increasing likelihood of storms this evening for the OKC area, with the southern and eastern portions of the Metro having the best chance. It'll be a close call as to whether or not we can get enough moisture return for anything to fire before the cold front moves through, but the latest hi-res models basically show stuff firing right along the I-35 corridor around 8-10 p.m. and then quickly moving east.

I got 1.5” in far NW OKC. Had some close lightening strikes causing quick power outages which required clock, cable and coffee maker resets. Had hail too. Best rain in awhile

[QUOTE=OKC Guy;1092807]I got 1.5” in far NW OKC. Had some close lightening strikes causing quick power outages which required clock, cable and coffee maker resets. Had hail too. Best rain in awhile[/QUO
Had a whopping .02 here in the Dough-nut hole known as Midwest city

Had a nice storm a few miles north of Downtown. Lots of lightning, and probably some borderline severe wind gusts. Not a lot of rain as I was on the very south end of the line and it blew through quite quickly, but probably more rain than the rest of October combined at my apartment.

Hopefully we get one or two good soaking rain events before we enter our traditional winter dry period.

Cold rain on the way for large majority of the state.

Should begin seeing rain and storms develop late tonight in a corridor just east of I-44. Light rain and mist likely for points further west toward OKC. Eventually some rain and storms will develop likely overhead for OKC just before sunrise. Then a break by mid-morning. Development of heavier rain later on Thursday afternoon across all of W and C OK as the upper-level low begins to push out of the TX PH. Rain is not likely to be too heavy, but it is likely to be light-to-moderate and very persistent. This is a slow moving storm and rain and mist will likely last into Friday morning.

Temperatures for Thursday and Friday are likely to stay in the lower 50s.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2019102312/nam3km_ref_frzn_scus_36.png

Got a decent amount of small hail at my place just now.

3.14" of rain so far at my house for this event (near 9th & Bryant in Edmond).

Parts of NW Oklahoma got over a foot of snow yesterday.

We should see a very cold rain develop this late Tuesday afternoon. Best chances are along and especially east of I-44 corridor. I think light passing showers and drizzle will be name of the game for OKC. Overnight temperatures will fall to mid 30s, any frozen precipitation should remain NW of OKC.

Same deal with Wednesday as the main storm pushes out of CO.

We should clear out Wednesday night into Thursday resulting in lows dropping into the 20s for a large part of the state. Trick-or-treaters will need jackets Thursday night with temperatures in the 30s after sunset.

Friday and Saturday look nice with highs in the 50s as we head into November.

Very light snow flurries and sleet reported around C OK. Could last into the overnight, but no impacts expected.

Skies are already clearing across SW OK, and this will spread into C OK later tonight. This will allow temperatures to fall into the 20s resulting in the first hard freeze.

Definitely saw a few flurries in NW OKC (around NW 36th and May) a couple hours ago.

To end October's weather thread, the nation during early October had record breaking heat, while late October had record breaking cold: https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/October-2019-Month-Extreme-Weather-US?cm_ven=cat6-widget

OKC finished with a colder average temperature than Boston and Cleveland (among other cities) for October. Pretty remarkable.