Starting June thread because the last two May days will be fantastic with highs in the 80s and sunshine, with minimal wind.

This weekend will be more of the same, but some NW flow kicks in as early as late Saturday night. This means storms out in SE CO and SW KS that start form into MCSes that push SE and eventually die out. Some nights, these will make it deep into OK, some nights they die out up in NW OK. It is pretty random and difficult to forecast.

That pattern looks to stick around for majority of first week of June.

Snapshot of late Saturday night into early Sunday morning hours of a dying MCS draped across the state.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2019053112/namconus_ref_frzn_scus_39.png

Snapshot of late Saturday night into early Sunday morning hours of a dying MCS draped across the state.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2019053112/namconus_ref_frzn_scus_39.png

Aren't we getting close to something along the lines of a Derecho? I remember in 2004 my family was leaving town on a vacation in San Antonio, and a derecho from KS came into OKC early and we bailed out of town really early, about a half-hour ahead of it....

Ugh and the weather guys on TV make it sound like its going to rain the rain of Noah this weekend.

Isn't the jet stream moving North? Isn't that the magical thing about June that immediately eliminates our nasty storms? It if moves far enough North these storms have no chance of surviving into OK? Why does Mesonet and Weather Channel show persistent chances till the middle of the month? People keep talking about "summer patterns" settling in but that does not appear to be the case.

Isn't the jet stream moving North? Isn't that the magical thing about June that immediately eliminates our nasty storms? It if moves far enough North these storms have no chance of surviving into OK? Why does Mesonet and Weather Channel show persistent chances till the middle of the month? People keep talking about "summer patterns" settling in but that does not appear to be the case.

Overnight MCS clusters out of the northwest is very common and expected in June. It's the jet stream shift that typically stops the dryline setups that May is known for.

Isn't the jet stream moving North? Isn't that the magical thing about June that immediately eliminates our nasty storms? It if moves far enough North these storms have no chance of surviving into OK? Why does Mesonet and Weather Channel show persistent chances till the middle of the month? People keep talking about "summer patterns" settling in but that does not appear to be the case.

You're confusing two different meteorological setups.

The jet stream that has moved north is one of the essential steering currents that can allow storms to become severe, rotating as they ascend. The mere absence if the jet doesn't eliminate the possibility of precipitation. All you need for that is contrasting airmasses.

This time of year, early June, the pattern changes from a Southwest flow, where low pressure systems "eject" of the desert southwest and move northeast. That steering current has moved more northerly, producing a very seasonal west/northwesterly flow. Large convergence areas form in the upper plains and head south or southeast toward Oklahoma. The areas of precipitation can be very broad and slow-moving, and last a long time. That's where you can get the soakers.

The *severe* risk is lower in this time of year because those steering currents that make those individual "cellular" storms is absent. That's why you get long lines of storms, rather than supercells, and those lines can be slow movers. That's where you hear the jargony "MCS" term - all that means is a large area of thunderstorms (Mesoscale Convective System).

This lasts the first part of June, and then you start looking for the "ridges of doom" - the big, blocking high pressure regions that lock in drier, hotter weather and keep storms out of the area. Just have to see how that evolves.

So apparently these storms from way out west are actually going to make it to OKC this afternoon. Initial gust of wind and heavy rain is main threat. Should not last long, but enough to interrupt Saturday plans.

So in effect we are done with severe weather and tornadoes for the year, just getting rain from now on?

There is literally a line of severe storms coming in right now from the NW.

So in effect we are done with severe weather and tornadoes for the year, just getting rain from now on?

The definition of a severe thunderstorm goes beyond tornadoes. We had some pretty expensive damaging hail events in July in the past. You just never know. Tornado is significantly lower now, but not zero.

Torrential rain and high winds in NW OKC. Really came in fast.

This little cluster already heading out. Sunshine will be back out shortly. But we already have tonight’s storms developing out in the panhandle. This will be another MCS that tracks across NW into C OK and slowly dies out.

Weather channel shows rain and storm chances till mid month. I though people were saying this stuff is all outta here within first week of June. Mesonet has chances for 7 days. What gives?

Weather channel shows rain and storm chances till mid month. I though people were saying this stuff is all outta here within first week of June. Mesonet has chances for 7 days. What gives?

No. Only you have been saying that...

Does this dude even read the posts here? Just looked at his post history and all he does is post his own desires about weather items and political topics here. Clearly approaching troll territory.

More random chances at afternoon storms today and tomorrow. Best shot is probably out in E OK.

Better chances for majority of state for Wednesday evening and Thursday this week.

Does this dude even read the posts here? Just looked at his post history and all he does is post his own desires about weather items and political topics here. Clearly approaching troll territory.

More random chances at afternoon storms today and tomorrow. Best shot is probably out in E OK.

Better chances for majority of state for Wednesday evening and Thursday this week.

Nope. It's a bot that makes OkcTalk a laughingstock on a daily basis. A simple captcha when posting would be the end. I keep reporting his spam but TPTB seem to find it amusing.

Copy pasted from May's Discussion, shiny new member so my post was delayed a while.


Good morning, long time reader first time poster.

Here's a little thing I spun up yesterday from this idea:
https://discord.gg/vxFqEfY

Nothing overly complicated and if Discord is not the preferred setup then I can easily take it down, but it exists out in the internet now
05-30-2019

Some stout cumulus going up west of OKC, these will likely turn into random thunderstorms over the new few hours and die out with sunset. Movement will be very random and storms will pulse up and down. Flash flooding is main threat, other wise maybe some strong wind gusts with collapsing thunderstorms.

FLOOD WATCH
Areas Affected:
Garfield - Grant - Kay - Lincoln - Logan - Noble - Oklahoma - Payne and other counties mapped in green.
Effective: Thu, 6/6 2:48am Updated: Thu, 6/6 4:06am Urgency: Future
Expires: Sat, 6/8 4:00am Severity: Moderate Certainty: Possible

Details:

...Localized Flash Flooding and River Flooding Possible...
.Training storms will result in prolonged periods of moderate
to heavy rainfall potentially leading to flash flooding and river
flooding across north central and central Oklahoma.
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...
The National Weather Service in Norman has issued a
* Flood Watch for flash flooding...flooding of creeks and
rivers...and flooding of low lying areas for portions of
central Oklahoma and northern Oklahoma, including the
following areas, in central Oklahoma, Lincoln, Logan,
Oklahoma, and Payne. In northern Oklahoma, Garfield, Grant,
Kay, and Noble.
* Through Friday morning
* Numerous showers and storms with moderate to heavy rainfall will
persist over the watch area through early Friday morning.
Localized flash flooding and river flooding will be possible.
Precautionary/preparedness actions...
A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on
current forecasts.
You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible
Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be
prepared to take action should flooding develop.

Counties in green covered:

https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/png/oun.png

Flash Flood Warning for essentially all of OKC. Storms are developing as the low is coming across I-40. These rain and storms will be slow moving and pulse up and down in intensity across very localized areas. There could be drastic differences in amounts across all of C OK.

I’m over the rain. Way too okseattle out here

Some big time flooding in west side metro...

1532315324

I have to imagine this being pretty frustrating for farmers this year.

The Weather Channel is showing live feeds from KFOR of flooding and a water rescue.

I-44 is underwater at 29th st.

I have to imagine this being pretty frustrating for farmers this year.

You have no idea and I just farm as a hobby on a small scale 40 acre farm... I had planted winter wheat to use a a green manure crop in a 1/2 acre berry patch I'm planting and it was ready to harvest by the time I got it tilled in last weekend.... So it turned into more of a golden manure crop for me.

We have a CSA share for a farm in Edmond and they are having a heck of a time getting stuff in the ground.

Up to 59.4" of rain at the OKC East Mesonet site in the last calendar year. Average over the past 15 years has been 36.6". Possibly even more impressive is Weatherford at 54.7" when they average less than 30" per year.

Up to 59.4" of rain at the OKC East Mesonet site in the last calendar year. Average over the past 15 years has been 36.6". Possibly even more impressive is Weatherford at 54.7" when they average less than 30" per year.

Wow! For reference tropical rainforest-type annual precipitation is 80" annually.

http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/realtime/rainrfc.8760hr.png

Adding to totals this AM in NW OKC. Pretty good thunderstorm rolling thru and looks like more diving in from the NW. Lots of lightening but so far no hail.

It is black as night right now.

I'm not sure I've ever seen it this dark during daylight hours.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jUgBAWLF1Eo

Judging by radar and spotter reports, pretty much the entire core looks to have gotten anywhere from marble to ping pong ball sized hail. That was a crazy storm.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jUgBAWLF1Eo

I was out early this morning as it came rolling in and noticed the same thing. It was like night time.

Mesonet showing about 1" at the Yukon station, but the ol' Backyardonet showing just under 3"!

https://i.imgur.com/IPSRy31.jpg?1

^I’d guess we had in that range in far NW OKC....pool us WAY up.

I've heard reports of lots of wind damage around Norman, tree limbs down everywhere

Sounds like the damage in Deer Creek might have been a small spin-up tornado.

I believe the 164th & Rockwell damage was due to a micro burst.

This is what good old Facebook thinks:

https://scontent-dfw5-2.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/fr/cp0/e15/q65/62205928_10162064792815171_168344292593500160_n.jp g?_nc_cat=102&efg=eyJpIjoidCJ9&_nc_oc=AQngFfpEYaLSEZ031RQ3q_Fuae51XYBmYTA1vgTgRG2 25dPLTKeLyWYgIo4Hp04hHWs&_nc_ht=scontent-dfw5-2.xx&oh=94e8f2eeb4ba732ffb99a2b5df26b591&oe=5D7E32E8

I wouldn’t be surprised. I left the house at 178th and May about 5 minutes prior and it looked like there were some low fast rotating clouds sticking below that storm.

I was looking at the special topic tab on the nws site about late first 90 degree days. It may be late June early July before we hit 90. No 90 degrees forecast this week.

This morning feels more like Colorado than Okla! Fantastic!:)

Let it be known that 2019 will be the year of no summer.

Beautiful weather all week, Highs in the 80s, lows in 60s and even some upper 50s.

Low chance of rain on Wednesday with another front that will come through, but right now it does not look like precipitation with it will be too significant as we have dry air in place.

Rain and storm chances will be back later this week into the weekend with more NW flow. Much like the last two weeks, we will have chances at catching MCSes coming out of CO/KS/TX. At this time, it looks like flooding could be a concern this weekend.

Let it be known that 2019 will be the year of no summer.



Or the year of the ark.

I'm wondering if solar minimum does affect climate at least to some small degree. I did read something about how cosmic radiation can possibly increase cloud cover by around like 2% or something like that. When the sun is more active it actually pushes cosmic radiation away from Earth.

Besides Earth climate, kind of bad timing that NASA is planning a Moon and Mars push during a solar min because this same radiation decreases the amount of the time astronauts can spend in space so while we can probably still do a prolonged moon mission there is no way were doing Mars within the next 8-10 years.

Let it be known that 2019 will be the year of no summer.



#knocksonwood Pleeeasse don't jinx us!

Let it be known that 2019 will be the year of no summer.
From your lips to God's ears!

Short-Range models bringing the small cluster of storms in S KS into OK overnight. Looks like it will make a run for C OK after midnight.


https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2019061200/nam3km_ref_frzn_scus_8.png

Short-Range models bringing the small cluster of storms in S KS into OK overnight. Looks like it will make a run for C OK after midnight.


https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2019061200/nam3km_ref_frzn_scus_8.png

YAAAAAAAYYYYYYYYYY, more rain! Just what we needed.

pretty crazy lighting on the turnpike this morning

Slight chance of storms in C OK late tonight with a dying MCS that will come out of the panhandle, all dependent on if it survives long enough to reach us this far east. Similar thing for Saturday into Sunday, with a chance at those storms developing closer to OK, thus a slight severe threat.

Special note. OKC has still yet to record a 90F High this year. This Saturday could be close as we will have strong south winds returning heading into this weekend. If we can remain cloudy, we may only reach upper 80s and keep the streak going. If we get past Saturday without hitting 90, we will officially be in the top 7 years with the latest first 90 degree day. This will put us in company with years from the late 1800s and early 1900s. Currently year #8 is June 15, 1978.


https://www.weather.gov/images/oun/graphicast/image_full7.png

A slight chance storms come across out of SW KS overnight tonight. Mainly across NC OK.

Saturday night into Sunday chance of more storms, this time possibly severe. Sunday we could see localized areas of flash flooding wherever storms occur. I would say Sunday afternoon into evening is best chance here in C OK.

All of next week looks like slight chances of storms basically anywhere in the state. Main focus will likely be across NC and NE OK. We could have several rounds of dying MCS and storm clusters moving about each day.

Remember, if we don't hit 90F on Saturday or Sunday here in OKC, we will likely be getting 2019 into the record top of the records books.

A slight chance storms come across out of SW KS overnight tonight. Mainly across NC OK.

Saturday night into Sunday chance of more storms, this time possibly severe. Sunday we could see localized areas of flash flooding wherever storms occur. I would say Sunday afternoon into evening is best chance here in C OK.

All of next week looks like slight chances of storms basically anywhere in the state. Main focus will likely be across NC and NE OK. We could have several rounds of dying MCS and storm clusters moving about each day.

Remember, if we don't hit 90F on Saturday or Sunday here in OKC, we will likely be getting 2019 into the record top of the records books.

2019 into the top of the record books in what category?

2019 into the top of the record books in what category?

Longest time to record a 90 degree high. IMO, we're probably 60/40 to hit 90 degrees tomorrow. If we do, we'll be tied for the 10th longest time. If we don't, we'll probably wait until Wednesday or Thursday for our first 90 degree day, which would either put us with the 6th or 7th longest streak.

Regardless of records, its nice...

Regardless of records, its nice...

I'm sick of the duck weather. Bring on the heat dome of doom.

I'm sick of the duck weather. Bring on the heat dome of doom.
No thanks. That **** sucks.

I'm sick of the duck weather. Bring on the heat dome of doom.

I'm sick of the heat dome. Bring on the cooler temps.

I'm sick of the heat dome. Bring on the cooler temps.

But we haven't had a heat dome this year. The post you are quoting is wanting to have one, for some asinine reason.