View Full Version : General Weather Discussion - May 2019



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d-usa
05-25-2019, 10:59 PM
Tornadoes hitting OKC.

OKC Guy
05-25-2019, 11:18 PM
El Reno hit hard

Fairgrounds to Capitol to Zoo as well

d-usa
05-25-2019, 11:22 PM
Lake Thunderbird area now.

OKC Guy
05-25-2019, 11:34 PM
El Reno Councilwoman confirms fatalities at hotel.

OKC Guy
05-25-2019, 11:59 PM
Damage at 12th/Portland

Damage at 23rd/Classen

Bellaboo
05-26-2019, 09:53 AM
Panhandle didn't get in on the flooding the rest of Oklahoma got.

sacolton
05-26-2019, 08:01 PM
Looks like another huge line of storms developing in the west.

Bits_Of_Real_Panther
05-26-2019, 11:44 PM
Damage at 12th/Portland

Damage at 23rd/Classen

Question:

This is the area around gatewood/ NW 23rd and Classen...

The damage to Mutts, Trinity Church, Rainbow records building, was that technically a low grade tornado or just " a spin up ", or was it like "strong, straight line gust front winds" ?

All of the above?

TIA.

Anonymous.
05-28-2019, 11:24 AM
SPC has upgraded to Enhanced Risk across most of C OK and up into NE OK.

Should see storms develop just west of I-35 corridor this afternoon. Guessing around 6-7pm for OKC area. Tornado probabilities are low, around 5%. Main threat will be hail and flash flooding. There is a chance of exceptionally large hail with any cells that remain discrete with strong updraft rotation.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2019052815/hrrr_ref_frzn_scus_9.png

Anonymous.
05-28-2019, 03:01 PM
Tornado Watch is out for all of C OK. Probability of 2 or more tornadoes is 60%.

Crisp CU field is evidenced on satellite and we should see storm initiation around 5pm.

Ginkasa
05-28-2019, 03:12 PM
Tornado Watch is out for all of C OK. Probability of 2 or more tornadoes is 60%.

Crisp CU field is evidenced on satellite and we should see storm initiation around 5pm.

CU FIELD- Cumulus clouds covering a large spatial area.

http://www.theweatherprediction.com/jargon/

To save anyone else the Google.

SoonerDave
05-28-2019, 03:22 PM
CU FIELD- Cumulus clouds covering a large spatial area.

http://www.theweatherprediction.com/jargon/

To save anyone else the Google.
Just means that a broad area of cloud development has started in an area that is favorable for transition from plain cumulus clouds into thunderstorms (cumulonimbus clouds).

Anonymous.
05-28-2019, 03:56 PM
Nice shear profiles for supercells present across the area. I have highlighted the area where storms will develop in current CU field. I poorly attempted to show with colorful arrows how the wind at different levels of the atmosphere will induce supercell development due to wind shear. I tried placing the arrows where you can kind of see the direction clouds are being blown at various heights.

Blue arrow is surface winds coming in from the SE.
Pink arrow is mid-level winds coming in from the SW.
Green arrow is upper-levels screaming in from the WSW.

https://i.imgur.com/dnJNCCL.png

http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/upper/oun.gif

EDIT: Had my colors wrong for initial post.

soonerguru
05-28-2019, 04:04 PM
Nice shear profiles for supercells present across the area. I have highlighted the area where storms will develop in current CU field. I poorly attempted to show with colorful arrows how the wind at different levels of the atmosphere will induce supercell development due to wind shear. I tried placing the arrows where you can kind of see the direction clouds are being blown at various heights.

Blue arrow is surface winds coming in from the SE.
Pink arrow is mid-level winds coming in from the SW.
Green arrow is upper-levels screaming in from the WSW.

https://i.imgur.com/dnJNCCL.png

http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/upper/oun.gif

EDIT: Had my colors wrong for initial post.

Cumulous towers going up now at 4 p.m. in northern Caddo County near Hinton. Cumulous going up west of El Reno.

Anonymous.
05-28-2019, 05:25 PM
Storm coming into El Reno is going to be serious business from the looks of it.


CHAT: for the first 10 people who want to chat. If anyone can find something that allows more guests and is simple, please advise lol.

https://chatroll.com/embed/chat/wxstuff-live-chat?name=wxstuff-live-chat

camrun91
05-28-2019, 05:32 PM
Anon why do you not just have a running slack group?

Anonymous.
05-28-2019, 05:38 PM
Anon why do you not just have a running slack group?

I am not sure what this means.

All storms appear to be remaining discrete at this time. We could have several paths of significant hail coming into C OK heading into sunset.

d-usa
05-28-2019, 05:46 PM
Have you ever considered using discord to run a room?

camrun91
05-28-2019, 05:53 PM
Have you ever considered using discord to run a room?
Discord and slack are both chat clients. Target both have free options.

turnpup
05-28-2019, 06:06 PM
Maybe we remind Anon about Discord and Slack after this stuff is over. He's probably a bit preoccupied at the moment! :)

Anonymous.
05-28-2019, 06:13 PM
OKC metro majority population may get split. Storms directly WSW are struggling.

jn1780
05-28-2019, 06:26 PM
OKC metro majority population may get split. Storms directly WSW are struggling.

Yeah, OKC dodged the hail.

Anonymous.
05-28-2019, 06:43 PM
Storms in OK are just severe at this time. Two main cells Rush Springs and Guthrie. No further development likely until morning with the low ejecting, but that will mainly be across S, SE, and E OK. C OK could see morning storms.


Right now on-going there is likely the tornado of the year occurring E of Lawrence Kansas heading NE towards KC. Large wedge tornado.

Anonymous.
05-28-2019, 07:02 PM
If anyone wants to feel blessed by the weather coverage in OKC. Just try to tune into one of the local Kansas City stations. Their technology and coverage is pathetic compared to here. There is a literal tornado emergency with a large wedge tornado moving into their largest populated city and they are taking commercial breaks and have nearly zero live video coverage.

Anonymous.
05-28-2019, 07:11 PM
Both OK cells are now tornado warned. Going in towards Perkins, OK. And also Lindsay, OK.

SoonerDave
05-28-2019, 07:12 PM
If anyone wants to feel blessed by the weather coverage in OKC. Just try to tune into one of the local Kansas City stations. Their technology and coverage is pathetic compared to here. There is a literal tornado emergency with a large wedge tornado moving into their largest populated city and they are taking commercial breaks and have nearly zero live video coverage.

KMBC is wall-to-wall and former Ch 9 met Nick Bender is among their live chasers. Storm is huge with amazing feeder bands, passing just across I70...

C_M_25
05-28-2019, 07:19 PM
Those Kansas City meteorologists look like amateurs compared to the Oklahoma mets. They had some of the most amazing radar signatures for a tornado I’ve seen and they barely show it or talk about it. Crazy.

Easy180
05-28-2019, 07:36 PM
Well, did us OKC area folks miss the last of the real deal severe chances until next April/May?

C_M_25
05-28-2019, 07:42 PM
Historically, our tornado threat usually goes down into June, but we do occasionally see severe weather and tornadoes in June. Don’t forget that we have a second tornado season in the fall although it’s not as bad.

SoonerDave
05-28-2019, 08:03 PM
Tornado in KC area did considerable damage; several homes destroyed, KMBC newschopper is flying over damaged areas. No reports of injuries, but it'd be hard to imagine the damage without at least some injury.

jn1780
05-28-2019, 08:15 PM
Well, did us OKC area folks miss the last of the real deal severe chances until next April/May?

It looks like summertime pattern starting to build in. The expanded SPC outlook is pretty quiet. I think now it's about leftover MCS clusters coming from the northwest. Then in July/August there are popup thunderstorms with large hail we have to watch out for.

Ian Drake
05-28-2019, 09:25 PM
Looking at the weather channel there are rain/storm chances for much of the next 15 days. When does *actual summer* begin and all rain/storm chances go away? Any sign of ridging showing up long term? Tired of this storm every day crap.

Sharona21
05-28-2019, 09:36 PM
Looking at the weather channel there are rain/storm chances for much of the next 15 days. When does *actual summer* begin and all rain/storm chances go away? Any sign of ridging showing up long term? Tired of this storm every day crap.

You are not alone! We are thinking about leaving Oklahoma after living here all our lives. 60 plus years. Don't forget what president Johnson said, "if yo can control the weather, you can control the world".

Sharona21
05-28-2019, 10:10 PM
You are not alone! We are thinking about leaving Oklahoma after living here all our lives. 60 plus years. Don't forget what president Johnson said, "if you can control the weather, you can control the world".!!

Bunty
05-28-2019, 11:03 PM
This damp weather is easier to put up with than day after day of 100+ degree weather that went on and on some summers back. Nobody who hadn't spent summers in the desert had ever experienced anything like it.

Ian Drake
05-29-2019, 12:52 AM
So like are we actually really done with the big deal severe days here in the metro or is that just wishful thinking?

SoonerDave
05-29-2019, 06:44 AM
Looking at the weather channel there are rain/storm chances for much of the next 15 days. When does *actual summer* begin and all rain/storm chances go away? Any sign of ridging showing up long term? Tired of this storm every day crap.

We have an annual pattern of spring rains leading into the drier, hotter summer months that hits fairly reliably. I havent seen anything suggesting we won't eventually see the same thing this year...maybe not 110 degree heat (be really hard to get that kind of air temps with the ground moisture content), but enough where people will people will be wishing for fall :)

WhoRepsTheLurker
05-29-2019, 08:05 AM
So like are we actually really done with the big deal severe days here in the metro or is that just wishful thinking?

Like all of your posts, it's wishful thinking...

Anonymous.
05-29-2019, 08:19 AM
Storms are developing now. These will mostly be contained to S and E sections of the state as mentioned before. But we could still see some rain or maybe a storm or two clip OKC, especially SE sides.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2019052912/hrrr_ref_frzn_scus_5.png

Ian Drake
05-29-2019, 09:34 AM
Zero threat of tornados or severe stuff??? No *gotcha* type stuff? How about the rest of the season?

Anonymous.
05-29-2019, 09:42 AM
Some of this morning's storms could be severe, but the biggest threat will be across SE OK. An isolated tornadic storm is not out of the questions down there.

Rest of season is too tough of a call, but this exceptionally stormy pattern looks to be ending in the short-term.

Bunty
05-29-2019, 11:25 AM
I wouldn't let my guard down for June. The worst of the two tornadoes that have hit Stillwater since 1975 happened on June 15, 1990. Surely, there have been other noteworthy June tornadoes in Oklahoma. Forecast this June looks like it will be like May.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/30day/off14_temp.gif

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/30day/off14_prcp.gif

stile99
05-29-2019, 04:52 PM
So like are we actually really done with the big deal severe days here in the metro or is that just wishful thinking?

Today is not your day, bot, but if you keep posting the same thing day after day, you'll get there eventually. Broken record/clock and whatnot.

Bobby821
05-29-2019, 05:14 PM
Looks like we get back into Southwest flow again around the middle of next week. So the severe weather pattern we have been in since the middle of May will be alive and kickin again soon enough!!

okatty
05-29-2019, 08:12 PM
Well....I for one am looking forward to a couple of beautiful days.

Lets play 36!

Bunty
05-30-2019, 03:01 AM
El Reno tornado discussed near end of article: https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/End-Sight-Stunning-Spell-Severe-Weather?cm_ven=cat6-widget

snark0leptic
05-30-2019, 08:14 AM
Maybe we remind Anon about Discord and Slack after this stuff is over. He's probably a bit preoccupied at the moment! :)

Good morning, long time reader first time poster.

Here's a little thing I spun up yesterday from this idea:
https://discord.gg/vxFqEfY

Nothing overly complicated and if Discord is not the preferred setup then I can easily take it down, but it exists out in the internet now.

NikonNurse
05-31-2019, 08:36 PM
Looking at the weather channel there are rain/storm chances for much of the next 15 days. When does *actual summer* begin and all rain/storm chances go away? Any sign of ridging showing up long term? Tired of this storm every day crap.

June is our wettest month of the year.