Storms are redeveloping now. If they can get established before full sundown, they could make a run at the metro.

Supercells lining up now from Chickasha back into NW TX.

Chat has spots left if anyone wants to join.

https://chatroll.com/embed/chat/wxstuff-live-chat?name=wxstuff-live-chat

Storms can’t overcome the shear high up in the atmosphere. Look to see them die out with sundown.

What needs to really happen is for no more rain in the Kaw and Keystone lake basins. Even at 215,000 cfs both are still taking in more water than they are letting out. Keystone is taking in 250,000 cfs right now.

The catastrophic 1986 flood in Tulsa peaked at Keystone releasing 307,000 cfs.

The City of Tulsa is now preparing for the worst case scenario which is a 300,000 cfs release. This will affect a lot of people in the Tulsa area and downstream, and could end up being one of the costliest disasters in the state's history when it's all over.

Serious situation developing along the Arkansas River near Webber’s Falls. Two large barges broke loose near Muskogee and are drifting downstream towards lock and dam 16 up river from Webber’s Falls. No tug boats available to wrangle the loose barges. If these impact that dam and damage it, Webber’s Falls could be in serious trouble.

Channel 9 sent out a flash that the I-40 bridge over the Arkansas River has been closed.

Tracking the different sets of storms coming into the metro was weird. Looked at the radar and there were three back-to-back storms past Lawton making their way into the city, and 30 minutes later there was nothing.

Compared to Monday, today felt like one of those dangerous days when I stepped outside.

I think at this point going forward. Any kind of rain threat in the immediate forecast is probably more concerning than a tornado threat.

Tracking the different sets of storms coming into the metro was weird. Looked at the radar and there were three back-to-back storms past Lawton making their way into the city, and 30 minutes later there was nothing.

Compared to Monday, today felt like one of those dangerous days when I stepped outside.

Just goes to show how small changes in the atmosphere can make a big difference. The more favorable upper air conditions were not that far away from the storms that died off. Good to see that SPC's original slight or marginal risk for southern sides of metro mostly verified.

Just goes to show how small changes in the atmosphere can make a big difference. ...

Known as the butterfly effect, I read about it in Chaos by James Gleick about 30 years ago (but it's been around way longer than that).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Butterfly_effect

Serious situation developing along the Arkansas River near Webber’s Falls. Two large barges broke loose near Muskogee and are drifting downstream towards lock and dam 16 up river from Webber’s Falls. No tug boats available to wrangle the loose barges. If these impact that dam and damage it, Webber’s Falls could be in serious trouble.

These barges are hung up on rocks 2 miles from dam.

Options in my opinion:

Helo someone to drop in and lay explosives

Send the Batfish to torpedo

Lay many rope nets across the river

Hopefully they can get a tug out and push them back. It was looking dicey late last night they lost them in the dark and had no helo other than medical to search

Should be quiet across C OK today. Far W OK could see more storms later. And then again tomorrow we could see storms across W and *maybe* they sneak into C OK before dying.

Could see more severe weather out W on Sunday. SPC outlining 15% probability for main body of OK on Tuesday.

The barges hit dam and sank/got sucked under water. Dam held. I-40 still closed I guess ti figure out if dam is safe. If dam breaks all that water goes rushing to 40.

The barges hit dam and sank/got sucked under water. Dam held. I-40 still closed I guess ti figure out if dam is safe. If dam breaks all that water goes rushing to 40.

I guess dam was designed to hold pack millions of pounds of rushing water. They looked like pieces of driftwood compared to dam.
https://kfor.com/2019/05/23/watch-two-barges-sink-after-hitting-dam-at-webbers-falls/

Speaking of the USS Batfish submarine in Muskogee, it's now floating again with all the flooding:
https://www.thedrive.com/news/28167/midwest-flooding-re-floats-historic-wwii-submarine-for-the-first-time-in-decades

Can’t wait till June 1st when all of this storm chance crap will be done. What is taking so long for summer to get here?

Looking long-range. Models show stormy pattern continuing into first week of June. Maybe some northwest-flow type of storms coming with MCSes out of CO/KS.

I know our patterns change quickly, but are we looking somewhat safe from drought patterns this year?

So the tornado threat is essentially over for the year now? Doesn’t seem to be any chatter anywhere. So glad Mon was a big bust but am miffed about all the hype surrounding it. Can do without that from now on.

Monday had multiple tornadoes, many storms, and flooding that continues to impact the state. Weird “bust”.

But it wasn’t historic by any means either like many were saying. I am just glad storm season is essentially over. Bring on summer.

Yikes

https://twitter.com/themahler/status/1131738185711652864?s=20

Severe storm season is far far from being over folks!!

I know our patterns change quickly, but are we looking somewhat safe from drought patterns this year?

At least going into this summer were good.

I am sure storm season is over. The clouds cleared out tonight, and each day only has a 20 % chance of storms. Tue only has a slight chance. If the biggest severe threat day of the year didn't produce, and everything here on out is less than a quarter chance of anything, that points to severe weather season being over or at least on the downswing. And good riddance to it I might say.

I am sure storm season is over. The clouds cleared out tonight, and each day only has a 20 % chance of storms. Tue only has a slight chance. If the biggest severe threat day of the year didn't produce, and everything here on out is less than a quarter chance of anything, that points to severe weather season being over or at least on the downswing. And good riddance to it I might say.

Ok, Keep smoking whatever it is you are because it is some good stuff LOL

That flooding out east is CRAZY! The aerial photographs over keystone dam are simply fascinating to me. I mean, imagine how much pressure that dam is holding back. How many gallons of water? It is incredible!! Then you have lock and dam 16 that is taking the full brunt of that river and it took an impact from two fully loaded barges like it was nothing. And to think, these dams were built 50 years ago and they are still standing strong.

At the same time, it’s a little sobering to think about what could happen if the keystone dam ever failed.

At the same time, it’s a little sobering to think about what could happen if the keystone dam ever failed.

Scary thought.

Slight risk outlook today from central to Western Oklahoma. Saturday and Sunday will have more action out west. Tuesday could be stormy too, probably too far away to know what Tuesday will all entail. More storms coming back next weekend. So maybe a little bit less active and widespread, but severe weather season is still very much not over as far as this upcoming week is concern. I would be more concern with more people being caught off guard during a holiday week because there isn't a particular "hype" day. Unless Tuesday becomes a hype day, who knows.

That flooding out east is CRAZY! The aerial photographs over keystone dam are simply fascinating to me. I mean, imagine how much pressure that dam is holding back. How many gallons of water? It is incredible!! Then you have lock and dam 16 that is taking the full brunt of that river and it took an impact from two fully loaded barges like it was nothing. And to think, these dams were built 50 years ago and they are still standing strong.

At the same time, it’s a little sobering to think about what could happen if the keystone dam ever failed.

Keystone Dam (and others) are the real MVP's during these times. This would be a major disaster without them doing what they were built and designed to do.

Slight risk outlook today from central to Western Oklahoma. Saturday and Sunday will have more action out west. Tuesday could be stormy too, probably too far away to know what Tuesday will all entail. More storms coming back next weekend. So maybe a little bit less active and widespread, but severe weather season is still very much not over as far as this upcoming week is concern. I would be more concern with more people being caught off guard during a holiday week because there isn't a particular "hype" day. Unless Tuesday becomes a hype day, who knows.

You have pretty much covered it.

Slight Risk expanded to include majority of C OK for later today into tonight. We should see storms develop across W OK after lunch and push off to the NNE. Later on we should see a cluster of storms come out of NW TX and push into W OK, these will attempt to make a run at OKC heading into the overnight hours. Main threat is damaging wind, but isolated tornado is not out of the question.

At this time, Tuesday is looking like a decent shot for a higher-end event.

At this time, Tuesday is looking like a decent shot for a higher-end event.
Careful... there are some armchair quarterbacks who might accuse you of overhyping the forecast for better ratings, even if the scientific data might suggest it would be wise to pay close attention.

Careful... there are some armchair quarterbacks who might accuse you of overhyping the forecast for better ratings, even if the scientific data might suggest it would be wise to pay close attention.

No. The way he defined it is fine. It is when you start throwing exclamations that it becomes an issue. Not honest opinions. Hyperbole for effect is the issue.

Main concern is more flooding.

http://www.weather.gov/images/oun/graphicast/image8.png?7d3983ae4cf9f7fd115a24c879665009

I am the first one to complain when they overdo the typical thunderstorm and go wall to wall coverage 100 miles away.

But this week I have zero problem with coverage or warnings. The data told them it was ripe. If one looks at all the massive destruction going on this week I just can’t see how anyone could complain.

The only complaint would be all the rookie and sightseeing caravans clogging rural roads thus impeding roads and creating hazards for those who do this to warn the public. In some cases it was pure luck a tornado didn’t bear down on a mile long backup pf chasers, no way could they have all escaped in time. The ability of chasers to be very mobile is why its a great service so when all these out of state chasers and tourists show up it endangers the lives of chasers and ability to report accurately.

What I’d like to see is a permitting process so bad ones can be reported and lose permit. I hate extra regulation but this becomes life threatening weather events and no place for rookie chasers to impede the pros.

I am the first one to complain when they overdo the typical thunderstorm and go wall to wall coverage 100 miles away.

But this week I have zero problem with coverage or warnings. The data told them it was ripe. If one looks at all the massive destruction going on this week I just can’t see how anyone could complain.

The only complaint would be all the rookie and sightseeing caravans clogging rural roads thus impeding roads and creating hazards for those who do this to warn the public. In some cases it was pure luck a tornado didn’t bear down on a mile long backup pf chasers, no way could they have all escaped in time. The ability of chasers to be very mobile is why its a great service so when all these out of state chasers and tourists show up it endangers the lives of chasers and ability to report accurately.

What I’d like to see is a permitting process so bad ones can be reported and lose permit. I hate extra regulation but this becomes life threatening weather events and no place for rookie chasers to impede the pros.

Everyone thinks they can be a chaser with all the new technology now. I don't think you could legally force them to get a permit as what is to stop them from saying they weren't just driving through. Pretty obvious when someone is chasing, but there is that legal grey area.

I am the first one to complain when they overdo the typical thunderstorm and go wall to wall coverage 100 miles away.

But this week I have zero problem with coverage or warnings. The data told them it was ripe. If one looks at all the massive destruction going on this week I just can’t see how anyone could complain.

The only complaint would be all the rookie and sightseeing caravans clogging rural roads thus impeding roads and creating hazards for those who do this to warn the public. In some cases it was pure luck a tornado didn’t bear down on a mile long backup pf chasers, no way could they have all escaped in time. The ability of chasers to be very mobile is why its a great service so when all these out of state chasers and tourists show up it endangers the lives of chasers and ability to report accurately.

What I’d like to see is a permitting process so bad ones can be reported and lose permit. I hate extra regulation but this becomes life threatening weather events and no place for rookie chasers to impede the pros.

Keep in mind the local broadcast area is much more broad than the OKC metro. I grew up about 150 miles away from OKC and we depended on the OKC affiliates breaking in to programming to give us weather warnings.

Everyone thinks they can be a chaser with all the new technology now. I don't think you could legally force them to get a permit as what is to stop them from saying they weren't just driving through. Pretty obvious when someone is chasing, but there is that legal grey area.

Great point and it would be impossible to enforce. My guess is most honest folks would register. Maybe use proceeds to educate public on dangers of chasing? Good thing about registering is the state would have a ready list of chasers to put word out or even push messages on dangerous chaser actions and educational info. Could require a bendable pole be flown if registered which would help police stop unregistered cars in actual chases. Most times local police are out blocking roads and letting chasers thru.

Lost cause I know, but it will likely rookie chasers getting killed before public pushes some type actions.

Keep in mind the local broadcast area is much more broad than the OKC metro. I grew up about 150 miles away from OKC and we depended on the OKC affiliates breaking in to programming to give us weather warnings.


I get that but if its just a routine storm the whole viewing region does not need to watch. Thats all I’m saying is they go overboard a non critical storm. I have zero problems with this week tho.

Tornado Watch is out for all of NW and NC OK. Cut off is just N and W of OKC.

I get that but if its just a routine storm the whole viewing region does not need to watch. Thats all I’m saying is they go overboard a non critical storm. I have zero problems with this week tho.

The problem is that the small town in BFE gets their programming interrupted with coverage of storms in the metro, so why shouldn’t the metro get interrupted for the same level of storms in BFE? If the station covers the area, they should warn everyone at the same standard.

It would be nice if we had the technology to determine where people are watching from and only interrupt the programming in those areas, similar to how the emergency warnings work. Or just consistently move the weather coverage to the digital channels like 4.1 or 9.1 if they are available to the same customers.

The problem is that the small town in BFE gets their programming interrupted with coverage of storms in the metro, so why shouldn’t the metro get interrupted for the same level of storms in BFE? If the station covers the area, they should warn everyone at the same standard.

It would be nice if we had the technology to determine where people are watching from and only interrupt the programming in those areas, similar to how the emergency warnings work. Or just consistently move the weather coverage to the digital channels like 4.1 or 9.1 if they are available to the same customers.

None of them are willing to be the first to blink and restore regular programming, which is why the metro gets coverage of storms NE of it, moving NE, leading people in the metro who can't see past their own noses to declare a bust. The solution is two-fold, antennas no longer reach 150 miles out, so let them get their programming/alerts from an appropriate source, and educate the uneducated who believe there's no hunger problem because they personally had lunch today.

New TOR watch through 10PM has been issued along the I-44 corridor in SW and C OK. This watch includes Altus, Wichita Falls, Lawton, Chickasha, and OKC. Sufficient instability (3000 J/kg MLCAPE) and helicity (100-200 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH) is present to support development of a few supercells capable of all hazards, including tornadoes. Greatest tornado threat is 7pm-10pm, per SPC.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0234.html
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0234_radar_big.gif

This past 7 days has just shown how predictably unpredictable Oklahoma weather can be.

Mesonet says tornado potential very low for the metro and slight storm chances, which I equate marginal and slight the same, so it back to regularly scheduled programming for me. Why should I even pay attention at that point. I am glad no one is hyping it but at don't lie to me and say something might happen when it probably won't. I am done paying attention to the weather. But I do want summer to get here sooner rather than later.

If you think a Tornado Watch means a tornado will happen, you can’t fault the weather service for your lack of understanding what they mean.

The problem is that the small town in BFE gets their programming interrupted with coverage of storms in the metro, so why shouldn’t the metro get interrupted for the same level of storms in BFE? If the station covers the area, they should warn everyone at the same standard.

It would be nice if we had the technology to determine where people are watching from and only interrupt the programming in those areas, similar to how the emergency warnings work. Or just consistently move the weather coverage to the digital channels like 4.1 or 9.1 if they are available to the same customers.

I may have not explained well enough. Its not the tv cut in its that the storm does not need cutting in as its not tornadic or life threatening. Just garden variety normal thunderstorms. In a slow storm season they get too antsy to show all their toys off.

This week I have zero problems with how they handled it and support their coverage. Wanted to make that distinction.

I haven’t watched actual local channels in forever. In the past they would cut to the weather during commercials, do a quick 60-90 second “here are the storms, no tornadoes right now, don’t worry, we’re keeping an eye on them, they will be in X in 20 minutes, back to your show now” weather coverage, and then go back to the show and all we would miss would be commercials. People get freaked out worrying about storms, so I’m fine with “just a normal storm, don’t worry” coverage if it’s handled like that.

Is that what they’ve gone over the top with, cutting into actual shows to follow a tiny storm cloud? If that’s the case I’m with you.

Wow, you really haven't watched local TV in a while. :):wink:

Severe storms heading toward OKC now. Should be here around 10pm.

Mesonet says tornado potential very low for the metro and slight storm chances, which I equate marginal and slight the same, so it back to regularly scheduled programming for me. Why should I even pay attention at that point. I am glad no one is hyping it but at don't lie to me and say something might happen when it probably won't. I am done paying attention to the weather. But I do want summer to get here sooner rather than later.

Actually its low, not very low. You would be correct that it's not the main threat. Bit there always a chance of embedded tornados in a squall line especially when low level jet is at its strongest in the evening. Usually nothing big or major but people need to be aware none the less.

Wonder what our drought level is at?

Wonder what our drought level is at?

Zero counties are in drought. There is only so much extra water that the land and plants can hold so this extra rain doesn't help.

But it wasn’t historic by any means either like many were saying. I am just glad storm season is essentially over. Bring on summer.

The flooding is starting to go the historic route.

I’m surprised no one is speaking about the was it one or was it not one that happened this evening near down town.

Kind of caught me by surprise, I had turned off the TV thinking it was nowhere near the city and then I received a text from a friend alerting me to take shelter, as downtown was about to get hit. It looks like nothing happened, it started raining like the devil after all that.

Must agree even I was caught off guard last night, even though I knew there could be a rumbler rolling through later. Was at a friend's house when some lightning started, then a quick glance of some info showed there was a lowering and some rotation near WRWA! That was a "yikes" moment, so I sped home in case I needed to get my family organized and sheltered. Obviously nothing came of it, but it was a reminder how things can change quickly. Like everyone else, I'll be glad when this pattern shifts to be more summer-like....

I’m ready for a summer pattern too, but it’s going to be a long recovery for our lakes, rivers, and towns. If it stopped raining today, I bet you wouldn’t see things get back to normal till the end of June or early July. Unfortunately, we all know that the rain isn’t going to stop today. This will be a costly recovery for Oklahoma.

All this rain I wonder if lake Optima out in western ok panhandle got any?

Storms are on going again out west in a tornado watch. We will likely see a Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued in a bit for C OK with these storms forming into another line/cluster much like last night and pushing east.

My guess is similar timing to yesterday with OKC impacts felt around 9-10pm.