This is exactly what I did for the first time with this event. I stopped watching local news after last Friday night and went with NWS Norman Twitter feed exclusively Sat., Sun., and all day yesterday. It was very freeing not to be tied to wall-to-wall coverage and hyperbole. Had the weather radio for the overnight warnings and just checked the NWS Norman Twitter feed when it went off for more info. It was great. Less stressful.

yes, and sometimes the only way to get this info... i didn't turn on the tv at 4am this morning when the sirens went off in norman, i just got on the NWS pages... but i have heard from several at work today that the local media stations failed to really have much about what was going on then... that i guess one had a crew out and was just talking but not showing radar, and the other two just had a scroll, no radar and didn't even interrupt the programming... again, this is all second hand, i did not witness, so please provide info to prove this not to be true, because it's actually really scary if true.

yes... but we also have had local media personalities who said on the air, while trying to hype it up, that people need to get in their cars and drive away from this storm... see the problem there...

Thats a whole separate situation:

1. There is preplanning warnings to alert public of chances of storms

2. There is actual storm taking place and people giving advice what to do that exact moment

That tv station was wrong to ask people to leave. At that point it was too late, if people didn’t already leave they were better off in house. I personally feel that person caused deaths by telling people to leave.

The main discussion is about yesterdays “predictions” way before any storms popped. Not the same scenario. I feel they were correct in overhyping yesterday based on the info they had.

yes, and sometimes the only way to get this info... i didn't turn on the tv at 4am this morning when the sirens went off in norman, i just got on the NWS pages... but i have heard from several at work today that the local media stations failed to really have much about what was going on then... that i guess one had a crew out and was just talking but not showing radar, and the other two just had a scroll, no radar and didn't even interrupt the programming... again, this is all second hand, i did not witness, so please provide info to prove this not to be true, because it's actually really scary if true.

Can't speak for the other stations, but Emily Sutton on Channel 4 was specifically speaking about the tornado right after I tuned in after being awoken by the alert from my phone. Within a minute of the alert I was able to get live information about the situation and determine that I was safe where I was.

In general, I don't watch the local news or the regular weather reports. Any "hype" I get comes from here, for the most part. I don't feel that this event was "overhyped".

Can't speak for the other stations, but Emily Sutton on Channel 4 was specifically speaking about the tornado right after I tuned in after being awoken by the alert from my phone. Within a minute of the alert I was able to get live information about the situation and determine that I was safe where I was.

In general, I don't watch the local news or the regular weather reports. Any "hype" I get comes from here, for the most part. I don't feel that this event was "overhyped".

local ABC met Shelby Hays was on at 430am when i tuned in and it seemed like she had been on for a litte while

yes, and sometimes the only way to get this info... i didn't turn on the tv at 4am this morning when the sirens went off in norman, i just got on the NWS pages... but i have heard from several at work today that the local media stations failed to really have much about what was going on then... that i guess one had a crew out and was just talking but not showing radar, and the other two just had a scroll, no radar and didn't even interrupt the programming... again, this is all second hand, i did not witness, so please provide info to prove this not to be true, because it's actually really scary if true.

Channel 9 was live and called the TW in Norman before the sirens sounded. I was watching it live when it happened. Jed Castles was completely on the ball and basically running the show on his own (all the other mets were gone by then). I think he was also having to cover for the KOTV 6 side in Tulsa because he covered a TW just east of Tulsa at nearly the same time this morning.

So there was definitely local TV coverage of the Norman event this morning. It was unfortunate that they blew the sirens in apparently ALL of Cleveland County, which stretches up well into the OKC city limits....but that's a separate issue.

awesome... this all makes me much happier to hear. like i said, it was something i overheard, so it was all second hand info.

Thats a whole separate situation:

1. There is preplanning warnings to alert public of chances of storms

2. There is actual storm taking place and people giving advice what to do that exact moment

That tv station was wrong to ask people to leave. At that point it was too late, if people didn’t already leave they were better off in house. I personally feel that person caused deaths by telling people to leave.

The main discussion is about yesterdays “predictions” way before any storms popped. Not the same scenario. I feel they were correct in overhyping yesterday based on the info they had.

Excellent point and spot-on regarding yesterday's forecasts: If you give the NWS and the SPC folks in particular the same parameters we had yesterday, they'll issue the same PDS every time. *ALL* the parameters were right there. I mean, IIRC, you had p(.95) of hail *AND* wind *and* tornadoes.

I think what happened yesterday just goes to highlight the fact that there are *so* many variables in play that, sometimes, you're very best information can still not work out exactly as might be predicted. Lost amid this discussion is the fact that SPC had this storm situation identified in long-range forecasts as much as (if not more than) a week ago. Perhaps the broader takeaway is that the more *micro* the forecast becomes, the greater the risk for departures from expectations.

This wasn't an abnormal hype situation. You had tornado chasers from all over the *country* here yesterday because of the atmospheric setup. The tornadoes in Mangum and east of Tulsa late last night were indicative of what they expected all over the state yesterday, so it wasn't like it was a total miss. I think OKC/central Oklahoma truly dodged a bullet.

Saw this don’t shoot the messenger. Will be curious to see NOAA forecast later tonight. Most weather people are likely sleeping right now from being up all night

—-

Aaron Tuttle
@AaronTuttleOK
Tomorrow could be an interesting supercell surprise event over C OK. Join me tonight at 9:30 to discuss the possibility of tornadoes returning. #okwx #tornadoes #Oklahoma #okc #tulsa
12:51 PM · May 21, 2019 · Twitter for Android

I think tomorrow has capping issues which why only a few people are latching onto it. But we will see.

.
awesome... this all makes me much happier to hear. like i said, it was something i overheard, so it was all second hand info
I also saw Shelby Hays on KOCO ...she was reporting and had a live report from Michael Armstrong in the field.

This wasn't an abnormal hype situation.

Apparently for those who decline to understand the situation, it was

Saw this don’t shoot the messenger. Will be curious to see NOAA forecast later tonight. Most weather people are likely sleeping right now from being up all night

—-

Aaron Tuttle
@AaronTuttleOK
Tomorrow could be an interesting supercell surprise event over C OK. Join me tonight at 9:30 to discuss the possibility of tornadoes returning. #okwx #tornadoes #Oklahoma #okc #tulsa
12:51 PM · May 21, 2019 · Twitter for Android

Lost most if not all respect for him a while back.

The air north of warmfront was unseasonably cold for this time of year. I saw a couple of meteorologist talk about that before this event. Too much cloud cover also in warm sector.

Yeah that's what I've heard as well. Just a few pieces missing to avoid a major outbreak. Honestly the flooding issue could end up being much more damaging and affect way more people, especially if the area gets more rain this week. I saw where Keystone Dam will release 160,000 cfs tonight which will begin to flood low-lying areas in Jenks and Bixby. A 180,000 cfs release would begin to flood entire neighborhoods in Sand Springs, Tulsa, Jenks, Bixby and points downstream like Muskogee. The Tulsa mayor has declared a flood emergency in preparation.

And even after all that rain, we had dust in the air this afternoon.

Lost most if not all respect for him a while back.

Believe it or not though he was the only meteorologist that wasn't predicting doom and gloom yesterday. I am not the biggest fan of his "presentation" but when it comes to hype, he usually does it right these days. Of course that hasn't always been the case, especially back when he was on KOCO.

Lost most if not all respect for him a while back.


NWS Norman
@NWSNorman
We continue to monitor the potential for severe weather Wednesday afternoon. There does appear to be a risk of severe thunderstorms across central sections of Oklahoma into western north Texas. #okwx #texomawx
Image
8:49 PM · May 21, 2019 · TweetDeck
44
Retweets
94
Likes

Yeah that's what I've heard as well. Just a few pieces missing to avoid a major outbreak. Honestly the flooding issue could end up being much more damaging and affect way more people, especially if the area gets more rain this week. I saw where Keystone Dam will release 160,000 cfs tonight which will begin to flood low-lying areas in Jenks and Bixby. A 180,000 cfs release would begin to flood entire neighborhoods in Sand Springs, Tulsa, Jenks, Bixby and points downstream like Muskogee. The Tulsa mayor has declared a flood emergency in preparation.

More release is sure needed so that flooded Cimarron River can better accept runoff from Stillwater, Guthrie and other towns. As a result for now Stillwater Creek is out of its banks in Stillwater. OSU report of water going 3 ft. over the spillway at Blackwell Lake added to the situation. Spillway water goes directly into Stillwater Creek.

Flood in Stillwater on Tuesday:

W. 12th St. underwater and closed:
https://stillwaterweather.com/photos/DSC02303.jpg

The flooding as seen from the other side of W. 12th. Water went a block to the left and got into some houses. Much of the area shown along 12th was made into park land after previous floods. At least several other scenes like this on streets near Stillwater Creek. Not since 2007, the year it rained over 60", has there been flooding like this:
https://stillwaterweather.com/photos/DSC02311.jpg

11th and Knoblock
https://stillwaterweather.com/photos/11thknoblock.jpg

Water shown almost up to Lakeview Ave. bridge across Boomer Lake. Earlier the water was up to the outer lanes, which were closed.
https://stillwaterweather.com/photos/DSC00305.jpg

Water over the spillway at Boomer Lake. Boomer Creek had no trouble handling the water.
https://stillwaterweather.com/photos/DSC00301.jpg

NWS Norman
@NWSNorman
We continue to monitor the potential for severe weather Wednesday afternoon. There does appear to be a risk of severe thunderstorms across central sections of Oklahoma into western north Texas. #okwx #texomawx
Image
8:49 PM · May 21, 2019 · TweetDeck
44
Retweets
94
Likes

NWS I can respect. AT, still not so much. To each their own.

*sigh*

Looking toward the next GFS run coming up just after 7am....looking like models are going to project increasing chances of storms in the central and north central parts of the state going into the afternoon. If the storms do go up, there's a good shot they'll evolve into supercells.

SPC guidance from 1am local had risk area from OKC to Tulsa to SE KS, but indications are that region may expand south and west some with later models. CAPE levels are moderately unstable, but strong jet may provide sufficient lift for storms.

They went with slight for 8 am outlook with enhanced for Tulsa area. It was mentioned in outlook discussion that a special sounding will be released to sample air. Lack of forcing and cap is why their maintaining slight risk.

They went with slight for 8 am outlook with enhanced for Tulsa area. It was mentioned in outlook discussion that a special sounding will be released to sample air. Lack of forcing and cap is why their maintaining slight risk.

Man any met in this area has to have a strong stomach.

Euro appears to show a line of storms planting along I-35 later this afternoon and evening from OKC to the Red River. Don't see that at all in GFS. Obviously some differing biases in whether that cap will hold.

An aerial flood watch was just issued for Canadian, Cleveland, Garfield, Grady, Grant, Kay, Kingfisher, Lincoln, Logan, McClain, Noble, Oklahoma, Payne, Pottawatomie counties until Thursday at 7:00 a.m.

Boundary is lifting north across the state right now, should bring in warmer temperatures and higher dewpoints across C OK by lunchtime. This will also aid in eroding some lingering low-level clouds. This boundary and just east of it will be the focal point for storm development heading into late afternoon with storms possibly developing along and near the I-35 corridor.

Best shot looks to be across N and NE OK for supercells, but development further south and west cannot be ruled out. Look for storms to start bubbling up around 2pm.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2019052214/hrrr_ref_frzn_scus_7.png

More release is sure needed so that flooded Cimarron River can better accept runoff from Stillwater, Guthrie and other towns. As a result for now Stillwater Creek is out of its banks in Stillwater. OSU report of water going 3 ft. over the spillway at Blackwell Lake added to the situation. Spillway water goes directly into Stillwater Creek.


Keystone Dam is now releasing 215,000 cfs with more possible. At this amount entire neighborhoods will be flooded downstream in the Tulsa area. Webbers Falls further downstream is under a mandatory evacuation.

The story today will be even worse flooding for NE Oklahoma from any worse storms that form.

A lot of roads closed.
https://ok.maps.arcgis.com/apps/Viewer/index.html?appid=023e821ebf7b4acd999ccfd58d92c3da

What needs to really happen is for no more rain in the Kaw and Keystone lake basins. Even at 215,000 cfs both are still taking in more water than they are letting out. Keystone is taking in 250,000 cfs right now.

The catastrophic 1986 flood in Tulsa peaked at Keystone releasing 307,000 cfs.

SPC has upgraded to Moderate Risk for far NE OK, including Tulsa area. This will include a 15% probability of significant tornado threat.

Moderate Risk has been expanded further SW towards OKC, but confidence is still low in this area for storm development. Tornado parameters are still greater than 5% for OKC metro.

What needs to really happen is for no more rain in the Kaw and Keystone lake basins. Even at 215,000 cfs both are still taking in more water than they are letting out. Keystone is taking in 250,000 cfs right now.

The catastrophic 1986 flood in Tulsa peaked at Keystone releasing 307,000 cfs.

River Spirit Casino/Hotel in Tulsa has closed due to potential flooding. They built just above the 100 year flood plain but this event may surpass that.

highway 62 closing between tahlequah and muskogee

The story today will be even worse flooding for NE Oklahoma from any worse storms that form.

A lot of roads closed.
https://ok.maps.arcgis.com/apps/Viewer/index.html?appid=023e821ebf7b4acd999ccfd58d92c3da

Funny how the 'this was an overblown non-event' ilk have gone dark in the light of evidence.

Tornado Watch may be issued for broad corridor of OK from SW to NE along and ahead of frontal boundary in consideration of new development forming near Wichita Falls and heading northeast toward Lawton.

NWS Norman
@NWSNorman
·
26m
2:00 PM - we have expanded the slight risk and tornado probabilities to include parts of SW OK and western N TX. Not everyone will see a storm, but those that do should be ready for large hail and potentially a tornado. Watch for updates.

——


NWS Norman
@NWSNorman
·
14m
2:15 PM - technical discussion about the evolving severe weather potential over SW Oklahoma. A tornado watch may be issued soon. Stay alert

https://mobile.twitter.com/NWSNorman

PDS watch is out for all of C OK. Another one is likely coming for far NE OK later today.

80% probabilities for both multiple tornadoes and a significant tornado or two.


Storms are firing right on cue down near the Red River along I-44.

Looks like the Euro model got this one better than GFS.

NWS Tornado
@NWStornado
A tornado watch has been issued for parts of Oklahoma and Texas until 10 PM CDT

https://mobile.twitter.com/NWStornado/status/1131281290035126273

Storm going up south of Lawton already showing some rotation in its infancy. I am back in OKC and will be in chat if anyone wants to join.

https://chatroll.com/embed/chat/wxstuff-live-chat?name=wxstuff-live-chat

"NWS: A PDS Tornado Watch is in effect until 10PM for much of SW and central OK. Very large hail and tornadoes are possible. Please stay alert!!"

Man... you just can't trust these meteorologists who are overhyping for the TV ratings. Shame on you, National Weather Service. </sarcasm>

SPC has extended Enhanced Risk area all the way SW to include C OK.

This does increase tornado probability to greater than 10% with hashed indicator for significant tornadoes.

Aaron Tuttle probably doing back flips right now. More money for his app. His gamble paying off.

NWS Norman
@NWSNorman
3:10 PM - scattered storms developing from OKC metro south to the Arbuckles to the east of I-35 are becoming stronger and may be supercells soon. Areas along and E of I-35 and S of I-44 remain alert!
3:12 PM · May 22, 2019 · TweetDec

https://mobile.twitter.com/NWSNorman/status/1131291867222618112

Newest conspiracy theory on spotters: They over predicted Mon to flush out all the rookies and now that most are gone home the pro chasers can chase unimpeded lol. All joking aside my guess is we have less chasers since today was mostly a surprise event.

"NWS: A PDS Tornado Watch is in effect until 10PM for much of SW and central OK. Very large hail and tornadoes are possible. Please stay alert!!"

Man... you just can't trust these meteorologists who are overhyping for the TV ratings. Shame on you, National Weather Service. </sarcasm>

please stay alert is fine.... this is a life-altering once in a lifetime event, is not....

stating that a watch is in effect and tornadoes are possible is fine... saying a day will be the worst tornado day in oklahoma history, is not...

see the differences

NWS Norman
@NWSNorman
Analysis of our 230pm weather balloon data shows that the cap has weakened considerably over central Oklahoma. Instability and wind shear are favorable for supercell storms with large hail and potentially tornadoes. #okwx
3:18 PM · May 22, 2019 · TweetDeck

https://mobile.twitter.com/NWSNorman/status/1131293303171932162

For those of you who track the different models, Euro nailed this one while GFS whiffed, at least with storms in SC/SW OK.

For those of you who track the different models, Euro nailed this one while GFS whiffed, at least with storms in SC/SW OK.

yep. will be interesting to see how they form up and how close the Euro really was

Another storm developing north of Lawton they are maintaining good separation as of right now. I'm just imagining now the uproar we will hear if we actually get a forecast bust from the opposite end: An outbreak that wasn't predicted.

Edit: northern storm already losing some of its intensity.

please stay alert is fine.... this is a life-altering once in a lifetime event, is not....

stating that a watch is in effect and tornadoes are possible is fine... saying a day will be the worst tornado day in oklahoma history, is not...

see the differences
Who said it was going to be the worst tornado day in Oklahoma history?

What I see is that there has been a lot of armchair quarterbacking going on since Monday and much of it has been, by definition, ignorant — as in not understanding that most of the mets were in agreement, including the NWS and SPC, that the ingredients were there for a potentially bad, bad situation. Fortunately for all of us, we got the best-case scenario rather than the worst-case scenario — if you ignore all the really dangerous flooding.

All those armchair quarterbacks, since they are the experts, can just turn off all those overhyping meteorologists and do their own forecasts.

I do see the difference... the difference between hyperbolic lamenting of supposedly "busted" forecasts versus the well-reasoned, experience, scientific analysis and discussion that I was following on Sunday and Monday. I would still be overwarned and it bust than the opposite happen.

Today felt like a worse weather day than Monday. The sun was out most of the day felt like supercells.

PDS watch now issued for all of NE OK, Same tornado parameters as the one to the SW, but higher in wind and hail parameters.

I'm sure most of you are with anonymous in chat. Northern Lawton storm trying to ramp up again.

Chat says it is full.

Yes, just noticed that it says it is full, there is only 10 of us in there.

Today felt like a worse weather day than Monday. The sun was out most of the day felt like supercells.

I agree with this.

This is also why I follow Aaron Tuttle. He was less bullish on Monday than most of the other mets but was talking about an outbreak today when nobody else was.

The supercells E of OKC area are the real deal. Both cells are tornado producing at this time. Heading into Cromwell and Okemah.

Anything southwest is struggling. If they survive, they could move into more favorable conditions. There is an ingredient that is not quite there in that area.

Lawton storm is not even severe now. There is another cell west of that one going up, but it appears to be stuck on a boundary heading north so that has a good chance of dying off.

I don’t understand the science behind tornados that well.

I also don’t care if they say it’s gonna be hell out there and then it’s a bust. If that’s what the data says can happen, I’ll listen.

That being said, when it was cloudy and near cold Monday morning I kinda thought, nah, that’s not EF-5 tornado weather. For those super massive tornados everything has to go right (or wrong?), Monday morning showed it wasn’t.

Short range models redevelop a few supercells just WSW of OKC as we head into sundown. We will see if this happens or not...

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2019052221/hrrr_ref_frzn_scus_6.png

Today felt like a worse weather day than Monday. The sun was out most of the day felt like supercells.

Yep. I remember the last few outbreaks like 5/3/99 and 5/20/13 and they had a certain feel. Really warm, humid, sunny. Monday wasn't like that.

What needs to really happen is for no more rain in the Kaw and Keystone lake basins. Even at 215,000 cfs both are still taking in more water than they are letting out. Keystone is taking in 250,000 cfs right now.

The catastrophic 1986 flood in Tulsa peaked at Keystone releasing 307,000 cfs.

Unfortunately, that is exactly what is occurring now. More rain.

So are those storms in SC/SW Ok going to get organized or are they going to fade out??