View Full Version : General Weather Discussion - May 2019



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flyfisher07
05-20-2019, 04:56 PM
Is it time to pull out the B card yet? If this were an analogy it would probably be the soccer referee who has grabbed the card in his shirt pocket, but isn't ready to flash it just yet!

C_M_25
05-20-2019, 05:18 PM
As of right now, this has “boy who cried wolf” written all over it.

okatty
05-20-2019, 05:22 PM
I assume you mean for the metro.....there are wolves all over the place elsewhere.

OKC Guy
05-20-2019, 05:24 PM
Its still early for OKC so get yer snacks out gonna be a long night this goes til 4am so 11 more hours. Too early to call it a ball vs strike imo

flyfisher07
05-20-2019, 05:32 PM
I assume you mean for the metro.....there are wolves all over the place elsewhere.

You're right, this could still be something, but considering the language used by pretty much everyone leading up to today, it's largely underperformed. The language they've used was equal or similar to the 4/27/11 storm and by this point in the day they already had several EF3/4/5s on the ground (simultaneously I might add). We'll see what happens between now and 8pm.

jonny d
05-20-2019, 05:49 PM
The cloud cover today helped the metro. Very much so. May get some rain, but thankfully there was no sun today to warm us up.

Outhunder
05-20-2019, 05:53 PM
So ridiculous!!! so much panicking and nothing happening. Unreal!!!!!

OKC Guy
05-20-2019, 05:56 PM
You're right, this could still be something, but considering the language used by pretty much everyone leading up to today, it's largely underperformed. The language they've used was equal or similar to the 4/27/11 storm and by this point in the day they already had several EF3/4/5s on the ground (simultaneously I might add). We'll see what happens between now and 8pm.

Can’t compare to others this one is lasting to overnight. All of SW which is blowing up now will be here later. I agree about overdoing language but they saw signs in the data to make these claims. Wasn’t just OKC weathermen it was national saying it

sacolton
05-20-2019, 05:59 PM
I felt a raindrop! I felt a raindrop! In Edmond!

jn1780
05-20-2019, 06:08 PM
Cant win them all. For whatever reason, south central couldn't get going. Cap appeared to build back in. There was one storm that did get going that produce tornado and these western storms are still producing . So half bust. It should evolve into a squall line event and that may have smaller embedded tornados and wind threat.

Of course, crybabies are going to cry hype but meteorologist called it how they saw it

d-usa
05-20-2019, 06:20 PM
If people ever understand the concept behind risks and percentages, they will stop demanding “it’s gonna be an F4 at 5:45 across May and NW 50th” and “it’s gonna be absolutely nothing” forecasts.

If you want certainties, stay away from weather forecasts, considering that everything impacts them and can change the potentials with every run of the forecast. All they can do is communicate the risk, they can’t help that after how many years with the NWS in our backyard people still don’t understand that a 90% risk doesn’t mean anything is gonna happen.

SoonerDave
05-20-2019, 06:21 PM
One of the earlier SPC outlooks talked about seeing MLCAPE values in the 4,500 range. That's high, but not stratospheric. I recall storm scenarios where we saw a *lot* higher CAPE numbers, like in the 6k area. That may relate back to.unexpected cap strength.

OKC Guy
05-20-2019, 06:33 PM
I have no problem with the predictions of today the data showed it to be a highest risk potential. Just like you can’t predict exact location a tornado will hit the system can evolve and change. So I fully support todays dire predictions.

The problem is they over cover smaller storms all spring long and cut into tv when its just a thunderstorm. Thats why people complain about a dud is all the prior overkill. These stations spend mega bucks on coverage with helicopters and trackers and fancy radars and have to justify it. So they over cover non events and it wears people out where they get numbed. But today was 100% justified even if it fizzles out.

Whats bad is all the rookie chasers clogging roads. Had there been many tornadoes it would have got ugly with chasers trapped.

BB37
05-20-2019, 06:34 PM
The warm front has turned back into a cold front. It swept thru Surrey Hills far NW OKC about 10 minutes ago and the temp dropped a good 10 degrees. That’ll kill off most of the tornado threat.

gopokes88
05-20-2019, 06:36 PM
*lives in one of the most unpredictable parts of the entire world as relates to weather*

WHY CANT YOU GUYS GET THIS RIGHT, INSTEAD YOU SEND EVERYONE INTO PANICS

It’s hard. And there’s millions of factors.

BG918
05-20-2019, 06:41 PM
The storms around Altus still look pretty nasty

jn1780
05-20-2019, 06:42 PM
First world problems. Pretty much everyone has access to instant information and they probably seeked out the hyped up the reports that their now complaining about now.

When I was a kid in 99. My mom and I got out of a movie and didnt really expect a huge tornado heading towards moore. I looked backed at historical outlooks and they were showing a slight risk morning of. Luckily, we have advance to the point where we can probably see events like May 3rd days away.

Outhunder
05-20-2019, 06:43 PM
No way anyone can justify the scare tactics. This is out of control.

C_M_25
05-20-2019, 06:45 PM
If people ever understand the concept behind risks and percentages, they will stop demanding “it’s gonna be an F4 at 5:45 across May and NW 50th” and “it’s gonna be absolutely nothing” forecasts.

If you want certainties, stay away from weather forecasts, considering that everything impacts them and can change the potentials with every run of the forecast. All they can do is communicate the risk, they canÂ’t help that after how many years with the NWS in our backyard people still donÂ’t understand that a 90% risk doesnÂ’t mean anything is gonna happen.

You underestimate people’s capabilities to understand probability and statistics. For instance, they released a 45% probability of seeing a tornado within a 20 mile radius around any specific point within that polygon. That polygon was probably 40% of the state. So 40% of the state had slightly less than a coin flip to see a tornado within 20 miles of their doors. How many tornadoes where there today so far? So 38% of the state is that unlucky? Stay away from the casinos for a while Oklahoma! What that tells me is that the meteorologists missed something today. Where all the ingredients there for a major outbreak? Yes. Could there still be tornadoes? Yes. Was the forecast overblown? Yes. Hindsight is always 20/20. BUT the amount of hype was off the charts for this event, and it fizzled...to this point. Schools closed. Businesses closed. The state essentially shut down. How much money was lost because of this? I understand that we’re all better off safe than sorry. We’ve seen what happens when we’re not. However, if you start to erode the credibility of our meteorologists, you have that “boy who cried wolf “ scenario. All that being said, meteorologists have an incredibly tough job. Predicting the outcome of such a dynamic system is so incredibly tough! There are so many judgment calls to make. I just wish that we wouldn’t overdo it with all of the hyperbole. It only freaks people out.

brian72
05-20-2019, 07:10 PM
David Payne will be on the Flood Warning now and straight line winds (should've been all along). They can land a Man on the Moon, but they can't tell that Colder air was going to push through? We have some crappy Weather models out there.

Celebrator
05-20-2019, 07:11 PM
just drove home from Baptist Hosp. area to Danforth/I-35 area and temp difference was 16 cooler in Edmond. Crazy boundary. Keep moving south Mr. boundary!

jn1780
05-20-2019, 07:14 PM
David Payne will be on the Flood Warning now and straight line winds (should've been all along). They can land a Man on the Moon, but they can't tell that Colder air was going to push through? We have some crappy Weather models out there.

It is easier to land on the moon. It's been in the same orbit for billions of years. Predicting cascading events with changing variables is difficult.

I think funding for NOAA has been an issue dont have the latest and greatest tech.

Teo9969
05-20-2019, 07:29 PM
Anything going to happen tomorrow/later this week?

d-usa
05-20-2019, 07:34 PM
This thread is giving me flashbacks to Inhofe and his snowball.

Bunty
05-20-2019, 07:55 PM
I figured this weather event would mainly be about the rain. Stillwater missed the afternoon rain, but getting it now.

http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/realtime/rainrfc.48hr.png

iambecoming
05-20-2019, 07:57 PM
So I’m guessing no rain for the metro? At least nowhere close to the 9 inches Payne was still forecasting earlier.

Sirsteve
05-20-2019, 07:59 PM
I figured this weather event would mainly be about the rain. Stillwater missed the afternoon rain, but getting it now.

http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/realtime/rainrfc.48hr.png

Well i did get one thing accomplished on this so-called PDS day. It got me motivated to clean out my storm shelter and restock it ......so theres that!!!

SoonerDave
05-20-2019, 08:04 PM
The front, looking at the images on Ch9 radar.looks like it is literally crossing WRWA and creeping down I240 in SW OKC.

Anonymous.
05-20-2019, 08:14 PM
As others have mentioned. The cold pool from the constant convection in the NW has altered the boundaries to be vasty different than morning forecasts indicated. All storms approaching OKC at this time are not surface-based, but are severe.

We should see these storms come through. Then a break with a second round of storms late overnight that comes out from NW TX and SW OK.

jonny d
05-20-2019, 08:16 PM
The storms are literally trying their hardest to avoid the metro. Not a single solitary storm is headed to the metro. Kinda pathetic, actually. Not even rain.

okatty
05-20-2019, 08:26 PM
Got winds around 60 and absolutely POURING in far NW OKC. West and NW going to get hammered with rain - further south may not get a lot. Fine line between flooding and not a lot.

NikonNurse
05-20-2019, 08:27 PM
"The storms are literally trying their hardest to avoid the metro. Not a single solitary storm is headed to the metro. Kinda pathetic, actually. Not even rain."


Not sure what radar YOU are looking at. I see a whole line of storms slowly moving east...and uh...on the maps I grew up with, OKC right in the middle.
Its like you are the one who stops at car wrecks on the highway in hopes of seeing blood.

Be grateful you are in a state where you can be prepared and disappointed instead of surprised and....dead.

jonny d
05-20-2019, 08:48 PM
"The storms are literally trying their hardest to avoid the metro. Not a single solitary storm is headed to the metro. Kinda pathetic, actually. Not even rain."


Not sure what radar YOU are looking at. I see a whole line of storms slowly moving east...and uh...on the maps I grew up with, OKC right in the middle.
Its like you are the one who stops at car wrecks on the highway in hopes of seeing blood.

Be grateful you are in a state where you can be prepared and disappointed instead of surprised and....dead.

Oh, I am grateful. But I do hate that the meteorologists use doom and gloom language to scare people (all a ratings ploy, in my opinion). And now, MWC, where I live, will literally not see a drop from the storm of the year, as some called it. Just wish they would hold off on the armageddon predictions. Tell people to be aware, but don't scare people.

d-usa
05-20-2019, 08:52 PM
I know the government funded National Weather Service is just trying to get their Facebook page views up to monetize their social media.

NikonNurse
05-20-2019, 08:57 PM
Oh, I am grateful. But I do hate that the meteorologists use doom and gloom language to scare people (all a ratings ploy, in my opinion). And now, MWC, where I live, will literally not see a drop from the storm of the year, as some called it. Just wish they would hold off on the armageddon predictions. Tell people to be aware, but don't scare people.


but with a majority of the population desensitized to absolutely everything....you HAVE to use that language anymore....to get some kind of response...

BG918
05-20-2019, 09:03 PM
Shifting now to a serious flash flood threat overnight. I had thought that was a bigger possibility with the lack of clearing and daytime heating. Just didn’t have the right set up for very many discreet supercells.

jonny d
05-20-2019, 09:10 PM
but with a majority of the population desensitized to absolutely everything....you HAVE to use that language anymore....to get some kind of response...

It's a catch 22. You have to use hyperbole, but the hyperbole not living up to it desensitizes people.

Sirsteve
05-20-2019, 09:22 PM
Shifting now to a serious flash flood threat overnight. I had thought that was a bigger possibility with the lack of clearing and daytime heating. Just didn’t have the right set up for very many discreet supercells.

The National severe storms labs and the Storm prediction center seemed to think so or they wouldnt have made that ominous forecast. They thought even with the cloud deck and no heating there would be enough instability with the warm front coming through and all the shear in the atmosphere to overcome that. They were as confident as i have ever heard them in their wording that this would be a major tornado outbreak. I will end this with saying i am thankful it was a huge bust.

Sirsteve
05-20-2019, 09:35 PM
Oh, I am grateful. But I do hate that the meteorologists use doom and gloom language to scare people (all a ratings ploy, in my opinion). And now, MWC, where I live, will literally not see a drop from the storm of the year, as some called it. Just wish they would hold off on the armageddon predictions. Tell people to be aware, but don't scare people.

Jonny D im a fellow Midwest city resident as well. I couldnt agree with you more. I heard things today that frankly kinda got me nervous, like multiple rounds of super-cell T-storms, gigantic hail, 80 mph straight line winds, large destructive long-track tornadoes, historic flooding, every category of severe type weather was at the highest level and we havent seen this type of event in several years. That is hype to the extreme and if we are that de-sensitized that it takes that kind of language to make us get off our butt and be pro-active then that is pretty sad

Outhunder
05-20-2019, 10:04 PM
This morning Jed castles compared today to may 3rd. If that's not hype, I don't know what is.

OKC Guy
05-20-2019, 10:35 PM
Oh, I am grateful. But I do hate that the meteorologists use doom and gloom language to scare people (all a ratings ploy, in my opinion). And now, MWC, where I live, will literally not see a drop from the storm of the year, as some called it. Just wish they would hold off on the armageddon predictions. Tell people to be aware, but don't scare people.

I have to disagree. If they don’t hype it and it turns bad you have mass people trapped in cars on road and kids in school. We had deaths from school collapse and people stranded on roads.

6 years ago I had family in town and we went to Memorial then Zios. While at Zios I noticed workers hugged around and asked what it was. They said a tornado was SW or metro and thenI checked it out and told my out of town family I needed to get them back to hotel so I could go pick up son at his work (he was dropped off).

So we drove to hotel just east of ballpark and there was a traffic jam to get into parking ballpark parking garage. Once thru I dropped family off and beat feet to 235. I got stuck on 23rd street overpass it was worse than any rush hour just stuck with small hail. There had been a wreck close to 44. It took me 20 minutes to go 3 miles and people were driving in side lanes and it was a panicked mess. Once thru it was fine and I picked up son and went home. Then it hit and there was traffic jams all over metro.

So the thing is if they under predict and people get killed you have outcry why they didn’t make more push on predictions. The data showed some of the highest levels of potential so they made the right call. We are a metro of 1,400,000 people and its not some small feat to get them home safe in bad weather. Every weatherperson all over local and country predicted this as highest possible outbreak. I can give them a pass. Its the excessive coverage for a regular storm not predicted that upsets me. But this one was justified based on the facts they had at the time.

Bunty
05-21-2019, 12:12 AM
School called off in Stillwater for Tuesday. Over 6 inches of rain have fallen on rural north Stillwater. Imagine school busses trying to get anywhere there. Boomer Lake, already was full, is surely well over the spillway. Stillwater area rainfall amounts from wunderground as of 11:45 pm Monday:

https://stillwaterweather.com/photos/stwrainamounts.png

BoulderSooner
05-21-2019, 05:52 AM
6 tornados missed the metro by like 30 miles ... wow this is a tough crowd ..


o and tornados still going as of 5 am this morning just east of the metro ..

BBatesokc
05-21-2019, 06:12 AM
I have to disagree. If they don’t hype it and it turns bad you have mass people trapped in cars on road and kids in school. We had deaths from school collapse and people stranded on roads.

...

But when they over hype (and do it repeatedly) then you become completely desensitized to it - which can lead to the same sort of doom and gloom you predicted in your post.

I personally think they love getting the population all worked up, knowing plenty of the sheep will go "well, better safe than sorry" if their predictions are way off.

Just give me the forecast without all the foreboding.

I'm so done with local meteorologists that we don't even tune in. We just binged watched Netflix and kept the iPad on a weather app and watched the radar.

BoulderSooner
05-21-2019, 06:15 AM
But when they over hype (and do it repeatedly) then you become completely desensitized to it - which can lead to the same sort of doom and gloom you predicted in your post.

I personally think they love getting the population all worked up, knowing plenty of the sheep will go "well, better safe than sorry" if their predictions are way off.

Just give me the forecast without all the foreboding.

I'm so done with local meteorologists that we don't even tune in. We just binged watched Netflix and kept the iPad on a weather app and watched the radar.

the nws could care less about local tv ratings ..

jonny d
05-21-2019, 06:24 AM
the nws could care less about local tv ratings ..

They might not, but Mike Morgan and David Payne do.

sooner333
05-21-2019, 07:13 AM
I think there are sometimes the weather is hyped up to get ratings. It probably happens more in the winter, but sometimes in the spring. Sometimes they mignt day something is a moderate risk using their own terminology compared to what the NWS says is a slight risk.

Yesterday was not one of those days. The NWS used as strong of language as they ever have. The only other time it was used a massive tornado broke out that was historical in proportions. The signals also continued to get worse all the way up to the early afternoon.

I think the overhype comes from the people. We saw what happened six years ago and don’t want to be out when it happens again. So we heed warnings more than we would have before. That overhype isn’t a bad thing.

Pete
05-21-2019, 07:24 AM
As an employer, it's hard to know what to do.

I was worried going into the morning but Mondays are big days at the Gazette; we have to put the paper to bed by the afternoon so it can be delivered on Wednesday.

So, we really didn't have the option of not being open or closing by noon. In the end, we were able to get out of there by 3 PM and of course, we didn't even get rain until much later. I would have felt really foolish if we had canceled the whole workday, however. And it would have been a full day of wasted productivity.


One very good thing about our workplace: We have a full basement that would be a fantastic storm shelter. In fact, I live close enough that I'll be heading there with my animals if my house is ever under immediate threat.

jn1780
05-21-2019, 07:26 AM
With social media, there is no way to accurately describe yesterday's conditions without people magnifying things to hype conditions. People are looking for the doom and gloom reports just to post. The local TV guys are making up a smaller and smaller portion of the sources of information year by year.

jn1780
05-21-2019, 07:30 AM
As an employer, it's hard to know what to do.

I was worried going into the morning but Mondays are big days at the Gazette; we have to put the paper to bed by the afternoon so it can be delivered on Wednesday morning.

So, we really didn't have the option of not being open or closing by noon. In the end, we were able to get out of there by 3 PM and of course, we didn't even get rain until much later. I would have felt really foolish if we had canceled the whole workday, however. And it would have been a full day of wasted productivity.


One very good thing about our workplace: We have a full basement that would be a fantastic storm shelter. In fact, I live close enough that I'll be heading there with my animals if my house is ever under immediate threat.

3 was a good call. There was a nws discussion that called for development by 2 to 3 in south central oklahoma. Only one storm formed from that boundary before cap slightly built back in. It wasnt s strong cap, but there was little to no lift.

Pete
05-21-2019, 07:34 AM
^

Yeah, I was monitoring that closely.

We have a couple of people who live a relatively good distance away and we sent them home around 2.

BBatesokc
05-21-2019, 09:04 AM
the nws could care less about local tv ratings ..

Which is why I simply cut out the middleman (local TV weather dudes and dudettes) and just pull up the NWS data on my smart device and avoid the talking fear mongering meteorologists. You can tell your audience that this is looking serious and it's a PDS or whatever, but the local news goes much further than that an it's ridiculous.

jedicurt
05-21-2019, 09:10 AM
I have to disagree. If they don’t hype it and it turns bad you have mass people trapped in cars on road and kids in school. We had deaths from school collapse and people stranded on roads.


yes... but we also have had local media personalities who said on the air, while trying to hype it up, that people need to get in their cars and drive away from this storm... see the problem there...

SoonerDave
05-21-2019, 09:16 AM
3 was a good call. There was a nws discussion that called for development by 2 to 3 in south central oklahoma. Only one storm formed from that boundary before cap slightly built back in. It wasnt s strong cap, but there was little to no lift.

I think you had so much convection in that cold region north of the front that it basically, for lack of a better term, sucked the energy out of the region everyone was most concerned about. The atmosphere was changing so rapidly that the few storms that tried to go up in SC OK in the 1pm-2pm time frame would go away almost as quickly as they started, as if they just never had time to get organized before the broader convection north just forced the issue away from the area that was seemingly primed to "pop."

SoonerDave
05-21-2019, 09:20 AM
yes... but we also have had local media personalities who said on the air, while trying to hype it up, that people need to get in their cars and drive away from this storm... see the problem there...

In all fairness, I think we had *one* notorious local met who did that, and we all know who that was. FWIW, I know that emergency preparedness briefings were drawn up following that incident as a model of "what not to do." It was an embarrassment.

jn1780
05-21-2019, 09:27 AM
I think you had so much convection in that cold region north of the front that it basically, for lack of a better term, sucked the energy out of the region everyone was most concerned about. The atmosphere was changing so rapidly that the few storms that tried to go up in SC OK in the 1pm-2pm time frame would go away almost as quickly as they started, as if they just never had time to get organized before the broader convection north just forced the issue away from the area that was seemingly primed to "pop."

The air north of warmfront was unseasonably cold for this time of year. I saw a couple of meteorologist talk about that before this event. Too much cloud cover also in warm sector.

bchris02
05-21-2019, 09:48 AM
Which is why I simply cut out the middleman (local TV weather dudes and dudettes) and just pull up the NWS data on my smart device and avoid the talking fear mongering meteorologists. You can tell your audience that this is looking serious and it's a PDS or whatever, but the local news goes much further than that an it's ridiculous.

Even doing that though this looked pretty dire. The language from the SPC was probably as high-end as I've seen since 5/31/13 if not above that. It was a very scary day. And the thing is, had conditions been a little more favorable then it could have been the storm of the century.

This is another example of how easy it is for a high-end setup to go bust if just one thing doesn't fall into place like predicted. And by bust, I wouldn't call yesterday a total bust but it wasn't near as high-end as predicted.

chuck5815
05-21-2019, 09:51 AM
i would say that yesterday was a pretty big win for OKC.

huge F5s are just bad PR all the way around, unless you are drinking them at COOP Ale Works, of course.

SoonerDave
05-21-2019, 09:58 AM
The air north of warmfront was unseasonably cold for this time of year. I saw a couple of meteorologist talk about that before this event. Too much cloud cover also in warm sector.

The one thing I did see that gave me pause even within the SPC forecasts was the note that soundings were showing MLCAPE's in the 3500-4000 range, which is high, but I remember a lot more attention being drawn in situations with values more in the 5-6K (and up) range. I think the consensus was that the overall environment was so primed that the storms would be able to leverage that amount of energy. Had the actual values been more in that range, I think we would have seen more of the storms everyone expected.

Celebrator
05-21-2019, 10:53 AM
Which is why I simply cut out the middleman (local TV weather dudes and dudettes) and just pull up the NWS data on my smart device and avoid the talking fear mongering meteorologists. You can tell your audience that this is looking serious and it's a PDS or whatever, but the local news goes much further than that an it's ridiculous.

This is exactly what I did for the first time with this event. I stopped watching local news after last Friday night and went with NWS Norman Twitter feed exclusively Sat., Sun., and all day yesterday. It was very freeing not to be tied to wall-to-wall coverage and hyperbole. Had the weather radio for the overnight warnings and just checked the NWS Norman Twitter feed when it went off for more info. It was great. Less stressful.