The ingredients are there though for a nightmare scenario tomorrow.

That's precisely the kind of language that isn't helpful. "Nightmare scenario" isn't scientific or meterorological or really anything but inflammatory, and one of the reasons ol Venture started this forum many years back was to counter it. Anon does a great job of filling Venture's shoes these days and I just don't favor invoking the hareum-scareum language here.

Yes, tomorrow is a concerning setup, but all any of us can do is be informed and prepared. Not scared.

This is a unique event. Many people are saying they've never seen anything quite like it. However, the thing about these high-end events is if just one thing doesn't set up the right way it could change the entire outcome. The ingredients are there though for a nightmare scenario tomorrow.

As jn1780 said, the entire thing turning into an MCS mess by the time it gets to the metro is a possibility. If that happens, flooding will be the primary risk and not tornadoes. Worst case is warm front stalled out just north of the metro and numerous discreet supercells moving northeast along it ahead of the main MCS.

The MCS scenario looks a lot more likely than discreet supercells, at least in central/eastern OK. Then the threat of serious flash flooding is a real possibility which is much more dangerous than tornadoes as it affects way more people. Rivers are also running high so any more inflow could cause issues there as well.

What’s MCS

What’s MCS


A mesoscale convective system (MCS) is a complex of thunderstorms that becomes organized on a scale larger than the individual thunderstorms but smaller than extratropical cyclones, and normally persists for several hours or more.

So basically a mini hurricane?

So basically a mini hurricane?

Some MCS systems can exhibit radar and satellite characteristics similar to that of a hurricane, but the broader term is meant to convey a very large region of storm-related atmospheric "lift." "Mesoscale convective system" taken literally means "very large scale uplift", and can happen when close, discrete storms start to merge.

The MCS scenario looks a lot more likely than discreet supercells, at least in central/eastern OK. Then the threat of serious flash flooding is a real possibility which is much more dangerous than tornadoes as it affects way more people. Rivers are also running high so any more inflow could cause issues there as well.

I think the flooding potential is becoming a major player in today's storm situation. If anyone lives near an area that is prone to flooding, be aware that moisture potential and existing saturated ground exacerbate that risk. Rainfall amounts are projecting in some areas to be as high as 5"+ in the span of just a few hours.

Anon, are you going to be in a position to do any live chatting or similar coverage today? Might post the URL for any newcomers as the day progresses.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Lines and map colors don't determine what will happen, but for what its worth. OKC metro is now in high risk zone.

Morning northern storms were not as intense as expected.

2 questions: Are we looking at the historical start well off to the SW of Metro and move toward the metro from there?

If that SW>NE pattern can be expected, what's the Hobart >Tuttle>Mustang>SWOKC>Downtown timeline look like?

2 questions: Are we looking at the historical start well off to the SW of Metro and move toward the metro from there?

If that SW>NE pattern can be expected, what's the Hobart >Tuttle>Mustang>SWOKC>Downtown timeline look like?

I think that's a difficult question because elevated stuff way out to the east of dryline could become surfaced based. NWS has timing anywhere from 10:00 am onwards.

Small showers right now are firing off warm front that is quickly surging north.

i think many people are staying home today... traffic was significantly lighter on the interstates this morning.

I am currently out of town in a bad place data-wise. So of course this is the first High Risk day in over 2 years.

Morning convection blasting off now. So we should see destabilization taking place as we head into the afternoon. Short-Range models do not paint a fun scene. Looking like we will see supercells develop out ahead of the dryline in addition to storms actually on the dryline.

https://tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2019052012/hrrr_ref_frzn_scus_12.png

Terminology like "life-altering, catastrophic tornadoes" is being thrown out.

This does look like an absolute worst-case scenario for OKC.

Worst-case scenario would be for an event to actually verify and happen. No point in scaring people when their already scared. Today has everyone's attention.

Mother Nature hates Oklahoma.

In all seriousness, stay weather aware, people. Don't let the hyperbole drive you insane, as it won't help. Just be respectful of the weather, and stay up to date.

Terminology like "life-altering, catastrophic tornadoes" is being thrown out.

This does look like an absolute worst-case scenario for OKC.

even if it were only an EF1, if it directly hits your home... it would be "life-altering, and catastrophic", for the person whose home was hit...

and this is why phrases like this have no basis in a scientific dissuasion of weather forecasting, and should not be used, as they are only there to incite fear.

even if it were only an EF1, if it directly hits your home... it would be "life-altering, and catastrophic", for the person whose home was hit...

and this is why phrases like this have no basis in a scientific dissuasion of weather forecasting, and should not be used, as they are only there to incite fear.

I wonder if people who use such inflammatory terms have actually experienced a hit: my family has. "Life-altering".....hmmm....maybe for a time, but we re-built. "Catastrophic"......this word is like the word "epic" for me. It's lost some of it's depth and awe in the keyboard warrior age. You are absolutely right: these phrases are only there to incite fear.

Terminology like "life-altering, catastrophic tornadoes" is being thrown out.

This does look like an absolute worst-case scenario for OKC.

It is a very serious situation for sure, as we're in High Risks both for flooding and severe weather, but just wait and see what happens. I highly recommend following the NWS/SPC on this rather than chasers. Speaking as someone who has occasionally chased over the past couple years, many chasers (esp. amateur ones) are very prone to hype and over-"excitement". They want to see stuff. Don't trust them over professionals.

We on that Threat Level Midnight, bros.

The event is about an hour or two from getting started in the Texas Panhandle. 15292

Is the chat still up and usable? If so, can someone post the address. I thought I had it book marked but I can't find it. Thanks!

What kind of timeline are we looking at for OKC? Trying to gauge when I need to start heading home from work!

curious how the cloudiness will affect storm growth, it hasn't started to clear out yet

What kind of timeline are we looking at for OKC? Trying to gauge when I need to start heading home from work!

I would aim to get home by 2. 3 at the latest.

Latest thinking is 2 to 3pm for storms to form.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0699.html
15293

curious how the cloudiness will affect storm growth, it hasn't started to clear out yet

See mesocale discussion I just posted. Things are already starting to bubble. Warm wet air is flooding in from the south. Already dewpoints in mid 60s up past I-40.

See mesocale discussion I just posted. Things are already starting to bubble. Warm wet air is flooding in from the south. Already dewpoints in mid 60s up past I-40.

Interesting it mentions the possibility of this being a PDS

Interesting it mentions the possibility of this being a PDS

When the watch is issued, it will very likely be issued as a PDS. NWS forecasters have been using strong terms to describe the severe weather threat for today.

When the watch is issued, it will very likely be issued as a PDS. NWS forecasters have been using strong terms to describe the severe weather threat for today.

SPC release indicates a PDS watch will be issued between 1-2pm due to very early stages of development in southern Oklahoma.

I think the flooding potential is becoming a major player in today's storm situation. If anyone lives near an area that is prone to flooding, be aware that moisture potential and existing saturated ground exacerbate that risk. Rainfall amounts are projecting in some areas to be as high as 5"+ in the span of just a few hours.

Yep, Stillwater is still in the running to get the most rain in the state by late Tuesday. So far around 1.50" has fallen, according to Mesonet.
http://stillwaterweather.com/photos/rainmay21.jpg

SPC release indicates a PDS watch will be issued between 1-2pm due to very early stages of development in southern Oklahoma.

One has been issued now for the southern TX Panhandle down to Lubbock and then east - all to the SW of OK so far.

Friendly Reminder: around 700 Oklahomans die every year in car crashes. 281 Oklahomans died in tornadoes during the 60 year period of 1950-2010. Assuming 2019 is average for car deaths, we've already lost more Oklahomans to car crashes in the 6 months of 2019 than we in the aforementioned 60 YEAR period.

Terminology like "life-altering, catastrophic tornadoes" is being thrown out.

This does look like an absolute worst-case scenario for OKC.

Until storms start proving themselves, I'm more concerned about the potential for flooding in the state. The ground is saturated and can't deal with heavy downpours.

Really, the situation isn't worth worrying much about until a tornado warning is issued for your county. Then worry to death and if religious pray for protection.

We don't want people stuck in their cars in these supercells. People should be heading home by 3 if they can.

State closed up at 1:00 pm in the metro.

From NWS Norman:
12:39 pm - our latest weather balloon data shows the cap is pretty much gone over central Oklahoma. We are starting to see very early signs of storm development in several areas. Storms will get bad quickly. Stay alert!

The Ch 25 met says these storms will spin up out of nowhere and the forecast is even worse than what was predicted earlier. Mentioned something about sending the weather balloons up earlier and they came back with bad news.

is there going to be a chat?

State closed up at 1:00 pm in the metro.

OKCPS told all staff they were locking the doors at 12:00 and everyone had to be out of the buildings.

https://twitter.com/NWSSPC/status/1130542973060562946


PDS Tornado Watch # 199 is coming for Oklahoma. This is only the second watch in SPC history where every category of watch probabilities (torn, wind, hail) are at greater than 95%.

The only other watch like this was issued for Alabama on 27 April 2011.

Not good.

https://chatroll.com/embed/chat/wxstuff-live-chat?name=wxstuff-live-chat If anyone is looking for the chat.

https://chatroll.com/embed/chat/wxstuff-live-chat?name=wxstuff-live-chat If anyone is looking for the chat.

I'm getting a message that the event is full?

Can someone share a good live radar link - the mesonet site seems bogged down.

TIA!

Can someone share a good live radar link - the mesonet site seems bogged down.

TIA!

https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=tlx&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=no

Is OKC going to be spared? I know there is a while to go, but there is nothing to show OKC getting hit by anything as of now. Are those storms in Texas going to move east?

https://chatroll.com/embed/chat/wxstuff-live-chat?name=wxstuff-live-chat If anyone is looking for the chat.

Then animated one is here: https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=tlx&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yeshttp://

TORNADO WATCH

Areas Affected:
Atoka - Beckham - Blaine - Bryan - Caddo - Canadian - Carter - Cleveland - Coal - Comanche - Cotton - Creek - Custer - Dewey - Garfield - Garvin - Grady - Greer - Harmon - Hughes - Jackson - Jefferson - Johnston - Kingfisher - Kiowa - Lincoln - Logan - Love - Major - Marshall - McClain - Murray - Noble - Okfuskee - Oklahoma - Okmulgee - Osage - Pawnee - Payne - Pontotoc - Pottawatomie - Roger Mills - Seminole - Stephens - Tillman - Tulsa - Washi ta
Effective: Mon, 5/20 1:35pm Updated: Mon, 5/20 2:46pm Urgency: Expected
Expires: Mon, 5/20 10:00pm Severity: Severe Certainty: Likely

Details:

TORNADO WATCH 199 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATOKA BECKHAM BLAINE
BRYAN CADDO CANADIAN
CARTER CLEVELAND COAL
COMANCHE COTTON CREEK
CUSTER DEWEY GARFIELD
GARVIN GRADY GREER
HARMON HUGHES JACKSON
JEFFERSON JOHNSTON KINGFISHER
KIOWA LINCOLN LOGAN
LOVE MAJOR MARSHALL
MCCLAIN MURRAY NOBLE
OKFUSKEE OKLAHOMA OKMULGEE
OSAGE PAWNEE PAYNE
PONTOTOC POTTAWATOMIE ROGER MILLS
SEMINOLE STEPHENS TILLMAN
TULSA WASHI TA

Is OKC going to be spared? I know there is a while to go, but there is nothing to show OKC getting hit by anything as of now. Are those storms in Texas going to move east?
Everything is drifting east. OKC threat may be later this afternoon. Its only about 3.

Everything is drifting east. OKC threat may be later this afternoon. Its only about 3.

I wasn't questioning anyone on here. I am very amateur at this, and saw nothing (as of yet) troubling. But I also knew there was a long way to go.

Not a threat to OKC proper, but channel 9 has eyes on a weak tornado NE of Okarche, heading NNE.

Here is an updated snapshot forecast of around 7-8 pm. We should see a defined cluster or line of supercells marching ENE into C OK. Some indication of some storms lining out and becoming less dangerous, but there may (likely) still be very dangerous supercells established within the cluster. Also somewhere potentially just W/NW of OKC area we could see a cell or two that rides along a triple point boundary that may actually alter the boundary itself if it can get established. Wind profiles just after dark look pretty ideal for surface based spin across basically all of W and C OK.

This is a full nowcast situation and you should tune into the NWS and local TV stations for information.

https://tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2019052019/hrrr_ref_frzn_scus_6.png

Severe activity seems to be staying N and W of the metro. Is OKC out of the woods on this event?

New MD is out confirming latest model guidance. Development ahead of dryline looking less likely and this will be a sunset showdown across C OK with a line of supercells.

New MD is out confirming latest model guidance. Development ahead of dryline looking less likely and this will be a sunset showdown across C OK with a line of supercells.

Does this mean late night rumblings for OKC?

I think for us in OKC that we have dodged a bullet. At least that's what it feels like from listening to all the hype. And that's fine with me.

I think for us in OKC that we have dodged a bullet. At least that's what it feels like from listening to all the hype. And that's fine with me.

Yep. Seems we missed on everything including the rain.

Is the Cool side of the boundary killing the Tornados from fully developing? 55 degress in Elk city that's crazy

Umm, Yes. One order of a line of storms please. Appreciate it.

New MD is out confirming latest model guidance. Development ahead of dryline looking less likely and this will be a sunset showdown across C OK with a line of supercells.

Is there a consensus on the reason why there was no independent initiation in SC OK? SPC was saying they were seeing early signs of initiation in the region prior to the PDS being issued.....

Is the Cool side of the boundary killing the Tornados from fully developing? 55 degress in Elk city that's crazy

In this environment, yes.