The stormchasers discord hasn't been this excited in years. To me that's usually a bad sign for weather lol.

And the dryline looks to be setting up in just the right place...from around El Reno down to Chickasha. Farther west and it's usually a squall line or MCS by the time it gets here and farther east means most of the severe is east of I-35. We can't know for sure until around the 48 hour window (or maybe even the day of) but this could end up being a very classic PDS setup for OKC.

The stormchasers discord hasn't been this excited in years. To me that's usually a bad sign for weather lol.

Or when Rick Smith from NWS starts quoting twister.
https://twitter.com/ounwcm/status/1128271452376113153


To be clear though to those who don't know, stormchasers are excited by the number of consecutive days in a row that they will get to chase which increases their chances. Not that one day in particular will be exceptionally bad, although we could get one of those days with this series of storms.

Edit: Looking at a forecast sounding for Monday would seem to apply that will be a TDS day. Again, way out in the future.

New Kids on the Block mixtape tour Saturday night. Damn right I'll be there.

New Kids on the Block mixtape tour Saturday night. Damn right I'll be there.

I think I’ll watch the tornado coverage:D

I think I’ll watch the tornado coverage:D Dry line looks through the Metro by 7 so maybe east of OKC. Plus storms in the Morning. Looks messy for Saturday still. Monday is the day.

Dry line looks through the Metro by 7 so maybe east of OKC. Plus storms in the Morning. Looks messy for Saturday still. Monday is the day.

It doesn't look like the "historic" week like it did yesterday. Still active, but not a slam dunk like people were talking about yesterday.

Awe, darn. We waited a day, and everything changed. I am kinda glad, since I move into my new house this coming week.

Glad to hear my all you can drink craft beer odds are looking better for Saturday night.

It doesn't look like the "historic" week like it did yesterday. Still active, but not a slam dunk like people were talking about yesterday.

Yep Now we are getting into the IF stage. IF storms can fire on Friday. IF Storms don't linger too long Saturday morning. IF IF IF. It was mass Panic on Tuesday. Now Wednesday we are at the IF stage and everyone seems to be backing off some

Now we have gone from Doom and Gloom on Tuesday to If's on Wednesday to well the timing isn't right on Thursday and thing might not line up. I would imagine tomorrow we will be at the storm was weaker or moved a different direction.

It's projected to be a big rain event for the state from Fri. to Tues. with Stillwater taking the most. I'll believe the hype when I see it.
https://stillwaterweather.com/photos/rainmapmay182019.jpg

May 23-29 doesn't look cool and dry.

http://www.wxforum.net/index.php?action=dlattach;topic=36307.0;attach=373 86;image

Now we have gone from Doom and Gloom on Tuesday to If's on Wednesday to well the timing isn't right on Thursday and thing might not line up. I would imagine tomorrow we will be at the storm was weaker or moved a different direction.

Grocery stores will be disappointed, they need more end of days type forecasts lol. I always wondered if weathermen and grocery stores worked in tandem. I imagine the discussion goes like this: “If you push higher snow fall or big bad tornadoes we’ll give you 20% take of the increased sales”

Grocery stores will be disappointed, they need more end of days type forecasts lol. I always wondered if weathermen and grocery stores worked in tandem. I imagine the discussion goes like this: “If you push higher snow fall or big bad tornadoes we’ll give you 20% take of the increased sales”

Not sure I'm going out to by groceries before a tornado just to have the tornado wipe them away. But yeah maybe a generator for a big thunderstorm. Looks like Friday the CAP holds

Friday looks like event zone will be extreme W OK. Saturday looks like still a good shot at storms from SW to C OK. This may be a giant MCD coming up out of NW TX.

Monday SPC has moved to a 30% probability inside the original 15. This does include a large swath from C OK into NW TX.

Looks like maybe some action still around Wednesday too.

Not sure I'm going out to by groceries before a tornado just to have the tornado wipe them away. But yeah maybe a generator for a big thunderstorm. Looks like Friday the CAP holds

You don’t understand Okies then lol. Any snow or ice or tornado “prediction” drives them to their local grocer to buy mega items. I have no idea why but they just do. I always figured grocers must be in on it and give the weathermen a cut of the action for overdoing the forecasts.

My tornado shelter is pre-stocked so I don’t need to go. And I have enough pantry food to last a long time if everything is shut down.

:Smiley259Always good to have 8 or 10 food buckets around in Oklahoma

https://store.jimbakkershow.com/product-category/food/entrees/buckets/

:Smiley259Always good to have 8 or 10 food buckets around in Oklahoma

https://store.jimbakkershow.com/product-category/food/entrees/buckets/

With Costco here now folks can stock up there:

https://www.costco.com/all-emergency-food.html

Its looking like there will be a window of opportunity to destabilization to occur tomorrow after morning storms. Still a lot of uncertainty, but the door is cracked open.

Its looking like there will be a window of opportunity to destabilization to occur tomorrow after morning storms. Still a lot of uncertainty, but the door is cracked open.

Yes and I hate to be that person I think 3 days out is still too far out but Monday if things can come together just right could be one of those days. Everything is there just needs to come together.

Yes and I hate to be that person I think 3 days out is still too far out but Monday if things can come together just right could be one of those days. Everything is there just needs to come together.

Meaning large tornadoes?

Yes and I hate to be that person I think 3 days out is still too far out but Monday if things can come together just right could be one of those days. Everything is there just needs to come together.

NWS Norman talked very strongly about Monday in this afternoon's AFD.

nm

Severe thunderstorm warnings out for the storms moving into the Metro from the SW right now. Looks like large hail will be the main threat.

Monday is still the day. If everything still looks the same when Monday comes, it will be a high risk day.

Looks like the main blob today will hit a lot farther west than models were showing so that helps with this afternoon’s threat correct?

Well...the storm that just moved north through the city will have ruined everyone's plans to sleep in. Just a bit of hail at my place, but some crazy lightning and thunder.

Monday is still the day. If everything still looks the same when Monday comes, it will be a high risk day.

The Numbers are off the Charts for Monday. About as high as you can get for Sheer. Moderate Risk is now out wouldn't be shocked if it's High at some point even before storms start.

The Numbers are off the Charts for Monday. About as high as you can get for Sheer. Moderate Risk is now out wouldn't be shocked if it's High at some point even before storms start.

They should issue a high risk with Day 2 outlook tomorrow in order to cause the forecast to bust Monday. Lol

I haven’t seen recent posts from Anonymous. What’s going on?

They should issue a high risk with Day 2 outlook tomorrow in order to cause the forecast to bust Monday. Lol

Or Mass Panic only to get rain. :)

One thing Monday wont already be in place. Its warm front starts off along red river in the morning. So there is question on how far north it goes.

Hey guys. I am currently out of town so I don’t have normal access and everything that I usually do. Of course I won’t be back in OKC until Tuesday, but I will still be trying to keep watch on what is happening.

Right now for Monday afternoon the SPC has Moderate marked for all of C and W OK. This is usually SOP for potentially dangerous events. I think we could see upgrade to High risk on the morning of the event, but it will likely depend on the shear parameters that look to setup for either discrete cells coming off the dryline versus a large cluster or line of storms. At this time, it does appear that discrete supercells will be the result. And this could lead to several rounds of storms producing multiple tornadoes and large hail. If storms can remain separated enough, large and long-tracking tornadoes look possible, but this is nearly impossible to forecast even on day of. We will have to see what we have Monday morning. More heat = more danger. The moisture will very much be in place.

Again sorry for the lack of updates, I am posting this from mobile.

Some really amazing lightening off to the NW tonight. 15286

The Sunday Morning Computer models are hinting at a major tornado outbreak now for Central and West Central Oklahoma. I'm sure it will change again but this is not looking good for central Oklahoma

The Sunday Morning Computer models are hinting at a major tornado outbreak now for Central and West Central Oklahoma. I'm sure it will change again but this is not looking good for central Oklahoma

What model are you looking at?

It seems to me that most of the CAMs (Hi Res models) are having trouble lifting the warm front as far to the north as the NAM and GFS have it, due to the large amount of rain that will stay north of it. Even the HRRR has the metro split.

It seems to me that most of the CAMs (Hi Res models) are having trouble lifting the warm front as far to the north as the NAM and GFS have it, due to the large amount of rain that will stay north of it. Even the HRRR has the metro split.

The warm front might be the key tomorrow. You don't want to be on or just south of warm front that is bad. Let's hope the warm front stays south. HRRR is model I was looking at. The Euro from last night was showing the warm front staying south of metro. Honestly not going to know until morning or even until storms form but I would be getting prepared today.

Anyone else keep refreshing for next day 2 outlook from SPC? Lol

Anyone else keep refreshing for next day 2 outlook from SPC? Lol

No change I'm sure it's hard for them to go high risk. I risk is normally for when storms start to form or have formed. They mentioned more SW Oklahoma. At this point who knows. I have seen some say storm 12-2 for the metro. Others are saying after 6. Either way if they form into a squall line then flooding become a bigger issue and more people died from flooding then the May 31 El Reno tornado

We should see early morning convection come out across the panhandle into W and SW OK early Monday morning. Models having tough time in regards to how much lingering convection will affect the forecast area across OK. It appears we should have near-immediate clearing of rain and clouds across SW and toward C OK. However, models are notoriously bad at forecasting coldpools leftover from large areas of previous convection.

Once heating builds back in the area, destabilization will rapidly build in with strong southerly winds and sunshine. A sharp dryline is expected to become established very near the OK/TX PH border. A round of storms should develop here or slightly east of here. These will be the most dangerous storms as initial cells could move east off the boundary and feast on the destable airmass ahead. Large hail and tornadoes will be the main threat for any cells that remain isolated. If too many storms form at once, we could have clusters of cells that interrupt each other versus a more dangerous scenario of 3-4 discrete supercells.

More storms will fire later on off to the west and a very long line of convection will sweep across the region late overnight. If this occurs, the main threat will be damaging winds and flooding, outside chance at weaker tornadoes along the front of the line like we usually see.

Here is snapshot from NAM showing the initial dryline development in the afternoon after morning convection moves off to the N/NE.

https://tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2019051918/nam3km_ref_frzn_scus_35.png

Mid del schools just cancelled school for tomorrow...

Mid del schools just cancelled school for tomorrow...

OKCPS and Moore have also.

OKCPS and Moore have also.

Beat me to it.

There was rumbling late Friday that Moore might cancel Monday's classes.

Deer Creek joined the list.

Not really surprised at all that schools closed. No one wants to be caught off guard again.

I’m sure most, if not all, are in their last week with days to spare. No point risking early dismissals or getting hit with severe weather during commute time.

It seems most high schools held their commencement over the weekend so I would bet almost everyone is through their final testing.

When I was a senior 15 years ago we had to take finals even after graduating. I thought it was crazy. You just get a diploma holder. I bet it makes not passing that much more painful.

When I was a senior 15 years ago we had to take finals even after graduating. I thought it was crazy. You just get a diploma holder. I bet it makes not passing that much more painful.

Most schools started moving commencement before finals years ago to prevent seniors from graduation night shenanigans. I graduated HS in 1983, and there were several people in my class that walked across the stage with nothing on but their gown. When we threw our hats, we threw them at the stage, trying to peg the vice-principal. Morterboards are deadly if thrown on target. You can blame my generation for the change.

FLOOD WATCH
Areas Affected:
Alfalfa - Atoka - Beckham - Blaine - Bryan - Caddo - Canadian - Carter - Cleveland - Coal - Comanche - Cotton - Custer - Dewey - Ellis - Garfield - Garvin - Grady - Grant - Greer - Harmon - Harper - Hughes - Jackson - Jefferson - Johnston - Kay - Kingfisher - Kiowa - Lincoln - Logan - Love - Major - Marshall - McClain - Murray - Noble - Oklahoma - Payne - Pontotoc - Pottawatomie - Roger Mills - Seminole - Stephens - Tillman - Was hita - Woods - Woodward
Effective: Thu, 5/23 7:00am Updated: Sun, 5/19 7:54pm Urgency: Future
Expires: Thu, 5/23 7:00pm Severity: Moderate Certainty: Possible

Details:

...Significant Flooding Possible Monday into Tuesday...
.Thunderstorms with heavy rainfall will be likely Monday through
early Tuesday, especially from western and central Oklahoma into
northern parts of Oklahoma. While western north Texas and
southeast Oklahoma may not see as long of a duration of heavy
rain, even brief heavy rainfall late Monday and early Tuesday may
lead to flooding and flash flooding.

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...
The National Weather Service in Norman has issued a
* From Monday morning through Tuesday morning.
* Significant flooding from heavy rainfall will be possible,
especially across western, central, and northern Oklahoma.
Precautionary/preparedness actions...
A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on
current forecasts.
You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible
Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be
prepared to take action should flooding develop.

Counties in dark green affected:

https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/png/oun.png

Tomorrow is looking like an absolute worst case tornado situation for the OKC area.

Tomorrow is looking like an absolute worst case tornado situation for the OKC area.

I think that's a tad extreme. The most recent regions put OKC at the east edge of the highest warning area...no, not ideal, have to take it seriously, but painting it quite that morbidly is a little over the top.

I think that's a tad extreme. The most recent regions put OKC at the east edge of the highest warning area...no, not ideal, have to take it seriously, but painting it quite that morbidly is a little over the top.

I'm going by the most recent HRRR for tomorrow and what people I know who are chasers are saying. It's really going to depend on where the warm front sets up but if it stalls just north of the metro in the late afternoon, this is going to be one of those days everyone will talk about for decades.

I'm going by the most recent HRRR for tomorrow and what people I know who are chasers are saying. It's really going to depend on where the warm front sets up but if it stalls just north of the metro in the late afternoon, this is going to be one of those days everyone will talk about for decades.

And if it doesn't, it won't be. All the grisly, forboding language helps nothing.

Explicit language helps to raise awareness though. We don’t need “you will die” language, but “the ingredients for a worst case scenario are there so be prepared” is okay with me.

Explicit language helps to raise awareness though. We don’t need “you will die” language, but “the ingredients for a worst case scenario are there so be prepared” is okay with me.

Nope. Crying wolf hasn't helped anyone. The meteorologists have been wrong so many times, that forcing it down our throats with such gusto is kind of overkill.

I think that's a tad extreme. The most recent regions put OKC at the east edge of the highest warning area...no, not ideal, have to take it seriously, but painting it quite that morbidly is a little over the top.

Not going to comment on what bchris said, but it should be pointed out that storms dont really care about lines drawn on the map. Plus, in theory the probabilities all within a moderate risk area are the same. Cant really think of it as bullseye where being further away from it you win although and some cases that applies.

That said I wouldn't be surprise if this evolves into a MCS mess with storms competing with each other by the time they get to the Metro area.

Nope. Crying wolf hasn't helped anyone. The meteorologists have been wrong so many times, that forcing it down our throats with such gusto is kind of overkill.

What exactly do you want them to say? At least when it comes to the NWS they have a set of predetermined criteria based on historical data to quantify a risk. People who knows nothing about weather forecasting need to have this simplified down in some way. Not fault computers models cant predict everything with 100 percent accuracy.

Let's face it. May 20th 2013, was slightly under predicted in initial risk. At least officially.

Nope. Crying wolf hasn't helped anyone. The meteorologists have been wrong so many times, that forcing it down our throats with such gusto is kind of overkill.

This is a unique event. Many people are saying they've never seen anything quite like it. However, the thing about these high-end events is if just one thing doesn't set up the right way it could change the entire outcome. The ingredients are there though for a nightmare scenario tomorrow.

As jn1780 said, the entire thing turning into an MCS mess by the time it gets to the metro is a possibility. If that happens, flooding will be the primary risk and not tornadoes. Worst case is warm front stalled out just north of the metro and numerous discreet supercells moving northeast along it ahead of the main MCS.