Seems like, unless more builds south and east, OKC will not get much going forward.

What is the long term pattern looking like as we approach May? I'm hearing there are hints of things possible picking up severe weather picking up. I know we havent been being hit as hard with the cold fronts the past couple of weeks.

What is the long term pattern looking like as we approach May? I'm hearing there are hints of things possible picking up severe weather picking up. I know we havent been being hit as hard with the cold fronts the past couple of weeks.

Last I heard is that high pressure is going to set up, keeping things relatively quiet. Don't want to speak to soon but as of right now, it's looking like severe weather this year isn't favoring the southern plains.

High pressure this early??? That doesn’t seem like it’s going to be a good thing for our rainy season and summer dry spell.

High pressure this early??? That doesn’t seem like it’s going to be a good thing for our rainy season and summer dry spell.

I follow some of the forum topics on stormtrack and they are getting increasingly excited about potential western troughing taking shape the first week of May. I dont know what their taking about half the time since I dont really know how to read models or chase storms. Lol I do get the impression though that were far from high pressure or "ridge of death" building in. I like hearing from our local guys on this forum since they put things in terms we understand.

Mostly cloudy today, perhaps some sun peaking out from W to E toward the end of the day. Beautiful end to the week and weekend shaping up.

Looking ahead into next week. Potential for a rain/storm pattern to setup somewhere across the plains. Not guaranteed by any means, but we could have multiple weak lows develop across NW TX into OK and ride up the N/NE for several days. This will keep rain chances in the forecast, but it does not look like a total wash out.

An interesting weather pattern to close out April and start May. Severe storms are possible later today and through the overnight hours. Severe storms are possible tomorrow too, depending on when storms can clear out or if they can clear off tomorrow. All forms of severe weather are possible with this system as it lingers through Wednesday.

We are in a flood watch for a day or so. Next few days:

This Afternoon
A chance of showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 5pm. Cloudy, with a steady temperature around 67. North wind around 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Tonight
Showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 7pm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. Low around 61. North wind 5 to 8 mph becoming calm. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible.

Tuesday
Showers and thunderstorms likely. Some of the storms could be severe and produce heavy rainfall. Cloudy, with a high near 74. South wind 6 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible.

Tuesday Night
A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Some of the storms could be severe. Cloudy, then gradually becoming partly cloudy, with a low around 63. South wind 8 to 11 mph.

Wednesday
A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 1pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 81. South wind 8 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.

Wednesday Night
A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 60

https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?x=195&y=105&site=oun&zmx=&zmy=&map_x=195&map_y=105#.XMdzvhZOnYU

Thunderstorm chances as far as the eye can see in the most recent NWS forecast. Straight through next weekend and into Monday, though obviously it won't storm every day.

Mike Morgan’s 5 and 6 PM forecasts focused more on heavy rain than anything with the boundary to the SE of the metro. No way he can be charged with hype crimes on this round.

Short-range models suggesting another round of storms developing this afternoon across SW and C OK. Tornado potential is there for embedded supercells along the line if it develops.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2019043015/hrrr_ref_frzn_scus_8.png

Looks like LLJ has kicked in more than previously expected. Could be a rough and tumble afternoon.

MD is out. TOR watch likely coming in the next hour. The greatest tornado threat is just S and E of OKC metro.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0477.gif


Mesoscale Discussion 0477
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1141 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2019

Areas affected...Oklahoma...Far North Texas...Far Northwest
Arkansas...Far Southeast Kansas...Far Southwest Missouri

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely

Valid 301641Z - 301845Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...The severe threat is likely to increase across the region
over the next few hours. A tornado threat, along with wind damage
and large hail will be possible as cells intensify. A tornado watch
will likely be needed relatively soon.

DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a stationary front
from north-central Oklahoma extending southwestward into northwest
Texas. Along and south of the boundary, surface dewpoints are in the
upper 60s and lower 70s F, which is contributing to a moderately
unstable airmass. The RAP is estimating MLCAPE values across the
warm sector in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. Along the instability
gradient, a small cluster of strong to severe thunderstorms is
developing in north-central to northeastern Oklahoma. This activity
is expected to continue to move northeastward across northeast
Oklahoma. The Tulsa WSR-88D VWP shows 0-6 km shear of 35 kt with 0-3
km storm relative helicity near 270 m2/s2. This shear environment
will support supercell development associated with a tornado threat.
The tornado threat will be greatest with cells that track
northeastward along the front. Large hail and wind damage will also
be possible with this activity.

Further to the south across southern Oklahoma, convection is
beginning to initiate in the vicinity of Ardmore. Some uncertainty
exists concerning how fast this activity will ramp up this
afternoon. For this reason, a tornado watch will likely be needed
over the next hour. The current thinking is that cells will
gradually increase in coverage and intensity with a severe threat
developing by 18Z in south-central and east-central Oklahoma. The
deep-layer shear environment will favor supercell development. In
addition, RAP forecast soundings gradually increase low-level shear
this afternoon across east-central Oklahoma, which will become more
favorable for tornadoes. Large hail and wind damage will also be
possible with supercells that develop.

..Broyles/Hart.. 04/30/2019

I believe this is the first tornado watch of the year.

Some clearing attempting to build in along and just E of I-44 corridor. Any enhanced heating will aid in thunderstorm severity. Right now it is difficult to say, but we could see some isolated cells develop right along I-44 from SW into C OK in the next couple hours. Then later have more develop in a cluster or line just W of OKC and trail down into SW OK. All storms will be capable of large hail and tornadoes. Any isolated cells will have the best shot rotating.

Paramaters for this tornado watch are particularly dangerous just S and SE of C OK.

Tornado down near Hickory, OK around noon.

I wonder if we will see an upgrade to moderate risk somewhere in south central/eastern Oklahoma at 3:00pm outlook? Areas to the south of OKC appear to be primed.

Here is a snapshot of around 4-5pm showing large supercells down across SC OK and more storms firing just W of OKC.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2019043017/hrrr_ref_frzn_scus_6.png

You can see the additional heating over the last few hours on this map that is taking place across S/SW OK.

https://i.imgur.com/MsRjQ5A.png

Can you re-post the map?

Storms starting to explode across I-44 corridor.

Is the chat open?

West of I-44 is is in the cold sector so they shouldn't be too bad. Storm east of Lawton may be one to watch heading to Norman area.

I just want MWC to get a ton of rain. We haven't gotten any today so far. But no severe weather. Lol

Dry in Goodwell,Ok Hell Yeah

This is pretty interesting. There was a slight lowering near SW 104th and May and I saw it go N/NE nearly over my house. We then had a *northwest* wind, and it made me wonder if the boundary was wavering in our area.

Hah! Just saw Payne on KWTV relay that the boundary has, in fact, shifted just east of us in our area around SW OKC. Temp has dropped about five degrees and wind continues to stay out of NW.

OKC for the most part is out of the warm sector and areas to the S and E remain under highest tornado threat. I would emphasize increased concern for areas in SC OK. The low is forming right now in SW OK. Large long-tracked tornadoes are not out of the realm of possibilities riding to the east in areas south of Norman to the Red River and onward to the Ada area later this evening.

How bad are the rain and street flooding in the downtown OKC area in terms of driving? Have someone asking if a trip to downtown OKC is a smart drive tonight...

How bad are the rain and street flooding in the downtown OKC area in terms of driving? Have someone asking if a trip to downtown OKC is a smart drive tonight...

I’m sure once water drains it will be fine but did see this:


OKC Streetcar
@OKCStreetcar
·
20m
#RIDERALERT: Due to high waters along the route, all streetcars are currently on hold. Remember to be weather aware and never walk, ride or drive through high water.

It may be a tad early, but what is tomorrow looking like? David Payne mentioned the cape values were looking like they may be off the charts. He was thinking tomorrow could potentially be a bad day, but I can’t imagine there will be much moisture in the air to work with tomorrow. Any ideas?

It may be a tad early, but what is tomorrow looking like? David Payne mentioned the cape values were looking like they may be off the charts. He was thinking tomorrow could potentially be a bad day, but I can’t imagine there will be much moisture in the air to work with tomorrow. Any ideas?
OKC forecast from the NWS:
Wednesday
A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Cloudy, with a high near 79. South wind 3 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.

Wednesday Night
A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy. Low around 60, with temperatures rising to around 64 overnight. South southwest wind 6 to 12 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.

Wow, much of Tulsa has had 2 to 5+ inches of rain as of 9pm.

http://okie.world/tulsarain.png

The rain state wide:
https://www.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/realtime/current.24hour-rainrfc_front580.png

It may be a tad early, but what is tomorrow looking like? David Payne mentioned the cape values were looking like they may be off the charts. He was thinking tomorrow could potentially be a bad day, but I can’t imagine there will be much moisture in the air to work with tomorrow. Any ideas?

I'd personally like to see how far north the front lifts tomorrow, as well as how much morning convection we have to deal with. If the front lifts back north of OKC and we have clear skies tomorrow afternoon, then I could certainly see us getting another round of storms. The air mass should remain very moist so I doubt it'll take too much of a trigger.

We will likely see some more storms develop as we head toward the morning hours here in C OK. Especially southern sides of the metro.

Depending on boundaries tomorrow, we may have more storms develop in the afternoon across SW OK. The best shots will be across S OK.

Things should be pretty tame today. The major action will be down in Texas.

Next Wednesday or Thursday is probably going to be next potential higher end event to watch out for. Or it will be a sunny beautiful day, you never know. lol

Severe Thunderstorm Watch is out for all of SC OK. Cells have developed along a boundary and are slowly pushing N/NE.

S and SE sides of metro have best shot at experiencing these storms. Will watch radar trends for further development and movement.

Things should be pretty tame today. The major action will be down in Texas.

Next Wednesday or Thursday is probably going to be next potential higher end event to watch out for. Or it will be a sunny beautiful day, you never know. lol

So not as tame as I thought with that southern OK action occurring right now.

Severe cell attempting to ride into SW OKC metro right now. If it holds together it will impact areas from Mustang to Moore and Downtown OKC.

uh....its May. :LolLolLol

Looks like yet another round of storms overnight tonight.

Not in OKC

How is Friday morning looking for storms? I have an outdoor activity scheduled and looks like there is a chance for storms.