Dramatic warm up is in progress as we head into February. The weekend will be a Spring teaser as we will have temperatures near and touching 70F. Sunday will be very warm and windy, thus creating a fire danger.

It has been the longest streak all winter with no precipitation, so the surface foliage is dry.

After this warm up, another strong cold front moves in Tuesday into Wednesday. At this time, there is signs of potential for some precipitation following the cold front. We will know better details heading into Monday and Tuesday.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/30day/off14_temp.gif
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/30day/off14_prcp.gif

The end of this coming week is beginning to look interesting on long-range models. Could see a multi-day storm coming up. Preliminary bread and milk watch.

Yeah, potential for ice storm on Thursday.

https://d1fofpanmqww7d.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_19.png

After the next four days the ground temps should be in the mid to upper 50’s so road conditions shouldn’t be much of a concern.

After the next four days the ground temps should be in the mid to upper 50’s so road conditions shouldn’t be much of a concern.
Yup of course the roads will be fine because this will be a fake news forecast bust non event and I bet the TV guys are already all over themselves already.

Yup of course the roads will be fine because this will be a fake news forecast bust non event and I bet the TV guys are already all over themselves already.

Do you ever stop?

The latest GFS model and NOAA forecast shows Thursday and Friday being little to nothing.

Yes, latest trend is bringing the track of the main low out much sooner and further north. Leaving most winter impact potential out of the picture. Will keep watching, but it is looking dry at this time.

nm

Yes, latest trend is bringing the track of the main low out much sooner and further north. Leaving most winter impact potential out of the picture. Will keep watching, but it is looking dry at this time.

Ah the notorious dry slot

What a strange weather week it's been...

What a strange weather week it's been...

I know, right? I'm sick of this foggy mess. It's depressing!

Yesterday late afternoon it was 39 in OKC and 71 in Ada.

Short-range models developing showers and thunderstorms directly over the I-44 corridor later tonight. The drizzle and fog will be persistent throughout the night until the entire storm system gets moving on out tomorrow.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2019020620/hrrr_ref_frzn_scus_9.png

Are we going to get any ice?

Are we going to get any ice?

Not in OKC. We will be below freezing by morning, but precipitation will be over by then.

And now there's a severe thunderstorm warning out in Western OK, partially in areas that are below freezing. Such a bizarre week of weather. Kind of reminds me of the February 19th-24th time period last year.

And to think that Oklahoma is supposed to be at the forefront of meteorological science we sure are failing badly. Bustapaloozaville in the forecast department all week!!! It is perfectly reflective of our education system. I would pay huge sums of money to pump in some 80 degree air.

Winter weather advisory for essentially the northern 1/2 of OK. This also barely includes the N OKC metro. The thought is for precautionary advising of maybe frozen precipitation on the back edge of the rain and storms that move through. If this occurs at all, it will likely be light freezing rain and drizzle with little to no impacts.

https://tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2019020700/nam3km_ref_frzn_scus_8.png

Amazing temperature difference in Oklahoma Wednesday night from 15 in the panhandle to 71 southeast. Hopefully, the risk for freezing rain later tonight won't turn out too annoying.
https://stillwaterweather.com/images/feb62019temps.png
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Do you ever stop?

Just put him on ignore. He's the one person I do that to.

Got a good amount of small hail with the storms that just moved through the Metro. Guess that's not too hard to achieve when it's 34 degrees outside. Looks like there's another round about 30-60 minutes away, and that one could cause some issues if the temperature drops much further, as the OKC East Mesonet site is reading 32.7F as of 11:45 p.m.

My work has a delayed start time. I wasn't expecting an ice event. Ha!

Yup of course the roads will be fine because this will be a fake news forecast bust non event and I bet the TV guys are already all over themselves already.

You were saying.......

You were saying.......

IKR? Of course, if you look at this post history there is literally one reason he's here. He's why there is an ignore function.

The cold air behind the storm has frozen all of the standing rainwater droplets. Roads are extremely slick where water is usually prone to drying last. Also cars are completely sealed in ice as well.

Air temperatures are in the teens.

It took me a good 40 minutes to get to work this morning when it normally only takes me about 15 minutes.

It took me a good 40 minutes to get to work this morning when it normally only takes me about 15 minutes.

I was like some high school kid at 4am repeatedly hitting refresh to see if school was gonna be cancelled. About 6am I hit pay dirt and UCO posted they would be closed! Decided to drive into my downtown OKC office since no test at UCO today. Drive wasn't bad - except I-44 near Remington was a complete parking lot. Exited and took an alternative route. Other than that, had to keep at about 40 MPH, though plenty of jack-a$$es were doing 70.

IKR? Of course, if you look at this post history there is literally one reason he's here. He's why there is an ignore function.

I was reiterating what the post before me said, but for different reasons

The morning after the freezing rain, everybody's roof is white and my wind gauge is frozen stuck. Fortunately, not much ice accumulation on the trees. Unlike with the intense cold air mass that affected the upper midwest, Oklahoma got the brunt of this one.

Roads were like a skating rink around Stillwater this morning. KOCO-5 of OKC said Stillwater got it worse with the ice than anywhere else. Travel took 2 or 3 hours to get to Stillwater from OKC. It's normally 1 hour. At least one accident on I-35 caused one lane travel. A Stillwater friend said her office in Stillwater called her and said do not come in. OSU and Stillwater public schools closed.

15145

The sun being out is causing mass melting, even ponding on some streets.

Tonight will likely be the coldest night of winter thus far in OKC.

Is it just me or has this been the most consistently cold winter for OKC in a long time? The last time I remember a winter like this was 2000-01. Typically there are plenty of above normal days between cold snaps and this year, those have been very rare.

Is it just me or has this been the most consistently cold winter for OKC in a long time? The last time I remember a winter like this was 2000-01. Typically there are plenty of above normal days between cold snaps and this year, those have been very rare.

I tend to agree with this, though no idea what the actual numbers would say. There was a 4-6 week stretch where it seemed like it was nice during the week and then the weekends were frigid which has exacerbated this perception for me.

Several storm systems will be moving across the country over the next 10 days.

Cold weekend on tap. Temperatures won't get above 50F until Monday and Tuesday with a slight chance of rain on those days - but best bet is far eastern OK for the rain.

After that, Wednesday turns cold and windy with a shot at some wrap-around snow from the north, likely will be a non-issue. Storm track is currently north of OK.

Next storm appearing around Thursday into Friday - but looks like it won't affect OK other than cold air reinforcement head into the weekend.

Then a slight warm up heading into the following week, with (at this time) a large storm system affecting the plains around Tuesday.

Is it just me or has this been the most consistently cold winter for OKC in a long time?

Consistent isn't a word I would use, it's very much been a roller coaster the last couple months.

https://www.accuweather.com/en/us/oklahoma-city-ok/73102/month/350143?monyr=12/01/2018 shows a couple cold snaps for December, but overall above average.

https://www.accuweather.com/en/us/oklahoma-city-ok/73102/month/350143?monyr=1/01/2019 shows about above average for the first half of the month, below the second half (with exceptions, like the first few days of the month).

We are at seven months and counting of below-normal temperature departures. Last month with an above-normal temperature departure was June. On the other hand, we haven't yet had any extreme cold snaps like we did the last two winters.

Last summer, storm spotter Val Castor for KWTV-9, Oklahoma City provided amazing live video coverage of flash flooding in Stillwater before the long downpour had even let up. Now it's the middle of winter, and Rob Hill, Stillwater Emergency Management Director went on a Stillwater street tour on the aftermath of the freezing rain that fell early Thursday morning. It's viewable here: https://stillwaterweather.com/afterfreezingraintour.php

Some interesting points along the way:
5:47 - First red light
7:00 - 2nd red light
14.10 - Crossing Boomer Lake bridge
21:50 - One of the riskiest areas done okay.
23:30 - Rob explains why he sometimes shifts to neutral.
29:00 - Turning to the side streets

"You gotta be a little bit weather nutty to work in emergency management", Rob Hill, Stillwater Emergency Management Director. Hill has watched weather for Stillwater for a long time, since at least the Friday the 13th 1975 tornado.

Wrap-around showers and storms are developing in the TX PH right now. These may temporarily be severe, but best chance for that is Western OK where they have been in sunshine. By the time these get into C OK, it will likely just be a cold rain.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2019021120/hrrr_ref_frzn_scus_7.png


https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0095.gif

Yuck. Feb. 18 to 24th looks to be on the cold side. But a good time to be in Florida:

http://www.wxforum.net/index.php?action=dlattach;topic=34964.0;attach=354 02;image

Tonight's rain shifted to the Guthrie and Stillwater areas.

Let's see who has the most accurate Valentine's Day forecast high temp:
KFOR 75
KOCO 70
KWTV 68

Let's see who has the most accurate Valentine's Day forecast high temp:
KFOR 75
KOCO 70
KWTV 68

And William Cole has it at 67

http://okwxtv.oklahomaweathertracker.com/Live%20Weather.html

The cold air is delayed to tonight. So yes, we will likely see temperatures in the low 70s. Then the cold air blasts through at nightfall and OKC will barely get over freezing for Friday and Saturday. Sunday we will recover slightly before getting another reinforcement heading into next week. Chance of some precipitation still showing up Tuesday into Wednesday, right now it does not look significant.

Anyone have any opinions on upcoming winter storm for Tuesday?

Anyone have any opinions on upcoming winter storm for Tuesday?

Drive carefully, no reason to cancel any plans you may have.

From NOAA:

Tuesday
A chance of snow before noon, then snow and freezing rain. High near 32. East wind 6 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

Tuesday Night
A chance of snow and freezing rain before midnight. Cloudy, with a low around 27. Northeast wind around 6 mph becoming calm. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Wednesday
Partly sunny, with a high near 40.

So is there anything like a consensus on conditions in OKC for tomorrow morning, around 8-11am? I'm seeing snow from one place, freezing rain from another, nothing until 11 from still another....?

It seems like the NWS is being unusually vague with totals and timing this time around.

This storm will be very nontraditional. It will be a fast moving low ejected out of the Rockies into the plains. The track will be nearly south to north and greatest impacts will be felt in the northern parts of CONUS. With that being said, it will still give us here in OK some precipitation, but it may not last long.



https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2019021812/nam3km_asnow_scus_43.png


https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/rgem/2019021806/rgem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_36.png


https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/wrf-arw2/2019021800/wrf-arw2_asnow_scus_48.png

Winter Storm Warning will likely be issued this afternoon. Models agreeing on freezing rain and snow for essentially everything along and north of I-44 corridor.

There is some models indicating potential for some heavier icing to occur just SE of I-44, but precipitation duration is still in question. We could easily see one bulk wave of snow and ice around lunchtime Tuesday, then nothing else the remainder of the day. NWS having hard time deciding what type of advisory to put out, but I think they will go with a blanket winter storm warning or possibly a standard "Winter Weather Advisory" for the entire area. This is what they did with last week's storm.

What's the buzz ... tell me what's a-happenin'

NWS going with Winter Weather Advisory for the majority of OUN viewing area.


314 PM CST Mon Feb 18 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TUESDAY TO
MIDNIGHT CST TUESDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Mixed wintry precipitation will move into the area mid to
late Tuesday morning and last through the evening. Total snow
accumulations of up to 3 inches across northern Oklahoma are
expected, with a glaze of ice possible. Ice accumulations of up
to one tenth of an inch are expected across portions of western
North Texas into southwestern and central Oklahoma.

* WHERE...Most of Oklahoma and western north Texas.

* WHEN...From 6 AM Tuesday to midnight CST Tuesday night.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The
hazardous conditions will likely impact the evening commute.

Models tonight are increasing precipitation rates. We could see very heavy freezing rain and sleet here in C OK just before lunchtime. As mentioned earlier, this will likely be one big heavy wave of precipitation, then majority of it should move on out as the storm is going to be flying to the north. We will still likely have some wrap-around snow showers and flurries heading into the evening hours.

Models are really bad at forecasting sleet, so some of these graphs below are way overestimated, but these will give an idea of the areas where heaviest precipitation is expected.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2019021900/gfs_asnow_scus_11.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2019021900/namconus_asnow_scus_12.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/rgem/2019021900/rgem_asnow_scus_31.png

OKC Public Schools
@OKCPS
All classes have been cancelled for Tuesday, February 19, due to incoming winter weather. OKCPS Admin offices & Operations Center will also be closed. Stay safe and warm. #okwx
9:30 PM · Feb 18, 2019

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Mike Morgan
Mike Morgan
@MikeMorganKFOR
Here is the VERY latest folks! The weather outside is saying something, and it is looking like HIGHER OKC Metro snow totals compared to the 6PM News. I will have the latest at 10PM Monday. #OKWX
@KFOR
Mike Morgan

NOAA:

Tuesday
Snow likely before noon, then snow, possibly mixed with sleet between noon and 3pm, then snow, freezing rain, and sleet after 3pm. High near 31. East wind 7 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New ice accumulation of less than a 0.1 of an inch possible. New snow and sleet accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.

Tuesday Night
Freezing drizzle likely before midnight. Cloudy, with a steady temperature around 30. Northeast wind around 6 mph becoming calm in the evening.

Wednesday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 43. Southwest wind 3 to 7 mph.

Really cool wind map save it. Works great on my iphone:

http://hint.fm/wind/

Great one for storm season shows lightening strikes too

http://en.blitzortung.org/live_lightning_maps.php?map=30

Short-Range model showing a really nice result from today's precipitation. Most of this will be sleet and freezing rain here in C OK. This will start as lighter showers and mist, then gradually a large wave will develop coming into S OK and sweep across the state south to north. After that we will have lingering drizzle and showers. Afternoon commute will be impacted.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2019021912/hrrr_asnow_scus_18.png