The snow is running behind schedule. It will be interesting to see if it works out as billed later this evening.

The large wave is currently evolving along the Red River. This will expand and race northward. ETA into OKC metro is around 2pm with additional development overhead.

EDIT: NWS launches special weather balloon moments ago. The result is warm layer aloft is more prominent than forecast. So the precipitation type will be heavily skewed toward Freezing Rain and some sleet mixed in. Virtually no substantial snow will fall in C OK.

The large wave is currently evolving along the Red River. This will expand and race northward. ETA into OKC metro is around 2pm with additional development overhead.

EDIT: NWS launches special weather balloon moments ago. The result is warm layer aloft is more prominent than forecast. So the precipitation type will be heavily skewed toward Freezing Rain and some sleet mixed in. Virtually no substantial snow will fall in C OK.

This increasing the ice amount for the metro or does the delay in development keep us more on projections?

Amounts of QPF still similar, but majority of precipitation likely to be freezing rain - thus less of an "accumulation of sleet/snow". Elevated surfaces and bridges/overpasses will be main impact.

It's 33 in Stillwater as of 12:45pm. The forecast high was 31. It goes to show you how difficult it is to forecast exactly what winter weather precipitation is going to be like. If precip ever starts, they may make it dip to freezing. Where the upper level temps are doing only add to the complexity.

Development occurring overhead now across all of C OK as the main wave of rain and some sleet will move in as the last hurrah later this afternoon.

I know these are tricky it seems so far we averted a big ice storm. Might still happen and even overnight if moisture before dry spell. But it appears we dodged this one which is fine by me

Light freezing rain in Stillwater. Roofs are turning white, streets are trying to turn slick. Temp has fallen to 31.

I know these are tricky it seems so far we averted a big ice storm. Might still happen and even overnight if moisture before dry spell. But it appears we dodged this one which is fine by me

This was never forecast to be an icestorm. This low is moving in a rare direction and speed that is not traditional for OK winter storms. This was always just a 3-5 hour window of winter precipitation across parts of the state.

Moderate snowfall at my office in Edmond.

At 2:30, it's coming down pretty heavy in far NW OKC and all concrete surfaces are now covered

This was never forecast to be an icestorm. This low is moving in a rare direction and speed that is not traditional for OK winter storms. This was always just a 3-5 hour window of winter precipitation across parts of the state.

Quoting just because it bears repeating. At no point did I see anything resembling an icestorm in the forecast for the metro area. They were pretty clear it would be a mix, which is precisely what is falling in Mustang right now. Mostly freezing rain, but you can see some snow in the air. Ice was consistently in the forecast for far north Oklahoma, but not the metro. Even Morgan has been saying the problem is going to be the drive home in the afternoon, and that's the reason all the schools closed. Because of the illusion this morning that it would be good would collapse about the time school would be getting out. If Mike Morgan isn't drooling about doom and gloom, then saying we averted anything more sinister than falling down while getting the mail is a bit of a stretch.

Looks like down at Indian Hills/I35 it misted for about 2 hours, then rained sleet for about 20 min, followed by about 10 min of light snow and it has all seemed to stop already.... that was letdown in terms of precipitation. Temps seem to be around 34°F so Im guessing we wont even have to deal with much freezing until late tonight if the moisture stays on the roads...

Heaviest wave of precipitation is done for C OK. We will see some backside redevelopment of wrap-around showers and freezing drizzle heading into the evening. Elevated surfaces and bridges will be the things to watch.

This was never forecast to be an icestorm. This low is moving in a rare direction and speed that is not traditional for OK winter storms. This was always just a 3-5 hour window of winter precipitation across parts of the state.

Rephrase, any ice storm is a big one to me. I do know all predicted ice most was light glazing. And I know 50 mile turns can change it thus “averted”.

I just drove and roads are fine. Glad no major impacts and kids got a day off.

Heaviest wave of precipitation is done for C OK. We will see some backside redevelopment of wrap-around showers and freezing drizzle heading into the evening. Elevated surfaces and bridges will be the things to watch.


Once it passes will roads dry up overnight? Or will morning be tricky roads?

Models tonight are increasing precipitation rates. We could see very heavy freezing rain and sleet here in C OK just before lunchtime. As mentioned earlier, this will likely be one big heavy wave of precipitation, then majority of it should move on out as the storm is going to be flying to the north. We will still likely have some wrap-around snow showers and flurries heading into the evening hours.

Models are really bad at forecasting sleet, so some of these graphs below are way overestimated, but these will give an idea of the areas where heaviest precipitation is expected.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2019021900/gfs_asnow_scus_11.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2019021900/namconus_asnow_scus_12.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/rgem/2019021900/rgem_asnow_scus_31.png

For the record I saw heavy freezing rain as ice storm. 15 minutes of heavy freezing rain is all it takes.

I do not blame this poster but for some reason posters here are attacked for everything. I said we averted an ice storm and instant poster attack mode.

Posters need to loosen up here. Read my last 2 posts this thread, was a matter of speech and hound dogs attacked. Some here are “never wrong’ and looking for fights. Chill out people.

That is my post. I wasn’t attacking you. Just clarifying that nothing was dodged. The forecast was correct on this storm from the very beginning. I posted on the 14th of February that next Tuesday (today) there would be a chance of winter precipitation and it did not appear significant. I mentioned several times here that there would be one major wave of heavy precipitation and then drizzle afterward. That is what we got. Sorry my post earlier wasn’t clear enough, i will remember next time to be more thorough with details. Again, this post is not in anyway written sarcastic or angry as an attack. I appreciate the feedback.

February 14:

The cold air is delayed to tonight. So yes, we will likely see temperatures in the low 70s. Then the cold air blasts through at nightfall and OKC will barely get over freezing for Friday and Saturday. Sunday we will recover slightly before getting another reinforcement heading into next week. Chance of some precipitation still showing up Tuesday into Wednesday, right now it does not look significant.

Maybe he means me, but I don't see how a reasonable person could see it as anything other than an attack on Mike Morgan. Other than as noted, differing definition of relevant terms.

To answer the question on the table, the ground isn't frozen solid but neither is it that warm. One would be wise to assume there will be slick spots.

Quoting just because it bears repeating. At no point did I see anything resembling an icestorm in the forecast for the metro area. They were pretty clear it would be a mix, which is precisely what is falling in Mustang right now. Mostly freezing rain, but you can see some snow in the air. Ice was consistently in the forecast for far north Oklahoma, but not the metro. Even Morgan has been saying the problem is going to be the drive home in the afternoon, and that's the reason all the schools closed. Because of the illusion this morning that it would be good would collapse about the time school would be getting out. If Mike Morgan isn't drooling about doom and gloom, then saying we averted anything more sinister than falling down while getting the mail is a bit of a stretch.

Wow,

This was my post just an observation with nothing intended other than to say no ice storm which is great. Then the attack posters insinuate I said they said we would have an ice storm. Overeaction to my casual post. I was simply happy we did not have one knowing weather can be tricky this time of year.

Here is what I posted get over yourself:

“I know these are tricky it seems so far we averted a big ice storm. Might still happen and even overnight if moisture before dry spell. But it appears we dodged this one which is fine by me”

Maybe he means me, but I don't see how a reasonable person could see it as anything other than an attack on Mike Morgan. Other than as noted, differing definition of relevant terms.

To answer the question on the table, the ground isn't frozen solid but neither is it that warm. One would be wise to assume there will be slick spots.
All i know is that i work at Tinker and we got another day off even though in MWC the roads are fine so i am happy they thought it was going to be bad enough to close the base......smh

Wow,

This was my post just an observation with nothing intended other than to say no ice storm which is great. Then the attack posters insinuate I said they said we would have an ice storm. Overeaction to my casual post. I was simply happy we did not have one knowing weather can be tricky this time of year.

Here is what I posted get over yourself:

“I know these are tricky it seems so far we averted a big ice storm. Might still happen and even overnight if moisture before dry spell. But it appears we dodged this one which is fine by me”

I do hope you get the help you need. Is your blood sugar low? Are you bored and trying to pick a fight? I don't think anyone's interested, but thanks. Take your attacks while claiming there are attacks on you elsewhere. Cheers.

It's still a mix of sleet and drizzle in Mustang. The School has not been closed for tomorrow, but I'm sure they are waiting on overnight precip. The amount of Cars parked on Neighborhood Streets is ridiculous. I don't blame them for not wanting to send a Bus down them.

I do hope you get the help you need. Is your blood sugar low? Are you bored and trying to pick a fight? I don't think anyone's interested, but thanks. Take your attacks while claiming there are attacks on you elsewhere. Cheers.

???

Temperatures rebounding nicely ahead of the next storm. Which is right on the doorstep. It looks like most impacts at this time will be felt across KS. Any major impacts to the main body of OK will be dependent on a dramatic shift in track that is more E to W as opposed to S to N.

So the result will very likely be light rain chances Friday afternoon into Saturday afternoon. Saturday will also be particularly windy.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2019022018/namconus_ref_frzn_scus_48.png


https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2019022018/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_12.png


https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2019022012/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_13.png

Wow,

This was my post just an observation with nothing intended other than to say no ice storm which is great. Then the attack posters insinuate I said they said we would have an ice storm. Overeaction to my casual post. I was simply happy we did not have one knowing weather can be tricky this time of year.

Here is what I posted get over yourself:

“I know these are tricky it seems so far we averted a big ice storm. Might still happen and even overnight if moisture before dry spell. But it appears we dodged this one which is fine by me”

It's like trying to post in the political forums........

Does anybody have any prediction for when we might see a pattern shift away from this wet, cold rut we've been stuck in since what seems like November? Looking at the next 10 days it looks like things will remain well below normal, with the warmest days barely making it to the seasonal averages. Most days will average 10-20 degrees below normal if not colder.

OKC winters typically have plenty of days in the 60s and 70s but we've not really seen that this year. This winter reminds me a lot of my early childhood living in north central Missouri.

Does anybody have any prediction for when we might see a pattern shift away from this wet, cold rut we've been stuck in since what seems like November? Looking at the next 10 days it looks like things will remain well below normal, with the warmest days barely making it to the seasonal averages. Most days will average 10-20 degrees below normal if not colder.

OKC winters typically have plenty of days in the 60s and 70s but we've not really seen that this year. This winter reminds me a lot of my early childhood living in north central Missouri.
I'm with you. this winter sucks and is slowly dragging into Spring

Light rain and maybe a rumble of thunder still on tap for late tonight (midnight+). This will be a line or wave of rain coming in from the southwest. After that Saturday will be pretty miserable with highs in the low 50s, but a very strong NW wind on the backside of the low.

Sunday through Tuesday will be less wind, with highs in the 50s. Some more cold air tries to come down for Wednesday next week, possibly some light moisture accompanying it. After that, it looks like the following weekend we get some more cold air and potential winter precipitation. But obviously that is very far out and things will change a lot.

A few quick moving showers coming through OKC now.

Check out this live wind map. Works great on iphone I assume it works on other platforms:

http://hint.fm/wind/

This winter sucks and is slowly dragging into Spring

Might as well count our blessings that it hasn't been worse from no big ice or snow storms in central Oklahoma. No record lows.

Check out this live wind map. Works great on iphone I assume it works on other platforms:

http://hint.fm/wind/

I like it! Here's another pretty cool wind visualization site.

https://www.ventusky.com/

Maybe doesn't exactly fit here but not sure where to place and not worthy of own thread. I drove to weatherford yesterday and all of the windmills were non operational. Do they shut down if the wind gets to high?

Maybe doesn't exactly fit here but not sure where to place and not worthy of own thread. I drove to weatherford yesterday and all of the windmills were non operational. Do they shut down if the wind gets to high?

Short answer is yes. If you wanna geek out here is a link showing all kinds of info about wind loads and havic they can cause:

https://www.windpowerengineering.com/design/how-turbulent-wind-abuse-wind-turbine-drivetrains/

Short answer is yes. If you wanna geek out here is a link showing all kinds of info about wind loads and havic they can cause:

https://www.windpowerengineering.com/design/how-turbulent-wind-abuse-wind-turbine-drivetrains/

Interesting read and learned something new today Thanks

According to NOAA we have some cold/wet weather coming over next week. Chance are still low but the temps are gonna be cold:

Tuesday Night
A slight chance of drizzle after midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 37. Northeast wind 5 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.

Wednesday
A chance of drizzle or freezing drizzle, mainly before noon. Cloudy, with a high near 37. North wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph.

Wednesday Night
A slight chance of freezing drizzle before midnight. Cloudy, with a low around 24. North wind 9 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.

Thursday
Partly sunny, with a high near 44.

Thursday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 31.

Friday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 57.

Friday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 26.

Saturday
Partly sunny, with a high near 33.

Saturday Night
A 20 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 21.

Sunday
A 20 percent chance of snow. Cloudy, with a high near 29.

Sunday Night
A 30 percent chance of snow. Cloudy, with a low around 18.

Monday
A 20 percent chance of snow. Cloudy, with a high near 32.

Cold front teetering back and forth just NW of the I-44 corridor currently. We Should see it gain some momentum after lunchtime today and push through OKC, dropping temperatures into the 30s.

Then we will likely see fog and drizzle develop along and behind the front, some of it freezing obviously where it is 32F and below. The best chance for freezing drizzle in OKC is Wednesday night.

What about next Mon/Tue it seems we have a chance of snow and temps nkt avove freezing for 2-3 days.

Interesting little front! NW OKC dropped fast. I see that El Reno is 21 degrees and Shawnee is 50.

Front came through OKC a little earlier than forecast. It is already very cold and will stay this way through Thursday. Strong southerly winds will shoot temperatures up into the 50s on Friday. Then temperatures will plummet Saturday into Sunday. This will continue into next week with some snow potential Sunday into Monday. At this time, it does not appear to be significant.

Winter weather getting unusually crazy for time of year. Mike Morgan said the March 1-5 period will be coldest since 1960. Low then may get down to 12, the coldest for this winter.

^ To reference. This is the current forecast low temperature Monday morning from the GFS:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2019022612/gfs_T2m_scus_25.png

I got tricked again for the third week this winter. I planned on a bike ride because the weather forecast was in the mid 50s and doesn’t get above 40. Forecasts have been really off the past month.

Winter Weather Advisory for W and C OK with patchy freezing drizzle. This will likely linger into tomorrow before moving out Wednesday evening.

I got tricked again for the third week this winter. I planned on a bike ride because the weather forecast was in the mid 50s and doesn’t get above 40. Forecasts have been really off the past month.

Where exactly you are located? You likely saw the "high temperature" today somewhere around 8 or 9 am. OKC was 48F this morning and is currently 27F.

Winter weather getting unusually crazy for time of year. Mike Morgan said the March 1-5 period will be coldest since 1960. Low then may get down to 12, the coldest for this winter.

It seems like in Oklahoma, the first half March has a knack for being brutally cold depending on the year. Highs in the teens/twenties and lows in the single digits aren't that uncommon. It looks like this is going to be one of those years.

I just hope winter doesn't linger into April like it did last year. I'm hoping that in about a month or so I can start breaking out my t-shirts and shorts.

It seems like in Oklahoma, the first half March has a knack for being brutally cold depending on the year. Highs in the teens/twenties and lows in the single digits aren't that uncommon. It looks like this is going to be one of those years.

I just hope winter doesn't linger into April like it did last year. I'm hoping that in about a month or so I can start breaking out my t-shirts and shorts.

Man, when does OK weather please you? You hate April thru July due to tornadoes, then August and September because it is hot, then fall because it isn't long enough, and now winters here are too cold?

To be honest, I kinda hope the high doesn't get above 35 at the most for the first two weeks of March. I mean, trust me, I'm as ready for warmer weather as the next guy, but up to this point it's been a roller coaster. There was a dang dandelion in my backyard yesterday (I told it it was in for a big shock, it didn't listen). If we don't get a serious cold snap, and I mean one that last more than a couple days, the bugs are going to be sheer hell. Cold snap to kill the bugs, then warm right up.

Man, when does OK weather please you? You hate April thru July due to tornadoes, then August and September because it is hot, then fall because it isn't long enough, and now winters here are too cold?

Rarely. Oklahoma weather most of the year isn’t my cup of tea. However, I was simply commenting on how this year I hope there’s nicer weather in April compared to last year and the upcoming cold snap isn’t abnormal for this time of year. I don’t want this to become a “bash bchris” thread.

Rarely. Oklahoma weather most of the year isn’t my cup of tea. However, I was simply commenting on how this year I hope there’s nicer weather in April compared to last year and the upcoming cold snap isn’t abnormal for this time of year. I don’t want this to become a “bash bchris” thread.

I didn't mean to make it that. My bad. I hadn't noticed this winter was much colder. But maybe it was just because there have not been as many large storms, just more smaller ones. Also, I have been traveling for work, so I have missed a lot of the bad OKC weather (ice, snow, etc).

Where exactly you are located? You likely saw the "high temperature" today somewhere around 8 or 9 am. OKC was 48F this morning and is currently 27F.

I live near the Holly Lobby Headquarters. It makes sense I was seeing the high which was in the morning prior to the temperature shift.

Bridges and overpasses are ice rinks this morning. Numerous wrecks all over the metro. This freezing drizzle will continue for the majority of the day.

Man, when does OK weather please you? You hate April thru July due to tornadoes, then August and September because it is hot, then fall because it isn't long enough, and now winters here are too cold?

Well, your assessment of OK weather is pretty accurate, it kinda sucks. :) I grew up here, so I don't mind the heat and tornadoes (haven't been hit by a tornado, might mind them more if that happened), and fall *is* too short and not fall-like enough. But this winter has been weird, very dreary/cold/wet moreso than normal since we do usually have some 40-50 degree days interspersed quite often, but just seems to have been very monotone this winter, it's getting old... At least no huge ice storms (can't wait to have a good one that takes out the neighbor's tree that is hanging right over our power/cable lines and our garage, this older part of town is so susceptible to outages/damage than where we used to live, but I wouldn't trade our new place for anything). This is all subjective, though, so maybe this winter isn't as out of the norm as I think it is, just seems so.

In Stillwater late this morning or around noon, a recheck of the streets and bridges generally weren't bad from light freezing mist or drizzle. Evidently, the street surfaces were still above freezing from highs being in the low 60s on Monday. Stillwater Civil Defense Director took another tour of the streets here:
https://www.facebook.com/StwSema/videos/2001524866816940/?multi_permalinks=2085717278185451%2C2085385461551 966%2C2085696231520889%2C2085688861521626%2C208565 2481525264&notif_id=1551268722547410&notif_t=group_activity

Streets didn’t seem that bad this morning but I’ve seen 4 rollover wrecks which I think is a record for me. Come be because it didn’t seem that bad but there were spots that were.

This is all subjective, though, so maybe this winter isn't as out of the norm as I think it is, just seems so.

Well the average high for this time of year is 58 degrees and it's climbing pretty fast. By next week we should be in the 60s according to seasonal averages. However the current 10-day outlook is mostly days with highs in the 20s and 30s with a few days up in the 40s. Furthermore, this winter has had far fewer "nice" days than any other Oklahoma winter in my memory.

Days above 60*F this winter.

December: 1st
January: 6th, 7th, 18th
February: 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 13th, 14th, 23rd, 25th

Days above 70*F this winter

December: None
January: None
February: 3rd, 14th

With the exception of November, we have had a VERY cloudy last six months. Actuals are per Mesonet, averages are from OKC's climate data on Wikipedia.

September: 45% sunshine (Average: 71%)
October: 48% sunshine (Average: 70%)
November: 68% sunshine (Average: 60%)
December: 51% sunshine (Average: 60%)
January: 47% sunshine (Average: 64%)
February: 45% sunshine (Average: 62%)

Also, February will be the 8th month in a row with a below-average temperature departure at KOKC. Who knows how March will go as a whole, but temperatures will certainly start out well below-average.