2019 has begun.

Changes ahead:
AA adds OKC-DCA eff. 2/14
AA mainline OKC-PHX eff. 2/18
UA mainline OKC-IAH eff. 4/29


Things to watch for (my opinion):
Via Air will likely pull out of OKC or shut down operations.
Impacts to business travel with depressed oil prices. Could be a factor in slowing growth if prices remain slumped.
It wouldn’t be a huge shock to see AA attempt OKC-MIA, given their recent expansion at OKC.
United to resume mainline to DEN.
Things I’d like to see (realistic) but wouldn’t say are necessarily probable:

Alaska attempt mainline to SEA
Southwest make BNA a daily flight (their attention is on hawaii)

I'd be even happier if Alaska would just move the daily N/S to the morning to take advantage of an ever-increasing connection Network out of SEA.

With cheap fuel, you would expect airlines to test newer routes into OKC. But with our economy tied to energy, maybe not. Unless our economy doesn't get hit that hard

Any chance JetBlue gives OKC either BOS or JFK this year?

Any chance JetBlue gives OKC either BOS or JFK this year?

Highly unlikely they haven’t started expanding into the Heartland and would probably fly to MCI, STL, IND, etc before OKC

Any chance JetBlue gives OKC either BOS or JFK this year?

I'd think we might get a shot with JetBlue's new P2P "Moxy" airline utilizing Airbus A220's.

I'd think we might get a shot with JetBlue's new P2P "Moxy" airline utilizing Airbus A220's.

True we don’t fully know how the A220 will change the business as Delta is the main U.S. airline that has purchased them. Mainline JetBlue won’t be coming anytime soon but there may be an opportunity with Moxy. With a 3600 mi Range these could easily make NYC and BOS-OKC possible, if that’s even their plan.


With this aircraft, Moxy could introduce profitable city pairs in underserved regional and short to mid-haul markets, in the U.S. and beyond. The A220-300 would also be suitable to introduce new frequent shuttle services between cities with high business passenger demand, where schedule flexibility might be attractive to passengers.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/marisagarcia/2019/01/03/moxie-and-jetblue-place-firm-orders-for-120-airbus-a220-aircraft/

True we don’t fully know how the A220 will change the business as Delta is the main U.S. airline that has purchased them. Mainline JetBlue won’t be coming anytime soon but there may be an opportunity with Moxy. With a 3600 mi Range these could easily make NYC and BOS-OKC possible, if that’s even their plan.



https://www.forbes.com/sites/marisagarcia/2019/01/03/moxie-and-jetblue-place-firm-orders-for-120-airbus-a220-aircraft/

Interesting market development and very interesting plane which is perfect for OKC like market.
I have started to wonder if the growing gap between the regional 50 to 80 seaters and the newer A 320neo and B737 MAX 8 which all seat about 180 people would hurt us.
The A220 may come to the rescue after all the A319 smaller B737 and B 717 go away.

It would appear Via Air has pulled out of OKC. It is no longer listed on the destinations section of their website.
https://www.flyviaair.com/destinations/

Moxy and JetBlue are not the same entities. David Neeleman started JetBlue, and he is starting Moxy. He also started Westjet and Azul and so far all of his airlines have remained separate. He’s a good fund raiser and ground work guy, but so far all of his ventures have remained separate. There’s no reason to believe these entities will be combined or even work alongside each other.

JetBlue also has a220’s of their own on order. They don’t need Moxy.

So is there any reason why we don't see more Ultra-low cost carriers from OKC? I am thinking carriers like RyanAir or EasyJet that I could hope on for $30-$50 for one way without any luggage except for a small back pack. The reason I bring it up, is I have been looking at traveling to the away games for the Energy FC and most flights are $200+. I am just needing a flight there and back with no frills. Is there an airlines that operates as such in the US, but not to OKC or is there something else that doesn't allow for these type of carriers to be in business?

Spirit and Frontier are the types of airlines you're referring to (no-frills ULCCs). Frontier does operate at OKC but to a limited number of destinations. Little chance of Spirit starting ops here anytime soon.

Spirit and Frontier are the types of airlines you're referring to (no-frills ULCCs). Frontier does operate at OKC but to a limited number of destinations. Little chance of Spirit starting ops here anytime soon.

Frontier doesn't even have daily flights out of OKC... I would like a carrier that is ULC but also has available flights throughout the weekend.

Frontier doesn't even have daily flights out of OKC... I would like a carrier that is ULC but also has available flights throughout the weekend.

Allegiant is another ULCC that operates out of OKC.

and to multiple destinations

United really just seems to struggle in OKC, or they just don’t seem to place much importance on OKC.

Omaha (which is a busier airport but similar sized city) used to have a somewhat comparable United schedule as OKC. However, this spring they will now have 4 mainline to DEN, 3 mainline to ORD, and 3 round trips to EWR. They also have 2x daily to SFO beginning soon. We have more seats to IAH and service to IAD which they don’t. However, the amount of mainline there is pretty dramatic compared to OKC.

United has the best network location out of OKC, and they could really capitalize on that if they wanted to. OKC is for all intents and purposes equidistant from DEN, ORD, and IAH. With a robust schedule to all 3 hubs, they could literally dominate the market and likely be the preferred carrier for any direction of travel out of OKC.

Just a random thought from 11F.

In Denver, which is one of United's larger cities, I find it to be more expensive to nearly everywhere than other airlines. I think United wants to cater to the business traveler rather than the value traveler.

In Denver, which is one of United's larger cities, I find it to be more expensive to nearly everywhere than other airlines. I think United wants to cater to the business traveler rather than the value traveler.

That’s certainly true in some regards as we are spending a ton of money on premium cabin refits and elite amenities. However, basic economy does provide plenty of options that are beneficial to budget travelers while retaining customer loyalty. My point is, United can’t seem to make extra capacity at OKC work while it can at smaller cities such as Wichita, Tulsa, Cedar Rapids, Souix Falls, Omaha, and Des Moines. Other than Omaha, I can’t see any of those cities having greater business demand than OKC, and outside of TUL (AA) none have any local tendency to be loyal to a particular airline.

very hard to believe that United has more capacity from those cities than OKC - which is much larger than any of them.

I know OKC has flights to all of the hubs as we'd expect to see but I agree with you that it's very difficult to understand what United is doing only sending regional planes and not so much mainline. ...

Not political....I have a 6 am flight tomorrow. Has our TSA lines gotten any slower or more backed up with the government shutdown? Trying to see if I need to plan on more time than usual.

I had no issues Tuesday. Breezed through TSA Pre as normal.

2018 year end numbers - 4.3m

https://flyokc.com/sites/default/files/December%202018%20Enplanement%20Report.pdf

How many seats did United have in December for sale vs previous months? Big change for them while other airlines saw a nice bump.

How many seats did United have in December for sale vs previous months? Big change for them while other airlines saw a nice bump.

I can look up an inventory report Sunday.

wow, very nice. OKC is more than officially in the 4m club. 4.3m is very unexpected, a jump of 500K from last year. very nice!!

Wow - a 10% jump is impressive no matter how you look at it. Amazing though that DL, AA, and WN all grew, while UA really declined. Not sure why that would be - as catch alluded to earlier, doesn't make much sense. Yes AA is helped by how close and huge DFW is but it's not like UA doesn't have solid hubs in DEN/SFO/ORD that it can't leverage?

Purely anecdotal, but it always seems like when I need to fly, United's times and/or fares suck and I end up choosing another airline.

While not groundbreaking this goes to show that AA is fairly serious about making OKC an important market for them.

Gate 8.

https://scontent-dfw5-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/fr/cp0/e15/q65/49864357_2108499515862736_9082494146018541568_n.jp g?_nc_cat=101&efg=eyJpIjoidCJ9&_nc_ht=scontent-dfw5-1.xx&oh=3cdee0d08b83a62ddac9d0b802141680&oe=5CD68F22

It's too bad it's not Delta or United experiencing this kind of growth out of OKC, because I don't care for Parker and think AA is really deteriorating under his "leadership".

It's too bad it's not Delta or United experiencing this kind of growth out of OKC, because I don't care for Parker and think AA is really deteriorating under his "leadership".

Despite of the fact that I work for United, I’ve always had a soft spot for AA and am happy to have them expand in OKC. I am just frustrated that UA has let OKC service slip so much in the past few years since they closed OKC.

Despite of the fact that I work for United, I’ve always had a soft spot for AA and am happy to have them expand in OKC. I am just frustrated that UA has let OKC service slip so much in the past few years since they closed OKC.
I’m happy for the expansion as well - it’s certainly made my life easier.

I can’t remember why United closed OKC? Just underperforming?

I’m happy for the expansion as well - it’s certainly made my life easier.

I can’t remember why United closed OKC? Just underperforming?

It was the final blow of the hammer of the Smisek cost cutting era. He outsourced a total of 40 stations and put thousands of people out of work and replaced them by near minimum wage contractors.

It was the final blow of the hammer of the Smisek cost cutting era. He outsourced a total of 40 stations and put thousands of people out of work and replaced them by near minimum wage contractors.
That's right. I had forgotten ole' Smisek. How are things going under Munoz? Things improving?

That's right. I had forgotten ole' Smisek. How are things going under Munoz? Things improving?

Morale is at multi decade long highs, we are making money, and even though I’m biased we put out a pretty decent product compared to what we were doing in the first part of the decade. I’m very happy to say I work for United. If we would have held on just a few months longer, OKC and the other 28 stations that were closed during the final round would have been safe under Munoz. Unfortunately there’s no reversing it, but it’s unfortunate we didn’t make it just a little longer.

While not groundbreaking this goes to show that AA is fairly serious about making OKC an important market for them.

Gate 8.

https://scontent-dfw5-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/fr/cp0/e15/q65/49864357_2108499515862736_9082494146018541568_n.jp g?_nc_cat=101&efg=eyJpIjoidCJ9&_nc_ht=scontent-dfw5-1.xx&oh=3cdee0d08b83a62ddac9d0b802141680&oe=5CD68F22That's nice to see! While I fly all 4 of the major airlines in OKC, my favorite and most frequent is AA. I typically fly Delta and United about once a year, and Southwest less than that. Occasionally something comes up and if I need to go to one of the cities a non-AA airline flies to non-stop I do it though. I'm very disappointed that Delta is getting the new gates and not American. I hope that there is some shifting around and American ends up with more gates, though.

I do wonder, what do some of you airline people think of what seems to be a very strategic AA move in OKC? Do you think this is part of a planned, sustained campaign to grow their business here, or are they doing this in a multitude of cities right now? I assume most of the capacity is coming from RJs (though good, comfortable RJs overall) but it looks like we have a couple more mainline to DFW and a new one coming to PHX. So that's up a little from a year or two ago. I assume they don't just throw darts at a dartboard, that they study yields and loads and apparently OKC keeps responding to the extra capacity so they keep giving us more? Realistically, how far can this go in the next year or two? Add MIA and one of the NYC airports? Maybe a couple mainline additions to hubs other than DFW and PHX? Could it ever lead to an Admiral's Club? What kind of AA traffic do some of the smallest Admiral's Club cities have?

Could it ever lead to an Admiral's Club? What kind of AA traffic do some of the smallest Admiral's Club cities have?I just did a little math. AA had 22.8% market share in December, which equates to 989k passengers for a year (I'm sure I could have added up all their passengers for the year but I didn't take the time). Looking at the list of Admiral's Clubs on the AA website I thought Orange County looked like a good candidate for lowest AA traffic. It has 1.6 million annual AA passengers. So, still over 600k less than what I assume is the lowest end of the spectrum.

While I’m not for certain what could cause their sudden interest, I assume that it would be them seeing OKC as a satellite market of DFW, just like AUS and SAT are. They are close enough to DFW to funnel a ton of connecting capacity, and drive brand loyalty from shear volume while capitalizing on that same loyalty by providing good connectivity from other hubs and now good nonstop service in the form of DCA.

Regarding your other point, they are connecting the dots in a lot of cities right now. So it’s not just OKC. I think now that they are fully digested in the US/AA merger they have opportunities to really expand on the individual strengths of the combined network. It seems they have identified cities where they can add some growth. But OKC is an outlier in the amount of added service adjusted for the length of time they have done so. I wouldn’t be surprised to see larger airplanes on DFW (A321?) at some point soon as well as some continued frequency adds here and there. I wouldn’t be surprised to see MIA also.

Catch - What’s with the lack of connection to NYC? I keep hoping we’ll get a flight to LGA/JFK, but it never happens. Might AA add one of them? United doesn’t seem to think the market for EWR is very robust as it remains seasonal. It’s been a bit since I flew it, but I don’t remember that flight being timed very favorably either...?

Catch - What’s with the lack of connection to NYC? I keep hoping we’ll get a flight to LGA/JFK, but it never happens. Might AA add one of them? United doesn’t seem to think the market for EWR is very robust as it remains seasonal. It’s been a bit since I flew it, but I don’t remember that flight being timed very favorably either...?

I could see either delta or American trying something to NY at some point. OKC isn’t getting any smaller and eventually you’ll hit the tipping point where marginal routes become an easier business case. We seem to be hitting that point in some regards.

It's too bad it's not Delta or United experiencing this kind of growth out of OKC, because I don't care for Parker and think AA is really deteriorating under his "leadership".

Oh my god, don't even get me started. It's absolutely disgusting what Dougie has done to AA, particularly AAdvantage, which is a shell of it's former self. It's strange - AA has done some things such as enhance f/b options in the ACs, but OTOH they're making their Y product literally the worst in the industry. It's bizarre. Maybe that's why AA's stock price continues to tank.


I just did a little math. AA had 22.8% market share in December, which equates to 989k passengers for a year (I'm sure I could have added up all their passengers for the year but I didn't take the time). Looking at the list of Admiral's Clubs on the AA website I thought Orange County looked like a good candidate for lowest AA traffic. It has 1.6 million annual AA passengers. So, still over 600k less than what I assume is the lowest end of the spectrum.

That is interesting indeed, thanks for posting that. I'd posted here before about not just an AC but about how I thought a shared lounge might work (like the Airspace lounge at SAN), and got shot down, LOL. But it's interesting to see those numbers. SNA has far more frequency and I'd imagine is far more higher yielding than OKC though. Not to mention the AC there serves passengers who use LAX as well. Pretty sure AA is the largest of the US3 in the LA basin now.

It was the final blow of the hammer of the Smisek cost cutting era. He outsourced a total of 40 stations and put thousands of people out of work and replaced them by near minimum wage contractors.

What a damn shame - I didn't realize that was a Jeff special. As much as I hate Dougie, SMI/J may be literally the worst airline CEO in history, well other than James Hogan. I don't fly UA much but their award availability is infinitely better than AA's, and we've had a pleasant experience whenever we've flown them. Maybe time to status match!

Despite of the fact that I work for United, I’ve always had a soft spot for AA and am happy to have them expand in OKC. I am just frustrated that UA has let OKC service slip so much in the past few years since they closed OKC.

Catch22, I’m not familiar with the UA “closed OKC” story. Would you mind refreshing? Thanks.

Catch22, I’m not familiar with the UA “closed OKC” story. Would you mind refreshing? Thanks.

OKC along with many other stations across the country were staffed and operated by United itself. United employees. In 2014 they outsourced 12 cities to contract vendors who have no affiliation to United. In March 2015 OKC joined a list that included 28 other cities that were also contracted out to the lowest bidder. Approximately 5,000 middle class jobswere displaced by vendors paying food stamp wages. Some people took an enhanced severance, others went on furlough, and some of us accepted transfers to other stations to keep our jobs.

The people working the ticket counter and loading your bags in OKC and many other cities across the country do not work for United, have no loyalty to United, and ultimately have no vested interest in whether you have a good experience or not. It’s entirely possible for you to fly out of OKC and not have a single interaction during your entire iteneray with someone who is a United employee.

OKC along with many other stations across the country were staffed and operated by United itself. United employees. In 2014 they outsourced 12 cities to contract vendors who have no affiliation to United. In March 2015 OKC joined a list that included 28 other cities that were also contracted out to the lowest bidder. Approximately 5,000 middle class jobswere displaced by vendors paying food stamp wages. Some people took an enhanced severance, others went on furlough, and some of us accepted transfers to other stations to keep our jobs.

The people working the ticket counter and loading your bags in OKC and many other cities across the country do not work for United, have no loyalty to United, and ultimately have no vested interest in whether you have a good experience or not. It’s entirely possible for you to fly out of OKC and not have a single interaction during your entire iteneray with someone who is a United employee.

Got it - Thanks.

United has some of the worst business practices and ethics in the country. The fact that their reward system is better only alludes to that statement. Sarcastically speaking, it says “hey, we’re slime but here’s a coupon to make you feel Justified for using a company that crushes the labor force, enjoy the miles!” I was most disgusted last year after they killed a passengers dog by forcing him, under threat of arrest, to place it in the overhead bin where it suffocated. And that ordeal where they urned performance based bonuses into a lottery for a cash, cars, and a vacation...on a F’ing plane!

OKC along with many other stations across the country were staffed and operated by United itself. United employees. In 2014 they outsourced 12 cities to contract vendors who have no affiliation to United. In March 2015 OKC joined a list that included 28 other cities that were also contracted out to the lowest bidder. Approximately 5,000 middle class jobswere displaced by vendors paying food stamp wages. Some people took an enhanced severance, others went on furlough, and some of us accepted transfers to other stations to keep our jobs.

The people working the ticket counter and loading your bags in OKC and many other cities across the country do not work for United, have no loyalty to United, and ultimately have no vested interest in whether you have a good experience or not. It’s entirely possible for you to fly out of OKC and not have a single interaction during your entire iteneray with someone who is a United employee.
And this can’t be undone/reversed?

^^^ contracts usually come with, well contracts. A set number of years. And how does a company undo firing people, mugging people off overbooked flights, killing pets, and being a horror of customer service?

Brian, thanks for sharing this. Can you also share some data for each airline's share of passengers, departures & gates in OKC?

I just did a little math. AA had 22.8% market share in December, which equates to 989k passengers for a year (I'm sure I could have added up all their passengers for the year but I didn't take the time).

Brian, thanks for sharing this. Can you also share some data for each airline's share of passengers, departures & gates in OKC?

And this can’t be undone/reversed?

While Oscar won’t touch current labor, they aren’t interested in opening up new work. Although our union contract does provide the ability to take that work over again if certain metrics are met.

While Oscar won’t touch current labor, they aren’t interested in opening up new work. Although our union contract does provide the ability to take that work over again if certain metrics are met.
Do you see that changing at some point and the union taking it back on?

Do you see that changing at some point and the union taking it back on?

Probably not here, it requires a 35 flight per day average over any 90 day period. An example schedule that would get us there is: 10x daily IAH, 8x daily to ORD, 7x daily to DEN, 3x EWR, 4x SFO, and 3x IAD.

Highly unlikely :)

Probably not here, it requires a 35 flight per day average over any 90 day period. An example schedule that would get us there is: 10x daily IAH, 8x daily to ORD, 7x daily to DEN, 3x EWR, 4x SFO, and 3x IAD.

Highly unlikely :)
Wow. Yeah, unlikely. lol

just curious how many stations have United employees then? Can't be that many that have 35 flights a day on average. ...

It was the final blow of the hammer of the Smisek cost cutting era. He outsourced a total of 40 stations and put thousands of people out of work and replaced them by near minimum wage contractors.

Who I noticed in the paper this weekend is hiring for ramp positions

Allegiant now flies to VPS (Destin FL) from both OKC and TUL seasonally. The TUL flights start in June. The FL panhandle seems like a popular vacation spot for Oklahomans so it will probably do well. Allegiant is also the right airline/equipment for this flight. I would love to see them try New Orleans again.

just curious how many stations have United employees then? Can't be that many that have 35 flights a day on average. ...

Keep in mind that is only what it takes to force an insourcing scenario, not what was a requirement for initial cut. Current mainline staffed outstations are: SEA, PDX, HNL, OGG, SAN, LAS, PHX, RNO, BIL, AUS, DFW, SNA, TUL, CLE, MCO, TPA, BOS, LGA, MSP, DTW, DCA.

TUL but not OKC? Interesting. How did they escape Smisek's knife?

TUL but not OKC? Interesting. How did they escape Smisek's knife?

They voluntarily lowered their pay and relaxed some work rules. Oscar restored their pay and work rules consistent with the rest of the stations after he took over.