I'll start the January weather thread with a winter storm watch. It includes all the OKC metro area.

WINTER STORM WATCH
Areas Affected:
Atoka - Bryan - Caddo - Canadian - Carter - Cleveland - Coal - Comanche - Cotton - Garvin - Grady - Hughes - Jefferson - Johnston - Kingfisher - Kiowa - Lincoln - Logan - Love - Marshall - McClain - Murray - Noble - Oklahoma - Payne - Pontotoc - Pottawatomie - Seminole - Stephens - Tillman - Washi ta
Effective: Wed, 1/2 6:00am Updated: Tue, 1/1 11:38am Urgency: Future
Expires: Fri, 1/4 6:00am Severity: Moderate Certainty: Possible

Details:

...Winter Precipitation Likely Wednesday and Thursday...
...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING
THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...
* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow
accumulations of 3 to 6 inches and ice accumulations up to
around two tenths of an inch possible. Though most of this is
expected to fall Wednesday night and Thursday... minor impacts
will still be possible on Wednesday.
* WHERE...Portions of western, central, and southern Oklahoma and
northern Texas.
* WHEN...From Wednesday through early Friday.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult. The
greatest impacts are expected Wednesday night through Thursday
night.

Information:

A Winter Storm Watch means there is potential for significant
snow, sleet or ice accumulations that may impact travel. Continue
to monitor the latest forecasts.

Counties covered in blue:
https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/png/oun.png

I was shocked to see the NWS Norman account tweet this morning about 4-5 inches of snow. That’s oddly specific for them and a couple local Mets I follow on Twitter said latest model runs have them thinking it’ll be a cold soaker with maybe a light sheen of ice.

News9 backed off the snow totals at noon for central OK and shifted more into rain and ice mode then snow on the back end.

I was shocked to see the NWS Norman account tweet this morning about 4-5 inches of snow. That’s oddly specific for them and a couple local Mets I follow on Twitter said latest model runs have them thinking it’ll be a cold soaker with maybe a light sheen of ice.

News9 backed off the snow totals at noon for central OK and shifted more into rain and ice mode then snow on the back end.

I think its pretty obvious by now that its very hard to get snow in OKC. We are just in the right area of the united states where the cold and warm air battle constantly ...i.e tornado alley. Its very difficult to predict snow here and everytime they do the storm system either peters out or moves south or we get a dry slot or we get warm air coming in and it just rains . I am liking the all rain though as it keeps our fire season to a minimum.

Just looked on the weather channel and it says 0% tomorrow and 20% tomorrow night. Looks like another miss for OKC. Earlier I listened to Mike M. and he said we would get a months worth of precipitation from this system. Hmm?

Latest GFS run appears to push most of the Thursday precipitation to southern Oklahoma. Looked like central OK is now dry.

J... Earlier I listened to Mike M. and.....

I think we've identified the flaw in the plan.

The problem is that these newer meteorologists merely forecast models and don't use any of their guts. Instead of using all the models together and their own instincts to come up with their own true forecast, they seem intent on simply selecting their favorite model and running with it. That's why anymore someone's forecast can drastically change with incredible differences from the noon to the 5PM weather segments. It's really crazy.

Just watched Michael Armstrong on KOCO...his forecast has moved most everything south.

The problem is that these newer meteorologists merely forecast models and don't use any of their guts. Instead of using all the models together and their own instincts to come up with their own true forecast, they seem intent on simply selecting their favorite model and running with it. That's why anymore someone's forecast can drastically change with incredible differences from the noon to the 5PM weather segments. It's really crazy.

I don't know if its really about using their guts vs everyone else also has access to more information so people are noticing these shifts in forecast models more.

This morning both GFS and NAM show it going south of the metro.

Has the 6AM (00Z) GFS come out? The last one I saw was the midnight (600z) run. It showed freezing precip generally south of I-40, but a bit farther north than the immediately previous run...and possibly lingering into Friday...(the 6am run is normally up by now on the.site I check...)

So what all are we supposed to get then? Any ice or snow at all?

Wow what’s with the latest Euro? Dumping 14 inches of snow on central OK?

Wow what’s with the latest Euro? Dumping 14 inches of snow on central OK?

So are you saying they are now predicting 14 inches of snow in okc?

Just one model run from this morning. There is always outliers. Just a bit odd to see it get that aggressive this close to the event in my very limited history of looking at these models.

Just one model run from this morning. There is always outliers. Just a bit odd to see it get that aggressive this close to the event in my very limited history of looking at these models.

Reed Timmer posted images on Twitter from the NAM run this morning that show similarly high amounts, but falling near Altus. A couple other model images I've seen on Twitter show an almost horizontal line where the snowfall drops off just south of I-40 (within a mile or two), leaving OKC itself with possibly nothing, and multiple inches to the SW.

As usual with winter weather here, we won't know until it happens... or doesn't.

Okay, the 6am GFS is finally out, and it looks like it's trying very hard to creep that biggest wave (blob?) of Thursday winter precipitation just *north* of I-40 now, and seems to expand it's coverage as well.

The path that low takes as it ejects out of the SW is going to tell the tale. We're talking a (roughly) 50-mile difference for how that northern boundary plays out as a function of where the low travels. That kind of narrow corridor prediction (will it hit OKC) is just beyond the granularity of these kinds of models.

Bottom line? We could get a good winter blast, esp in southern OK. It *might* reach as far north as OKC, and even a bit beyond. Underline *might*. Anyone giving certainty on this one for OKC is selling a bill of goods.

So I assume we wont really know til the storm enters the state?

So I assume we wont really know til the storm enters the state?
Probably not.

The NOAA site updated their stuff at 3 PM and shows OKC on the line between 1-3 and 3-5 inches with drizzle, freezing rain, sleet tonight turning to snow later Thursday.

https://www.weather.gov/oun

Hello everyone. I have been out of state, but will be flying back into OKC later tonight. I don’t have a PC with me right now so this is from my phone. I have viewed the model data that I could and it appears NAM and GFS are becoming more bullish on winter precipitation affecting SW, C, and S OK. Winter Storm Warning is out for these areas and initial waves of light freezing rain and sleet are already developing west of OKC.

We will have to watch short-range models @ 00Z and in the morning for the best clarification on snow accumulation and location. Like others have already explained, locations with significant impacts will be extremely localized with this system as it is a very compact low with limited moisture.

However, as we all know, heavy snowbands will set up with the wrap-around snow and very limited areas could receive even up to 6” of snow.

I will post some graphics later tonight after I land unless someone else does before then.

It is sleeting like crazy in NW OKC (Memorial and Macarthur - 4:15PM).

It is sleeting like crazy in NW OKC (Memorial and Macarthur - 4:15PM).

Yes it's coming down pretty good everything covered. It's here heavy sleet. As fast as it moved in it's gone now. Don't see anything behind it in the state yet.

Roads in the metro are already quite bad with accidents all over the place. Plenty of sleet setting up SW of the metro with some embedded lightning even, though most of it looks to slide south of OKC.

Does anyone know what time the main storm is expected to move in to central Ok? I have given up on the weather channel and local news for now. They change their forecast every few minutes it seems. I want hard hitting facts!

Does anyone know what time the main storm is expected to move in to central Ok? I have given up on the weather channel and local news for now. They change their forecast every few minutes it seems. I want hard hitting facts!

Again, the models still differ, and the conditions are constantly changing. Anyone who gives you an exact time is lying to you. Darn thing could still decide to track south. Personally, I welcome updated information when it is available.

At this point it’s like demanding exact forecasts about where wrecks will be during rush hours any given morning.

All the stations this morning (5am newscasts) were like no snow this thing is tracking much further south", which "tends to be typical with cut off lows". Going to bed at 7:30pm to get up earlier for work tomorrow. I can't wait!!

Damon Lane is going with 1-3 inches of snow for OKC even though the National Weather Service predicts 3-5 inches. Mike Morgan is emphasizing that by definition a winter storm warning means 5 inches of snow in a 12 hour period, and is using the Euro model to show 7 inches in the metro.

OKCPS has called it for Thursday. I haven't seen any other metro districts in the cancellation lists.

Norman doesn't go back until the 7th, so not all are in session now.

Norman doesn't go back until the 7th, so not all are in session now.

I had forgotten that! Most of the metro probably isn't back to school yet.

David Payne is going with 2-4 inches in the OKC metro.

National Weather Service showing 4-6 south of Oklahoma County, 2-4 in OKC, and 1-2 roughly north of Memorial.

I am back in OKC now. Bridges and overpasses are frozen solid and another batch of freezing rain and sleet is coming in. This will likely coat all roadways, but some heavily traveled lanes will probably be okay. I would just assume all wet surfaces are ice and travel cautiously.

Tonight, models are continuing bullish trend to decent snowfall in the Winter Storm Warning area. Most models are picking up early-on sleet and thus exaggerating snowfall. So I would basically cut all of the following map totals in half. However, as I mentioned earlier - we could see a very narrow corridor of significant snowfall somewhere in the warning area. There will be localized heavy bands of snow that will be nearly idle in movement, which will result in heavier accumulation across maybe just handfuls of miles. The exact track of the low will determine who receives the cold pocket of air - thus the most snowfall.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2019010300/nam3km_asnow_scus_33.png


https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/rgem/2019010300/rgem_asnow_scus_33.png


https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2019010300/gfs_asnow_scus_6.png


https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2019010300/gem_asnow_scus_9.png

Dear Lord in Heaven. What have God wrought?

Roads on near north side of OKC are fine. Wet and a little slick, but not really a problem. Route: 63 & Western to 36th to Lincoln to OU Medical complex, then I-235 north to 63rd, west to May.

About 1/8" of ice accretion in NW OKC this morning. Roads seem wet (I'm sure bridges are worse) but everything else is icy. Should hopefully switch over to snow later this morning.

Moderate Snow coming down on the north side of Norman now (Indian Hills & I-35)

Snowing now in SW OKC near Hobby Lobby HQ.

David Payne is going with 2-4 inches in the OKC metro.

Looks like he will be a lot closer than the 7.3" that Mike Morgan predicted.

Radar is filling in with heavy snow now across much of C OK. This will continue into the afternoon. Accumulation on surfaces will occur due to the rate of snowfall. There is a chance that warm air will overtake the northern edge of the low and eat into snow totals by transitioning into rain and/or sleet. However, it is likely that areas experiencing snowfall and accumulation will have temperatures actually falling throughout the air column, thus keeping the snow going. Very fine line will be made between a lot of snow, and almost no snow.

Here is the latest from the NAM. I would continue to assume these should be divided in half, but there could be localized heavier amounts where banding is concentrated.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2019010312/namconus_asnow_scus_9.png

We had some brief heavy snow in Norman but we moved back to rain.

We had about 20 minutes of really huge snowflakes falling about an hour ago, but it transitioned back to a snow/sleet mix, and right now I'm not sure much of anything is falling - very light, nearly imperceptible freezing drizzle with the occasional mixed-in big snowflakes. Looks like if you poked the clouds really hard with a yardstick, you might get buried hip-deep in snow :) :) :)

In our area the roads are just wet-to-slushy at worst. If you take your time and be careful, you shouldn't have problems. Just watch out for the other guy :) .

Very similar reports coming in all over C OK about precipitation changing back and forth. There is pockets of warm air overrunning the cold air the low is attempting to create. This will cause very random pockets of differing precipitation. There are parts of C OK just west of OKC that already have 3 inches.

We will see how the low is able to produce (or not produce) snow as it comes into SW OK and moves east across the state. Right now it is really struggling to get going.


EDIT: Also it is super cool that many of the radar sites are having connection issues this morning - resulting in a very annoying nowcast.

Moderate and heavy snow inching back into the OKC metro in the next couple hours. Radar is filling in along I-35 while the low is nearly stationary just east of Childress, TX. This will pull the precipitation plume back west over the area.

Moderate and heavy snow inching back into the OKC metro in the next couple hours. Radar is filling in along I-35 while the low is nearly stationary just east of Childress, TX. This will pull the precipitation plume back west over the area.

Thanks! I'd wondered. Was happy when I saw the big fluffy flakes falling outside my window, but that little push hardly lasted 15 minutes. Was curious if this system had just fizzled out, or if we're waiting for more.

Dry Slot beginning to talk hold.

Dry Slot beginning to talk hold.

Looks like it'll be pushed out with the cycle. Also, the re-freezing overnight is going to be a huge impact in the morning?

NWS actually extended the Winter Storm Warning across several counties. So its not over yet.

We should see the dryslot begin to fill in and the precipitation bulb will become more parallel with I-40. This tilt should coincide with the low's movement to the E.

Of course this is only what the HRRR models say is going to happen, and we all know how these things work.

To expand on my last post, here is a snapshot of later this evening when the low is really cranking through the state and the heaviest precipitation is falling all along the I-40 corridor.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2019010317/hrrr_ref_frzn_scus_8.png

Here is the current dilemma with the forecast. We have a giant dry slot that has basically split the Low in half. If you want more snow in OKC, you want this blue line to keep attempting to fill in to the south; and over the last 3-4 hours it gained some ground, but is losing it again. If this trend continues, the outcome will be the literal opposite of the forecast, in which north eastern sides of C OK receive the most precipitation and SW sides receive the least. Models are saying the low is going to be able to collapse onto the dryslot, but it is going to take a major push by the system to pull it off.

https://i.imgur.com/Z3j4b9n.png

Dry Slot wins out, and probably done with snow in OKC.

[QUOTE=Anonymous.;1059909]Here is the current dilemma with the forecast. We have a giant dry slot that has basically split the Low in half. If you want more snow in OKC, you want this blue line to keep attempting to fill in to the south; and over the last 3-4 hours it gained some ground, but is losing it again. If this trend continues, the outcome will be the literal opposite of the forecast, in which north eastern sides of C OK receive the most precipitation and SW sides receive the least. Models are saying the low is going to be able to collapse onto the dryslot, but it is going to take a major push by the system to pull it off.

https://i.imgur.com/Z3j4b9n.png[/QUOT

Isnt Oklahoma amazing when it comes to winter weather. Just when i thought it looked like a sure thing with the snow here in the city.....we had lots of moisture, a seemingly perfect track of the storm, but then the warm air in the upper atmosphere rears its ugly head and now the infamous dry-slot. All one can do is laugh! But thankful for the rain for sure

Dry Slot wins out, and probably done with snow in OKC.

The snow currently falling in Mustang says the dry slot can suck it.

The snow currently falling in Mustang says the dry slot can suck it.

;) hope it goes away and it comes down a Snow Storm.

Just checked RadarScope, appears to be LIGHT redevelopment between say Edmond then SW toward Chickasha. That reflective of the dry slot losing the battle?

Low is trying its hardest to close up the dry slot. You can see the new echos in blue forming inside the dry air, this is from the lift of the low pushing along the Red River. If it can continue the trend, I-40 corridor could get a solid little window of accumulation heading into tonight.

https://i.imgur.com/6ig10AD.png



Here is HRRR predicting 2-3 inches across OKC area.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2019010321/hrrr_asnow_scus_15.png

Winter Storm Warning trimmed away from C OK and left for just the W & SW part of the state.

https://www.mesonet.org/data/public/noaa/wwa/maps/realtime/latest.oklahoma.winter.gif