Shift is continued south. I don't think I have ever seen this dramatic of a change in 12 hours before. At this rate, precipitation may not even fall in the entire state. the NAM still wants to develop some snow along I-44 corridor, but it is nothing compared to what was forecast for the entire state just this morning. The track has shifted so far south that E/SE OK may actually have the best shot @ winter precipitation. Ice accumulation will be little to zero anywhere in the state as of now.

I will continue to update tomorrow obviously, but this is unraveling pretty amazingly.

This is the model's last hold before basically making this a cold rain event for extreme SE OK.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2018120700/nam3km_ref_frzn_scus_39.png


And here is the generous snowfall amounts from trying to develop some backside snow, but that looks like it may get choked off too.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2018120700/nam3km_asnow_scus_61.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/wrf-nmm/2018120700/wrf-nmm_asnow_scus_48.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2018120700/gfs_asnow_scus_15.png


https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2018120700/gem_asnow_scus_10.png


https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/rgem/2018120700/rgem_asnow_scus_48.png

Yeah!!!! This is awesome! Epic bust in the making! I would be especially grateful if Mike "Drive South" Morgan would lose his job over this!!! Probably won't happen, but one can dream!

Yeah!!!! This is awesome! Epic bust in the making! I would be especially grateful if Mike "Drive South" Morgan would lose his job over this!!! Probably won't happen, but one can dream!

If I give you the attention you desperately need will you please stop with this?

sorry, but Mike reigned it in today... starting at his 1800 broadcast...

Maybe its time for people to stop watching extended forecasts if they don't understand the science/art behind forecasting.

Quoting just because it's worth repeating.


If I give you the attention you desperately need will you please stop with this?

I think it usually works the other way with trolls, not feeding them is what makes them wander off when they get bored. The intelligent people can be happy that a very real disaster was averted, while understanding that everything is going exactly as predicted, while the ignorant are free to believe whatever they want...who cares what they think? Let them wear their ignorance as a badge. Badge of honor to them, badge of warning to others.

I am reveling in the schadenfreude of those who were hoping for disaster based on those early forecasts which any intelligent person knows are not correct as we have seen time and time before. Yes, ignorance does shine...

All advisories have been cancelled except for a very localized area. NWS maintaining Winter Storm Watch (soon Warning) for a select few counties along I-44 from SW OK into C OK.

This seems to be based on HRRR interpretation of some heavy snow bands developing over an extremely narrow corridor early Saturday morning.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2018120712/hrrr_asnow_scus_34.png

When looking at these forecasts, How do I decipher when it is for? I see the forecast hour but what is the number after that? I see the date but there is no time unless the 22z is the time. Does that correspond to military time meaning 2200 hours?

When looking at these forecasts, How do I decipher when it is for? I see the forecast hour but what is the number after that? I see the date but there is no time unless the 22z is the time. Does that correspond to military time meaning 2200 hours?

Z is for Zulu or UTC (Universal Time Coordinated) It is 6 hours ahead of us. So 22Z is 2200 Zulu/UTC time which is 4:00pm here.

Yes that is correct, Zulu time.

Keep in mind, that the time in that latest graphic is showing snowfall up to that point, not when snowfall is occurring. So basically that map says by 4:00pm CST, this is what has fallen. I chose that time because that is when most/all snow will be over in Oklahoma.

I hope we at least get a couple of inches in Moore. Was looking forward to taking the kiddo out in the snow.

Yeah!!!! This is awesome! Epic bust in the making! I would be especially grateful if Mike "Drive South" Morgan would lose his job over this!!! Probably won't happen, but one can dream!

In ten years Morgan will be 65, so you may have to put up with him for at least that much longer.

I hope we at least get a couple of inches in Moore. Was looking forward to taking the kiddo out in the snow.

I think you might get your wish and then some.

So....Im erasing all this pre chatter about the storm.. What I gathered was at one point, we (OKC) were possibly going to get ice, starting around 4pm followed by a ridiculous amount of snow overnight and mostly Saturday.

Now, in short.... correct me... Storm starts later, less or no ice, and a little snow and not ALL day Saturday.

So basically, the forecast for a winter storm is there but not anymore of a storm than we had like in November. Not a 2009 event. Or is there a "but a temp change or storm course change could erase everything" caveat still in play?

So basically, the forecast for a winter storm is there but not anymore of a storm than we had like in November. Not a 2009 event. Or is there a "but a temp change or storm course change could erase everything" caveat still in play?

There's still some forecast uncertainty, but I think the chances of a significant change are rapidly dwindling...

The winter storm is no longer a winter storm. It is now just a storm going through Texas. Little to no frozen precipitation will fall on the backside. The most that will fall is a couple of inches in SW OK, maybe a dusting to an inch in OKC.

The low was set to track along I-40, but is now going to track 30 miles south of the Red River. This track change occurred over about 12 hours on Thursday. I have never seen such an error, or abrupt change in a storm in that short of a period before, but I posted about it exactly when it happened on the page 2. We went from a massive snowstorm for northern half of OK, to now almost zero precipitation in the entire state.

I know that there are a lot os snow wishers but I cannot possibly be more happy about this storm tracking south!!! Sorry to all those who want snow.

I know that there are a lot os snow wishers but I cannot possibly be more happy about this storm tracking south!!! Sorry to all those who want snow.
Ditto!

Updated graphics. Little to no precipitation will fall in the entire state of OK. Winter Storm Watch cancelled and replaced with Winter Weather Advisory, but that may also get removed.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2018120718/hrrr_asnow_scus_32.png


https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2018120718/nam3km_asnow_scus_25.png

Looks like a big ol warm up coming after this weekend. Hopefully no more fake news storms threats the rest of the winter. Would like to see some 70s before the end of the month and with the upswing in temps that might happen lol!

Television meteorologists are such a joke this time of year. Morgan still trying to cover all his bases by saying heavy snowfall is still possible.

Heavy snowfall is possible. It's also possible that hell freezes over. One can only hope.

Mike needs to sucked into an F5 tornado and sucked far away into oblivion. Don't worry, like I said its going to warm up after this weekend. Why anyone would wish for snow is beyond me, move up north if you want winter weather.

HRRR trying one last time for a narrow band of moderate to heavy snow. Still won't amount to much even if it does happens because it won't last long.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2018120721/hrrr_ref_frzn_scus_14.png


https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/rgem/2018120718/rgem_asnow_scus_41.png

Storm needs to move north if you want something OKC.

In ten years Morgan will be 65, so you may have to put up with him for at least that much longer.

Speaking of Morgan, he went from this:

https://stillwaterweather.com/images/snowdec2018.jpg

To This:
https://stillwaterweather.com/images/snowdowngradeddec2018.jpg

Oh well...maybe next year.

Unless the back side takes a more northeasterly track, it look like OKC is in the clear for any more snow of what little there was. No snow or bitter cold in the forecast through Dec. 21.

"Today, I wanted to crawl in my bed and hide." KFOR meteorologist Emily Sutton.

https://icons.wxug.com/data/weather-maps/radar/united-states/lawton-oklahoma-region-current-radar-animation.gif

^Emily also tweeted the “Bart Simpson walking back into the hedge” meme which I thought was funny. Good sport.

Oh what could have been.

The snow wasn't a total bust for the southern Texas panhandle. Lubbock got 10".

^Emily also tweeted the “Bart Simpson walking back into the hedge” meme which I thought was funny. Good sport.Emily has a sense of humor. Mike Morgan was on this morning still trying to promote horrible road conditions in the metro. Then he would go out to the chasers and try to get them to talk about how bad the roads were. They all said things were just wet if anything at all. Come on guy, just admit you missed this one. There will be others.

I don't follow the local mets on TV. Did they even try and explain the models dramatically changing in a matter of half a day or did they try and slowly downgrade the storm instead of straight up say hey it isn't going to happen unless there is another dramatic shift the other way?

Honestly I cannot blame anyone Thursday morning saying a majority of the state could get a solid snowfall. All of the models pointed to that occurring, I am not sure what a forecaster is supposed to do in that situation. I suppose they could adjust the way they use percentages in their forecasts. I have noticed that the general public latches onto the idea of hour-by-hour forecasts with percentages of X happening. I find that very intriguing and I think the media should use that to their advantage.

Just a general theory, but I think the local meteorologists have associated percentages with severeness as opposed to the actual chance of something happening. For instance, on Thursday they say there is a 100% chance of heavy snow in the OKC metro on Saturday. Instead, perhaps it should be there is a 60% chance of a 3-6 inches of snow in the OKC metro on Saturday. This way it reads as a chance of a significant event, as opposed to the chance being the significance of the event. Then when Thursday afternoon happens and the models shift the track south by 80 miles, you can lower the chance of 3-6 inches of snow in the OKC metro to say 10%.

I don't know, I am just spit-balling here, but I think there is a lot of miscommunication that has been developed using somewhat dated ways to explain a forecast.

I watched Mike last night and he said things were shifting south but was still sounding the alarm that "significant snow" could hit OKC early this AM.

If you watched his broadcast there would be no other conclusion than he massively missed and stuck to his forecast after others had backed way off.

Fact: The entire week, every forecast (Including Mike's) has been "models are conflicting, we won't really know anything until Friday".

Fact: What was supposed to happen, still happened, it just went south, and since the cold air wasn't that far south, it fell as rain.

Fact: It's snowing in Mustang right now. I tried telling the snow that some internet wags said it wasn't going to happen, it started falling harder.

Fact: It's been hovering just above freezing all day. It's not inappropriate to remind people what happens, especially on bridges and overpasses, when the roads are wet and the temperature hovers around the freezing point.

Opinion: This isn't anywhere near like when Mike blatantly told people to drive into the path of a tornado. Up until just a few hours ago, the weather system (that again, every single model had a different opinion regarding) was heading here. Heading here was about the only thing everyone agreed upon.

Fact - the TV guys greatly over hyped and over sensationalized the weather this week. Luckily on OKC Talk we have Anon and others to keep us a little more level headed.

Fact. I was touched in a bad place by a meteorologist who convinced me to adult this week by making sure my cars were winter ready, and to get my shopping done 2 days early. I say we burn them all.

Fact - the TV guys greatly over hyped and over sensationalized the weather this week. Luckily on OKC Talk we have Anon and others to keep us a little more level headed.

Hmmm.


Going to go ahead and say preliminary Bread & Milk Watch for next weekend December 7th-ish. A storm will be in the area with iffy temperatures.


Classic southern plains winter storm still being picked up on by models. Temperatures and track will determine locations of impacts, but impacts do look to be significant wherever they take place.

We will get into NAM window in next couple days so we will have a better idea. But for now this is what we have model-wise.

GFS:
Start of storm: Freezing rain and sleet just NW of I-44 corridor. Snow in NW OK.
End of storm: Snow all of I-44 corridor and points N.

Canadian & GEM:
Start of storm: Freezing rain over I-44 corridor for prolonged period, potential major icestorm scenario. Snow in NW OK.
End of storm: Snow all of I-44 corridor and points N.


Will keep updating as we get into additional forecast model windows and obviously the less time gap before the event - the more accurate things will be painted.


First glimpses into the NAM do not paint a pretty picture. Major winterstorm per NAM. Whilst the GFS is backing off.

Will have more tomorrow when we have full storm data.


Since this storm is very large, it will be a multi-day event, so the entire storm is not in short-range models' view until very close to the start of the event.

As of tonight, the NAM is full doomsday


Here we go with the latest data. Right now the storm is taking a perfect track for impacting all of Oklahoma. The track will be very similar to the 2009 Christmas Eve storm that dropped record snowfall in C OK. Now most of that 2009 snow in C OK came in the low's deformation zone with heavy banding - something nearly impossible to predict or place. I am not claiming this storm will dump record snowfall, but the track will be very close.

And as soon as the models changed, he updated us the new paths and changes in the forecast.

Nobody got it wrong initially, nobody misinterpreted the forecast, all the models agreed that it was gonna be a major event.

Then the models changed unexpectedly, and some folks updated their forecasts to reflect the change while others tried to stick to their initial forecast for whatever reason.

No one knows anymore than anyone else. It's whatever the models say. But that doesn't keep the tv guys and gals from wanting to think think they know more. So glad we had that state of emergency in place. Wow. What a cluster.

Hmmm.

Talking about the TV guys, not here. The hype machine was in full force.

It's important to keep in mind that in OKC weather is the biggest driver in TV news ratings.

And the ratings are particularly good when severe weather is in the forecast.

Fact. I was touched in a bad place by a meteorologist who convinced me to adult this week by making sure my cars were winter ready, and to get my shopping done 2 days early. I say we burn them all.

You need dire weather predictions to do something most people already do without fear of an icy death? :wink:

You need dire weather predictions to do something most people already do without fear of an icy death? :wink:

Sometimes. And if you think most people do this type of stuff, I'd love what you're smoking.

Either way, the worst harm of this being getting people to prepare and be weather aware? I'm ok with that.

Hmmm.

I think this is why you quoted me, not 100% sure, but it sounds like post #98 is referencing my posts leading up to this storm as hype. I really hope that the stuff I post is not being taken that way. As I have mentioned many times in these threads, there is no added [monetary or otherwise] benefit to me or OKCTalk when it comes to the information I post in these threads.

Since you quoted various posts of mine from the last 10 days as being not level-headed, I noticed you left off post #39 - the post I made about 20 minutes after the data became available that the storm track was shifting dramatically south and this would be important for the entire forecast moving forward. Also your own posts after this make it appear you understand the data that was being used to forecast the storm was suddenly changing. But now after the event you cherry-pick random posts of mine with zero context or timestamps and compare that to TV meteorologists that apparently wanted people to make milk sandwiches this weekend?

I want to make it clear that I only post the data and information available to anyone online. The data that the TV mets are using is the same model data that I am posting here. All they are doing is interpreting the data and using their own experiences whilst being a face or presenter of the forecast in a way that is eye-catching and entertaining. Arguments about them having ulterior motives for ratings/money may hold some water. But there is nothing like that here. Although I suppose you may think I am sitting in a big evil chair, tapping my fingers together while reading the weather thread, and basking in some weird ego boost.

Nobody got it wrong initially, nobody misinterpreted the forecast, all the models agreed that it was gonna be a major event.That just isn’t really accurate. I watch the models at work since keeping a Federal Government aviation facility open and running is my responsibility. GFS and Canadian never showed this storm as being a really big deal. NAM did the first few runs of their window but backed off pretty quickly.

I think this is why you quoted me, not 100% sure, but it sounds like post #98 is referencing my posts leading up to this storm as hype. I really hope that the stuff I post is not being taken that way. As I have mentioned many times in these threads, there is no added [monetary or otherwise] benefit to me or OKCTalk when it comes to the information I post in these threads.

Since you quoted various posts of mine from the last 10 days as being not level-headed, I noticed you left off post #39 - the post I made about 20 minutes after the data became available that the storm track was shifting dramatically south and this would be important for the entire forecast moving forward. Also your own posts after this make it appear you understand the data that was being used to forecast the storm was suddenly changing. But now after the event you cherry-pick random posts of mine with zero context or timestamps and compare that to TV meteorologists that apparently wanted people to make milk sandwiches this weekend?

I want to make it clear that I only post the data and information available to anyone online. The data that the TV mets are using is the same model data that I am posting here. All they are doing is interpreting the data and using their own experiences whilst being a face or presenter of the forecast in a way that is eye-catching and entertaining. Arguments about them having ulterior motives for ratings/money may hold some water. But there is nothing like that here. Although I suppose you may think I am sitting in a big evil chair, tapping my fingers together while reading the weather thread, and basking in some weird ego boost.

You do an absolutely 100% great job of posting weather info on here. So I suggest we just get back to weather, and we can all have our opinions about the TV guys and their motivations. Thanks for the good info you put on this site!

I think this is why you quoted me, not 100% sure, but it sounds like post #98 is referencing my posts leading up to this storm as hype.

That is the 100% opposite of why I quoted you. I quoted you to demonstrate, as you have said several times but some aren't getting, that the models were predicting a big storm, and then at the last minute went south. I have absolutely not said or implied this was hype, it was in response to others claiming that reporting EXACTLY what you reported was hype.


Since you quoted various posts of mine from the last 10 days as being not level-headed, I noticed you left off post #39 - the post I made about 20 minutes after the data became available that the storm track was shifting dramatically south and this would be important for the entire forecast moving forward. Also your own posts after this make it appear you understand the data that was being used to forecast the storm was suddenly changing. But now after the event you cherry-pick random posts of mine with zero context or timestamps and compare that to TV meteorologists that apparently wanted people to make milk sandwiches this weekend?

Again, this was absolutely not my intent at all...as you point out, it's pretty obvious I agree with you. There was no need to quote post #39, as the intent was to show what was being said BEFORE the storm moved matched what the models said, not hype.

My mistake. I definitely misinterpreted your post then. Sorry about that, sometimes the context of things can get lost here with the way quotes and such work on a message board.

My mistake. I definitely misinterpreted your post then. Sorry about that, sometimes the context of things can get lost here with the way quotes and such work on a message board.

No worries, I'll take the blame for not being more obvious.

From the days when Venture posted about the weather here and now Anon, I always find it informative. Most times this is the first place I come to check on weather. Thank you for that!

Models bring in a clipper-type storm Thursday afternoon with absurdly strong winds. Right now the forecast is for cold rain, but a nudge lower will result in blowing wet snow.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2018121018/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_13.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2018121018/namconus_ref_frzn_scus_50.png

Here are my thoughts on this storm:
It appeared that the EURO and then the GFS (followed by the NAM) as well as a few runs of the GEM really locked on to a significant storm. The EURO locked on to it for several days and if you read the discussions from the NWS, even they hit the message hard that this was going to be a crazy storm and not to believe the milder output from the NAM. (If you don't know where the discussions are from the NWS then scroll down to the bottom of Normans page and you can read the archives)

By Weds Night, after the EURO 00z RUN, it was obvious that the storm was beginning to weaken and the TV stations seemed to note that.

What I don't get is why people are spewing so much hate at the Mets (both NWS and broadcast). They gave the public 48 hours notice that this storm was not going to be what the models said it would be earlier in the week. Even after the NWS pushed out the Winter Storm Watch.

So, my takeaway from this is why the hate when, for 2 days, it was said that this would be a much weaker system. No one seems to throw shade at the mets when they forecast rain totals and they're off by a .25"-.50" which is what this would be equivalent to when you looked at the moisture.

It seems that when it comes to snowfall, people take the heaviest snow report and then hang on to it for days even when the data is changing. When 1"-3" of snow is in the forecast, all people seem to see is the 3" an not the 1". So when 1" falls, people say it was a "bust" when clearly it wasn't.

As for the ratings: I talked to a sales person at one of the local stations and they talked about how much weather hurts them in the long run. TV sales is strictly 100% commission. And you are only paid when your spots run. So, if weather takes over your broadcast and the commercials don't run, then the sales team loses that money and the station loses money.

I don’t know where to easily verify this but Spinozi said this morning that he heard Aaron Tuttle say that OKC is pushing 2000 days without a 4 inch snowfall. Is this true?

I don’t know where to easily verify this but Spinozi said this morning that he heard Aaron Tuttle say that OKC is pushing 2000 days without a 4 inch snowfall. Is this true?


Pretty easy to debunk. March 4th 2015 was 1743 days ago. One may say that's "pushing 2000 days", but one may also say that's "eight and a half months off".

https://www.koco.com/article/daily-record-snow-for-oklahoma-city/4302929

Pretty easy to debunk. March 4th 2015 was 1743 days ago. One may say that's "pushing 2000 days", but one may also say that's "eight and a half months off".

https://www.koco.com/article/daily-record-snow-for-oklahoma-city/4302929

Meh - the cold/snowy weather runs in cycles. I remember a time when I was a teenager that we had a few years with a fairly regular/reliable snow before Christmas, but as I recall it was just a bit too early to last all the way to Christmas. And the last few years, the snow just hasn't fallen...except maybe for that '09 blizzard LOL ...

My apologies, it appears I borrowed Aaron Tuttle's calculator. It was 1379 days. So a bit off, there. I'm guessing I made a typo on the year.

I look at the last decade compared to ones before it and there is definitely a shift happening in our climate. Pretty scary really how fast it has happened too.

20-40mph north winds are coming into C OK right now. This will continue into the night and a cold rain will develop overhead this afternoon. Maybe some wet snow mixing in heading into dark, but nothing significant is expected.

Rain will develop along I-35 corridor and be stationary until slowly pushing east. The strong winds will be the main story.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2018121312/hrrr_ref_frzn_scus_12.png

So going by previous forecast busts this rain will move out and the sun will shine and the temps will go up to 70 degrees.