Beautiful weather today and tomorrow.

Cold front comes in Wednesday and Thursday switching our winds out of the north. This will filter down cold air and give us weak rain chances Thursday. Friday morning looks like it could be OKC first technical freeze with lows in the lower 30s. And if it doesn't happen Friday morning, it will probably happen Saturday morning.

The weekend will be cold, but sunny. Highs Friday will be in the upper 40s, Saturday and Sunday low 50s.

Looking long-term, we will be pretty cool next week until maybe warming up some around the 15th-17th window ahead of a large storm system.

It is looking like an additional cold wave will come down Monday/Tuesday and give us lows in the teens, with maybe struggling to make 40F on Tuesday. This will be ahead of a gradual warm up for the remainder of the week.

And we are seeing some local outfits trumping up a winter storm for Monday. #sigh

Waiting for tonight's model data before commenting on this.

We have talked about it before, but moisture breeds moisture. We are entering this winter with a bank of moisture instead of drought - this is the first time in a while this has happened. It could aid in leading to a wetter winter season for us. The question is will the cold air accompany it or will we get a lot of chilly rains?


Beginning early Monday morning we could see moisture with a powerful cold air plunge across the region. Models right now put temperatures across most of OK right around 30-33F. With precipitation falling, the air column will easily cool and we could see a wet snowfall during the daylight hours. With ground temperatures being up from the previous Saturday and Sunday sunshine, we will likely see minimal accumulation. But snowfall rate could be high enough to overpower the melting, even if for a couple hours before eventual melt-off.

As always, track of the low is going to determine if and where any snow occurs. Right now, it looks like the I-44 corridor has the best shot at a wet snowfall. Again, travel impacts will likely be minimal except maybe visibility during peak snowfall under heavier bands. Here are some model predictions below. I will keep these updated as we move closer to the event and short-range models arrive into window. Light precipitation could start in C OK as early as around midnight Sunday night/Monday morning.


NAM:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2018110912/namconus_asnow_scus_29.png

CAN:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2018110912/gem_asnow_scus_18.png

GFS:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2018110912/gfs_asnow_scus_19.png

^Great info. Thanks!

FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO
10 AM CST SATURDAY...
* TEMPERATURES...As low as 21.
* TIMING...Friday evening through Saturday morning.
* IMPACTS...Frost and freeze conditions may damage sensitive
vegetation. Take steps now to protect tender plants from the
cold.

Some updates.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2018111112/gem_asnow_scus_6.png



https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2018111112/gfs_asnow_scus_14.png



https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/rgem/2018111112/rgem_asnow_scus_48.png



https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2018111112/namconus_asnow_scus_16.png

Interesting how the NAM is showing higher totals in the high country of E OK/W AR. I remember once driving from Louisiana back to Oklahoma through the Arkansas mountains in December and where the highway crossed a ridge there was snow but nothing in the valleys. They aren’t the Rockies but I think that happens occasionally during winter.

Winter Weather Advisory Winter Weather Advisory
Updated: Sun Nov-11-18 01:48pm CST
Effective: Sun Nov-11-18 06:00pm CST
Expires: Mon Nov-12-18 12:00pm CST

Severity: Minor
Urgency: Expected
Certainty: Likely

Status: Actual
Type: Alert
Category: Met
Areas affected: Lincoln; Logan; Oklahoma; Payne

Instructions: A winter weather advisory for snow means periods of snow will cause primarily travel difficulties. Expect snow covered roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

Message summary: ...snow expected late tonight through monday morning...
.northern two thirds of oklahoma will see 1 to 4 inches of snow tonight through monday morning with higher amounts up to 6 inches possible in northwest oklahoma.
...winter weather advisory in effect from 6 pm this evening to noon cst monday...
* what...snow expected. Total snow accumulations of up to two inches expected.
* where...logan, payne, oklahoma and lincoln counties.
* when...from 6 pm this evening to noon cst monday.
* additional details...plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning commute.

Counties in blue have winter weather advisory:
https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/png/oun.png

Rain and drizzle is developing now across W and SW OK. Already snowing in far NW OK.

Precipitation will continue to fill in and increase in intensity overnight. For OKC area, rain and drizzle will pickup after midnight, and switch over to moderate snow by daybreak following with pockets of heavy snow by mid-morning. The snow will mostly out of the area by mid-afternoon and we will actually probably see the sun come out just before sunset. This will set the page for a frigid night with temperatures in the teens and twenties across most of the state.


HRRR:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2018111202/hrrr_asnow_scus_18.png

Light snow showers and flurries for the remainder of the morning. The heavier bands have already moved on.

Extremely cold night ahead with temperatures across the board in the teens.

Guess OKC will end up with slightly less than an inch?

Yes the snow is done except for this last hurrah of flurries.

Moving forward, after tomorrow's bone chilling start and high temp just above freezing, we will thaw out as we head toward the weekend where temperatures should be in the mid to upper 50s.

Next precipitation action looks to be around Thanksgiving time frame.

In the medium range outlook are there 2 potential winter storms heading for Oklahoma? The lessor of the 2 shows up around the 29th of November and the stronger one around December 3rd. Does this verify and is it worth watching for?

In the medium range outlook are there 2 potential winter storms heading for Oklahoma? The lessor of the 2 shows up around the 29th of November and the stronger one around December 3rd. Does this verify and is it worth watching for?

In the current forecast models, which will change, the first system on 11/29 looks like it will be a cold rain but the second system will have more cold air and could be more ice/snow for OK.

It looks like the state will be dry all next week outside of some patchy drizzle on Sunday. Sunday will be cold and blustery. Maybe some clouds from a system in Texas on Wednesday/Thursday, and much warmer.

I know these longer range outlooks have a major bust factor with them. Was just curious and it looks like December will be a busy month weather wise for Oklahoma.

Solid holiday weather coming up. Highs near 60, lows 30s. Slight chance of some passing showers Thursday evening, best chances E OK.

Saturday could be 70F. Front comes through Sunday turning winds up to 20mph out of the north and is generally miserable with highs in the 40s.

Long-range, maybe some storm activity on the horizon looking into next week and the first week of December.