As mentioned a while back, tropical development has occurred in the GOM. TS Gordon will be making landfall somewhere east of New Orleans and tracking toward the plains.

Right now we have moisture streaming up across the region along a boundary that is nearly stationary. This will continue to provide rain and storm chances, especially in afternoons.

In terms of the tropical storm track, we will likely see a track that favors a path through Arkansas. With this storm, emphasis on precipitation will be very localized and the storm will dissipate very quickly. The main precipitation will be concentrated on the north and eastern sides of the circulation. This will place the majority of associated rain chances in extreme E OK. Although, the rest of the state will still be impacted with scattered storms that are firing off of the outerbands/stationary boundary as the storm approaches. Random placement of rain/storm clusters will be the name of the game, but in general forecast models put a heavier concentration of rain along I-35 corridor, and then obviously extreme E OK from any remnants of Gordon.


https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i.gif?1536070112

Finally, Sunday afternoon became sunny after nearly a week's absence of the sun. The map shows Oklahoma got some rain over the past week, some places got a lot. 10 day forecast not showing a return of the 90s.

https://stillwaterweather.com/photos/rainamounts7day.png

While the Carolinas brace for potential hurricane impact. The GOM will be favorable near TX for tropical development. Impact will likely be high clouds over OK later in the week.

Florence has made landfall and is now sliding south and west along the coast. Massive flooding will take place in the area over the weekend. With emphasis on the Wilmington region.

Our weather here in OK will continue to be amazing. Highs in 80s and lows in 70s. Mostly cloudy/hazey conditions will exist due to the clouds coming off the tropical disturbance across southern TX. Our best chance @ rain coming up is Sunday afternoon, but it is a very small chance.

Looking ahead, our next legitimate shot @ rain is showing up around the 21st, with potential for severe weather.

Florence has made landfall and is now sliding south and west along the coast. Massive flooding will take place in the area over the weekend. With emphasis on the Wilmington region.

Our weather here in OK will continue to be amazing. Highs in 80s and lows in 70s. Mostly cloudy/hazey conditions will exist due to the clouds coming off the tropical disturbance across southern TX. Our best chance @ rain coming up is Sunday afternoon, but it is a very small chance.

Looking ahead, our next legitimate shot @ rain is showing up around the 21st, with potential for severe weather.

Looks like it could be followed by a nice cool down too. Classic fall severe weather set up, at least how it looks right now.

We definitely do not need severe weather. Does classic mean high end? are the TV shysters hyping this one up??

Still summer for the next few days.

We will likely see heavy rain and storms on Friday late morning carrying into the nighttime hours. This will be from a dying tropical system out near the Baja California Peninsula that will be pulled up into a strong coldfront across the plains. Localized flash flooding will be possible. Emphasis will be on C and E OK.

This front will knock temperatures down for next week giving us beautiful weather - highs in the low 80s. This will be ahead of another strong system that will effect the area around the 27th and close out the month of September.

Looking long-range past that, we could see temperatures struggling to make 60s for highs heading into the first week of October. Fall is coming.

^^that I like!

Ol’ Mike Morgan was hyping up the Euro model for the rest of the week. Showing central corridor of the state getting nearly a foot of rain.

Ol’ Mike Morgan was hyping up the Euro model for the rest of the week. Showing central corridor of the state getting nearly a foot of rain.

Yeah, and it's actually been fairly consistent with it, too -- most of the area gets 4-6" with isolated areas 10"+. We'll see what happens (the American models have roughly 2-5", which is still a ton of rain all at once).

Many area high schools are moving their Friday football games to Thursday (tonight).

http://www.weather.gov/images/oun/graphicast/image1.png?ee0082bbbda821ebe34a18399b56f3ab

http://www.weather.gov/images/oun/graphicast/image5.png?ee0082bbbda821ebe34a18399b56f3ab

Ol’ Mike Morgan was hyping up the Euro model for the rest of the week. Showing central corridor of the state getting nearly a foot of rain.

And Aaron Tuttle is jumping on the wagon forecasting "catastrophic" flooding for central OK..

https://uniim1.shutterfly.com/ng/services/mediarender/THISLIFE/022046773943/media/124111053070/medium/1537462822/enhance

Most of this morning's model runs have trended drier for the metro, with a general 2-4" (still nothing to sneeze at) and better chances of 4"+ the further south and east you go. This morning's Euro does have a swath of 6"+ from SE of Wichita Falls through Ada and McAlester, with isolated areas over a foot, though, so someone's going to get dumped on.

It is the last weekend of the State Fair. No surprise about the rain.

Pick your favorite forecast model!

NAM is consistently slamming C OK.

All other models slam S and E OK.


https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2018092018/gfs_apcpn_scus_8.png




https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2018092018/namconus_apcpn_scus_28.png




https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2018092018/nam3km_apcpn_scus_16.png




https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/wrf-nmm/2018092012/wrf-nmm_apcpn_scus_48.png




https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2018092012/gem_apcpn_scus_14.png




https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/wrf-arw/2018092012/wrf-arw_apcpn_scus_48.png

Hoping the NAM is the right one!!

Hoping the NAM is the right one!!
Surprise!

Whichever the model prediction, lawn is mowed. Bring it!

Whichever the model prediction, lawn is mowed. Bring it!
Ditto!

^^^^

^Mine was partially mowed today too....by army worms. Craziest thing I have ever seen. Noticed some smallish worms on the patio and happened to look in grass and literally THOUSANDS of them just going to town. Called the lawn guy and he said they have been inundated with calls today. They came out this afternoon and put some product down and watered it in.....GONE. Appeared like something out of a movie though....OK, back to weather (sorry).

Already shaping up to miss OKC with the heavy rain. Figures. The ground can use a good soaking, and it will miss Midwest City with any rain of consequence.

Already shaping up to miss OKC with the heavy rain. Figures. The ground can use a good soaking, and it will miss Midwest City with any rain of consequence.

I was just going to mention that the doughnut effect is in full force for the start of this event. Its amazing how dry it is with all that rain we had just the other day.

Sure seems to me that, in general, most of these mods tend to be VERY aggressive with moisture predictions that usually mitigate significantly as time progresses. I remember lots of hysterical winter forecasts for extraordinary snowfall based on the same projected moisture/precip. If this is a repeatable pattern in the models, why do they not feed that reality back into the models?

Already shaping up to miss OKC with the heavy rain. Figures. The ground can use a good soaking, and it will miss Midwest City with any rain of consequence.

We're getting steady heavy rain at NW 36th/May right now. Not thunderstorm-level, just good hard rain.

Already over 6 inches down in Fittstown.

^Mine was partially mowed today too....by army worms. Craziest thing I have ever seen. Noticed some smallish worms on the patio and happened to look in grass and literally THOUSANDS of them just going to town. Called the lawn guy and he said they have been inundated with calls today. They came out this afternoon and put some product down and watered it in.....GONE. Appeared like something out of a movie though....OK, back to weather (sorry).

I had never heard of those until last week - they got into a couple of fields in my cousins farms nw of here and ate what would have been 50 tons of hay over the course of a few days on what would have been his last cuts of the season - we were able to get in there and salvage a 150 or so bails before they got the rest of it - it is crazy how fast and how much they can eat

Two localized areas of concern setting up for flooding:

A corridor from Duncan to McAlester. Localized areas within this zone could see over a foot of rain by the end of the day. I would not be surprised if I-35 in this area has issues later today and may even close north of Ardmore.

A small area SW of Tulsa along and near I-44 in the Bristow area could see significant amounts of rain relative to the surrounding areas.

Already shaping up to miss OKC with the heavy rain. Figures. The ground can use a good soaking, and it will miss Midwest City with any rain of consequence.

We seem to be getting good rain right now, maybe not the crazy amount of rain that was earlier forecasted for okc. We are good drought condition wise. Its southwest Oklahoma that really needs the rain.

We seem to be getting good rain right now, maybe not the crazy amount of rain that was earlier forecasted for okc. We are good drought condition wise. Its southwest Oklahoma that really needs the rain.

It's pretty crazy here in the Midtown area.

Originally, the forecast in my area was for 5 inches today.

Then, it went down to under 2.

Already today, we have had close to 4 inches at my house and it looks like there is a lot more to come.

Already shaping up to miss OKC with the heavy rain. Figures. The ground can use a good soaking, and it will miss Midwest City with any rain of consequence.

In other words, if Midwest City is like Stillwater, things will look like this. Rainfall amounts from around Sept 5. My heart goes out to those being adversely impacted from the current heavy rainfall.

https://stillwaterweather.com/photos/rainsept5-2018.jpg
http://stillwaterweather.com/wxgraphic.php?type=banner_big

The storm is just stuck on top of us right now.

https://i.imgur.com/nU1Rg0q.png?1

when i left for work this morning saw 2 different neighbors sprinkler systems on. I just shook my head. Either lazy or living under a rock

The main low is now sliding ESE and will slowly turn off the rain on the NW sides of the system, so rainfall will dissipate from NW to SE. Along I-44 and especially to the SE will continue to accumulate rain.

Fittstown is about to officially break a foot of rain in less than 10 hours.

when i left for work this morning saw 2 different neighbors sprinkler systems on. I just shook my head. Either lazy or living under a rock

I'm sure some people even know how to work the timers or know anything about their systems and just let the sprinkler companies handle it all.

We are living in an area where a large chunk of the population has no mechanical skills or the mindset of how to fix things themselves.

we had so much rain in bethany i had to clear out the drainage that runs down one side of our house to keep water from coming in the side door on our garage

On Friday, Southern Oklahoma was the target for another heavy rainy period in the state, peaking out at 14.10", so far. Oklahoma City and Tulsa areas got 2 to 4+ inches. Fortunately, other than flash flooding, there were no other problems associated with severe weather. It was the result from the remains of a tropical low coming up from the south meeting with a slow moving cold front.
https://stillwaterweather.com/photos/rainsept21.png

Some of these systems rely on water sensors to determine if there is rain present before kicking off...and.sometimes those sensors are problematic. And if you wait to turn off the sprinkler until after the heavy rain has started, chances are you're not going to run into the heavy rain to the control box and turn it all off. Not saying that's right, just a defect inherent in the process.

Some of these systems rely on water sensors to determine if there is rain present before kicking off...and.sometimes those sensors are problematic. And if you wait to turn off the sprinkler until after the heavy rain has started, chances are you're not going to run into the heavy rain to the control box and turn it all off. Not saying that's right, just a defect inherent in the process.

The new generation of Wifi enabled sprinkler controllers is great! They'll cancel a scheduled watering due to recent rain, forecast rain, high wind amounts, etc. I have a Rachio 2 but I got a family member the Orbit B Hyve and he loves it. One of my favorite home gadgets!

The new generation of Wifi enabled sprinkler controllers is great! They'll cancel a scheduled watering due to recent rain, forecast rain, high wind amounts, etc. I have a Rachio 2 but I got a family member the Orbit B Hyve and he loves it. One of my favorite home gadgets!

Yeah, there nice. I think most will be resistant to spending money on this technology and some dont want a system connected to the cloud.

The cold front that moved across the state last night into this morning brought a much-needed drink to the southwest corner of Oklahoma - currently the thirstiest areas of the state. Looking at rainfall totals between 1"-2" in the areas remaining under the worst of the drought conditions in the state. Rainfall totals for the eastern half of the state will continue to rise as the rain clears from west to east.

http://www.okctalk.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=14941&d=1537990690

http://www.okctalk.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=14940&d=1537990461

The cold front that moved across the state last night into this morning brought a much-needed drink to the southwest corner of Oklahoma - currently the thirstiest areas of the state. Looking at rainfall totals between 1"-2" in the areas remaining under the worst of the drought conditions in the state. Rainfall totals for the eastern half of the state will continue to rise as the rain clears from west to east.

http://www.okctalk.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=14941&d=1537990690

http://www.okctalk.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=14940&d=1537990461

I feel this greatly underestimated how much rain MWC got. My apartment complex got a couple inches. Maybe that is just localized, but still. Good rain for much of the state.

Looks like unsettled weather returns at the end of next week into the first weekend of October. Another cold front interacting with what should be plentiful Gulf moisture, enhanced by a tropical system that will move over the West mid-next week.

http://derecho.math.uwm.edu/models/ep202018.png

Oh man. Early forecasts for OU-Texas weekend are horrible. Hoping things change.

Slight chance @ a random shower or two tonight. Best shot is NW and N OK.

Beautiful weekend on tap. And the following work week looks fantastic. Powerful cold front comes in somewhere around the 4th or 5th of October with rain and storms.

This pleases me greatly.

Slight chance @ a random shower or two tonight. Best shot is NW and N OK.

Beautiful weekend on tap. And the following work week looks fantastic. Powerful cold front comes in somewhere around the 4th or 5th of October with rain and storms.

And for those of us watching Dallas for OU-TX weather, the GFS has pulled back almost entirely from the monsoon. Mositure staying west for now.

Storms may be rolling into NW OK through Sat pm/evening, which might affect trips home.

And for those of us watching Dallas for OU-TX weather, the GFS has pulled back almost entirely from the monsoon. Mositure staying west for now.

Storms may be rolling into NW OK through Sat pm/evening, which might affect trips home.

Looks warm and humid but dry for the game. There could at least be some clouds around with a chance of storms late Saturday into Sunday.

Decent rain chances across OK for the weekend.

I am not looking forward to this weather change that is supposedly coming. Watching the TV meteorologists here is so damn aggravating.

I am not looking forward to this weather change that is supposedly coming. Watching the TV meteorologists here is so damn aggravating.

Why is it agrivating to watch them?

Looks warm and humid but dry for the game. There could at least be some clouds around with a chance of storms late Saturday into Sunday.

Decent rain chances across OK for the weekend.

Yeah I'm looking at some of that rain being heavy. Don't like driving I35 in that heavy stuff :(

The cold front that just barely touched OKC last evening has retreated back to the NW. This front will push back and forth from SW KS to C OK multiple times over the next few days. We will see multiple disturbances ride along this boundary giving most of OK chances of rain and storms (especially across W OK). The system is very large and will impact the majority of the country, including potential GOM development of a tropical storm or hurricane impacting the SE USA. The information below will pertain to Oklahoma.


This evening, we will likely see storms develop in the TX PH and NW OK. This will create outflow boundaries that could spark additional development to the south and east. If this boundary is stout enough, it could spark a thin line of rain/storms even as far SE as OKC region. But the heavier rainfall will remain in W and NW OK. As the night goes on, the front will push further south and east and stall out somewhere over C OK.

•Saturday morning the boundary will be either stationary over C OK or drifting slightly NW across the area. We will see a large swath of rain and storm develop across NW TX and ride up along this boundary. Moderate and heavy rainfall is likely anywhere along I-44 and to the NW.

•We will likely have a break in the action sometime Saturday afternoon/evening, before another round comes through early Sunday morning. Models are having a difficult time determining the timing of the rounds as the disturbances and their spacing is difficult to forecast until they are developed on radar.

•Sunday appears we'll have a short break in the action after morning rain. The front could pass back to the NW at this time, giving parts of the state time to bask in warm humid air and potential sunshine. This scenario could setup the evening for severe weather across the region as another disturbance will push through. Flooding potential is the main threat with any storms that do fire up, especially across W and C OK.

•Monday could be a bit of a break during the daytime, before a likely strong-to-severe line of storms pushes through late and into early hours of Tuesday morning. This would be the final round of storms from this large system. Severe threat will be wind and hail, with flash flooding due to recent rainfall in the area.

The timing of everything above is a best guess based on model data I have looked at. Just pay attention to radar for the next several days in regards to outdoor planning and travel. I will follow up this post with some model's rainfall totals as we get new data this evening.

After this system is out of the way, we will see highs in the upper 60s and lows in the lower 50s and upper 40s. Our next action could be following close behind with a tropical remnant setup that would impact the state next weekend if all holds true.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2018100518/gfs_apcpn_scus_20.png



https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2018100518/namconus_apcpn_scus_28.png




https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/rgem/2018100518/rgem_apcpn_scus_54.png

Ummmm just curious what has happened to the heavy rains we have been hearing about all week. Did the system weaken or go a different route or slow down?

Ummmm just curious what has happened to the heavy rains we have been hearing about all week. Did the system weaken or go a different route or slow down?

Much of western and central Oklahoma, including the metro area under a flood watch, starting at 1 am Sunday morning. I don't think much has changed overall.

FLOOD WATCH
Areas Affected:
Alfalfa - Beckham - Blaine - Caddo - Canadian - Cleveland - Comanche - Cotton - Custer - Dewey - Ellis - Garfield - Grady - Grant - Greer - Harmon - Harper - Jackson - Kay - Kingfisher - Kiowa - Lincoln - Logan - Major - McClain - Noble - Oklahoma - Payne - Roger Mills - Tillman - Washi ta - Woods - Woodward
Effective: Sat, 10/6 2:48pm Updated: Sat, 10/6 3:55pm Urgency: Future
Expires: Tue, 10/9 1:00pm Severity: Moderate Certainty: Possible

Details:

...Heavy Rain Expected Through Tuesday...
.Periods of heavy rain which will likely cause flooding in some
areas is expected through Tuesday.
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM CDT SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...
The National Weather Service in Norman has issued a
* Flood Watch for flash flooding...flooding of creeks and
rivers...and flooding of low lying areas for portions of
Oklahoma and northern Texas, including the following areas, in
Oklahoma, Alfalfa, Beckham, Blaine, Caddo, Canadian,
Cleveland, Comanche, Cotton, Custer, Dewey, Ellis, Garfield,
Grady, Grant, Greer, Harmon, Harper, Jackson, Kay, Kingfisher,
Kiowa, Lincoln, Logan, Major, McClain, Noble, Oklahoma, Payne,
Roger Mills, Tillman, Wa****a, Woods, and Woodward. In
northern Texas, Archer, Baylor, Foard, Hardeman, Knox,
Wichita, and Wilbarger.

* From 1 AM CDT Sunday through Tuesday afternoon
* Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches will be likely across the area.
However, some areas of 5 to 7+ inches of rain will be possible,
especially in portions of western Oklahoma and western north
Texas.
Precautionary/preparedness actions...
A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on
current forecasts.
You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible
Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be
prepared to take action should flooding develop.

Counties covered in green:
https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/png/oun.png

So far, as of early Sunday morning, most of the heaviest rain is in south central Oklahoma:

https://www.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/realtime/current.24hour-rainrfc_front580.png

We should see storms develop in the next few hours. General corridor will be just west of I-35. The large swath comes later into the morning hours for Tuesday.

It's nice to see the SW part of the state getting some much needed rain. Hurricane Michael, if it heads the right way, should give us a bit of rain.

It's nice to see the SW part of the state getting some much needed rain. Hurricane Michael, if it heads the right way, should give us a bit of rain.

You mean Sergio? That one could impact Oklahoma's weather this weekend into early next week depending on the final track.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/EP21/refresh/EP212018_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/144852_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

https://s.newsweek.com/sites/www.newsweek.com/files/styles/lg/public/2018/10/04/hurricane-sergio-spaghetti-models.png