A radar look at how the rain is training from west OKC to near the Kansas border as of Monday evening. As much as 2 to 3 inches per hour says Mike Morgan
https://stillwaterweather.com/photos/raintrain.gif

So this has been an interesting morning...

No kidding. I heard our NOAA radio go off and thought it was screwed up or something.

Main action all moving into E OK for the remainder of today. We will see random spotty showers here in C OK through lunch, until clearing behind this.

Cold, dry air moves in between 9-11pm tonight in C OK. This will setup for our first "cold" morning of the fall season. OKC should get down to around 45-48F by sunrise. A few spots in the panhandle might touch 32F.

60s for highs and 40s for lows for the remainder of the week. Impacts from remnants of tropical system Sergio looks likely at this time. A window of about 15-24 hours of flooding rainfall is currently forecast for a large part of OK over the weekend.

Sounds like there was some noteworthy damage out in Midwest City, with roofs torn off and this the scene at JC Pennys:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DpElU6fU0AAjPw3.jpg

https://twitter.com/lauren_daniels4/status/1049661234956685312

that picture in front of Jc Penny has to be altered...

No way there was that many cars in front of a JC Penny at 9am on a tuesday. NO way

14953

We were eating breakfast at the iHop on Air Depot when it hit. Just super strong winds and torrents of rain.

Hurricane Sergio still expected to impact OK weather this weekend

https://s.newsweek.com/sites/www.newsweek.com/files/styles/embed-lg/public/2018/10/09/hurricane-sergio-spaghetti-models.png

Cold front just came through around 10pm for OKC. We will see cooler air filter in from the NW all night.

Panhandle of FL will be facing a direct landfall of a very compact hurricane by mid-day tomorrow.

Future hurricane remnants from Sergio are still forecasted to track directly over OK this weekend.

Sergio's track is going to create a sharp drop off of heavy rain accumulation to almost nothing somewhere along the NW edge, which of course is setting up somewhere across C OK.

This is mostly a Saturday daytime event. With potential for redevelopment with the main low late Sunday night. However, all model trends are taking Sergio mainly over SE OK, so OKC may just get clouds and some passing showers.

Pretty much 20 miles of N/S deviation in track will determine a trace versus 1-2" of rain. Just plan everything based on radar trends before you head out. 18Z GFS not loaded in yet, but I am sure it won't be much different than the current consensus:


https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2018101218/nam3km_apcpn_scus_13.png



https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/rgem/2018101212/rgem_apcpn_scus_45.png



https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/wrf-arw/2018101212/wrf-arw_apcpn_scus_45.png




OKC will get close to a freeze both Monday and Tuesday morning, best chance being Tuesday morning, but likely just an elevated frost.

GFS is in:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2018101218/gfs_apcpn_scus_19.png

Good. It looks like the rain will miss OKC altogether. Tired of the loaded weather. We need some good sunshine loaded fall weather around here.

It has been a very cloudy fall thus far in OKC. An average September here has about 71% sunshine, this September was only 45%. And it's not exactly appearing that October is about to break that trend, with Tuesday and Wednesday looking like the only mostly sunny days in the next week.

It’s a weird feeling to have a day in the 30’s and 40’s and still be needing to mow my yard. If only it’d dry out a tad.

Big time cold front about to move through the Metro. As of 2:30, the wind chill was 58 at the Yukon Mesonet site and 39 at the El Reno Mesonet site, so conditions will change quickly.

It’s a weird feeling to have a day in the 30’s and 40’s and still be needing to mow my yard. If only it’d dry out a tad.

Next weekend looks pretty good for that. I need to do the same as well!

Slight chance of rain tonight, mostly coming up from dying showers coming out of NW TX. This disturbance will gain steam as we head through Thursday and then as we head into Thursday evening, rain will spread across the state from SW to NE into Friday morning hours.

This will all clear out by Friday evening and should give us a stellar Saturday with highs in the upper 60s with virtually zero wind. It will be a great weekend for outdoor activity.

Tornadoes have been shifting east. But are decreasing in Oklahoma, Texas and Kansas, while spinning up more in states along the Mississippi River and farther east. Scientists aren't sure why but do suspect global warming. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-6285581/Tornadoes-spinning-farther-east-US-study-finds.html

Tornadoes east of OK happen far more frequently at night than in OK. l suspect a lot of this may have to do with radar and digital technology that spots nighttime tornadoes when human eyes don't see them, as well as digital recording technology that let's tornadoes be paired with damage zones after-the-fact. As for decreases in the plains? ld like to see a lot more years data with modern technology.

Tornadoes have been shifting east. But are decreasing in Oklahoma, Texas and Kansas, while spinning up more in states along the Mississippi River and farther east. Scientists aren't sure why but do suspect global warming. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-6285581/Tornadoes-spinning-farther-east-US-study-finds.html

I believe it is a matter of meteorological history that tornado frequency tends to shift over time, from the traditional "tornado alley" , then to the NE/E, then back south, and to it's "traditional" home here in the midwest. I do not have empirical data at hand to back that up, but I do believe that the shift is actually part of a normal atmospheric pattern, not really "caused" by anything.

Should it be safe to winterize my sprinkler system for the year?

I believe it is a matter of meteorological history that tornado frequency tends to shift over time, from the traditional "tornado alley" , then to the NE/E, then back south, and to it's "traditional" home here in the midwest. I do not have empirical data at hand to back that up, but I do believe that the shift is actually part of a normal atmospheric pattern, not really "caused" by anything.

It is also likely tied to areas that have been plagued by drought like the TX/OK panhandles and western OK/KS/NE. These are areas that are vulnerable to increased desertification if trends continue.

Tornadoes have been shifting east. But are decreasing in Oklahoma, Texas and Kansas, while spinning up more in states along the Mississippi River and farther east. Scientists aren't sure why but do suspect global warming. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-6285581/Tornadoes-spinning-farther-east-US-study-finds.html

Looking at records, Oklahoma's spring tornado season was notably quieter prior to 1999. The total number of tornadoes is trending upwards in the state slightly but the month of May has experienced a pronounced increase in activity over the past two decades. I am certain this is partially because current technology is better at detecting weak tornadoes but is that the entire explanation?

https://image.ibb.co/cUtRO0/OKTornadoes-May.jpg

Appears to be our first relatively quiet period in a while coming up. Wednesday looks to be our only real rain chance in the next week, and even that event seems to be trending drier.

Weather channel calls for 90% rain on Wed, but we all know how accurate they are so it really sounds like we are entering a period of fall like sunny weather for at least a few weeks that we so desperately need. It should stay that way till next summer, no rain or cold all winter long would be amazing. Climate prediction center says warmer winter anyway. so I am on board with that.

The GFS had been hinting at a large storm over the Plains around Halloween but has backed off the last few runs.

Weather channel calls for 90% rain on Wed, but we all know how accurate they are so it really sounds like we are entering a period of fall like sunny weather for at least a few weeks that we so desperately need. It should stay that way till next summer, no rain or cold all winter long would be amazing. Climate prediction center says warmer winter anyway. so I am on board with that.

I mean. I'd personally prefer a weather pattern that doesn't have us getting 4.46" of precipitation in a six month period followed by 35.67" over the next six months, which is what's happened here over the past year. I get that this state will always be drier from mid-October to mid-March, and wetter during the seven months in between (with the exception of July and August if the ridge is overhead), but this past year has been ridiculous in that regard.

I wonder if this winter will be as wet as this fall as been? I saw long range forecast somewhere that seem to indicate a warmer winter but don't know about how wet it'll be. My wife wants tons and tons of snow. Wonder if she'll get what she's wishing for. What will this winter give us????

As others have mentioned above, beautiful weather, save for Wednesday afternoon where we will likely see light to moderate rain move across the state. Nothing too exciting, just another piece of dying tropical systems.

Next big action looks to be around Halloween timeframe with potential for severe weather.

Large area of general light rain with pockets of moderate showers is spreading into the state now. The only impact expected will be things getting wet.

This will likely lead to a cloudy first half of Thursday, but set us up for a beautiful weekend with sunshine, highs in the 70s, and minimal winds.

I see 80’s for Saturday!! Keep that warmth and sunshine coming!

Great news, Anonymous and Ian. Thank you.

Saturday will be gorgeous, Sunday could be rather brisk as a cold front passes through with strong northerly winds behind it. Highs in the mid 60's but it will likely feel colder.

I predict that the forecasted temperature is off by 7 degrees... I think it will be 86 or 87 degrees for tomorrow. I wish that to roll right on through all of Nov.

I predict that the forecasted temperature is off by 7 degrees... I think it will be 86 or 87 degrees for tomorrow. I wish that to roll right on through all of Nov.

Nah, I would prefer not to risk catching the whole state of OK on fire with a deep breath.

It looks like we will have 80 degree plus temps all week next week! That makes me happy!

It looks like we will have 80 degree plus temps all week next week! That makes me happy!

https://i.imgur.com/qA6hDkM.png

Better enjoy it when there is decent fall weather in Oklahoma.

Perfect weather until Wednesday. Unfortunately for Halloween, it will likely be cold, windy, and some drizzle/showers. Another shot of cold air may come down on Friday, but we warmup quickly after that into the following week.

Slight chance of showers tomorrow, much better chance Wednesday and Thursday. Last couple GFS runs trying to bring a winter storm into OK/TX around November 12.

Revised forecast for November looks cool and on the wet side.

https://stillwaterweather.com/img/novrevised.jpg

Winter storm? Is the work of those fear mongering idiots Payne, Lane, and Morgan? Literally fake news. I can't stand those guys.

Winter storm? Is the work of those fear mongering idiots Payne, Lane, and Morgan? Literally fake news. I can't stand those guys.

Gosh you're annoying with your insults.

Gosh you're annoying with your insults.

Agree. Completely out of line. Especially since BG said it was what a MODEL was showing, not a TV meteorologist.

Agree. Completely out of line. Especially since BG said it was what a MODEL was showing, not a TV meteorologist.

And the models are now just showing OK on the edge of a cold airmass that is descending from Canada with rain/snow chances moving toward the weekend of Nov 16.

And the models are now just showing OK on the edge of a cold airmass that is descending from Canada with rain/snow chances moving toward the weekend of Nov 16.

Crud... Which edge? I'm headed for Lawrence, KS on the 16th and then over to St Louis, MO on the 18th.... Please tell me we are on the eastern edge and not the western.

I am starting a new thread for November.