Another month combination thread because weather is usually pretty boring in the full summer stride.

The ridge of death is still in place with temperatures in the low to mid 90s. Exceptionally high humidity is present for a large majority of the US. Daily Excessive Heat Warnings & Advisories are in effect for many areas from the east coast to the central plains.

For OK, slight chance @ a storm or two Friday afternoon and again Saturday. Nothing significant and consider yourself lucky for a drink.

The ridge looks like it will remain in place through mid-July with signs of a potential breakdown near the 16th.

C OK really missing out on the relief today:

https://www.mesonet.org/data/nids/maps/realtime/Oklahoma.MosaicBREF.png

C OK really missing out on the relief today:

https://www.mesonet.org/data/nids/maps/realtime/Oklahoma.MosaicBREF.png

By any chance, is your name John Titor? How in the hell was a real-time weather report created on July 17, 2018 posted on 07-06-2018? I’m not seeing any indication that the 07-06-2018 post was edited today or anything. Then again, you are “Anonymous,” so changing date and time stamps on a message board should be child’s play for a person with that user name. I’m confused.

By any chance, is your name John Titor? How in the hell was a real-time weather report created on July 17, 2018 posted on 07-06-2018? I’m not seeing any indication that the 07-06-2018 post was edited today or anything. Then again, you are “Anonymous,” so changing date and time stamps on a message board should be child’s play for a person with that user name. I’m confused.

I believe that map updates to show the most recent time and radar. It is a constantly updated radar. When he posted it, it was July 6. But it has updated since.

Hot! Hot! Hot!

This is somewhat weather related. Don't let the date fool you. This Map of the Earth updates quite frequently. https://apod.nasa.gov/apod/ap161010.html

Go to the bottom left and hit the earth hyperlink. It takes you to an interactive map. Hit the earth link again and a menu will pull up with some interesting overlays. I mostly use the wind and temp, but I'm sure there are some weather wizards that will use the other overlays. You can use it to track Tropical Storms, Hurricanes and Typhoons. Give it a try.

I prefer to at least having storms around to just pure hot and dry days, but it looks like that is on its way.

I prefer to at least having storms around to just pure hot and dry days, but it looks like that is on its way.

At least the humidity is going to be lower. I'll deal with a week of temperatures in the 100's if it means we can finally knock the dewpoints down into the 60's...if nothing else, it'll be a change of pace.

Later next week into next weekend, it appears that we'll have a chance at some level of relief from the heat, and possibly a more favorable pattern for convective complexes moving in from Colorado/Kansas.

By any chance, is your name John Titor? How in the hell was a real-time weather report created on July 17, 2018 posted on 07-06-2018? I’m not seeing any indication that the 07-06-2018 post was edited today or anything. Then again, you are “Anonymous,” so changing date and time stamps on a message board should be child’s play for a person with that user name. I’m confused.

Yes, as the other poster pointed out. I posted the map that is a live image that automatically updates. I usually post a screencap of the map to avoid this confusion. But it was laziness on my part.


Dangerous heat continues for all of OK through the weekend. We will see air temperatures over 105 over a large part of the state Thursday and Friday. Knocking down to regular 100 over the weekend for C OK.

Temperature relief comes next week where we get back into uppers 80s and low 90s for highs.

Looking for drought relief, we might see something coming as we get closer to August.

OKC will make a run @ the all-time record (113) high temperature today. We will be around 110F by late afternoon.


https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2018072012/hrrr_T2m_scus_11.png

Crazy how the hottest temps are just concentrated right in Oklahoma. Why is that? Seems oddly localized. Poor Kingfisher county.

Crazy how the hottest temps are just concentrated right in Oklahoma. Why is that? Seems oddly localized. Poor Kingfisher county.

Center of high pressure creating a heat dome?

Hope somebody can explain this heat. Just downright strange, in my humble okie opinion.

Just saw on Weather.com that our record temperature here in Oklahoma is 120. Death Valley, California has the world record high of 134 on July 10, 1913. Now I don't feel so bad.

The low 90s are back. Some cloud cover relief also here for part of C and SW OK until later this Monday afternoon. These temperatures will continue all week with rain chances appearing this weekend. The drought is beginning to get some ground back.

The cloud cover and lower temps were a nice break today. Got some much needed lawn work done.

Large area of remnant storms moving SE into OK panhandle. Good luck and hope they make it down there to bring some relief.

Cool front coming through the metro this afternoon. Cloud cover is the main benefit with eventual cool down of temperatures. Unfortunately most of the rain has fizzled out. We may see a few showers or storms kick up as the front moves through, but this will likely be to the south and east of OKC.

This weekend rain chances increase as waves of storms up in CO and KS come down out of the NW and push into OK. Exact pathing of the storms will be random, but just watch the radar and use judgement off that. Low temperatures in the 60s will be across most of the state, which will be a refreshing change.

Best chances for rain and storms will be Sunday and Monday, where we could have some severe weather (damaging wind) getting into the mix. Temperatures next week look amazing for this time of the year - highs in the low & mid 80s.

First round of rain and storms is developing now across CO and KS. This will congeal and head south and east into OK. Eventually the storms will lose steam as they approach C parts of the state and die out some. Still a decent shot @ rain in OKC for early Saturday morning. So maybe hold off on that tee-time.

Second round will be Sunday morning, very similar scenario.

Third round looks to be Sunday night into Monday and appears to be the most significant. We could have some severe storms and flash flooding in areas for Monday morning.


Here is a screengrab of Saturday morning storms approaching OKC. Gusty winds will be main threat, but the rainfall is worth it.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2018072720/hrrr_ref_frzn_scus_12.png

Obviously the storms last night didn't make it. But another round is on tap for tonight into Sunday morning. Again, the path of the storms will be difficult to predict, Northern OK has the best shot.

MCS is forming now across CO/KS and will gain traction into the overnight as it enters OK Here is a snapshot of storms hitting OKC between 2-4am timeframe. Damaging winds and flash flooding will be the main threats.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2018073001/hrrr_ref_frzn_scus_8.png

MCS is forming now across CO/KS and will gain traction into the overnight as it enters OK Here is a snapshot of storms hitting OKC between 2-4am timeframe. Damaging winds and flash flooding will be the main threats.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2018073001/hrrr_ref_frzn_scus_8.png

What size hail are we looking at with this storm, if any?

Severe watch is out for all of NW, W, and C OK.

Hail could be quarter size, perhaps a little bigger to cause damage. But the main threat will no doubt be wind. Especially across C OK where the models really line-out the storms and strengthen the entire MCS.

Wow, this MCS was extremely well-organized and the apex of the bow plowed right through the city. Have to think that caused a lot of wind damage.

A lot of wind damage came into (especially the west side) of OKC.

Really solid rainfall for a large part of the state.

Lost a few branches including this 8-9" diameter branch last night. Got 2.73" at the house in NW OKC.

https://scontent-ort2-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/38051018_10155911902304200_4718565553738874880_o.j pg?_nc_cat=0&oh=a48e755514dc49d3aa25e608bfa6bb01&oe=5C0D4984

Lost a few branches including this 8-9" diameter branch last night. Got 2.73" at the house in NW OKC.

Was there some sort of wake low with this MCS last night? I noticed there were some really strong north winds about 20-30 minutes after the line first hit.

It was a wake low. Usually all of OK's peak of summer systems that come out of the NW are wake lows. Small pieces of energy spinning around a larger broad low that is normally somewhere near KS/MO/IA.

Unfortunately, the monsoon spigot is being shut down a few days as a high blocks the gulf and pacific moisture flow so we won't be sending storm systems down.

Not sure it can get any better than this in Okla on July 31st. Gorgeous. :)

Top-shelf weather today, pretty much as nice as it can get in Oklahoma in late-July. Outside shot that temperatures at the airport dip into the 50s overnight, which would be nearly 15 degrees below the average low temperature for this time of year.

One more day of hot weather, and then temperatures should cool into the upper 80's for about a week or so. Another nice period of relief from the heat during what's statistically just about the hottest time of the year here.

Yes, most places near 100F today. Mid-90s tomorrow, unless we get lucky with additional cloud cover. Especially over northern OK.

Tuesday evening and Wednesday we will see multiple waves of thunderstorms coming out of the NW and marching across the state. Exact tracks will be difficult to predict until we see what develops, but it looks like most of the state will have a good shot @ meaningful rain. Especially W and C parts of the state. Could see a few storms become severe, but nothing too organized. Flash flooding will be the main threat as the storms are expected to track similar paths.

Models have been stalling the front out further south than initially forecast. This means a little bit cooler temps ahead, but majority of rain impacts also moving south. We will still see storms here in C OK, especially late Tuesday night. But for Tuesday into Wednesday, the rain focus may be closer to the Red River.

Several storms developing over C and EC OK right now. These will generally move E. Storms will have potential to be severe in a pulsing behavior. Heavy rains and gusty winds.

Cluster developing west of OKC currently looks like it could sweep across the OKC metro in the next couple hours.

Storms have mostly fizzled out across C OK, small shower near downtown still dying out.

We will see redevelopment after midnight into the morning hours. We could see flash flooding for morning rushhour across OKC if storms continue to train over the same areas. Short range models estimate some areas receiving 2"+.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2018080718/nam3km_ref_frzn_scus_17.png

The OKC stations are widely divergent on the chances of rain in SW OK, Altus and environs. for this week. What is the real answer? We really need a very good rain around here.

SW OK should get a nice dumping Wednesday night.

I hoped to wake up to a nice drizzle this morning but not a drop yet. I want to stop complaining about the lack of rain and begin b**ching about having to mow the place again.

Was kept up most of the night with storms and woke up to a whopping 4.13" in the rain gauge at my place in NW OKC (the highest 24-hour CoCoRaHS total in the country -- cool! lol), with more coming down. Yeesh!

The thunder was intense. Woke me up a few times and I finally got up around 4:00 am. I live in far NW OKC. My street had water over it.

Was kept up most of the night with storms and woke up to a whopping 4.13" in the rain gauge at my place in NW OKC (the highest 24-hour CoCoRaHS total in the country -- cool! lol), with more coming down. Yeesh!

As of 8:30am, I had 4.3" of rain in my rain gauge on the south side of OKC, 4 miles due east of the airport, with more coming down. I won't know total 24-hour rainfall until I get back home tonight, but that was an impressive amount of rain.

Here's the OK Mesonet 24 hour rainfall totals so far:
http://www.okctalk.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=14843&d=1533755026

The system that brought us heavy rains will be stalling out across western TX. This along with the boundary being draped across the state will activate more rain chances as pieces of energy get shredding off the main low as it just spins around in Texas.

Today and Friday will be our warmest days in maybe the next 10+. We will see highs in the lower 80s and morning lows in the low 70s beginning Sunday. Rain chances really kick back up Saturday evening into Sunday. But even Saturday could see some storms.

This coming weekend and week might be the best opportunity for drought reduction across TX and OK in the last 2 years. Current model forecasts paint up to 4 to 6 inches of rain across a large area of W TX and SW OK trailing off toward C OK.

If models hold the current course, we could see some flood watches posted over the weekend. Especially across SW/S OK.

Afternoon heating will pop up random storms along and north of the I-40 corridor in the next few hours.

The low is really spinning/unraveling out more than forecast, which is dryslotting most of W OK. Heaviest rain corridor over the next 72 hours looks like it will be somewhere close to I-35 and points eastward.

Following the weather predictions for SW OK is about as rewarding and accurate as trusting your fortune to what the daily horoscope says.

Following the weather predictions for SW OK is about as rewarding and accurate as trusting your fortune to what the daily horoscope says.
Then stop following the weather predictions.

Killing the messenger is not the answer, but it is frustrating to live in a drought. Farming communities live and die with the weather, and it is the first and last topic of almost all conversations.

Killing the messenger is not the answer, but it is frustrating to live in a drought. Farming communities live and die with the weather, and it is the first and last topic of almost all conversations.

I was born/raised in far SW Okla....my dad used to say that when it rained 40 days and 40 nights.....we got 1/4 of an inch.

[QUOTE=Anonymous.;1044395]The low is really spinning/unraveling out more than forecast, which is dryslotting most of W OK. Heaviest rain corridor over the next 72 hours looks like it will be somewhere close to I-35 and points eastward.[/QUOT


And on that note just wanted to put my two cents in. Here at my house in Midwest city my digital rain gauge has received a whopping .40 inches of rain during this event. It has found a way to go around or fizzle out every time it gets near. Then this morning i watched as the radar lit up with all the reds and yellows and i thought for sure this was going to be the one that brought the deluge. But as i look at the radar it has found a way to die out again before it gets here and move off to the east and southeast. All i can do it just SMH and laugh.

Yes, the western half of the state basically is dry slotted. We could see redevelopment with the wrap-around energy, which could be significant. However, the most likely area for that to occur is across northern OK.

Mike Morgan is forcasting severe weather for tomorrow afternoon for central up into northern Oklahoma. Hail to golf ball size and 70 mph winds possible.

Mike Morgan is forcasting severe weather for tomorrow afternoon for central up into northern Oklahoma. Hail to golf ball size and 70 mph winds possible.

So is Tuttle: A Rare Summer Severe Weather Event Tuesday: A Tornado Possible http://aarontuttleweather.com/2018/08/13/a-rare-summer-severe-weather-event-tuesday-a-tornado-possible/

[QUOTE=Anonymous.;1044395]

And on that note just wanted to put my two cents in. Here at my house in Midwest city my digital rain gauge has received a whopping .40 inches of rain during this event. It has found a way to go around or fizzle out every time it gets near. Then this morning i watched as the radar lit up with all the reds and yellows and i thought for sure this was going to be the one that brought the deluge. But as i look at the radar it has found a way to die out again before it gets here and move off to the east and southeast. All i can do it just SMH and laugh.
The phenomenon sounds like the Stillwater split in which a very strong storm approaches Stillwater before missing Stillwater with no more than sprinkles, due to it splitting in two. It's most welcome to happen when the storm has a tornado in it.

Mike Morgan is forcasting severe weather for tomorrow afternoon for central up into northern Oklahoma. Hail to golf ball size and 70 mph winds possible.

Mike Morgan is a fearmongering ratings driving cash hoarding greedy good old boy sell out and I really wonder about his meteorological credentials. It’s a wonder he is still around but Oklahoma gonna Oklahoma I guess. Although according to the storm prediction center it looks like we have a marginal chance of storms so The threat can’t be taken with a grain of salt.

Short-range models are indicating storms developing across the area this evening, severe is possible, but it is not a not very high probabilities. These will be wrap-around spawned storms. If anything, I think damaging winds will be possible if a cluster can form across W/NW OK and push east in a bow-echo formation.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2018081412/hrrr_ref_frzn_scus_13.png

Mike Morgan is a fearmongering ratings driving cash hoarding greedy good old boy sell out and I really wonder about his meteorological credentials. It’s a wonder he is still around but Oklahoma gonna Oklahoma I guess. Although according to the storm prediction center it looks like we have a marginal chance of storms so The threat can’t be taken with a grain of salt.

In addition to that, Emily added to the sensation that there won't be a Stillwater split during the period ending Sunday. Yeah, sure, lol. We'll see how the whole rain map turns out.
https://stillwaterweather.com/photos/stwrainamount.jpg

Ever since they came out with the 7 day plus 4 and the 5 plus 5 on Koco, its been wrong 90% of the time 2 days in their forecast. All they do is take what's off these other Weather websites and add their own spin to it. They cannot forecast better that 25% correct 1/2 the time. Just give us a 2-3 day forecast, and quit trying to sensationalize every damn thing. I would love for them to say we got this rain prediction wrong big time, sorry we Sucked at it again. I like David Payne says in his forecasts the Phrase, we've been telling y'all this since last week this next big weather pattern change is coming.. Shut up already.

MD is out for this evening:

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd1287.gif


Mesoscale Discussion 1287
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0335 PM CDT Tue Aug 14 2018

Areas affected...Eastern Texas Panhandle...Western into Central
Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 142035Z - 142300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated severe thunderstorms possible over the next
several hours. Storms may produce isolated severe wind gusts in
addition to large hail. A WW issuance is currently not anticipated.

DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms have recently developed in the
northeast Texas Panhandle into far northwest Oklahoma along a
boundary embedded within a broader zone of confluence. In addition,
a strong storm exhibiting transient supercell characteristics was
located along the McClain/Cleveland County Oklahoma border. These
storms are progressing across a moderately unstable airmass which
has recently undergone recovery from earlier precipitation via
strong surface heating. MLCAPE values of 2000-2500 J/Kg are common
across much of the discussion area, and recent TLX profiler data
suggests modest low-level directional shear (150 m2/s2 SRH) is
present. Still, with modest mid and low-level lapse rates (i.e 6
C/km), and negligible speed shear throughout the troposphere
characterizing the ambient atmosphere, any severe threat that occurs
is expected to be brief. The moderate instability environment
suggests that the more organized/long-lived updrafts may pose a
threat for large hail and gusty winds, though some brief instances
of low-level rotation may be observed with the strongest of storms
given the modest low-level directional shear.

Given the expected isolated nature of the severe threat, a WW
issuance is not expected at this time.

..Squitieri/Hart.. 08/14/2018

Models are continuing their focus on area of extended heavy rainfall somewhere across Central OK, just north of OKC.