What's in store for Oklahoma in June?

Current thinking is a very good (60-70+ % chance) of above average temperatures, below average rainfall, and the persistence/worsening of drought. Eep.

http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20180601/June-temp-outlook.gif

http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20180601/June-precip-outlook.gif

http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20180601/June-drought-outlook.gif

Looks about right. Bring on the drought.

What's in store for Oklahoma in June?

Hot. With a side of hot.

High clouds today streaming off the precipitation down in TX will help cap temperatures here slightly.

Chance of some quick showers/storms late tonight into Tuesday morning, very localized, likely somewhere over C or S OK.

Nice little drink developed this morning on the tail end of an MCS moving through NC OK. Severe storms currently in Stillwater, but otherwise just a few run-of-the-mill thunderstorms for OKC metro.

New severe warning on the storm moving into W sides of OKC now. Flash flooding threat is high.

That’s what I get for watering my yard for the first time yesterday.

Large severe storm moving into Edmond area and N sides of OKC. Tons of lightning. Flash flood warning still in effect for all of C and N metro.

Very bad flash flooding in parts of the metro with N OKC getting 3-4" + inches of rain prompting a Flash Flood Emergency. This was at Penn and Memorial:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=enR1cPJLMP4&feature=youtu.be

Had a ~4" diameter branch come down at my place and pea sized hail with some larger stones mixed in.

SPC upgrading severe risk this afternoon into tonight for the western 1/3rd of OK. Short-range models are latching onto the idea of storms developing near the OK/TX border and into NW OK and form another large MCS that pushes off to the east and southeast. HRRR suggesting a heavier concentration of storms during the overnight hours somewhere near west-central OK.

Main threats will be wind and hail. A slight 2% chance of a tornado in NW OK is outlined. Also the areas over C OK that received 3+ inches of rain this morning will be very susceptible to additional flooding.

Did Moore S OKC get any hail? Wondering about my car...

And if I'm right this storm system started out in Wyoming and made for an impressive picture and video of a tornado before leaving Wyoming? If so, just another amazing example of how the weather sometimes operates.

Did Moore S OKC get any hail? Wondering about my car...
We live 1 mile(approx) sw of Westmoore High School, south of 134th near Penn, and we got no hail at all.

The storm blew bricks off the big windowless AT&T Building downtown damaging several cars parked in the bank parking lot to the north of the building. At least two cars had bricks rip holes completely through their roofs.

Watch is out for W OK:

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0160_radar.gif


Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 160
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
330 PM CDT Thu Jun 7 2018

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Western Oklahoma Oklahoma
Northwest Texas Including the Eastern Panhandle

* Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 330 PM until
1000 PM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

SUMMARY...Storms have developed over northwest Texas near an outflow
boundary within a very unstable air mass. Additional storms may
develop over the eastern Texas Panhandle during the next few hours,
with all activity moving toward western Oklahoma by this evening.
Large hail and strong wind gusts will be the primary threats.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60
statute miles east and west of a line from 70 miles south southeast
of Childress TX to 15 miles north northwest of Gage OK. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

What the heck?! How did the forecasters miss this storm? I'm guessing we got some pretty good hail near 63rd & Expressway... when I got home there was "leaf confetti" EVERYWHERE... holy smokes, some parts of OKC north of Lake Hefner were showing 5+ inches of rain on Wundermap. Coworker in the Village had 3" of water on his front porch with some spilling into the living room.

We live 1 mile(approx) sw of Westmoore High School, south of 134th near Penn, and we got no hail at all.

Thanks! I live about a mile northeast of you

What the heck?! How did the forecasters miss this storm? I'm guessing we got some pretty good hail near 63rd & Expressway... when I got home there was "leaf confetti" EVERYWHERE... holy smokes, some parts of OKC north of Lake Hefner were showing 5+ inches of rain on Wundermap. Coworker in the Village had 3" of water on his front porch with some spilling into the living room.

Damon Lane did a Facebook live the night before and showed one model that showed a cluster of storms hitting OKC during the morning commute... so, he wasn't too far off. But that was an outlier model at the time.

It is difficult and near impossible to predict the randomness of some storm complexes in the plains in the summer months. So many storms ride along their own boundaries and basically choose their own path.

Yesterday's system was a simple MCS coming out of CO/KS that was forecast to move ESE, as it did, the southern outflow boundary kept igniting new development. This development kept compounding on itself to the south and west until it was basically just a large swath of storms. It just happened to be that the I-35 corridor got hit with the main area of development. If you look @ the rainfall map below, you can see just how localized this event was. I have mentioned many times here before, but when a storm effects a largely populated area versus the same event occurring over open fields of nothing - the perception of the forecast is skewed.

This map shows just how localized of an event this was, I-35 just happened to be in the perfect spot for the development zone to be carried out.
https://www.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/realtime/rainrfc.48hr.png

Slight risk for the northwest 2/3 of OK for this evening. A large complex of storms will develop across NE and KS and slide to the south. As it does so, the western edge will be spawning new development. Much like what we saw a in the morning several days ago along I-35. Main threat is damaging winds and flashflooding.


https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2018061112/nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_21.png

Storms developing now in Nebraska inside a tornado watch. These cells will form an MCS and we will see how far south and west it can run and build. Arrival in C OK will be early morning hours if they make it.

MD is out for NW OK. Watch issuance is unlikely, but there is at least one cell trying to go up just west of Enid.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0710.gif

[quotw]Mesoscale Discussion 0710
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0611 PM CDT Mon Jun 11 2018

Areas affected...western Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 112311Z - 120145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated storms capable of hail and wind are possible
across western Oklahoma this evening, but a watch is unlikely.

DISCUSSION...Visible imagery shows a substantial CU field across
western OK where hot temperatures have removed CIN along the
dryline. Meanwhile, robust low-level moisture remains in place with
southeasterly surface winds. The result is very strong instability,
and a zone of uncapped air. Surface convergence near the dryline may
be sufficient for a few storms this evening, with weakly veering
winds with height supporting a south or southwestward motion. Hail
and locally damaging wind will be possible should storms initiate.

..Jewell/Hart.. 06/11/2018[/quote]

Well the storms are actually going to try and make it. Western edge continues to backbuild just like last week. Right now the most dangerous portion is the new development that has quarter size hail and 60mph wind gusts.

OKC, especially eastern sides needs to prepare for this storm in the next hour. Around 8:15am

Storms developing over northern sides of Edmond now. These will continue to try and fill in across OKC metro. Flash flooding and wind is the main threat now.

Storm complex is rapidly fizzling out as we approach 9am. Some redevelopment near Stillwater, but these storms may also stay east of OKC.

It is looking like these storms will affect the metro. Currently strengthening along I-35 and heading due south with western edge development. Strong winds associated with these along with flash flooding rains.

The darn thing can't decide what it wants to do.

I've decided what i want to do, though. Make sure important devices and backup powerbanks are charged.

Severe warning likely coming for this storm. Some hail developing with it and the rain is torrential.

Storms will redevelop this evening across the TX PH and into NW OK. These may or may not make it to central parts of the state. Movement and development will be very random, much like we have seen the past couple weeks.

It looks like parts of W OK could get a really nice drink from some of these storms!



https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2018061217/hrrr_ref_frzn_scus_16.png

Hot with high humidity for the next handful of days. After that, things may get interesting around here with tropical systems coming into play for our region. A dying storm off the Baja will be shredded across the area in the coming days leaving us with a large moisture stream and a subsequent tropical storm forming over the western GOM. Current model tracks are favoring a TX landfall with lingering stationary front over OK. This will give us a relief in temperatures, but more importantly chances at potentially significant rainfall.

Small CU field has formed just NW of C OK. A few storms trying to develop there heading into this evening.

That humidity really makes it feel pretty muggy out there.

Mesonet has a chance of rain for the next 3-5 days and daily high temps seem to be a little more mild. Any chances for severe weather with this system?

Mesonet has a chance of rain for the next 3-5 days and daily high temps seem to be a little more mild. Any chances for severe weather with this system?

Not until Thursday or so. Between now and then, it should just be a heavy rain threat. Starting on Thursday, we should enter a northwest flow pattern which could be more favorable for convective complexes moving in from Colorado/Kansas. Maybe a damaging wind threat with those, but it's a long way out and predictability is low.

Tropical moisture continues to stream in. Last week it looked like the tropical system down in southern Texas was going to be pulled north and merge with an upper level storm system slowly coming out of the Rockies. Now it looks like the tropical system will sink back south into Mexico. Thus decreasing some of our rain potential, or rather putting more of a question mark on it.

The upper system will still be coming across the area, mainly across KS. But some models bring it slightly further south and bring heavy waves of rainfall down across SW KS into NW OK and across our state as they die out to the south and east. This is really good news for SW KS and into NW OK, where the drought is still very strong.

We should see storms develop this evening into Wednesday morning and attempt to make it into OK, they may die out before reaching the main body of our state. However, we should see redevelopment Wednesday night into Thursday, which will have a better chance at affecting C OK.

After that we head into this weekend and early next week, we may get in a sweet-spot for an active NW flow with additional waves of rain and thunderstorms developing across the panhandles and SW KS that continue to send waves of storms across OK.


TL;DR - NW and N OK have the best chances for heavy rainfall over the next 2-4 days. Rest of state gets leftovers. Then for weekend and beyond we may all get in on heavier action.

Small chance of a storm or two developing tonight, nothing major expected.

Friday night into Saturday there will be a solid chance @ a storm complex coming from SW KS/NW OK and tracking east across the state. Best chances are northern OK, but C OK could get involved. SPC has outlined a Slight risk for NW OK and Marginal for C and N OK.

Saturday afternoon into evening there is a Slight risk for C and NE OK as storms are expected to develop near I-44 corridor. The severity and location of these storms will depend greatly on the Friday overnight convection effects.

Heading into next week we will see temperatures begin creeping back up into the mid 90s, but there is some chances of additional rain in the long-range forecast right now. Possible some severe weather around Tuesday into Wednesday.

Storms are increasing in intensity across NW OK, These are riding down with the northwest flow out of SW KS. These storms will likely pass just west of OKC area before dying out later this afternoon. Still could see some impact in the mtro, though. This corridor will be the focus of more storms overnight tonight into early Saturday AM.

SPC has upgraded severe risk to Enhanced for NW, W, and C OK for overnight tonight. Models are showing a fast moving line of severe storms coming out of the panhandle region and racing to the southeast. Damaging wind threat will be very high with this complex.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2018062212/nam3km_ref_frzn_scus_16.png

Is channel 5 getting worse and worse with their "hype" or is it just me. They used to be my favorite station but hear lately they just seem to really go crazy with stuff. Especially their headlines or teases. Then when you actually watch it's not as hyped.

Storms are expanding in the panhandles right now. These will eventually turn into a large complex and go east. Impacts into C OK are roughly around 12-1am.

Short-range models suggest redevelopment behind the initial line somewhere across C or N OK leading to flash flooding into Saturday morning.

Is channel 5 getting worse and worse with their "hype" or is it just me.
I hope not. They are my favorite!

The line of storms is picking up speed. Could see them in OKC by 11-midnight.

Severe storm watch out for th SW 1/3 of OK. Including OKC.

Storms are struggling to develop right now. But if they can break the cap closer to sunset, they will be severe. Hail and wind main threats. Can’t rule out a quick tornado. Hail could be large with any isolated cells with rotation.

It seems I recall early last spring David Payne/channel 9 forecasting a severe drought for this summer after reviewing dry past weather patterns with what he considered a repeat of drought possibilities. I'm wondering, since we're getting decent rains in late June, if a predicted drought is still possible.

It seems I recall early last spring David Payne/channel 9 forecasting a severe drought for this summer after reviewing dry past weather patterns with what he considered a repeat of drought possibilities. I'm wondering, since we're getting decent rains in late June, if a predicted drought is still possible.

Drought can form quickly with a pattern shift, especially in areas recovering from an existing drought like central and western OK. These rains help but the state will need some atypical July and August rains to really keep the drought at bay.

The summer of 2000 had a very wet June with ample rainfall continuing into early July, but then the rains stopped and it was bone dry until late September. August that year had no rainfall at all. Early September had temps near 110 degrees that year.

The summer of 2000 had a very wet June with ample rainfall continuing into early July, but then the rains stopped and it was bone dry until late September. August that year had no rainfall at all. Early September had temps near 110 degrees that year.

I remember there was unseasonably cool weather into early June as well that year, like lows in the 40's which was really strange. And I remember those early season OU games in 2000 were brutally hot but there was a nice cool down in October.

Don't be looking to CO to supply the rainy waves you've been getting the last few days. They are telling us in Denver hot and dry statewide until possibly this next weekend. Temps approaching 100 here in Denver

Dangerous heat over the next several days. Low to mid 90s with high humidity. Potential relief coming over the weekend with some slight rain chances. The holiday week looks very hot with maybe a shot @ severe weather for the 4th.

I've noticed the latest couple GFS runs have showed some unsettled weather over OK at the end of the week. Hopefully that will help to lower temps.

This includes Oklahoma City:

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 248 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS
OK
OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALFALFA BLAINE CANADIAN
CLEVELAND CREEK GARFIELD
GRANT KAY KINGFISHER
LINCOLN LOGAN MAJOR
MCCLAIN NOBLE OKLAHOMA
OSAGE PAWNEE PAYNE
POTTAWATOMIE WOODS

https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/png/oun.png

http://climate.cod.edu/data/satellite/1km/Oklahoma/current/Oklahoma.rad.gif

Far NW OKC and N Edmond have gotten a BUNCH of rain this morning. Clearing line looks to be making its way in but got another big soaking.