Starting May thread early to avoid discussion of the early month storm potential being in two different places.

As I mentioned in the April thread, this weekend is going to be fantastic weather-wise. Probably one of the best of the season. 70s and 80s with light winds.


SPC has outlined risks for at least three future days in Oklahoma. The first two days being Monday and Tuesday with 15% chance of severe storms mainly out in western and northwestern OK. Wednesday they have outlined a 30% risk that covers essentially the northwestern half of OK, with 15% in the remaining.

What this means: Usually when SPC is outlaying risks this far ahead, the potential for abnormally severe weather is high. These days usually lead to at least moderate risk outlines in the 3-day SPC outlook, and sometimes are upgraded to high risk outlines somewhere in the same outlook window.

As we are obviously many days out from the event(s) - accurately predicting storm mode is difficult. But as of right now storms look to be supercell in nature developing off of a dryline. Just stay tuned into the local weather sources in the next 3-5 days.

Anon, help me with something. I surely get the general setup for this week, but one thing that puzzles me a bit is that usually the biggest area of focus is closer to the triple point near the low, which is well north into Kansas. But they seem in the discussion to be focusing more on NW/NC OK for the threat area of concern into day 5 (Weds). Is something mitigating the KS threat some, despite that 30% region?

I am not sure what you're asking, but SPC has made updates since you posted a couple days ago obviously. But right now we have slight risks for western OK today and tomorrow with Wednesday being the larger area of risk with the storm ejecting. Currently 30% probability with NW OK being hashed for significance.

NAM has supercells developing along the dryline late Wednesday and moving into central parts of the state overnight.

Anon, the hatched area in NW OK essentially what I missed or was newly added. That addresses what I clumsily tried to ask before. That hatched region is much closer to the triple point, which is where I would have expected the 30% region to be focused (rather than as broadly as it is now).

Yea the SPC is very keen on updates! Day 2 slight risk has now been mostly removed from OK in the latest update.

Do you think the local TV meteorologists are overhyping this? I guess since it's the first event of the season they are trying to get people into that severe weather mindset but I'm not thinking that Wednesday will be particularly high-end. There will probably be a few tornadoes in the state but it isn't going to be one of those classic PDS-type days. Am I wrong?

Do you think the local TV meteorologists are overhyping this? I guess since it's the first event of the season they are trying to get people into that severe weather mindset but I'm not thinking that Wednesday will be particularly high-end. There will probably be a few tornadoes in the state but it isn't going to be one of those classic PDS-type days. Am I wrong?

I haven't been particularly watching the TV meteorologists much, but I'm personally of the opinion that if there is a chance for tornadoes and severe weather they should ensure the public is made aware of it. It just takes one tornado to ruin someone's day; it doesn't have to be a "classic PDS-type" day for storms to have an impact.

SPC maintaining generally same risk areas. There is uncertainty building across the dryline area of storm formation and timing. Development looks like very likely across C KS and W TX. While remains more questionable in the middle east of the OK/TX border.

In the current forecast, I would say it could likely be an event that is non-widespread and we could just have 1 or 2 areas of very localized impacts.

Here is a couple snapshots of various shorter-range models showing development:

WRF showing linear development near the OK/KS border with more discrete-in-nature development across W/SW OK.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/wrf-arw2/2018050100/wrf-arw2_ref_frzn_scus_48.png


NAM showing development in KS and down into W TX, but gapping all of OK until late overnight when some development occurs in W OK and moves NE.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2018050106/namconus_ref_frzn_scus_38.png

Thank you, those graphics bring a sense of relief... better than the gloom and doom that the weather channel and the Storm prediction center have painted over the region. I’m still a nervous wreck though, my work productivity is suffering quite a bit.

Do you think the local TV meteorologists are overhyping this? I guess since it's the first event of the season they are trying to get people into that severe weather mindset but I'm not thinking that Wednesday will be particularly high-end. There will probably be a few tornadoes in the state but it isn't going to be one of those classic PDS-type days. Am I wrong?

David Payne is anything but hype these days, generally. He livestreams nearly every day on facebook at around 11 am.

David Payne is anything but hype these days, generally. He livestreams nearly every day on facebook at around 11 am.
Yeah for those of us who remember, he's ratcheted it down quite a bit.

The entirety of this forecast, however, is pulling me back to my question from earlier in the week: Why was there so much emphasis beyond the area immediately near the triple point? This setup has favored stronger weather in KS for some time now, but SPC pushed out the 30% region early in the game. The region itself wasn't so much the problem as was its *size*. And now it seems to be unfolding that, sure enough, we could have strong storms here, the better potential is where it's always been. I think SPC could have kept a lot more of OK in a slight risk zone and accomplished the same level of warning. Even their forecast discussions implied their expansion of the enhanced risk was more discretionary. They added an odd hatched region later - near the triple point - which probably should have been the 30% or enhanced region to begin with IMHO...

And I've also noticed a distinct trend among all local TV to move the hype away from the weather guy and toward the news folks. Every station was doing a "clean out your shelters" type of story this morning. I actually heard one story where the reporter actually said, "If you hear sirens, go to a shelter." Seriously?

Thank you, those graphics bring a sense of relief... better than the gloom and doom that the weather channel and the Storm prediction center have painted over the region. I’m still a nervous wreck though, my work productivity is suffering quite a bit.

I think the SPC got a little aggressive on this one. Yes, it's a bit complicated, lots of moving parts, but they did get a bit edgy on this one for whatever reason.

HRRR model becoming more bullish for storm development for this afternoon across NW OK. I am sure everyone up there is welcome to any potential rain. Main severe threat in this part of the state will be hail as supercell structure is the likely mode. Movement of storms will be off to the NE toward KS.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2018050114/hrrr_ref_frzn_scus_10.png

Queston: is Wednesday setting up for an overnight event in Central OK?

Queston: is Wednesday setting up for an overnight event in Central OK?

Sure seems like that's the emerging wisdom. Lots can change though...

Is this going to be another mother nature fake out? Because the west half of the state being as dry as it is, I don't think it can take another one?

Tornado watch coming for C and SW KS soon with an upgrade to moderate from SPC to the area.


For tomorrow, the enhanced risk has been trimmed down across SW OK, and remains for most of WC , NW, and C OK. The hatched significant severe zone has been expanded to include essentially the NW 1/2 of OK with inclusion of OKC metro. Emphasizing hail size with cells that are able to develop.

I actually heard one story where the reporter actually said, "If you hear sirens, go to a shelter." Seriously?

Keep in mind that this is because the City of Oklahoma City recently (last year, if I remember right) changed their siren activation policy; previously, all sirens in Oklahoma City would sound if a tornado warning impacted any part of the city. Now, only the sirens in the area covered by the warning will sound. As a result, it's much, much more important to take shelter if you hear sirens now, because you're only going to hear them if you're in immediate danger.

Keep in mind that this is because the City of Oklahoma City recently (last year, if I remember right) changed their siren activation policy; previously, all sirens in Oklahoma City would sound if a tornado warning impacted any part of the city. Now, only the sirens in the area covered by the warning will sound. As a result, it's much, much more important to take shelter if you hear sirens now, because you're only going to hear them if you're in immediate danger.

I'd love to think that was the motivation for the story, but the broader presentation of the story didn't imply nearly that much sophistication.

Norman Weather Center now has central OK in slight risk as of their 4:20AM hazardous discussion. Reads as if western OK gets the nasty afternoon storms then we get overnight with wind gusts the main threat.

Some big time tornadoes yesterday in central KS, monster storms. Luckily very rural areas in and around those parts.


So far for Oklahoma we have slight risk across large area of state and enhanced up in NW OK just like yesterday. However, the tornado chance parameters have been increased in the area with a focus across the above mentioned enhanced risk zone. I will post in a few hours after some fresh data, and get some graphics posted for what we can expect for this afternoon. Some of these high clouds will likely burn off as we head toward afternoon and that will become a player in destabilization across the region.

Some big time tornadoes yesterday in central KS, monster storms. Luckily very rural areas in and around those parts.


So far for Oklahoma we have slight risk across large area of state and enhanced up in NW OK just like yesterday. However, the tornado chance parameters have been increased in the area with a focus across the above mentioned enhanced risk zone. I will post in a few hours after some fresh data, and get some graphics posted for what we can expect for this afternoon. Some of these high clouds will likely burn off as we head toward afternoon and that will become a player in destabilization across the region.

I doubt the way things are trending if OKC metro area will even see storms later this evening or overnight. Looks like all the action will be up north along the OK/KS border and down south into Texas for the overnight.

I think we could see an upgrade to the risk across W and C OK for this afternoon. Atmosphere conditions are priming for an active evening across the state. Right now we have dewpoint temperatures in the upper 60s across the entire body of the state with clearing occurring along and ahead of the dryline.

Short-range models are coming around to producing multiple storms around 4pm along and just east of the TX/OK border. Storms will post an immediate hail threat as updrafts will be very high. Storms will likely merge and become clustes with embedded supercell structures. We could see 3-4 dominant cells/clusters carrying very large hail threats and tornado potentials as the storms move off the dryline and race northeast. After the early evening storms blow through, we will have another round late overnight that develops down in far western TX and rushes across the state. These will be a rain and wind threat, maybe small hail. The main show is the early evening stuff.


Snapshot of HRRR showing development occurring between 4-5pm:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2018050214/hrrr_ref_frzn_scus_8.png

Current dewpoints (this map will continue to update):
https://www.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/realtime/current.TDEW.grad.png?1525274247138

Starting to see more sun peeking through the clouds here in Moore. The dry line is way farther west than I would have expected it to be with the ongoing drought conditions. we will see how far east the storms that fire off it make it before the cap starts to strengthen after sunset this evening if they can sustain themselves long enough to make it to central Oklahoma to give us some action.

As I expected. SPC has upgraded NW OK to Moderate with Enhanced being expanded across all of the western half of OK, including the OKC metro.

I want to point out the significance of this due to what we saw yesterday leading up to the central KS storms, is occurring again like clockwork across OK. Major destabilization ahead of a sharp dryline is becoming a very strong possibility.

10% hatched tornado parameters are expanded across essentially the western 1/2 of OK.

Storm trackers I follow are targeting west central OK.

The show has started in KS. TOR watch issued for all of central KS with High parameters in every category except strong tornadoes, which is listed as Moderate (still significant). I think the large watch that is coming for the western half of OK will be very similar.



https://i.imgur.com/bM0eFXR.png

I have circled two areas of focus above:
•The area likely for development along the dryline first is here in the red. These will be supercell storms intially, but could merge into smaller clusters with embedded supercells. Still a a good tornado threat with these, but non-discreet cells will have a tougher time going full tornado.
•The blue area I have circled is an area of later development (think towards 4-5pm window) where storms will develop just ahead and right along the dryline as it bows eastward, especially along the southern fringe. These storms have a better wind shear environment for becoming more discreet in nature, thus posing a greater large hail and tornado threat.

Can we get an approximate timeline on round 1 for the OKC metro?

Just as I posted my previous post, the tornado watch was issued for OK. It includes western sides of OKC metro all the way back to the border. High parameters in every category except winds (so yes High parameter on strong tornadoes). Think of this watch as just about as strong of a regular watch you can have without it being PDS.

https://i.imgur.com/njZguce.png

The show has started in KS. TOR watch issued for all of central KS with High parameters in every category except strong tornadoes, which is listed as Moderate (still significant). I think the large watch that is coming for the western half of OK will be very similar.



https://i.imgur.com/bM0eFXR.png

I have circled two areas of focus above:
•The area likely for development along the dryline first is here in the red. These will be supercell storms intially, but could merge into smaller clusters with embedded supercells. Still a a good tornado threat with these, but non-discreet cells will have a tougher time going full tornado.
•The blue area I have circled is an area of later development (think towards 4-5pm window) where storms will develop just ahead and right along the dryline as it bows eastward, especially along the southern fringe. These storms have a better wind shear environment for becoming more discreet in nature, thus posing a greater large hail and tornado threat.

Is it me or can anyone else not see the artwork of Anonymous?

I can't from my work PC that is behind a firewall I can from my phone though.

Looks like they are hosted on Imgur, so it probably just depends on firewall settings if you are on a work network.

Can we get an approximate timeline on round 1 for the OKC metro?

I would say 8-9pm timeframe is a good bet, but it will vary slightly on individual storm speed and/or if a line develops and it accelerates ahead.

Ah yes, sorry I have the images hosted on imgur - I did not realize some places block that. If someone has another alternative that is just as easy, feel free to post about it.

I would say 8-9pm timeframe is a good bet, but it will vary slightly on individual storm speed and/or if a line develops and it accelerates ahead.

Thank you! I wanted to make sure it wouldn't be during our family's afternoon drive time.

You're such a valuable resource to the OKCTalk community. We appreciate you!

We are in the chat room now talking about the storms. http://www.wxstuff.com/index.php?r=dashboard%2Fdashboard

You're welcome, turnpup. I enjoy giving others information that is helpful when so many here have anxiety about this time of year.


Reydon/Sweetwater area in extreme W OK will likely be first major storms for W OK.

Hollis/Gould area down in extreme SW OK will be likely first big action spot this afternoon for SW OK.

You're welcome, turnpup. I enjoy giving others information that is helpful when so many here have anxiety about this time of year.

Just wanted to say before we head into the heart of the storm season..you've been a big part of my yearly storm season routine since 2013 or so. Thanks for all that you do, appreciate it!

Latest HRRR is ugly for a large part of state. Broken groups of supercells approaching C OK around 8pm. Massive hail and tornado threat accompanying.

Latest HRRR is ugly for a large part of state. Broken groups of supercells approaching C OK around 8pm. Massive hail and tornado threat accompanying.

What's keeping the SPC from pushing the moderate risk further south and east? Storm coverage in central oklahoma after 7?

New MD out on the situation:




http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0317.gif
Mesoscale Discussion 0317
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0324 PM CDT Wed May 02 2018

Areas affected...Eastern TX/OK Panhandles and northwest TX into
western OK

Concerning...Tornado Watch 62...

Valid 022024Z - 022300Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 62 continues.

SUMMARY...Very large hail and an increasing threat for storms to
become tornadic exists across the eastern Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles
into northwest Texas and western Oklahoma into the early evening.

DISCUSSION...Mid-afternoon mosaic radar imagery indicated ongoing
discrete storm development near and east of a dryline which extended
south through far eastern TX Panhandle from an area of low pressure
in far northwest OK. These storms will continue to track to the
east-northeast into western OK this afternoon, with additional storm
development likely in northwest TX in the southwest part of WW 62.
The CAPE/shear parameter space east of the dryline has become very
conducive for storms to mature into supercells with the potential
for tornadoes and very large hail. Special NSSL sounding at Elk
City, OK at 1827Z indicated very strong instability (surface-based
CAPE of 4000 J/kg and midlevel lapse rates near 8 C/km). In
addition to strong effective bulk shear expected to remain oriented
across the initiating boundary for discrete storms, the NSSL
sounding showed effective inflow shear of 28 kt, with low-level
hodograph curvature to support rotating updrafts.

..Peters.. 05/02/2018

It's just paranoid hype to me until an actual tornado warning is issued for my county and then they might as well seriously hype all they can.

What's keeping the SPC from pushing the moderate risk further south and east? Storm coverage in central oklahoma after 7?

Nothing. They added wording to the last update saying that they were only expanding the risks and not upgrading probabilities. But again, that was for the update late this morning. Things are playing out where long-tracked discreet supercells are becoming favorable over a large area.

It's just silly paranoid hype to me until an actual tornado warning is issued for my county and then they might as well seriously hype all they can.

I am not sure who/what you are referencing here, but in case you are talking about the updates here - I am only posting the information I get from the data and current radar trends. There is no money to be made here.

You are certainly welcome to wait for your county to be in a warning before taking any actions, that is up to you. But some people want the information for planning and have family/friends in other locations. It isn't always about your own backyard.

Latest SPC Outlook further expands Enhanced risk south and east, covering more of C and S OK. No upgrades to risks categories.

The huge storm north of Elk City, OK is starting to get that look. If it can absorb the cell coming up south of it with no interruption, we could be looking at the first major cell turning right.

Next cell south of that is smaller in size for now, but is moving into favorable airspace near Granite, OK.

The cells have done a good job consolidating/ separating themselves in the last 30 minutes.

The cells have done a good job consolidating/ separating themselves in the last 30 minutes.

Yep the shear environment right now is really good for discreet cells to become dominant. (worst case scenario)

Also want to mention there are storms coming up from NW TX that are maturing as they prepare to enter SW OK near the Altus area.

I am not sure who/what you are referencing here, but in case you are talking about the updates here - I am only posting the information I get from the data and current radar trends. There is no money to be made here.

You are certainly welcome to wait for your county to be in a warning before taking any actions, that is up to you. But some people want the information for planning and have family/friends in other locations. It isn't always about your own backyard.
I don't know of a single relative or friend in western Oklahoma. I'm referring to the hype from the TV weathermen. If the hype passes with no severe storm in their area, then they're not helping their credibility and may do more harm than good. Reports and commentary here tend to be more interesting and informative than sensational. Thanks.

I am not sure who/what you are referencing here, but in case you are talking about the updates here - I am only posting the information I get from the data and current radar trends. There is no money to be made here.

You are certainly welcome to wait for your county to be in a warning before taking any actions, that is up to you. But some people want the information for planning and have family/friends in other locations. It isn't always about your own backyard.

I think/hope Bunty was referring to the fact that the local stations have moved into full-on 24/7 this is an active emergency coverage. There is absolutely a strong possibility of some serious stuff later on, and people do indeed need to be informed. If they choose not to act, that is on them. The other side of the coin here is when the local stations go into full on 24/7 active emergency coverage and nothing happens, then (as demonstrated) people get exhausted of it and stop listening. As has been discussed in the past, a careful balance needs to be found, but that's not what the news around here is looking for.

The idea that there should be no coverage until a tornado is actually on the ground is the exact opposite of what (real) meteorologists have been working towards for years, and I doubt anyone REALLY believes there shouldn't be advance knowledge, it's just a reaction due to the boy who cried wolf mentality of our local teevee folks.

As for me, I find your information useful, and it is one of several sources of information I've been keeping an eye on today. Based on that, my personal opinion is Mike and David need to take some Xanax, but only a small dose. Calm down, dial it back from 11, but still stay alert.

Granite storm I mentioned 45 minutes ago now TOR warned. This will be moving towards Hobart.

The cell north of Elk City got obliterated by the one that moved into it. Look for consolidation more to the north east as it recovers.

I recommend joining into Venture's chat @ http://www.wxstuff.com/index.php?r=custom_pages%2Fview&id=10

I will be joining there later after 5pm. So there won't be a bunch of small annoying updates in here, only more broad updates.

Main focus shifting toward cells coming up from SW OK as we head toward 5pm hour. Including the area between Altus/Lawton.

Tornado watch in yellow until 10pm:

https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/png/oun.png
https://stillwaterweather.com/images/warnadv.png

David Payne has been pretty annoying today. They’ll have their helicopter in position with these beautiful shots and as soon as something starts looking interesting, they switch to their new radar. I would rather see these storms than watch him fumble around with all the radar options he has...

Not liking the looks of this storm so far.

Woof. Putting out tornadoes all around Altus right now and heading towards the OKC metro at full tilt. For my sake I hope it will have lost some steam by the time it reaches Sapulpa. These storms aren't so fun when you live in an old house built over a crawl space and no storm shelter. I often think a big enough wind by itself could blow my house over from the way it shakes. I don't have any chance of surviving a real tornado here.

I think the risk of Tornado for OKC are pretty slim to none at the moment. When I made my previous post the "hook" was starting to develop but I don't see the same pattern at the moment at least. Be safe out there!

Storms coming into OKC are weakening and lining out a bit. The cells fought with each other the whole way here so tornado threat is low.

We could have strong winds as the previously high updrafts begin collapsing.

Flash flooding is likely for the entire OKC metro.

Apendage north of Chickasha, nearly stationary is concerning. Heading toward Amber/Bridgecreek.