Tornado on the ground there with brief spinups.

These little apendages could continue and keep occurring along this line. Small tornadoes you cannot see.

South metro and toward Norman need to stay alert. Basically a supercell is embedded into this line trying to get going. With darkness and precipitation everywhere, it will likely be impossible to see. If you have sirens take precaution.

Sounds like more Tornadoes dropping down west of Norman. Just when you think it won't be too bad... it figures out how to spin something up.

Just the classic messy line with apendages after dark hitting Newcastle/Moore/Norman. It is really astounding how this always happens.

Meanwhile all of the metro will be flooding in the next couple hours. Tons of rain.

Will there be a second round of rain later tonight still?

Yes. A second line of rain and storms could/will move through early morning hours. Models are all over the place with intensity and location. But my guess is mostly a southern OK event.

Not bad for a 24 hour drink.


https://www.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/realtime/rainrfc.24hr.png

Some really intense lightning during our morning drive!

Just the classic messy line with apendages after dark hitting Newcastle/Moore/Norman. It is really astounding how this always happens.

Meanwhile all of the metro will be flooding in the next couple hours. Tons of rain.

I guess that's the evening strengthening of the low level jet taking effect.

Yes, the LLJ timing was pretty significant. But I was more referring to how that same corridor seems to always be under the tornado gun. It is one of the oddest details of central OK.

I was switching between 4, 5 and 9 last night. I have come to really appreciate the gray maps 5 and 9 use for their radar displays...very clear images. Channel 4 however is a mess. It looks like a paint factory exploded on their display. Too many colors, too many graphics...too much everything. Not neat and easy to look at.

Do we have anything setting up for this evening?

I am new to the weather discussion thread and will be joining in for the next event. I appreciate everyone's input in all the different locations and Anonymous, do you have a crystal ball or something? Awesome Anonymous. You should rename yourself. :)

Do we have anything setting up for this evening?

Mostly extreme SE OK will have a chance for storms later, wind and rain threat is main concern there.



I am new to the weather discussion thread and will be joining in for the next event. I appreciate everyone's input in all the different locations and Anonymous, do you have a crystal ball or something? Awesome Anonymous. You should rename yourself. :)

Welcome! No ball, but I have been a weather nerd my entire life and find it fascinating. So if passing that experience and information on to others is helpful, I am happy to do it!

Some day if my life ever permits I would like to go back to chasing the storms. But today with social media and technology, chasing has become a complete zoo and poses a huge hassle and safety risk to all chasers involved. So for now the comfort behind computer screens will do. :)

Things will probably be relatively quiet for the next week or two. There are signs the second half of May could be more active.

Thanks, Anon!

So very glad we avoided the hail yesterday. We're already doing a roofing project, so that wasn't my concern. I was worried about our plants and trees getting hammered. They (finally) look pretty and I didn't want them to be ruined.

Yes the hail threat really came down once the storms began bumping and merging into each other. For big hail you need really tall, discreet cells.

Did the sun not heating up the atmosphere help with there not being a big tornado? I heard it causes more instability? It was cloudy the whole time, and where I live, there was lots of cloud to cloud lightening.

Did the sun not heating up the atmosphere help with there not being a big tornado? I heard it causes more instability? It was cloudy the whole time, and where I live, there was lots of cloud to cloud lightening.

There was plenty of instability yesterday. The storms yesterday were monsters. The wind profiles just weren't right for numerous tornadoes. The details have to be perfect.

Rode out the storms in north Norman. Circulation spun up directly over our house along that line and dropped a preliminary EF-1 tornado just a couple miles ENE of us (36th and Tecumseh). Damage survey ongoing.

Well it looks like severe weather season is over. I don't see anything in the forecast as to even rain. Glad I don't have to wait to June 1st to breathe a sigh of relief.

Well it looks like severe weather season is over. I don't see anything in the forecast as to even rain. Glad I don't have to wait to June 1st to breathe a sigh of relief.

Are you sure you were looking for Oklahoma?

Well it looks like severe weather season is over. I don't see anything in the forecast as to even rain. Glad I don't have to wait to June 1st to breathe a sigh of relief.

Are you new to Oklahoma?

We are just getting started...

Well it looks like severe weather season is over. I don't see anything in the forecast as to even rain. Glad I don't have to wait to June 1st to breathe a sigh of relief.

What's so special about June 1? I've had to pull my mattress off my bed before and cover myself with it in the hall on a June 15. The dreaded roar of the tornado soon passed over, but wasn't in the direct path of the tornado, so little damage to the house. However, it uprooted a 50 ft. cottonwood tree and spread it across the backyard, fortunately not on the house.

Well it looks like severe weather season is over. I don't see anything in the forecast as to even rain. Glad I don't have to wait to June 1st to breathe a sigh of relief.

Correct. Nothing has ever happened on may 20 or may 31st and certainly not in the same year

Well it looks like severe weather season is over. I don't see anything in the forecast as to even rain. Glad I don't have to wait to June 1st to breathe a sigh of relief.

I guess you've only lived here for, what, maybe 20 minutes?

It's not over until high pressure establishes over Oklahoma.

Besides the storms in the forecast for next weekend, there are signs of activity picking up the week of May 15th.

Maybe we should give Ian some data to look at about Oklahoma weather instead of making him feel bad.

https://www.weather.gov/oun/tornadodata-ok-monthlyannual

There. Isn't that better? :)

It's not over until high pressure establishes over Oklahoma.

Besides the storms in the forecast for next weekend, there are signs of activity picking up the week of May 15th.

I would say it's more along the lines of whenever the jet stream moves north, placing Oklahoma into a NW flow pattern. That typically happens in early June (hence the reason storm season comes to an abrupt halt most years once June arrives) but can happen earlier or later some years.

The second half of May can be brutal. 2013 was a relatively quiet year up until the third week of May. That year shared a lot in common with this year. It was a spring after a La Nina. Drought dominated the western half of the state. Arctic fronts had continued to rush south prolonging winter unusually late in the year, much like this year. I'm hoping this isn't a year like 2013 tornado wise but so far, the pattern this year shares a lot in common with that year.

Maybe we should give Ian some data to look at about Oklahoma weather instead of making him feel bad.

https://www.weather.gov/oun/tornadodata-ok-monthlyannual

There. Isn't that better? :)

My intention isn't to make anybody feel bad, I am 100% legit curious where the information came from that led him to conclude there isn't even a sign of so much as rain between now and June 1st. My only possible conclusion is it wasn't an Oklahoma forecast, as pointed out there are multiple opportunities already in just the next two weeks.

If I wanted to make him feel bad I'd ask why he's so happy about no signs of rain when they've only just gotten the fires out in the western half of the state and almost a quarter of the state is in exceptional drought even after the rain. Over half the state is in some level of drought status.

I'm really hoping that we don't have to re-live 2013. It was not a good year for us. Our trees are still compromised from it and still have a pile of limbs and stumps that we weren't able to be rid of shortly after. We worked with a bobcat and dump truck for a few days, cutting and putting at the roadside for city pick-up.
That May 20th, 2013 tornado tried to come down in our area before it started to mean business here in Newcastle. It dipped down right over us but was not at full strength until about 1/2 mile east of us. We had damage to the SW part of our house, our neighbor's trampoline was tossed into a wooded area about 600 feet west of us, we saw debris in the sky above us and was just plain strange. Even if we didn't get the brunt of the main tornado, it was a strange experience. It also happened so quickly. Will never forget me saying to my son, "What are those birds doing flying so high up in the sky? He answered "Those aren't birds, Mom, that is debris". Closed the cellar door promptly. A big limb from the maple tree close by slammed down onto the cellar door. Seeing the videos from different locations on Youtube have really helped me to understand what happened that day. The weather we have in this state is beyond comprehension. I know we were not involved in a full blown tornado, but it was intense. I feel for people who have experienced the power and intensity of a tornado more than me, and lived through it. I tell you, it would not be pleasant at all.

It's quite incredible how we've went from late February to mid-June within the span of a few weeks.

https://newcdn.tribtv.com/kfor/weather/7dayx314.jpg

Let's hope mid-June stays around for the next three or four months.

Let's hope mid-June stays around for the next three or four months.

The whole state might be 1 big flame if that happened.

The whole state might be 1 big flame if that happened.

With all that rain in the forecast shown above?

The whole state might be 1 big flame if that happened.

I would take mid June temps over late July temps for the next 4 months.

Hopefully we will get a little bit more rain before mid June. Things are greening up so it's not all bad on the fire weather front.

With all that rain in the forecast shown above?

When i posted, that picture showed only 3 days of 20% chances. Go figure. Haha

Next solid chances of rain/storms is around mid-week next week. This weekend looks great. Every day will be insanely windy until about Sunday, which will just be regularly windy.

Next solid chances of rain/storms is around mid-week next week. This weekend looks great. Every day will be insanely windy until about Sunday, which will just be regularly windy.

Ha, reminds me of when we lived in the Seattle area and they had high wind warnings and all kinds of problems when the wind was gusting to 30 MPH (trees being blown over, etc.), and we just laughed. They were kinda justified, though, in being spooked because it's usually not so windy there and the trees don't have as deep roots as they do here, apparently.

Also laughed when we lived in the Chicago area and people there were completely miserable when it got up to a scorching and intolerable 85 degrees (of course, I was cold as hell in winter when they were walking around without a jacket).

Anything big on the severe front in the near future? It seems like we've gone from a late winter to a more summer-like pattern very quickly.

I know it is only May 12th at the moment, so I can still eat these words.

This has been one of the worst springs I can remember as far as rain accumulations and nice weather. It was so cold so late this year, and now we're burning up like it's late June. Oh, and the WIND!!! I can't recall a windier spring than we're having this year. Unless things improve, this could be a brutal summer.

I don't see anything on the forecasts for severe weather going into two weeks. I started checking some other forums and it seems as though no chatter long term anything severe there either. I totally hope we are past that bridge for all that. Looks like only a 40 percent chance of rain midweek. I hope nothing comes of that either but Iess than 50 percent is a good thing.

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
1150 AM CDT Sat May 12 2018

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-131700-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Wa****a-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
1150 AM CDT Sat May 12 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western
north Texas.

.DAY ONE...Through Tonight...

.Thunderstorms...
A few strong to perhaps severe thunderstorms may occur between
5 pm and 10 pm today across parts of far western Oklahoma, west
of a Woodward to Hollis line. If storms occur, damaging winds up
to 70 mph would be the main hazard in or near storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday...

.Thunderstorms...
A few strong to severe thunderstorms with large hail and damaging
winds are possible during the afternoon and evening hours Sunday
and Monday across parts of western and northern Oklahoma as well
as far western north Texas.

Thunderstorm chances are expected to increase across all of
Oklahoma and north Texas Tuesday through Thursday. Some storms
Tuesday through Thursday may be strong to severe with damaging
winds as the main hazard.

.Heavy Rainfall and Flash Flooding...
Locally heavy rainfall of 1 to 2 inches in a short period of time
from slow moving thunderstorms may cause flash flooding in a few
locations across Oklahoma and north Texas Sunday through Thursday.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

I know it is only May 12th at the moment, so I can still eat these words.

This has been one of the worst springs I can remember as far as rain accumulations and nice weather. It was so cold so late this year, and now we're burning up like it's late June. Oh, and the WIND!!! I can't recall a windier spring than we're having this year. Unless things improve, this could be a brutal summer.

We've gone from March weather to June weather in about 2-3 weeks, with few signs of turning back. Absolutely brutal, and a very ominous sign for this summer. Even though rainfall has picked up in OKC recently, a good portion of Western OK is still in a severe or exceptional drought.

We should see storms develop across the OK/TX border in western parts of the state today around 5-7pm. Additional clusters/a line of storms will develop across NW OK. Models are pushing these storms off to the east into the night. The movement will likely be random, but generally off to the east. Clusters will form and die out while riding along outflow boundaries. So not everyone is guaranteed rain. Biggest severe threat will be winds with small gust fronts along leading edges and collapsing storm columns rushing air to the surface.

SPC has outlined the risks as Slight. Don't expect any organized severe weather except for the wind threats mentioned above.


Snapshot of sometime after midnight, showing random clusters around the state:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2018051412/hrrr_ref_frzn_scus_18.png

Storms rapidly developing now to the west and north. These will slowly begin filling in across NW OK and ride down on outflow boundaries toward C OK into the night time hours.

Storms developing off of remnant outflow boundaries from last night. Some of these look like they will cluster to the west of C OK and moving into OKC area in the next few hours.

Storms will redevelop again overnight across the area, again randomly and not organized.

Small boundary present on visible satellite that could be a focal point for a few storms this afternoon.

https://i.imgur.com/axdKNtf.png

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
Areas Affected:
Alfalfa - Beckham - Blaine - Caddo - Canadian - Comanche - Cotton - Craig - Custer - Dewey - Garfield - Grady - Grant - Greer - Harmon - Jackson - Kay - Kingfisher - Kiowa - Logan - Major - Noble - Nowata - Osage - Ottawa - Pawnee - Payne - Tillman - Washington - Wa****a
Effective: Sat, 5/19 2:30pm Updated: Sat, 5/19 2:34pm Urgency: Expected
Expires: Sat, 5/19 10:00pm Severity: Severe Certainty: Likely

Details:

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 108 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS
OK
OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALFALFA BECKHAM BLAINE
CADDO CANADIAN COMANCHE
COTTON CRAIG CUSTER
DEWEY GARFIELD GRADY
GRANT GREER HARMON
JACKSON KAY KINGFISHER
KIOWA LOGAN MAJOR
NOBLE NOWATA OSAGE
OTTAWA PAWNEE PAYNE
TILLMAN WASHINGTON WASH ITA

Area covered:
14636

^I'm guessing the forum blanked out the "bad" part of one of the towns?

^I'm guessing the forum blanked out the "bad" part of one of the towns?

I went around the auto censor by writing WA****A with a space in the word, so it would look less ridiculous. I failed to notice Wa****a, though. They're counties, not towns.

Something I find funny about language filters is situations like this where they tend to highlight 'hidden' 'bad' words. Perhapps the funniest example of nanny software run amok is when the word 'breast' is considered 'bad'. The maker of the software/filter tends to backpedal pretty quickly when it is pointed out to them that users uninstalled because they were unable to search for information on 'breast cancer'.

Thanks to overeager 'swear' filters I've even learned a few. Did you know 'bunda' is Portuguese for butt? I learned this playing a farming game with some friends, and we figured out that when setting up trades, we couldn't tell each other we had an aBUNDAnce of a certain item.

Back on topic though, I'm surprised by these storms lately, and the ones forecast for the next couple weeks. I was assured ...TWICE... there wasn't even so much as rain in the forecast until June, and yet I was woken up by thunder last night. Go figure.

I think it was the long-range *severe* outlook that was not showing much on tap. When you get a hot, humid wave like we've had, it doesn't take much to kick up an angry storm, but that's a far cry from the big stuff we normally worry about in May...

Decent rainfall for most of the state over the past weekend. This week will start off really nice (Monday) and end up feeling like summer heading into the weekend.

There is slight rain/storm chances Tues-Thurs, nut nothing organized and it will be random. Eyes turn toward the tropics this weekend which could have an effect on our weather. Otherwise the next shot @ something looking organized severe-weather-wise looks to be around the 30th.

Tropical development is looking likely now for this weekend in the GOM. Depending on the track and strength over the next few days will determine if OK gets any moisture from very far reaching bands. Again, anything that develops will be random and unorganized.

Looking ahead, full-fledged summer is on the doorstep. GFS showing 100F+ days this weekend in western OK and spreading eastward heading into June.

Does full fledged summer mean that severe weather season is finally over? It can’t be over soon enough in my eyes.

Does full fledged summer mean that severe weather season is finally over? It can’t be over soon enough in my eyes.

Thanks to the location, severe weather season is basically never over in Oklahoma. Full fledged summer means hotter than the deepest depths of Hades, but most certainly does not rule out the possibility of a storm, with June of 1995 having had 28 of them.

https://www.weather.gov/oun/tornadodata-ok-monthlyannual

As you can see, while there are plenty of examples where you can pick a very specific month and year combo that didn't see a tornado (this year made the news for how long it took, actually), there is not a single month on the calendar that hasn't seen one.

TL;DR: If you're praying for storm season to end, you're in the wrong state. It's not going to.

Thanks to the location, severe weather season is basically never over in Oklahoma. Full fledged summer means hotter than the deepest depths of Hades, but most certainly does not rule out the possibility of a storm, with June of 1995 having had 28 of them.

https://www.weather.gov/oun/tornadodata-ok-monthlyannual

As you can see, while there are plenty of examples where you can pick a very specific month and year combo that didn't see a tornado (this year made the news for how long it took, actually), there is not a single month on the calendar that hasn't seen one.

TL;DR: If you're praying for storm season to end, you're in the wrong state. It's not going to.

We are in a statistical downward slope now though. Given enough time and data points you can find outliers in every month. As it stands right now, this season will end up one of slowest on record. Had a weird blocking pattern all season long.

It's going to get Hot and Dry for remainder of the Year. Hope I'm Wrong. You have to get the rain when you can because it's always easier to recover from a flood than a Drought.