The drought has a strangle-hold on everything from just west of C OK all the way back into Arizona. On any random day, just check out Mesonet's dewpoint map. You can see what the dryness does to the moisture in the air. Eastern OK is nearly tropical with Western OK a dust storm.

On long-range models there are indications of potential jet stream pattern switching it up a bit heading into May. This would help increase rain/storm chances further west.

Actually you are not far off. Sunshine during the day adds fuel to the atmosphere which can encourage supercell development in the late afternoon/evening. That's why whenever we have a high-end setup, there is always that hope that morning cloud cover will stick around as long as possible.

As for storm season, April has been unusually quiet this year because of lack of moisture combined with the lingering winter.

Basically what's happening is that cold fronts are being shot way down south do to this pattern were in. That strips the gulf of any moisture.

System still on track for this weekend, but looking like lighter amounts the last few runs. Surprising...no one.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2018041912/namconus_apcpn_scus_28.png

What about severe weather? Does that come with the chance of rain? I really hope we don’t have any more severe chances this year. This OK weather stuff really stresses me out.

I gather you don't have a storm shelter.

I gather you don't have a storm shelter.

Not everyone can afford to own a storm shelter. I bet it is a fairly small percentage that has access to a storm shelter in the OKC MSA.

Nice rainfall for a lot of the state over the weekend. We have another solid chance @ some light rain Tuesday into Wednesday this week. Temperature everyday near 70F.

This coming weekend looks like we will FINALLY have a nice weekend in what seems like a month and a half.

Looking long-range. There is a strong storm showing up around May 1-4. I would not be surprised to see SPC put out some severe markers across the plains in the 4-8 outlook in the next few days.

This coming weekend looks like we will FINALLY have a nice weekend in what seems like a month and a half.


Festival of the Arts and the Memorial Marathon coming up! Perfect.

Nice rainfall for a lot of the state over the weekend. We have another solid chance @ some light rain Tuesday into Wednesday this week. Temperature everyday near 70F.

This coming weekend looks like we will FINALLY have a nice weekend in what seems like a month and a half.

Looking long-range. There is a strong storm showing up around May 1-4. I would not be surprised to see SPC put out some severe markers across the plains in the 4-8 outlook in the next few days.

Looks like spring is finally here to stay after the two shots of cold air this week. Here's hoping mother nature doesn't try to make up for lost time on the severe weather front

Looks like spring is finally here to stay after the two shots of cold air this week. Here's hoping mother nature doesn't try to make up for lost time on the severe weather front

Maybe this week, I'll have to turn on my cooling for the first time this year.

So I've heard that if this keeps up, it would be the longest stretch without a tornado in a new year since we started to keep track?

So I've heard that if this keeps up, it would be the longest stretch without a tornado in a new year since we started to keep track?

Yup. Since 1950 anyway. Here's a good resource regarding tornadoes every year since 1950 from the NWS:
https://www.weather.gov/oun/tornadodata-ok-monthlyannual

Another great rain opportunity late tonight into tomorrow morning:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2018042412/nam3km_apcpn_scus_13.png

Looks like an active weather pattern setting up for next week May 1st and 2nd Severe weather likely.

Yep the word outbreak is getting used in very very hushed tones on a couple weather spotter forums. I'll believe it when I see it, it's still so far out.

But! It gave me an excuse to go clean out the cellar a bit ago.

At this point in time I DO NOT see this being an outbreak situation that can change we will have to wait and see as we get closer. Mainly wind and hail with a couple of tornadoes possible at this point in time so it is a low end to upper low end event at this point.

It’s been so quiet chasers are getting antsy! I’ll take the quiet any year!

It’s been so quiet chasers are getting antsy! I’ll take the quiet any year!

At this point, I think they will call any event with > 1 tornado an outbreak. The hype will be high after a slow start.

That said, the SPC long rang outlook has days 6 and 7 outlined so it's something to keep an eye on.

I hope we make it through May without any tornadoes in the state. Screw the storm chasers. Heck I would take the chilly weather we had yesterday all month and I hate cold weather as much as I hate severe weather. I heard the storm season ends at the beginning of June. It will be nice when that date comes around and I won’t have to stress about the severe weather anymore.

04-22-2018, 09:26 PM

Looking long-range. There is a strong storm showing up around May 1-4. I would not be surprised to see SPC put out some severe markers across the plains in the 4-8 outlook in the next few days.


Right on schedule, SPC has outlined 15% risks for Days 6 and 7 focusing on dryline setups in Western OK for multiple days to start off May.

OKC has really lucked out the past few years. Tornado season has been very active and above average statewide but there hasn't been much in the metro area.