I guess you can't edit a thread after so long, so I created new one for these two months. Going to combine since the weather has been a snoozer so far and Feb is short anyways.


This weekend: Temperatures slowly climb this weekend before dropping again Monday into Tuesday. A slight chance of rain/rainsnow mix Monday night into Tuesday, best bet is N and E OK.


Looking long-range: Models have consistently brought a storm into the plains for next weekend (Feb. 10). I wouldn't hold my breath considering this pattern. But one thing to note is the consistency is something to keep watch on. And this brings with it, some abnormally late-season cold arctic air across a large part of the country.

Well the groundhog did predict six more weeks of winter. :)

It looks like we have a potential ice storm on Tuesday. I'm surprised there aren't more people talking about that.

It looks like we have a potential ice storm on Tuesday. I'm surprised there aren't more people talking about that.

Hopefully I can get to the store in time.

It looks like we have a potential ice storm on Tuesday. I'm surprised there aren't more people talking about that.

Because the amounts and impacts look to be minimal right now.

Yes, not an icestorm. More of a freezing drizzle/glazing potential.

Impacts look minimal, mostly a morning drive on Tuesday type deal.


As for the storm this weekend, right on cue it is falling apart in the models and impacts look to be minimal and pushed way further east with moisture.

We should see precip. begin developing in the next few hours Mainly contained to the SE half of the state. Everything will be very light/drizzly.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2018020612/namconus_ref_frzn_scus_10.png

Any opinions on snow this weekend? I would love to see any type of moisture at this point.

Any opinions on snow this weekend? I would love to see any type of moisture at this point.
GFS and NAM show a little bit of rain/something in eastern Oklahoma over the weekend and that’s it. Nothing in central OK.

Oh Mike.

https://i.imgur.com/lmuOKxX.png

Waiting for tonight's runs before any details. But yes basically summed up in the last few posts. Big storm 6-10 days out, that turns into basically nothing for the plains. This has been the same trend the entire winter.

Currently about 8 days out there is shown a massive storm across the state bringing heavy precipitation. This, too, will likely fizzle into a nothing forecast in a few days. The drought has a strangle-hold on NM/TX/OK. The entire Texas panhandle is a matchstick.

Waiting for tonight's runs before any details. But yes basically summed up in the last few posts. Big storm 6-10 days out, that turns into basically nothing for the plains. This has been the same trend the entire winter.

Currently about 8 days out there is shown a massive storm across the state bringing heavy precipitation. This, too, will likely fizzle into a nothing forecast in a few days. The drought has a strangle-hold on NM/TX/OK. The entire Texas panhandle is a matchstick.

Friends in Santa Fe say it's dry as a bone.........

Situation is turning pretty bad here. Really would like some rain!
https://i.imgur.com/DCrujCP.jpg

Okay, was planning an afternoon down-and-back to the Dallas area on Saturday, but I really don't want to find myself on a slip-n-slide. Is the ice tomorrow something I should really be concerned about?

Models are basically all agreeing that this will be a non-event for most of OK. It will be very similar to the last system. Possible spotty freezing drizzle and sleet anywhere over the eastern half of OK. Your best shot being in extreme E OK. Brief moderate snow in a couple counties in the panhandle.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2018020912/namconus_ref_frzn_scus_37.png

D3 ("Extreme") drought now covering 37.76% of Oklahoma, up from 21.11% last week. Today will be the 119th day with zero precipitation in Amarillo, with a similar statistic in Woodward. The last 90 days are the second driest on record statewide and the driest on record for the Panhandle, north-central, and west-central Oklahoma.

Not a good situation heading into Spring at all. Hopefully we can turn it around, but these patterns have a way of reinforcing themselves...

http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/data/png/20180206/20180206_OK_text.png

http://climate.ok.gov/data/public/mesonet/maps/daily/drought/last90dayspct.png

Not a good situation heading into Spring at all. Hopefully we can turn it around, but these patterns have a way of reinforcing themselves...


On the bright side maybe we will have a quieter severe season this year.

In terms of drought relief, I remember 2014 was pretty dry going into spring but we had some nice NW flow MCS systems that summer.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY

Areas Affected:
Cleveland - Hughes - Lincoln - Logan - McClain - Noble - Oklahoma - Payne - Pottawatomie - Seminole
Effective: Sat, 2/10 12:00am Updated: Fri, 2/9 8:50pm Urgency: Expected
Expires: Sat, 2/10 12:00pm Severity: Minor Certainty: Likely

Details:

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
NOON CST SATURDAY...
* WHAT...Patchy freezing drizzle. A thin glaze of ice may
accumulate in some areas to cause hazardous travel conditions.
* WHERE...Portions of central and north central Oklahoma.
* WHEN...From midnight tonight to noon CST Saturday.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Be especially careful on bridges and
overpasses.

Information:

Be prepared for slippery roads and use caution while driving. The
latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be
obtained by calling 5 1 1.

Counties covered:

https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/png/oun.png

D3 ("Extreme") drought now covering 37.76% of Oklahoma, up from 21.11% last week. Today will be the 119th day with zero precipitation in Amarillo, with a similar statistic in Woodward. The last 90 days are the second driest on record statewide and the driest on record for the Panhandle, north-central, and west-central Oklahoma.

Not a good situation heading into Spring at all. Hopefully we can turn it around, but these patterns have a way of reinforcing themselves...

http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/data/png/20180206/20180206_OK_text.png

http://climate.ok.gov/data/public/mesonet/maps/daily/drought/last90dayspct.png

Hopefully, with La Nina going away, this spring will bring some drought relief.

Unfortunately, with global warming this is probably the new norm. The last long drought was only about 2 or 3 years ago.

Unfortunately, with global warming this is probably the new norm. The last long drought was only about 2 or 3 years ago.[/QUOTE]

You lost credibility with me!

You lost credibility with me!
lulz (if serious)

You lost credibility with me!

That's fine. Even if you don't believe humans are causing it, there is little doubt the Earth on average is slightly warmer ever year. That's going to affect the weather.

https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/global-temperature/

You lost credibility with me!

A major metro area could burn down during an extreme drought, such as one of them in California, and skeptics still wouldn't blame it on global warming or climate change. Or that there is any need to do something about it.

There have always been droughts and wildfires in the west. Ref: the dustbowl (obviously exacerbated by poor farming techniques ) and many prior to that. What is changing is the number of humans living in the drought/flood-prone areas. Species of plants and animals have evolved for centuries around these weather events. Ref: pines that require fire for cones to open abd spread seeds. Of course, we are in a warming pattern so we need to prepare for possible changes to the frequency of droughts and flood periods. The wildfires in LA were the result of the excessive rainfall of last summer and fall and the lush growth of brush as a result - again, nothing unusual -but that there are now millions of people living in the area.

Extreme fire danger today with highs near records.

The big storm system has once again evaporated for the majority of the state. Friday we may see some light to moderate rain bands develop from SW OK to E OK. The cut-off line will be sharp to the north and may cut the OKC metro in half. Temperatures will plummet into the upper 30s with the rain and no serious winter precipitation is expected.

Temps rebound Saturday and Sunday near 60. And creep back towards 70s for Monday before falling again Tuesday into Wednesday. Models are having a tough time trying to add moisture to this next temperature swing, but it will likely be like the last 4 months and go to the dry-side.

This state is going to go up in flames this spring with the strong south winds unless we get some moisture.

Since winter officially began, majority of the state is either the driest ever in [recordable] history, or is close to it. The only areas not close are in eastern and southeastern OK, where it is still abnormally dry.

https://i.imgur.com/oGYhHpc.jpg

Burn ban has been declared.

Models have began shifting the rain corridor further north the last few runs. Let's hope it holds true because that would be a fantastic drink across the middle of the state:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2018021612/namconus_apcpn_scus_8.png

Does any of the models say anything about freezing rain or ice?

The one weekend I don’t want it to rain and we get our best chance in months.

Been up since 4:30 cooking brisket for 175 people and hoping I can get it all done before the rain gets here... No one wash your cars or do any rain dances today until I finish this cook... THEN LET IT POUR!!!!!

Does any of the models say anything about freezing rain or ice?
Everything is rain. Nothing frozen.

Does any of the models say anything about freezing rain or ice?

No, it will be too warm. Temperatures will hover around 38-42F during rainfall.

The one weekend I don’t want it to rain and we get our best chance in months.

Been up since 4:30 cooking brisket for 175 people and hoping I can get it all done before the rain gets here... No one wash your cars or do any rain dances today until I finish this cook... THEN LET IT POUR!!!!!

My understanding is it won't start until around midnight. Hope you make it.

My understanding is it won't start until around midnight. Hope you make it.

That’s what I’ve heard too.... Right now I’m guessing I finish around 2:00 am. Good thing my boots are water proof! haha

This week will be interesting weather-wise. We could have flooding rainfall in eastern parts of the state with potential for winter precipitation further west.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2018021812/namconus_ref_frzn_scus_50.png

Mild today with strong southerly winds wreaking havoc on everything.

Today: Rain and storms will develop across NW TX this afternoon and fly to the north and east. Impacts from this in OKC will likely be after dark. Marginal chance a storm could be severe, nothing organized.

Tuesday: Rain in the morning from previous night. Drying out as the day goes on, cold air comes pooling down from NW OK as we head through the night.

Wednesday: Starkly colder with temperatures right around freezing to start the day, highs may get near 36F - but then the precipitation moves in from the south. Depending on temperatures, this could begin ice accumulation on elevated surfaces as we head into the evening. Remember, a few degrees changes everything. If it is closer to 28 near the surface, ice could be significant on elevated surfaces. Same for if it is closer to 32, ice will be very short-lived. This could vary drastically depending on localized areas of colder air.

Thursday: There will be a break in the first half of day from precip. With main storm system ejecting overhead, warm air from south should erode most of the colder surface air over C OK. Models are still unsure of just how much. More cold rain comes up from the SW and impacts nearly the entire state.


This scenario laid above leaves western and northwestern parts of the state in the colder air for the longest period of time, where there could be a more dramatic impact from ice accumulations.

Models are underestimating the cold air push so far. OKC metro may get passed by the boundary briefly this afternoon before it retreats back to the northwest overnight.

Check out the forecasted gradient, uppers 40s in the N metro with low 70s in the S metro.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2018021918/hrrr_T2m_scus_6.png

This forum is not loading for me very well right now. But winter weather advisory expanded south through all of OKC metro as temperatures fall near 32 with rain still moving overhead.

http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/noaa/wwa/maps/realtime/latest.oklahoma.winter.gif

Watched (and felt) it go from nearly 70 degrees just after 6:00 this morning to the 30s within half an hour. Then a thunderstorm in the next half hour. Thankful for the rain, but hope we don't get too much ice.

Ice accumulations this morning will be on elevated objects. We should see precipitation ending in a couple hours and temperatures will continue to fall throughout the day.

Hoping for a good soaking, but the temp really did just drop quite suddenly.

Got some small hail with the thunderstorms this morning. Now sitting at 32F and rain. NAM suggests another round of (more definitively) freezing rain tomorrow afternoon and evening.

Received almost an inch of rain here near Penn Square.

As of Tuesday 11am - Most of OKC is now 28F. Majority air column is currently freezing or below, so sleet will be main impact until late overnight when temperatures begin increasing heading into Wednesday morning.

Tuesday night into Wednesday: Warm air will begin riding north over the top of the cold air and create a corridor of shallow air that is freezing or below. Wherever this area sets up, localized icing will occur Wednesday afternoon and evening as the main low ejects out of Texas.

Models are trying to decide placement of this corridor and the intensity of the precipitation expected for Wednesday. NAM has been pretty spot-on so far for this storm, and is suggesting an initial wave of heavy sleet over C OK during the day and then spotty freezing drizzle and showers of freezing rain developing over C OK and into N OK until the early morning hours of Thursday where temperatures should be right near 32F.

I will update as the new models runs come in this afternoon and evening.

Received almost an inch of rain here near Penn Square.

My rain and wind gauge froze up at .58". Streets slushy.

http://stillwaterweather.com/wxgraphic.php?type=banner_big (http://stillwaterweather.com/)

We could see a few counties upgraded to Ice Storm Warning just south of OKC. Think Comanche, Stephens, Grady, McClain, Cleveland, Garvin, possibly Oklahoma.


Short-Range models are redeveloping precipitation over SW and C OK coming off of the storms in NW TX.

OKCPS is releasing high school students 30 minutes early today and most districts have cancelled after school and evening activities. Their statement makes it sound like they are already contemplating a possible closure tomorrow.

I wasn't expecting this today.

OU is now closed as well. Another batch of freezing rain moving in.

I wasn't expecting this today.

I'm not sure anyone was, including the meteorologists!

The development zone has just not progressed eastward like forecast to. We see another development pop happening as I type this down towards Lawton.

An area of growing concern is a general triangle from about Lawton to Moore to near Sulphur.

New Winter Weather Advisory for tomorrow 6am through midnight.

This thing really did come out of nowhere, just spend the last 15 minutes salting my driveway and sidewalks. I'm just going to guess that schools will be canceled for tomorrow.

Here is a snapshot of the HRRR showing the development of heavy freezing rain and sleet tomorrow afternoon. All models are insistent on this developing and the biggest impacts felt along I-35 corridor.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2018022021/hrrr_ref_frzn_scus_18.png

Are we looking at low 30’s tomorrow afternoon around OKC? Every little bit helps on the main streets.

Main precipitation will hit when temperatures forecast in C OK is near 30F.

If skies clear for part of tonight, then temperatures could begin the day much colder than anticipated. Warm air will be riding up from the south all night, so it will be combating the cold air @ the surface. This is why an icing scenario is extremely likely. As the day progresses, temperatures might actually reach 32 or higher - especially if the rain is heavy enough to warm the surface.

There is many factors in the various scenarios:

Heavier rain = rain causing the surface to warm (good - most things just wet and cold)
Moderate rain = rain causing surface to warm slightly (somewhat good - elevated object accumulate ice)
Light rain = no surface warming possible (bad - most things will accumulate ice)

And all scenarios above are also dependent on starting temperatures. Like I mentioned above, if we get clear skies tonight, the temperature could be 3-4 degrees colder than the forecast, which obviously means a worse scenario possible. If the low in the morning is closer to 20F than it is 30F, then things will be much worse - including ground temperatures likely @ freezing.

Norman Schools closed tomorrow.

Moore as well.

Piedmont

8:00 pm and still nothing from OKCPS.

Putnam City Schools cancelled a few hours ago, and they usually always wait until early morning.

Almost 11pm, First echos of today's precip are developing south of Midland/Odessa area. This will continue to fill in overnight.

Models tonight are trending toward heavier precipitation, which includes the forecast of warming the surface layer via rain. Skies are currently cloudy over C OK, which is helping to keep temperatures slightly propped up in the mid 20s. As long as it doesn't get too close to 20 or below, this is a trend in the right direction to have minimal impacts.

Will update in the morning.

Snapshot of heavy rain warming the surface over C OK:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2018022103/hrrr_ref_frzn_scus_18.png

Okay so our starting temperatures are worst-case scenario. Basically all of C OK is between 19F and 21F. Enough warming will not occur as precipitation comes in. Highs in OKC may not break 28F. Ground temperatures have also plummeted overnight and everything exposed will likely become iced over. Bridges, trees, and powerlines will be most significant, but regular roads will also become slick. Especially since sleet is likely to be mixed in early on.


Businesses should highly consider sending workers home around lunchtime, 5pm will be complete chaos.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2018022114/hrrr_ref_frzn_scus_6.png