Thanks for all the great updates!

So anyone have a guess as to what time this will enter the metro area? Does this look like a major ice storm? Power outtages?

Latest HRRR kills precipitation after the first initial wave with a huge slot of dry air over C OK, then redevelops drizzle and showers behind it into the night. Not sure I buy it, but it is something to watch for. Oklahoma winter storms always have this possibility of the infamous 'dryslot'.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2018022115/hrrr_ref_frzn_scus_10.png

So anyone have a guess as to what time this will enter the metro area? Does this look like a major ice storm? Power outtages?

Precipitation should begin in OKC metro around 1-2pm. Widespread power outages seems unlikely at this time, IMO.

Latest HRRR kills precipitation after the first initial wave with a huge slot of dry air over C OK, then redevelops drizzle and showers behind it into the night. Not sure I buy it, but it is something to watch for. Oklahoma winter storms always have this possibility of the infamous 'dryslot'.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2018022115/hrrr_ref_frzn_scus_10.png

Would that scenario be good or bad for us dummies?

Would that scenario be good or bad for us dummies?

Well the 3 hours before the dryslot, all of C OK is getting hit with heavy freezing rain and sleet, but the fact that it may get shut off early is a good thing.

I am not sure if this image will stay as-is. But you can see the dryslot the models are trying to take into account in the yellow below:

http://weather.cod.edu/data/satellite/subregional/S_Plains/current/S_Plains.09.jpg

Precipitation should begin in OKC metro around 1-2pm. Widespread power outages seems unlikely at this time, IMO.

Thanks,I always worry a little about power outages for the eldery folks that don't have family to help. Hopefully that dry slot moves out.

Here is a snapshot of the freezing drizzle and rain pockets (The pink blobs) that develop behind this initial large precipitation bulb. This type of 'spotty' development can really do damage as it is usually lighter and allows time for freezing on contact.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2018022116/hrrr_ref_frzn_scus_10.png

As you can see on radar, south central OK is getting the majority of the precipitation right now. This is across the same areas that got the most ice yesterday.

As I have mentioned above, redevelopment of drizzle and pockets of freezing rain behind this initial batch is possible into tonight.

You can see on this map, the temperature increase over the last few hours from the heavy rain in south central OK. This is the scenario of the heavier precipitation causing warming @ the surface layer.

https://i.imgur.com/veLsgRh.jpg

Spotty drizzle and showers developing now across NW TX, this development zone will likely shift north and east into the night. Temperatures will slowly rise overnight.

Then another heavier batch will develop across NW TX that will impact SW and C OK Thursday morning, we will be very close to 32F by then, but impacts to the morning drive is still likely.

Is winter over yet?

Thursday morning:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2018022122/hrrr_ref_frzn_scus_18.png

Well luckily I'll be driving to work at 5:20am...

Well luckily I'll be driving to work at 5:20am...

Or unlucky if info is correct. Heard a while ago that system could move in and slow to a crawl and sit right over central okc and take a pretty good dump on us.

Feels like the last snow day for the year! Very thankful we didn't get one of those stress-inducing, power-outage ice storms!

Heavy freezing rain will move into C OK in the next 2 hours. Temperatures are already near 30. Elevated objects will be subject to accumulation, but temperatures will get above freezing this afternoon and everything will just be wet.

Temp sitting at 31 degrees, struggling to make that push above the freezing line for the past hour or so.

Main Street was a skating rink this morning but the rain has pretty much melted it all.

Anyone heard if the burn ban has been lifted? I have some burning I need to do on the farmstead this weekend.

I hope we go to the lower 90s next week. I can't stand storm season, I would rather see half the state burn than have to face the thought of tornadoes. All this OK weather makes me so stressed out. I got spoiled living in Southern California LOL!

Feels like the last snow day for the year! Very thankful we didn't get one of those stress-inducing, power-outage ice storms!

You know, I've really come to enjoy winter weather (cold temperatures, moderate ice storms, and snow) over the past couple of years. I think mainly because it seems like we get less-and-less winter weather these days.

I enjoy the colder temperatures because I know that it is going to help with the bug problem in the summer.

I enjoy light/moderate ice storms because some of the most beautiful landscapes are those that have a small coating of ice.

I enjoy snow because...well...it's snow! Seems like that doesn't happen as often, and it is fun to see when we do get it.

Winter weather is a nice change of pace to our otherwise extreme weather.

You know, I've really come to enjoy winter weather (cold temperatures, moderate ice storms, and snow) over the past couple of years. I think mainly because it seems like we get less-and-less winter weather these days.

I enjoy the colder temperatures because I know that it is going to help with the bug problem in the summer.

I enjoy light/moderate ice storms because some of the most beautiful landscapes are those that have a small coating of ice.

I enjoy snow because...well...it's snow! Seems like that doesn't happen as often, and it is fun to see when we do get it.

Winter weather is a nice change of pace to our otherwise extreme weather.

Me too! I like the feel of this week as though we're all required to go into a few days of hibernation.

Freezing fog tonight as temperatures will hover between 30-34F.


Rain chances go up for southeastern half of the state Friday afternoon. Then better shot for rain/storms late Friday night into Saturday morning from just west of I-35 and to the east. Sunday and Monday look great.

Keeping eye on possible storm around the March 1-2 range.

Burn ban has been lifted for OKC.

Rain returns Tuesday early afternoon. Should see showers and storms develop over SW OK and expand across the state.

And depending on circumstances, we could see a chance of severe weather Wednesday afternoon.

Rain will be wrapping up here in C OK. as we head into this evening.

Chances of rain tomorrow are mainly moved to the SE 1/3 of the state around the same time in the afternoon. Highs near 70 for Wednesday and 60s through a beautiful weekend.

Insanely high fire danger the next few days. This wind is not going to let up anytime soon. Temperatures pretty stable around highs in low 60s, but the wind will make everything seem colder.

Next rain chances look very low, and not until the weekend.

Winds will gust up to 40mph this afternoon and into tonight. It will be pure misery to be outside. Fire danger is obviously critical.

woops posted in wrong thread.

Yes please.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DYGgAWsUQAAanfm.jpg

Yup. OK's spring is @ the doorstep.

Heading into this weekend with solid 70s as highs, near 80. After that we are looking at potential for rain chances with possibly some severe weather next week.

Jonathan Conder is saying this is likely to be a very active and significant severe weather season for central Oklahoma due to the combination of the drought, La Nina, and where the dryline is likely to set up. He compared this to years like 2011 and 2013. Would you agree with that Anonymous or is it still too early to tell?

Jonathan Conder is saying this is likely to be a very active and significant severe weather season for central Oklahoma due to the combination of the drought, La Nina, and where the dryline is likely to set up. He compared this to years like 2011 and 2013. Would you agree with that Anonymous or is it still too early to tell?

I don't know how relevant this is but..this article is a good read regarding la nina.
http://www.tornadotitans.com/la-nina-tornado-seasons-oklahoma-numbers/

Edit: I just watched his video. Ridiculous. Somebody asked if a 1974 super outbreak scenario is likely and he said it wouldn't surprise him. Also saying things like how this year will be close to the 2013 season? Just ridiculous.

I don't know how relevant this is but..this article is a good read regarding la nina.
http://www.tornadotitans.com/la-nina-tornado-seasons-oklahoma-numbers/

I like that forecast a lot better. Of course, as the article says, one event can make or break a year so its really hard to say at this point.

Edit: I just watched his video. Ridiculous. Somebody asked if a 1974 super outbreak scenario is likely and he said it wouldn't surprise him. Also saying things like how this year will be close to the 2013 season? Just ridiculous.

TV meteorologists shouldn't be allowed to talk out their ass like that just to scare people. KOCO is probably the worst offender these days.

I highly doubt this season will be an active season "because of X". Honestly claiming such things is pretty weak, even if they try and coat it with loose fitting things like La Nina.

If anything, we do know that a drought leads to more drought. The fact that a huge percentage of the plains and southwest is literally burning down - means that moisture is hard to come by.

Now I am not claiming that being in a drought means you can't have big storms. (Remember the discussion we have every year about how a single storm or event impacting a large population will give the appearance of an 'active' season whereas an EF-3 tornado tearing up fields of nothing in SW OK barely makes the news.) I will place money on the most activity being south and east just like it has been trending for the past decade or more.


http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/data/png/20180306/20180306_usdm.png



What is something we do know? Moisture begets moisture. Look @ this map and you will find where the moisture has been falling, and will continue to fall.

When will we hit 90 degrees+? It can't come soon enough.

Ian

I know it’s a dry area but I feel like western Oklahoma, Texas and Kansas with the epicenter in the TX/OK panhandle have been in a continual state of drought for years. For those that know how has this impacted agriculture and ranching in these areas?

Looks like a possibility of severe weather coming up for Sunday 3/18 Will have to keep an eye on it as the system gets closer. Latest model runs want to bring in more moisture.

I have a friend that is a OU grad student that is a meteorology major. He says we will really won't have much of a severe season if anything at all this year. So don't let these fearmongerers get to you. You will not have a tornado in your backyard at 4 pm in Yukon this weekend... or at any point this year.

Ian Drake

I have a friend that is a OU grad student that is a meteorology major. He says we will really won't have much of a severe season if anything at all this year. So don't let these fearmongerers get to you. You will not have a tornado in your backyard at 4 pm in Yukon this weekend... or at any point this year.

Ian Drake

Hate to tell you this, but we have a few on this board that loves the destructive nature of our severe weather. You will see.

I have a friend that is a OU grad student that is a meteorology major. He says we will really won't have much of a severe season if anything at all this year. So don't let these fearmongerers get to you. You will not have a tornado in your backyard at 4 pm in Yukon this weekend... or at any point this year.

Ian Drake

That's ridiculous, there will be severe weather in Oklahoma this spring and likely a few tornado outbreaks. Moisture is an issue right now but the state hasn't even entered it's spring rainy season yet.

I have a friend that is a OU grad student that is a meteorology major. He says we will really won't have much of a severe season if anything at all this year. So don't let these fearmongerers get to you. You will not have a tornado in your backyard at 4 pm in Yukon this weekend... or at any point this year.

Ian Drake

Here's hoping he's right - but I'm wondering...he hasn't been in Oklahoma very long, has he? Really dangerous to make those kinds of predictions IMHO. More reliance on the models.

We could have one of the relatively quietest tornado seasons on record in terms of number, but if just one of those rips through Moore or OKC or Bridge Creek or wherever.....how "quiet" the season is really won't matter.

... or at any point this year.
It's this type of hyperbolic declarative statement — just like the doomsday predictions — that essentially disqualifies the prognosticator from serious consideration.

It's this type of hyperbolic declarative statement — just like the doomsday predictions — that essentially disqualifies the prognosticator from serious consideration.

:yeahthat:

I have a friend that is a OU grad student that is a meteorology major. He says we will really won't have much of a severe season if anything at all this year. So don't let these fearmongerers get to you. You will not have a tornado in your backyard at 4 pm in Yukon this weekend... or at any point this year.

Ian Drake

David Payne gave his outlook and his was much calmer than Jonathan Conder's. He's calling for a below-average season with a more active April and quieter May (the opposite of how the past several years have been).


Hate to tell you this, but we have a few on this board that loves the destructive nature of our severe weather. You will see.

Actually I can think of only one poster who gets giddy every time there is even a small chance of severe weather, sometimes so much so it seems like he's trolling. He is the only OKCTalk poster that I have on my ignore list.

David Payne gave his outlook and his was much calmer than Jonathan Conder's. He's calling for a below-average season with a more active April and quieter May (the opposite of how the past several years have been).



Actually I can think of only one poster who gets giddy every time there is even a small chance of severe weather, sometimes so much so it seems like he's trolling. He is the only OKCTalk poster that I have on my ignore list.

Yep.... I think everyone that's been on here very long knows who this cat is.

Contrast to Damon Lane, who said La Nina is ending, and years without La Nina are normal to over-active...

So, what we're all trying to say is, don't trust any long term predictions about the potential intensity of the coming storm season. As Rick Smith with our Norman NWS office says, tornadoes don't care what month it is.

I have a friend that is a OU grad student that is a meteorology major. He says we will really won't have much of a severe season if anything at all this year. So don't let these fearmongerers get to you. You will not have a tornado in your backyard at 4 pm in Yukon this weekend... or at any point this year.

Ian Drake

Does your friend storm chase? I only hear people who are already pessimistic because of the slow start to the season speak in absolutes like this. Any model that goes out beyond a month is pretty much garbage.

Based on the last few years I will say there is a good chance that:
1. West will still be abnormally try.
2. What activity we do get could come later than usual. (late may or early June)
3. Anything can happen .

Strong and cold winds will blast out of the NW today. This will lead to a cold start for Tuesday.

No legitimate precipitation chances until maybe in the first week of April. Fire danger will be extreme later this week into the weekend with highs climbing into low 80s.

He is the only OKCTalk poster that I have on my ignore list.

Same

Enjoy today with basically no wind. Tomorrow and Friday will be extreme fire days with strong south winds. Saturday we should have lighter winds and it could be an awesome spring day in OK.

Sunday into next week things are turning around to better chances of rain with cooler temperatures.

Looks like Sunday afternoon 3-25-2018 will be our first shot of Severe weather for this upcoming series of storms. Hail and Low tornado threat looks most likely at this time.

Looks like Sunday afternoon 3-25-2018 will be our first shot of Severe weather for this upcoming series of storms. Hail and Low tornado threat looks most likely at this time.

Do you have an approximate time? Are we looking at 1:00 or closer to 4/5?

Do you have an approximate time? Are we looking at 1:00 or closer to 4/5?

This is just a broad overview as it is still early. Too early to get into those specifics yet check back on Saturday when we are in the 24 hr window.

This is just a broad overview as it is still early. Too early to get into those specifics yet check back on Saturday when we are in the 24 hr window.

Thanks. I figured it would be difficult to know this far out.

For those of you who knew Venture from here on OKC Talk, he now has a new site he is working on I will put the link to it below. This new site will cover severe weather for our state as well as other states and will have a chat on it where we can hang out in on severe weather days like the old Weather Spotlight site had. Here is info on the site and the link to it. He is still having some minor issues with the site so it might show as not found but will work shortly.

Big news! Sort of. :) The new website is up and going and will be flushed out as we make our way into Spring. It has been a struggle in recent years to find a platform that will work for everyone. Our new website allows for specific geographic regions to have their own discussion section. Users can join the various areas they wish and will see a feed of all the discussion on their dashboard.
This is really new, so there will probably be some growing pains. Looking for a ton of feedback on features, what can be done better, etc. Please check out the site. You can view the site as a guest, but the individual regions will require you to register for the site.

http://www.wxstuff.com/index.php?r=dashboard%2Fdashboard

SPC has a 15% probability for severe weather across TX/OK for Monday evening.

Models hinting @ multiple rounds of storms across several days, likely producing heavy rainfall. However, most of the concentration is across southeast OK (surprise surprise) where the drought is non-existent.

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i.gif?1521810568