2018 will begin in a couple of hours.

2018 schedule changes so far:

January - United drops nonstop service to Los Angeles (LAX)
March - ViaAir begins 4x weekly nonstop service to Austin, TX (AUS)
April - American begins 1x daily nonstop service to Phoenix, AZ (PHX)
April - Frontier begins 4x weekly nonstop service to San Diego, CA (SAN)
April - Southwest resumes 1x weekly nonstop service to Orlando, FL (MCO)
May - United resumes 1x daily nonstop service to New York/Newark, NJ (EWR)

What to watch for:

Alaska:

I am hopeful to see the Seattle flight upgraded to a larger aircraft. The route has been operating for more than 2 years at 85-90% average capacity. That said, their hands are full with the buyout of Virgin America and the feeling is they have bit off more than they can chew. They are not devoting the same attention to route development as they were before the merger. In fact, they have been retreating due to their mismanagement of the pilot shortage at Horizon Air.

Allegiant:

No one really knows with them. Currently they offer service to LAS and SFB (Orlando-Sanford) with seasonal service to LAX and VPS (Destin, FL). If the numbers looked good last year, the possibility of the same service returning looks good. Maybe some kind of wildcard addition with them is possible. MSY wouldn't be a crazy bet. Although I am not expecting that.

American:

Not expecting any major changes outside of what has been announced, but I wouldn't rule out the faint possibility of either PHL or MIA service being announced. Later in the year we may see some changes depending on how the addition of PHX affects their other flights.

Delta:

Not expecting any changes. Summer schedule might see some changes (upgauges or additional frequencies) to hubs other than ATL. A wildcard is with UA leaving the OKC-LAX market, they may look to that as an opportunity to grow west. Currently DL has practically no west presence out of OKC. 2 RJ flights to SLC are a drop in the bucket compared to AA, UA, and WN.

Frontier:

They fall in the same bucket as Allegiant, they are really all over the place. I could see them changing the DEN flight to daily (it is currently daily, but when SAN begins it goes to 4x weekly) for the summer. If the Orlando flight has done well for them thus far, the possibility of them adding some frequency to that market also wouldn't be a long shot. I doubt we will see new destinations from them.

Southwest:

Not expecting any changes from them either. With American entering the OKC-PHX market they might attempt another flight there to round out their offerings, but I am not expecting them to put up a fight with them. It's not an important market in the grand scheme of things.

United:

Not expecting any changes. With the drop of OKC-LAX the possibility of a second SFO flight does increase, but I don't think it is necessarily likely. If it does, it might just be a summer change.

Via Air:

They begin 4x weekly service to Austin, TX in March. I don't expect them to last long in the market, unfortunately. But I would be thrilled to be proven wrong.


Current route map (combined)
https://i.gyazo.com/31009b18cdbf1adadad90cc9e09f7ac9.png

Looks like Southwest will attempt the seasonal, 1x weekly roundtrip to Orlando beginning Apr 8. I guess it did decent enough for them to try that again.

Wait... will there be no more direct flights to LAX at all!?

Wait... will there be no more direct flights to LAX at all!?

American currently operates 2 daily round trip flights to LAX, and Allegiant offers seasonal less-than-daily flights to LAX in the late spring/summer.

Would be nice to see AA add an additional PHX frequency. A morning departure from OKC combined with an evening departure from PHX back to OKC would work great for our trips out west. Here's hoping they add it soon.

Someone used to post the daily passenger volume to each city. Does anyone remember who or know how to pull that data?

Someone used to post the daily passenger volume to each city. Does anyone remember who or know how to pull that data?

I can put some tables together tonight. Are there any destinations you have in mind particularly?

Here are the top city pairs:

Google the airport codes if you don't know it, the full table I made for OKC has roughly 100 rows and I wasn't going to type city names out.

City | # Round trip passengers per day. Divide by 2 for rough idea of passengers "one way". This data is from Quarter 2, 2017. This is the most recent data available.

HOU 583
LAX 483
DEN 462
*WAS 433
ORD 398
LAS 354
*NYC 289
ATL 285
SEA 242
DFW 227
MCO 216
SFO 211
PHX 208
BOS 170
SAN 145
MIA 130
STL 130
SAT 118
SLC 116
PDX 108
CLT 107
TPA 106
MSP 101
AUS 99
PHL 94
BNA 90
SMF 90
VPS 90
SFB 85
DTW 82
MSY 77
RDU 71
PIT 70


* WAS = Washington DC (IAD/DCA/BWI) NYC = New York City/Newark NJ (EWR/LGA/JFK)

I'd love for an airline to try OKC to LGA/JFK and either BOS or PHL. It looks like the traffic to MSY sucks, but that's another route I'd personally appreciate.

I'd love for an airline to try OKC to LGA/JFK and either BOS or PHL. It looks like the traffic to MSY sucks, but that's another route I'd personally appreciate.

MSY is a route which competes heavily with the automobile, so if a nonstop flight were available the market would likely be stimulated. It seems like an Allegiant or Frontier route.

A good example of this is CLT, before AA/US started the route the numbers were around 30-50 per day. Now it is 70-115 depending on the season.

MSY is a route which competes heavily with the automobile, so if a nonstop flight were available the market would likely be stimulated. It seems like an Allegiant or Frontier route.

A good example of this is CLT, before AA/US started the route the numbers were around 30-50 per day. Now it is 70-115 depending on the season.

Very interesting. Thank you for the insight. Is it a route Southwest might try? I don’t trust Allegiant and don’t really care for Frontier.

Very interesting. Thank you for the insight. Is it a route Southwest might try? I don’t trust Allegiant and don’t really care for Frontier.

Unlikely, they have been consolidating in larger markets as they slowly complete their shift from a P2P carrier to a hub-and-spoke network carrier. Not to say they will completely get away from point to points markets, however the possibility of them adding a relatively weak market like OKC-MSY is fairly small. They serve the market well thru DAL and HOU.

I'd prefer frontier out of the two to grow in OKC. Allegiant is a travel agency that has an in-house people mover, while Frontier is more dedicated to being an airline.

If Delta actually takes delivery of the C-Series, OKC-BOS wouldn't be out of the question. They've been devoting some attention to growing in BOS.

Only 227 passengers coming and going to DFW per day? Seems way low.

I see that Stillwater's AA flight had double their expectation in 2017.

Only 227 passengers coming and going to DFW per day? Seems way low.

I see that Stillwater's AA flight had double their expectation in 2017.

Seems right to me. Keep in mind these are market specific. Someone flying OKC-DFW-LAX is counted as an OKC-LAX passenger and not OKC-DFW. OKC-DFW only includes people flying whose final destination is DFW.

Seems right to me. Keep in mind these are market specific. Someone flying OKC-DFW-LAX is counted as an OKC-LAX passenger and not OKC-DFW. OKC-DFW only includes people flying whose final destination is DFW.

I see, makes sense now.

Thanks for the interesting info.

MSY is a route which competes heavily with the automobile, so if a nonstop flight were available the market would likely be stimulated. It seems like an Allegiant or Frontier route.

A good example of this is CLT, before AA/US started the route the numbers were around 30-50 per day. Now it is 70-115 depending on the season.

Allegiant tried TUL-MSY a couple years ago but ended it pretty quickly. Southwest could make it work but not likely not with a 737. Same thing with other regional cities like KC, Nashville and Austin/San Antonio.

Someone help me out with these flights. I see UAL sent 1x 767 right after The Rose Bowl to OKC and then 2x777'S yesterday. That one flight is a United Airlines plane even though the call sign is not UAL. I don't recall seeing a 767 leave OKC or even an additional 777 before The Rose Bowl so what was the purpose of these flights??

14339
'

Someone help me out with these flights. I see UAL sent 1x 767 right after The Rose Bowl to OKC and then 2x777'S yesterday. That one flight is a United Airlines plane even though the call sign is not UAL. I don't recall seeing a 767 leave OKC or even an additional 777 before The Rose Bowl so what was the purpose of these flights??

14339
'

Registration (tail number) of the 777-300.

Someone help me out with these flights. I see UAL sent 1x 767 right after The Rose Bowl to OKC and then 2x777'S yesterday. That one flight is a United Airlines plane even though the call sign is not UAL. I don't recall seeing a 767 leave OKC or even an additional 777 before The Rose Bowl so what was the purpose of these flights??

14339
'

The 767 was for the team and the 777 was for the band.

Ah ha. That's what I meant. Reg number. So if a 767 was for the team and a 777 was for the band then what was the additional 777 for?

That is strange, it was the same 77W for both trips. It ferried back to LAX then chartered back to OKC. Then ferried to SFO to resume regular service.

It was essentially full for both LAX-OKC segments.

Thanks for putting that together Catch!

Interesting Seattle is as high as it is. Would seem we could definitely support an upgrade there. Ib imagine part of that PDX number flies through Seattle well.

as was mentioned, the numbers are O&D and not fly-through/connections. so the Seattle numbers are just Seattle as the start or end destination, Portland is just PDX.

catch, was there no numbers for MDW or did ORD include the Chicago market as a whole?

very surprised there wouldn't be anything for WN's largest hub, even though the service was/will be dropped. ...

I think an even more interesting view is to see the airline terminators based on non-stop flights to/from OKC (looks like OKC has pretty good coverage):

HOU 583
LAX 483
DEN 462
*WAS 433
ORD 398
LAS 354
*NYC 289
ATL 285
SEA 242
DFW 227
MCO 216
SFO 211
PHX 208
BOS 170
SAN 145
MIA 130
STL 130
SAT 118
SLC 116
PDX 108
CLT 107
TPA 106
MSP 101
AUS 99
PHL 94
BNA 90
SMF 90
VPS 90
SFB 85
DTW 82
MSY 77
RDU 71
PIT 70

catch, was there no numbers for MDW or did ORD include the Chicago market as a whole?

very surprised there wouldn't be anything for WN's largest hub, even though the service was/will be dropped. ...

Chicago is a combined market, I should have labeled it CHI.

When is MDW ending? I still see it in the summer schedule.

If you book a flight, but just decide not to show up and don't cancel it, but you obviously never check in, will it still count as a trip on that list you posted?

If you book a flight, but just decide not to show up and don't cancel it, but you obviously never check in, will it still count as a trip on that list you posted?

No, those are actual "butts-in-seats". Even if it did, no shows are a small percentage and wouldn't sway the numbers in any meaningful manner.

Ah, that makes sense. Thank you for the response.

It will be about 8 or 9 months before the data is available, but I am curious to how F9 will stimulate the OKC-DEN market. That market peaked in 2014 and has since shrunk by about 25% (O&D traffic) over the ~2 years since they exited.

catch, was there no numbers for MDW or did ORD include the Chicago market as a whole?

very surprised there wouldn't be anything for WN's largest hub, even though the service was/will be dropped. ...

Midway is heavily growth restricted, not quite as bad as LaGuardia or Reagan but still limited with the high number of daily Southwest flights (largest WN Station). As a result Southwest has grown its operation at STL as a “reliever” for MDW. Time will tell if the rebuilding of the terminal at MCI will result in a similar WN expansion there, and a resumption of service to OKC. It is too bad OKC and TUL can’t at least keep 1x daily service to MDW.

I still see OKC-MDW available for sale through the end of the schedule. I don't think it is ending?

Midway is heavily growth restricted, not quite as bad as LaGuardia or Reagan but still limited with the high number of daily Southwest flights (largest WN Station). As a result Southwest has grown its operation at STL as a “reliever” for MDW. Time will tell if the rebuilding of the terminal at MCI will result in a similar WN expansion there, and a resumption of service to OKC. It is too bad OKC and TUL can’t at least keep 1x daily service to MDW.

Catch can correct me if I’m wrong but hopefully okc becomes this for Dallas love field one day. Love field is a pain to fly through, SWA books way too many flights through there.

More trans-Atlantic flights for OKC's regional peers, this time Icelandair nonstop service from Kansas City to Reykjavik. https://thepointsguy.com/2018/01/kansas-city-icelandair-route/?utm_source=FACEBOOK&utm_medium=social&utm_term=Editorial&utm_campaign=FACEBOOK-100000125355431

15 years ago you would have been laughed at for even thinking such a flight could exist..

So it is an almost Transatlantic flight i guess ?
Good for them as they get more choice to travel to Europe but still one connection.
I am more choked by Indianapolis, being just twice as big as OKC in PAX, getting a direct flight to Paris with Delta, this year.

So it is an almost Transatlantic flight i guess ?
Good for them as they get more choice to travel to Europe but still one connection.
I am more choked by Indianapolis, being just twice as big as OKC in PAX, getting a direct flight to Paris with Delta, this year.

There is likely more corporate O&D especially with Eli Lilly HQ'd there. Similar to the RDU-LHR flight that GlaxoSmithKline helps support. Cities without that O&D and more leisure travel to Europe, like KC and St Louis, get Iceland flights. While it's a one-stop the flights are timed so that you fly overnight and arrive in Reykjavik for the early morning flight bank to cities across Europe arriving in the late morning or early afternoon depending on location. I flew Icelandair DEN-KEF-DEN and enjoyed it, but Iceland was my final destination.

Incredible expansion by the Icelandic airlines. I wonder if something will give eventually. For example, three airlines will fly DFW-KEF next summer, when previously no one has ever flown that route. I know FI and WW are geared to the discount-Europe market along with Iceland O&D, but wow.

I understand the appeal of the Iceland connection. But if you are going to Europe it's still a stop you have to make. So to me I don't really care if that stop is Dallas, Houston, Atl, ect. So I guess it comes down to price. Is the Iceland connection really a money saver? I am ignorant on their prices.

Iceland Air and WOW Airlines really seem to be growing like crazy.

One of the airlines that goes through Iceland allows like a 7-day layover that lets you see Iceland as part of your trip. I would take that over DFW even if it costs a little more.

One of the airlines that goes through Iceland allows like a 7-day layover that lets you see Iceland as part of your trip. I would take that over DFW even if it costs a little more.

They both offer the free stopover now. Not sure if they both do 7-day or not though.

I understand the appeal of the Iceland connection. But if you are going to Europe it's still a stop you have to make. So to me I don't really care if that stop is Dallas, Houston, Atl, ect. So I guess it comes down to price. Is the Iceland connection really a money saver? I am ignorant on their prices.

$300-400 r/t to Europe isn't uncommon. WW and FI charge for literally everything (seats, carry-ons, checked bags, meals), but it can still be cheap. Having said that, the legacies are certainly fighting back and matching those fares (on certain city-pairs anyway).

3.925 million for 2017.

https://flyokc.com/sites/default/files/News/December2017Enplanement.pdf

Nice growth on the home stretch! Not sure if we'll see any new routes(beyond what has already been announced) off of this but we will certainly see an upgauge in equipment I'm sure

Those Frontier numbers are incredible. How is it that in their short amount of time here they surpassed Alaska which has had service all year??? Wow.

Those Frontier numbers are incredible. How is it that in their short amount of time here they surpassed Alaska which has had service all year??? Wow.

Alaska literally only offers ~4600 round trip seats per month. They are maxed.

What's up with this flight? Allegiant flight scheduled to operate from Fargo to Orlando diverted to OKC. The flight took off from Fargo and stayed around10,000 feet for a while. Then climbed but never exceed 19,000 feet all the way to OKC. Why would a flight operating from Fargo to Orlando divert to OKC? The flight # didn't seem to suggest it was a ferry flight. Right? 14362

What's up with this flight? Allegiant flight scheduled to operate from Fargo to Orlando diverted to OKC. The flight took off from Fargo and stayed around10,000 feet for a while. Then climbed but never exceed 19,000 feet all the way to OKC. Why would a flight operating from Fargo to Orlando divert to OKC? The flight # didn't seem to suggest it was a ferry flight. Right? 14362

IIRC, Allegiant has contract maintenance done at OKC. Could be something mechanical happened in Fargo and they sent it to OKC...?

IIRC, Allegiant has contract maintenance done at OKC. Could be something mechanical happened in Fargo and they sent it to OKC...?

That is likely. The altitude restriction sounds like a broken air conditioning pack (can't pressurize the aircraft higher)

Those Frontier numbers are incredible. How is it that in their short amount of time here they surpassed Alaska which has had service all year??? Wow.

Wow - suggests that OKC is still underserved. I get the sense F9 and NK go into markets looking to generate traffic with low fares (folks who choose to fly who otherwise may not have). For whatever reason the ULCCs have stayed away from OKC, but maybe this will change things. I wonder if SAN does well for F9 if NK will take another look here.

Wow - suggests that OKC is still underserved. I get the sense F9 and NK go into markets looking to generate traffic with low fares (folks who choose to fly who otherwise may not have). For whatever reason the ULCCs have stayed away from OKC, but maybe this will change things. I wonder if SAN does well for F9 if NK will take another look here.

I have believed for a while that the low fare leisure market out of OKC has been underserved. Our business markets appear to be overserved or matched pretty well with demand.

I know this isn't a sexy topic but per an investor call today , AAR has seen the amount of airplanes serviced triple in the last 3 years. Mainly on Boeing aircraft. Good news for OKC

I know this isn't a sexy topic but per an investor call today , AAR has seen the amount of airplanes serviced triple in the last 3 years. Mainly on Boeing aircraft. Good news for OKC
That is good news.

As an aside, is the new construction just south of Field's hangars the new SkyWest maintenance hangar?

That is good news.

As an aside, is the new construction just south of Field's hangars the new SkyWest maintenance hangar?

Yes between Atlantic and Field (former ARINC). Looks a lot larger than the renderings showed.

Yes between Atlantic and Field (former ARINC). Looks a lot larger than the renderings showed.

Yeah, it’s huge. Driving west on 240, you can see it over the I-44 ramp and it’s pretty impressive.

Was looking ahead at Allegiant this year and their summer peak schedule in July is fairly robust.

https://i.gyazo.com/937cf01d56bb8fb201b22f877e7978fd.png

OKC to Philly announced

http://news.aa.com/press-releases/press-release-details/2018/American-Airlines-Expands-Network-in-2018-and-Introduces-Shuttle-Service-Between-Chicago-OHare-and-New-York-LaGuardia/default.aspx

okc to philly announced

http://news.aa.com/press-releases/press-release-details/2018/american-airlines-expands-network-in-2018-and-introduces-shuttle-service-between-chicago-ohare-and-new-york-laguardia/default.aspx
Yay!!

OKC to Philly announced

http://news.aa.com/press-releases/press-release-details/2018/American-Airlines-Expands-Network-in-2018-and-Introduces-Shuttle-Service-Between-Chicago-OHare-and-New-York-LaGuardia/default.aspx

This is the one I've been waiting for. Great news.

Haven't been able to find the equipment they plan on using for this route but I imagine an RJ of some sort.

Great news!

Glad to see US airways finally take an interest in OKC!