Beautiful first weekend of December. Highs in the low 70s and sunshine.

High fire danger Monday with highs in the upper 70s ahead of a strong storm that will send cold air plunging down from the NW.

It appears it will be a dry, cold event for most of OK. Maybe some rain in extreme SE OK. Highs next week look like they will struggle to get out of the 40s.

The next week looks pretty decent, but dry. 60s and 50s alternating pretty much every day for highs. Extreme fire danger is pretty much going to be an issue everyday until we get moisture.


2 weeks away from Christmas Day. I will start giving updates on general weather for that time period as we edge closer. Remember that trends is what you rely on, not any single run.

Currently, models indicate there will be an aggressive arctic blast across most of the US for Christmas. Including a large area receiving precipitation. At this time, OK weather for Christmas looks to be a high of about 25F with snow possible.

The next week looks pretty decent, but dry. 60s and 50s alternating pretty much every day for highs. Extreme fire danger is pretty much going to be an issue everyday until we get moisture.


2 weeks away from Christmas Day. I will start giving updates on general weather for that time period as we edge closer. Remember that trends is what you rely on, not any single run.

Currently, models indicate there will be an aggressive arctic blast across most of the US for Christmas. Including a large area receiving precipitation. At this time, OK weather for Christmas looks to be a high of about 25F with snow possible.

Incoming local news teasers for two weeks about a white christmas

Incoming local news teasers for two weeks about a white christmas

Channel 4 started doing 11 day forecasts. You know because 7 days isn't enough.

Channel 4 started doing 11 day forecasts. You know because 7 days isn't enough.

KOCO has been doing a 5+5 for a while now... it's not that unheard of.

^^^^^

KOCO has been doing a 5+5 for a while now... it's not that unheard of.

I had heard that forecasts can't be *really* accurate more than about 5-7 days out, but maybe with new tech 10 day forecasts are accurate enough. I still don't trust more than 5 days out, though.

I had heard that forecasts can't be *really* accurate more than about 5-7 days out, but maybe with new tech 10 day forecasts are accurate enough. I still don't trust more than 5 days out, though.

I didn't say you should trust it, just that they're being produced. :)

Incoming local news teasers for two weeks about a white christmas

It honestly wouldn't surprise me. GFS paints doomsday, so the ratings leading into the Holiday will technnically have merit, but calling anything this far out would be completely disingenuous.

As of today this is the forecast for Christmas Day.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017121212/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_46.png

Okay, the bigger question will be whether this all clears out by later in that week when people start heading to LA for the Rose Bowl. Lots of folks leaving out of the OKC or even DFW area late that week I suspect... :)

I hope that changes to more blue than purple for Central Oklahoma if anything does happen.

I hope that changes to more blue than purple for Central Oklahoma if anything does happen.

Yeah this far out I'm not counting on anything either way. Do not need ice that week (well, don't really need it any other week for that matter).

Think the TV folks are primarily focusing on the fact that the models are all seemingly trending toward *something* happening on Christmas weekend. Probably cold. Probably wet. How cold and how wet remain to be seen.

The GFS has been pretty consistent over the last 10-12 runs (with 1-2 exceptions) in terms of cold air entering the S. Plains a couple of days prior to Christmas. All over the place with precip, though. Strongest signal for precip is well south and east of Oklahoma, though there are some runs where Oklahoma gets precip + the cold air.

FWIW, comparing between models (initialized 0z on Dec. 13) at 0z on the 23rd shows that the GFS is the cold outlier relative to the Euro and Canadian. All three have quite different precipitation forecasts, too, which is unsurprising for a 240-hour forecast.

Right on track:

https://www.thelostogle.com/2017/12/14/okc-media-already-teasing-a-christmas-snowmageddon/

^ That is actually hilarious. Is KFOR really already showing a 6am, 12pm, 6pm forecast for Christmas day?

There is a dandy GFS website with an animated ensemble of each interval run that you can "animate with a little slider bar
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2017121512&fh=258&xpos=0&ypos=0

The funny thing is that newest run seems to push most of any winter precip down to the SE part of the state around Christmas.

Rain chances increasing tonight. Best chances will be the SE parts of the state, but OKC will still likely see a light rain pass through. Extreme fire danger today and basically all of this coming week.

Anon, would you concur that those last few runs have been showing the possibility of a pretty interesting ice/sleet event right around Christmas Eve in the DFW area, and a chance at perhaps a dusting of snow in the southern part of the state (s of I-40)?

TX and OK both are being consistently slammed by this upcoming storm in the GFS model. I will say, the GFS is notorious for painting things as way too extreme when it is this far out from the event. For example, the force and distance of the cold air being pushed so abnormally far south seems unreasonable. It is possible, but I bet as we get closer things will be dialed back. That raises some concerns as that would put a potential track directly over OK as opposed to more over TX. It will be very important to keep track of this over the next 4-5 days. My guess is the forecast is more north by the end of this week.

And the very latest run seems to take that bad slam out of Texas, moves it to mostly a rain event to the east, but does show some snow/sleet for central OK overnight 24th into Christmas Day. These things are so wacky and volatile it's just nothing much more than a conversation item at this point.

Norman Weather Center going with a flurries, less than one inch graphic as of this morning also adding models are trending drier.

Yes the extreme fluctuations the GFS is going through from run-to-run can only mean one thing. That we are getting closer to legitimate forecasting windows!

By Thursday/Friday we should have a decent idea, as the cold air will be filtering into place. Until then, enjoy the swings.

Tuttle is hyping highs in the low single digits and lows near -10, which will cause power outages and pipe bursts.

David Payne is adamant that there will no snow or close to none, and was downright ridiculing those who say otherwise on his FB live video today. The others, including AT are leaving the door open for winter precip but I haven't heard anyone say it is locked in.

Tuttle is hyping highs in the low single digits and lows near -10, which will cause power outages and pipe bursts.

That's the forecast for up here in MN

The last GFS run is even drier still.

Hey Anon.... any thoughts on the latest GFS run for the OKC/DFW area on 29 Dec..big winter blob suddenly showed up out of almost nowhere in last two runs....lots of folks heading to LA area from OK in that timeframe....too early to be concerned?

Models ejecting the first piece of next week's storm much further north than previous runs. This essentially forces dry Canadian air down into the plains and cuts off any chance of wet snow. Potential for dry snow showers still exists Sunday/Monday, but any major storm is pretty much not possible in this scenario. Will have to keep watching to see if this holds.

In regards to SoonerDave's question. The GFS is basically predicting a closed-off low will develop out of the Rockies and strengthen directly over TX/OK on the tail end of the [would-be Christmas storm]. This is a very rare scenario and I wouldn't hang my hat on it, just yet. Especially since we haven't seen the cold air get into place. This Thursday into Friday things will become more legitimate as the cold, dry air will be in place.

By the way, if you were in OKC in 2009, this scenario described above is what happened on Christmas Eve where OKC recorded its 1-day snowfall record.

Tuttle is hyping highs in the low single digits and lows near -10, which will cause power outages and pipe bursts.

The GFS currently has lows in the low teens. Not sure what Tuttle's deal is or what he's basing that on but he'd probably not be my first source for forecast information...

Chances of rain increasing for C and E OK heading into tonight. Models show rain spreading from N TX across the state, and then potentially heavy rain developing directly over C OK as it gets dark.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2017121912/hrrr_ref_frzn_scus_13.png

In regards to the holiday storm for this weekend into the week. Models have begun trending back towards impacts to the state of OK. Like I keep mentioning, just keep monitoring the trends. I think by Friday afternoon, we will have a good shot @ a forecast.

In regards to the holiday storm for this weekend into the week. Models have begun trending back towards impacts to the state of OK. Like I keep mentioning, just keep monitoring the trends. I think by Friday afternoon, we will have a good shot @ a forecast.

I will try my best to make a highlight video of local news weather hype on Friday then!

For the first time, I have really started studying each new run of the GFS and have been stunned at the run-to-run variability. I mean, I knew it was variable, but not THIS variable. One run it's a 2ft blizzard, the next run only 12 hours later, the same spot is dry.

Tuttle, in his most recent blog post, is now predicting an ice storm instead of snow. Thoughts?

I mean if he is going all-in with the Canadian model, then yes it currently shows an ice storm for a large part of OK.

For the first time, I have really started studying each new run of the GFS and have been stunned at the run-to-run variability. I mean, I knew it was variable, but not THIS variable. One run it's a 2ft blizzard, the next run only 12 hours later, the same spot is dry.

Wonderful, right? Each model is swinging around all over the place. Remember not to pay attention to any single run (this far out). You can focus on single runs when the event is very imminent as the accuracy is exponentially better. But we are still 4+ days out of the beginning of the event, trends is what you need to watch. Over the weekend, models trended dry and further east track. Now they are trending wet and further west.

Wonderful, right? Each model is swinging around all over the place. Remember not to pay attention to any single run (this far out). You can focus on single runs when the event is very imminent as the accuracy is exponentially better. But we are still 4+ days out of the beginning of the event, trends is what you need to watch. Over the weekend, models trended dry and further east track. Now they are trending wet and further west.

Well my mistake was looking at things even a bit farther than that - around the 28th/29th timeframe, and that's like playing darts blindfolded. In the last day or two, I've seen runs for a) bone dry, b) ice storm, c) snow storm, and d) heavy rain and sometimes changing that drastically in back-to-back runs.

Oh yea trying to forecast storm #2 before #1 even unfolds is definitely going to be a rollercoaster. Also I am not sure if you are comparing forecast hour to forecast hour, but remember storms speed up and slowdown, so you may have to look @ other forecasting hours to find the storm you may have been looking @ in a previous run. Hope that makes sense.

What's it looking like for Wichita? Driving down from MSP Friday and it looks like we've cleared out in the Twin Cities but south of us is looking poor, including a good chunk of our drive down 35

Tuttle, in his most recent blog post, is now predicting an ice storm instead of snow. Thoughts?

I think he needs to just calm down. I appreciate his scientific explanations, but I kind of get disgusted when he toots his own horn in his live broadcasts and blog. I had to close it when he said that the NWS was now getting behind his prediction. I don't chime in for the weather discussions much, but I really appreciate what you guys do on here. I get a lot more information out of your posts than anywhere else, really.

All models continuing trend to shift this weekend's storm west and bring in more moisture.

We still need to wait for the cold air to arrive Thursday night for solid atmosphere sampling for the model data, but the signatures so far point to a classic OK winter storm.

Anon, help me out on the GFS....the last run I saw appeared to have mostly a rain event focused on the southeast half of the state around the 23rd and moving out east and south, with nothing else for Christmas weekend...but you were just posting about a classic winter storm setup...what am I missing? Or is this a different model?

GFS is appearing out-to-lunch as the other models are trending toward a similar solution. The real solution is likely somewhere in between. You can't just pick one and run with it because it creates the most hype (Tuttle).

The Canadian has been favoring a western track that puts ice potential along I-44 corridor.
The NAM has came all the way back and is mostly in line with the Canadian, but is favoring slightly further west impacts.
The GEM window doesn't have the full storm in it yet, but the lead-up is matching to the NAM/Canadian, but slightly colder.

From my experience, you have to take an average approach to the forecast and then begin weighing the more reliable models and their respective forecasting windows. A lot of meteorologist use past experiences to help determine which models they are going to rely on the most.

I mentioned classic winter storm due to the complexity of it. We could have a scenario where just south of I-44 is 30F with freezing rain, while NW OK is 34F and SE OK is 36F. Right now NAM paints an area from Lawton to Norman to south of Tulsa with heavy freezing rain. Then brief wrap-around heavy snow.

Using the information we have right now, it appears that scenario is plausible. But like I said, we still have a long ways to go. The next 6 runs could push everything back into Arkansas again.

Thanks, Anon!

Couple things as we roll toward the weekend...

If you like to read about weather, I found a nice little forum here (well, it's also a subforum for the OK area): https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/50335-moksarok-2017-2018-winter-wonderland-discussion/?page=8

Second, some interesting discussion here that some of the models are starting to trend warmer and a bit drier going into Christmas. Won't pretend to understand ALL the things they go into there, but it seems the general sense among those in that forum were disappointed in a trend away from the harsher winter forecasts in some of the more recent models as we approach the weekend, especially with apparent increases in temperatures being seen. Interestingly enough, even though this is a national forum, they actually mention AT in there at one point, for "comic relief" I think they said.

Models are all coming to a consensus of majority precipitation being in SE OK. What would have been the precip affecting south of I-44 corridor is expected to be mostly in the form of rain. Temperatures will be too warm for any significant winter scenario.

The is a chance of a brief period of moderate snow if a wrap-around zone forms on the backside, but dry air will dictate if that even occurs. If it does, OKC could get a quick dusting late overnight.


Next storm starts taking shape by Wednesday evening. At this time, it appears as a cold rain event for most of OK. Will monitor closely to see if this arctic air is actually going to come through or if it has been trolling this whole time.

Thanks Anonymous for the weather info. I know Mike Morgan is worried about next week.

I would imagine many people who went through it feel well blessed from the memory of the Christmas Eve blizzard of 2009 and also knowing what a White Christmas is really like and aren't anxious to be so richly blessed once again.

X2!!

There was one Christmas where we had a terrible ice / sleet storm a few days after and I could not get out of OKC to fly back to L.A.

After a couple of days, I ended up driving to Tulsa and taking a direct flight from there.

That was in the late 90's or early 00's I believe. It was a pretty big nightmare.

There was one Christmas where we had a terrible ice / sleet storm a few days after and I could not get out of OKC to fly back to L.A.

After a couple of days, I ended up driving to Tulsa and taking a direct flight from there.

That was in the late 90's or early 00's I believe. It was a pretty big nightmare.

Multiply that by a few hundred (or more) who are planning to get out of OKC late next week for LA to see OU in the Rose Bowl. An ice storm late next week here or in the Dallas area could be a nightmare. I, for one, am flying out of DFW next Friday and booked a room just off the airport the day before just in case, but I sure don't have a contingency for an ice storm. Geez. Let's hope that just doesn't happen.

Multiply that by a few hundred (or more) who are planning to get out of OKC late next week for LA to see OU in the Rose Bowl. An ice storm late next week here or in the Dallas area could be a nightmare. I, for one, am flying out of DFW next Friday and booked a room just off the airport the day before just in case, but I sure don't have a contingency for an ice storm. Geez. Let's hope that just doesn't happen.

Although forecasts a week out are obviously problematic, I'm heartened to see the most recent update for the DFW area next week now shows temperatures warming up - they were talking lows in the low 30's with risks of sleet as recently as yesterday, but now that's been bumped up to the mid 30's and no more mention of sleet. And precip on Friday has been taken out completely.

Temperatures around OKC currently about 28-30F. Some light patchy drizzle should develop as we head through the morning. Then an extremely local band of light freezing rain may mix in somewhere near C OK, most likely impacted area would be just south and east of the metro.

Temperatures might break 32F, it will be close. After nightfall a chance of wrap-around snow is possible and a quick dusting would be the result if it comes to fruition.

Here is a snapshot of potential band that develops this morning:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2017122213/hrrr_ref_frzn_scus_3.png

The low is ejecting now. This additional lift will develop additional snow/sleet showers across W OK into C OK as we head into the evening. Short-range models show potential for about a quick inch as this wrap around slides through.

Depending on banding of moderate snow showers, localized areas could get 1-3 inches.

Was just out with my dog in the Penn Square area and got hit with some freezing rain and sleet.

Looks like Mesonet isn't predicting any winter precip for the Metro in the coming week. Any possibility that we will still have a snow/sleet/freezing rain event soon?

Looks like Mesonet isn't predicting any winter precip for the Metro in the coming week. Any possibility that we will still have a snow/sleet/freezing rain event soon?

Hopefully rain, but no freezing precip.

Only hype I’m seeing is crazy cold wind chills on New Years Day. Fine with me as it will be 72 inside watching OU beat down Georgia.

This coming weekend still needs watching. A storm system will be sinking down across the plains. Models cannot determine if there will be enough moisture to actually do something, or if it will just be more cold, dry air.

KFOR is hyping a major ice storm while Aaron Tuttle is more focused on temps in the -10s (none of the TV mets are forecasting that). News9 currently has a winter mix for Saturday morning and cold but not unheard of temps going into New Years Day. Hoping that is what pans out.