While I'm actually shopping in a different region of the country (the last few summers here have done me in), something I've noticed is a significant amount of ARMs about to kick in with current rates on pandemic properties in that region. Is that possibly also one of the factors here?

I don’t believe so, very few people have taken ARM’s. At least in the residential market anyways.

I don’t believe so, very few people have taken ARM’s. At least in the residential market anyways.

if someone took a ARM during the lowest interest rates (basically of all-time) they very much deserve what they get ..

if someone took a ARM during the lowest interest rates (basically of all-time) they very much deserve what they get ..

I mean, 2019 and early 2020 were pre-Covid. So those people don't necessarily deserve it. If they took one in late 2020 or 2021, then I agree with you.

if someone took a ARM during the lowest interest rates (basically of all-time) they very much deserve what they get ..

On commercial loans...most banks won't do a fixed. We got nailed with that last year but things have gotten better. 5 year ARMs in 2019 were tough when they adjusted. We had to refi a few properties to get them back to positive cash flow.

On commercial loans...most banks won't do a fixed. We got nailed with that last year but things have gotten better. 5 year ARMs in 2019 were tough when they adjusted. We had to refi a few properties to get them back to positive cash flow.

i should have specified residential .

I only know of 2 people that have done an ARM on residential, one was family of my wife & another was a very high net worth client I had in 22. Family ended up selling in 22 and rented for a year before purchasing again last year. Both of these scenarios are for folks in top 1 & 2-3% respectively income wise so they could afford the risk. Otherwise an ARM on residential made virtually no sense for a decade until the last couple years perhaps. Even then I think still ill advised for most people unless you can really afford the risk. No guarantee rates aren't going up still.

I only know of 2 people that have done an ARM on residential, one was family of my wife & another was a very high net worth client I had in 22. Family ended up selling in 22 and rented for a year before purchasing again last year. Both of these scenarios are for folks in top 1 & 2-3% respectively income wise so they could afford the risk. Otherwise an ARM on residential made virtually no sense for a decade until the last couple years perhaps. Even then I think still ill advised for most people unless you can really afford the risk. No guarantee rates aren't going up still.

ARMs were a lot more attractive over the last 2-3 years with the rapid increase in rates. I was able to lock in a 7/1 ARM 2 years ago for 4.75% when the best 30 year option I could get was 7%+ .There's obviously some risk there, but the reality is we'll either refinance or sell our house in that 7 year period.

ARMs were a lot more attractive over the last 2-3 years with the rapid increase in rates. I was able to lock in a 7/1 ARM 2 years ago for 4.75% when the best 30 year option I could get was 7%+ .There's obviously some risk there, but the reality is we'll either refinance or sell our house in that 7 year period.

Yea I'm sure there's a few people here & there like you who have done it but by and large from all of the transactions I have done and see come through all of my clients at least have stayed fixed. Rate buy downs either from builder if purchasing new or even from some sellers in the used market have been more common.

People on my network are talking recession in late 2025 through 2026 with interest rates falling to unlock the housing market. OKCRealtor, what are the chances of this scenario occuring according to your network?

There’s always the chance we could have a recession but most of the economic indicators are pretty strong overall. I don’t think it’s the base/expected case from Fed or most economists.

I think reality is we have no idea what we’re getting next year. We are going to get a huge shake up & change of policy direction. If Trump is serious about DOGE and let’s Musk/Ramaswamy go to town and starts slashing federal jobs and budget all bets are off IMO.

The economy has been so propped up by massive amounts of government spending & federal job creation last couple years that if that rug gets pulled no telling what short term effects are. Even if the funds rate goes down it doesn’t mean mortgage rates will. There’s an enormous amount of pressure on government bonds and the 10 year which mortgage rates most closely track. It’s why mortgage rates have gone up roughly 75 basis points while the fed has cut their funds rate 75 basis points this fall.

What’s your network looking at thinking? I honestly think we would have been better off if we had recession but the government propped it up with $10 trillion to the deficit since 2020 so it’s not like they’ll just let it happen. I know some people out there believe they will force one and try to reset things. It’s almost like we need one.

Gotta keep in mind that Trump is very pro equities & real estate, he wants to see them do very well & get the rates down not force a recession. In theory if we can get some of the government waste under control it should take some pressure off treasury yields and relax the rates. The real reason they can’t get them down is all of the Biden admins massive spending but financial markets actually think Trump will be worse so it’s a real interesting time. That’s why mortgage rate expectations have moved quite a bit higher since the election & virtually every economist is upping their long range projections which is a sign of economic strength as well.

There’s always the chance we could have a recession but most of the economic indicators are pretty strong overall. I don’t think it’s the base/expected case from Fed or most economists.

I think reality is we have no idea what we’re getting next year. We are going to get a huge shake up & change of policy direction. If Trump is serious about DOGE and let’s Musk/Ramaswamy go to town and starts slashing federal jobs and budget all bets are off IMO.

The economy has been so propped up by massive amounts of government spending & federal job creation last couple years that if that rug gets pulled no telling what short term effects are. Even if the funds rate goes down it doesn’t mean mortgage rates will. There’s an enormous amount of pressure on government bonds and the 10 year which mortgage rates most closely track. It’s why mortgage rates have gone up roughly 75 basis points while the fed has cut their funds rate 75 basis points this fall.

What’s your network looking at thinking? I honestly think we would have been better off if we had recession but the government propped it up with $10 trillion to the deficit since 2020 so it’s not like they’ll just let it happen. I know some people out there believe they will force one and try to reset things. It’s almost like we need one.

Gotta keep in mind that Trump is very pro equities & real estate, he wants to see them do very well & get the rates down not force a recession. In theory if we can get some of the government waste under control it should take some pressure off treasury yields and relax the rates. The real reason they can’t get them down is all of the Biden admins massive spending but financial markets actually think Trump will be worse so it’s a real interesting time. That’s why mortgage rate expectations have moved quite a bit higher since the election & virtually every economist is upping their long range projections which is a sign of economic strength as well.

https://www.thebalancemoney.com/us-deficit-by-year-3306306

Deficit in Billions
2019- $984
2020- $3,132
2021-$2,772
2022- $1,376
2023= $1,684

https://www.thebalancemoney.com/us-deficit-by-year-3306306

Deficit in Billions
2019- $984
2020- $3,132
2021-$2,772
2022- $1,376
2023= $1,684

Taken from that source - it's all about the debt to GDP ratio. We are basically at all time highs depending on source. It's unsustainable, Jerome Powell has been warning for a few years now. It's way over 100%. Most of 2020 was bipartisan Covid relief. 2021-current they just never slowed it down in other ways so cumulatively we've got 5 years of spending damage done now.

One key differentiator though is 2022 - current has all been done in a very high rate environment where as 2020 & 2021 (should have stopped the spending here) was ultra low so these last few year deficits are in fact at least 2x as large (really higher the way interest works) We are paying over $1 trillion in interest alone this year, that's up like 35% from 2023 I believe which was also a record. Those bills keep coming the next decade unfortunately. What we've done since 22 is essentially rack up a tremendous amount of high rate credit card debt.

"The national debt can negatively impact the economy if it gets too large. The level of debt is also compared to GDP to determine whether there's too much debt for the economy to handle.

This comparison is called the debt-to-GDP ratio (debt divided by GDP). The country reaches a tipping point if the ratio is more than 77%.9 That's when lenders begin to worry about whether it's safe to buy the country's bonds. They think the government may not be able to pay back its debt. The debt-to-GDP ratio spiked to more than 130% in 2020 and has remained above 115% since."

PWC article regarding UIL’s recent report on top real estate markets to watch OKC ranked at a respectable 41 out of the top 80 markets. The only city in the state to make it on the list.
https://digitalmkg.pwc.com/etre-2025-pwc-uli/p/27
19389

First time buyers should consider Cleveland County for that purchase. Nice program for those who qualify.
Cleveland County Launches First-Time Homebuyer Assistance Program
https://www.news9.com/story/6771e10d376120dafd28cbc8/cleveland-county-launches-first-time-homebuyer-assistance-program

I have been looking for rental properties over the past year and it seems like everything under $100/sf is in terrible condition. I guess that is just the new norm for OKC moving forward?

I have been looking for rental properties over the past year and it seems like everything under $100/sf is in terrible condition. I guess that is just the new norm for OKC moving forward?

Pretty much, they still exist especially the really cheap ranges sub $100k but for a reason. Consider that the median/average price per square foot now for all homes is $155/$161/ft MLS wide.

This house right down the street from me was a rental for quite a few years. The people renting it moved out about a month ago. It had a for rent sign in the yard for the last month and is now for sale. It is a perfect example of a starter house for $150K. Looks like it last sold in 3/2021 for $101K. Taxes on it last year were only $1436. In this neighborhood it will sell very fast.

https://www.zillow.com/homes/4301-N-Libby-Ave-Warr-Acres,-OK-73122_rb/22036563_zpid/?

This house by me sold on 12/31/24 for $147,750.

This house by me sold on 12/31/24 for $147,750.

The $150K to $300K range seems to get a lot of action because that's a good entry-level for most new homeowners.

This house by me sold on 12/31/24 for $147,750.

We bought our first house just south of there on NW 32nd between N Roff and Lyon in 2020 for $86k and the 2024 market value was assessed at $150k.

Lots of price cuts

There's definitely a lot of value in the market, I've had several recent closings where the buyers are getting it under appraised value + closing costs/concessions.

Mortgage rates did the opposite of what the entire world expected and shot up over 100 basis points from September once Fed starting cutting through a couple days ago which hasn't helped.

However it looks like we are finally getting a little rate relief the last couple of days on better than expected inflation data & overall market is moving better last couple months. Hopefully this will get some buyers off the sidelines.

There's definitely a lot of value in the market, I've had several recent closings where the buyers are getting it under appraised value + closing costs/concessions.

Mortgage rates did the opposite of what the entire world expected and shot up over 100 basis points from September once Fed starting cutting through a couple days ago which hasn't helped.

However it looks like we are finally getting a little rate relief the last couple of days on better than expected inflation data & overall market is moving better last couple months. Hopefully this will get some buyers off the sidelines.

OKCRealtor,

What part of the City is showing value in this market? Putnam City?

OKCRealtor,

What part of the City is showing value in this market? Putnam City?

It's pretty widespread really, I like NW OKC, Edmond/Deer Creek personally. I've seen good value in all of those areas recently. A lot depends on what you're looking for/price point.

It's just a pocket, but I still think my neighborhood bounded by NW Expressway, Penn, May, and I-44 is still one of the better bargains around (area 1 on the map below).

Things have gone way up just in the 7 years I've lived here, but the area (doesn't have a real name) is still way cheaper than Belle Isle just to the north. Tons and tons of flips, renovations and even some tear-down new construction. OAK has greatly helped but there is still such a big discrepancy between us and north of NW Ex, and prices are only going to rise and there is much more to come at OAK. The small neighborhood to the east of Penn also is quite nice with smaller homes and affordable prices. There are a lot of mid-century 1,800 SF ranch houses in both those 'hoods which lend themselves well to an open floorplan (I *love* the floorplan of my house) and you can get something nicely remodeled here for under $400K. Willing to make a few compromises on size or finishes, there are lots of options around $300K as well. Near all the best retail, grocers, quick access to the core, and convergence of several highways make it a breeze to get anywhere in the OKC Metro and in some ways one of the very best locations in the state.

Another area that has good value IMO is east of Penn, north of 39th, west of Classen and south of NW Ex (#2). Some great historical homes in there (like on Georgia Ave.) but lots of smaller houses that are being upgraded and now quite a bit of new construction.

Same is true directly south of 39th, but apart from Putnam Heights, there are still a bunch of rough patches although that is changing (#3). Ditto for west of Penn and south of 39th #4, except for the Venice area.

Mayfair West also has smaller mid-century home a lot of them have 1-car garage, often converted into more living space.

HTTP://www.okctalk.com/images/pete/valuehoods1.jpg

One thing I can say is area 2 needs more sidewalks but that is probably true many places in the metro.

One thing I can say is area 2 needs more sidewalks but that is probably true many places in the metro.

It's one of the many things I love living in area #1: sidewalks almost everywhere and connecting to OAK, Mayfair, and the 39th Street District.

The City recently added nice new walkways on either side of NW 50th, from May to OAK and Penn.

Come be my neighbor! There are several OKCTalkers here including someone I recently helped recruit who is very happy with their purchase.

It's one of the many things I love living in area #1: sidewalks almost everywhere and connecting to OAK, Mayfair, and the 39th Street District.

The City recently added nice new walkways on either side of NW 50th, from May to OAK and Penn.

Come be my neighbor! There are several OKCTalkers here including someone I recently helped recruit who is very happy with their purchase.

It's an interesting move to contemplate especially with OAK right nearby, but where I am now was such a steal I have a hard time seeing a reason to uproot at this time.

My first house I bought in 09 was between #2 & #3 - Putnam Heights Annex.

It appreciated quite a bit during the time, certainly more than some other areas. Should have kept it in hindsight but either way it made & facilitated quite a bit of money for the next house/investments since.

Those are all pretty good areas IMO, certainly some hit or miss & riff raff but there's also a lot of really cool stuff in the core or within a few miles that makes it so convenient around there.

Those are all pretty good areas IMO, certainly some hit or miss & riff raff but there's also a lot of really cool stuff in the core or within a few miles that makes it so convenient around there.

It seems all these areas offer a wide variety of relatively affordable housing; you just hope you can find a street without some derelict neighbors.

I mentioned them because they are all pretty far along in gentrification and they are pretty good places to live while getting the price benefit of not being a 'better' neighborhood like Belle Isle. I just love this area of town. I can be almost anywhere in 10 minutes and all the best grocers and shopping (PSM, Classen Curve, OAK) are very nearby. And generally speaking, it's all pretty walkable (at least by non-core OKC standards).

I personally prefer mid-century ranches because they can easily be opened up and have attached garages and big yards. Older homes always have small rooms, often with a big staircase in the middle and the only way to get to the backyard is through some weird door far removed from the living areas or worse yet, through a bedroom. I really love the charm of older homes but to me there are too many sacrifices for similarly-priced homes.

It's why I bought here when I did, and my house appreciation has rewarded my original assessment of the area.

It seems all these areas offer a wide variety of relatively affordable housing; you just hope you can find a street without some derelict neighbors.

I mentioned them because they are all pretty far along in gentrification and they are pretty good places to live while getting the price benefit of not being a 'better' neighborhood like Belle Isle. I just love this area of town. I can be almost anywhere in 10 minutes and all the best grocers and shopping (PSM, Classen Curve, OAK) are very nearby. And generally speaking, it's all pretty walkable (at least by non-core OKC standards).

I personally prefer mid-century ranches because they can easily be opened up and have attached garages and big yards. Older homes always have small rooms, often with a big staircase in the middle and the only way to get to the backyard is through some weird door far removed from the living areas or worse yet, through a bedroom. I really love the charm of older homes but to me there are too many sacrifices for similarly-priced homes.

It's why I bought here when I did, and my house appreciation has rewarded my original assessment of the area.

Yea I agree with all of that, I still miss living in the area occasionally for those reasons and more. I was in my early 20's in 09 when I bought in Putnam Heights and things were just starting to come along at the time & I was pretty sure it would be a good area for growth/appreciation. It has of course exploded over the last 15 years and keeps going. I feel the same way about the area today.

There's definitely a lot of value in the market, I've had several recent closings where the buyers are getting it under appraised value + closing costs/concessions.

Mortgage rates did the opposite of what the entire world expected and shot up over 100 basis points from September once Fed starting cutting through a couple days ago which hasn't helped.

However it looks like we are finally getting a little rate relief the last couple of days on better than expected inflation data & overall market is moving better last couple months. Hopefully this will get some buyers off the sidelines. Just curious, do you get lots of buyers that are relocating to OKC from other places, or are the majority of buyers local or from all over the State? I am guessing a little bit of both.

Just curious, do you get lots of buyers that are relocating to OKC from other places, or are the majority of buyers local or from all over the State? I am guessing a little bit of both.

Some of both, we are still getting folks moving from out of state & also TX I've noticed more of last couple of years. It doesn't seem to be as much as few years ago post covid but definitely still quite a few relocations. We compete with Tulsa some for out of state buyers I've noticed.

My business last couple years has transitioned to more past client & referral nature which is mostly local and partially due to time and past success in the business but also there's just a lot less buyers out there right now than normal times. Quite frankly real estate sales as a whole have been in a significant recession for basically 3 years now.

Last year was the lowest number of transactions since 95 (really saying something considering great recession) and if you look back at population increase over the decades we are at the lowest % of people in the history of the country that are transacting right now. That said to answer your original questions there's still a decent amount of out of staters coming in. People aren't going to quit leaving CA I don't think.

How are OKC and Tulsa competing? Remote workers?

How are OKC and Tulsa competing? Remote workers?

Out of state investors for one, some investors look at both markets & occasionally Tulsa wins out. Tulsa has incentives to move there as well, little bit lower housing/COL (also lower growth but sometimes it's just about the $$) , so if you're remote or not tied to a particular area Tulsa siphons off a little of what would be people in the OKC market.