So, please compare cost per ft increases. The median sizes also inflate. Needs to compare actual cost increases apples to apples. Sizes have increased, features have increased, etc.

I was talking with my wife about this the other day. We recently went from an 800 sq ft Chicago bungalow house to a 2100 sq ft ranch style home with both being just a few years apart in years built and minimal updates since then yet the differences in amenities are stark to say the least.

I was talking with my wife about this the other day. We recently went from an 800 sq ft Chicago bungalow house to a 2100 sq ft ranch style home with both being just a few years apart in years built and minimal updates since then yet the differences in amenities are stark to say the least.

I did a survey of friends about 20 years ago -- got about 50 responses.

I asked the SF of their present home and the number of people living there, vs. the same numbers from their youth.

The results showed that on average, people were now living in 4x the square footage per person -- in a single generation.


I never realized how small my childhood home was until I looked it up on the county assessor. It was about 1,600 SF and there were 7 of us. And nobody I knew back then in the upper-middle-class Putnam City schools had a home over 2,000 SF and obviously, families were bigger and often much bigger back then.

My current modest home is only about 1,800 SF but I live alone. So my ratio has increased by more than 7-fold.

What was the typical bedroom-sharing situation like?

What was the typical bedroom-sharing situation like?

When I was growing up, almost every kid shared a bedroom until an older sibling moved out of the house.

Interesting.

https://journalrecord.com/2023/09/22/august-apartment-rent-spike-in-okc-tops-in-us-metros/

* growing up, shared a bedroom with a brother and often 2, when relatives came to visit.

So, please compare cost per ft increases. The median sizes also inflate. Needs to compare actual cost increases apples to apples. Sizes have increased, features have increased, etc.

Because that is what the two income family's demand. Starter 800 s.f. home are not built in OKC anymore. If these products existed there would still be a significant increase in the cost of a house compared to the average salary per person because there has been a focus on more people going into college and less people producing tangible assets.

Because that is what the two income family's demand. Starter 800 s.f. home are not built in OKC anymore. If these products existed there would still be a significant increase in the cost of a house compared to the average salary per person because there has been a focus on more people going into college and less people producing tangible assets.

The market became all kinds of messed up when the DR Horton junk homes starting selling for 280k +.

Interest rates were high, but the cost of things like houses, college tuition, and cars were lower than they are now relatively speaking.

Even back in 2007 when we bought our house, we paid 6.875 on a 30 year mortgage but the cost of the house was $80/sf for a fixer upper in an area in the urban core of OKC. Now, we have a house one street over that is $187/sf but it is move in ready. Our car rate was 5.99 and 5.49, but we bought a new Honda Accord (standard) for $17,000. Now, a new bare bones Honda accord goes for close to $30,000 with a rate of around 5%. My wife had student loans from 2004-2006 totaling $20,000 and her rate was 1% on all of them.

$10,000 for a place in this neighborhood seems way too low. There are vacant lots for sale nearby for $175k

Any property sleuths out there?

It shows it was bought by Kevin calvey, who when I searched is a county commissioner
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kevin_Calvey

620 nw 18th st

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/620-NW-18th-St-Oklahoma-City-OK-73103/21847122_zpid/

$10,000 for a place in this neighborhood seems way too low. There are vacant lots for sale nearby for $175k

Any property sleuths out there?

It shows it was bought by Kevin calvey, who when I searched is a county commissioner
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kevin_Calvey

620 nw 18th st

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/620-NW-18th-St-Oklahoma-City-OK-73103/21847122_zpid/

Hmmm. This doesn't pass the smell test. Super weird.

$10,000 for a place in this neighborhood seems way too low. There are vacant lots for sale nearby for $175k

Any property sleuths out there?

It shows it was bought by Kevin calvey, who when I searched is a county commissioner
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kevin_Calvey

620 nw 18th st

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/620-NW-18th-St-Oklahoma-City-OK-73103/21847122_zpid/

$200k in September per County Assessor. The $10k transaction is likely just some sort of inter-familial transfer, I'd bet.

Sheriff sale?

Sheriff sale?

No shot the land is worth probably $100k.

No shot the land is worth probably $100k.

The land is worth closer to $250k

There is a vacant lot 2 blocks north of this property currently for sale for $175k
and its only 2,100 square feet.

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/2109-N-Lee-Ave-Oklahoma-City-OK-73103/2057318911_zpid/

The $10,000 sale was via Personal Representative's Deed and the owner was deceased. Calvey turned around and sold the property for $150,000 90 days later. Then it was sold again for $200,000 60 days later.

Thought I'd update with fresh market stats - we are in some interesting times with the 30 year rate set to cross over 8% anytime now.

Average sales price has come down quite a bit the last 2 months from $260k-->$241k now ($15k drop in September alone)

Median days & average days on the market both slightly higher at 13 & 33 days.

We have more homes on the market than at any point since November 2018.

Yet the market is still quite hot below 250k as a whole. If you're a cash buyer/investor waiting for a dip we are in it now. It's all about the direction of rates from here.

Thought I'd update with fresh market stats - we are in some interesting times with the 30 year rate set to cross over 8% anytime now.

Average sales price has come down quite a bit the last 2 months from $260k-->$241k now ($15k drop in September alone)

Median days & average days on the market both slightly higher at 13 & 33 days.

We have more homes on the market than at any point since November 2018.

Yet the market is still quite hot below 250k as a whole. If you're a cash buyer/investor waiting for a dip we are in it now. It's all about the direction of rates from here.

Another interesting tidbit is that roughly 20% of homes for sale in the metro area have had to decrease their prices.

Another interesting tidbit is that roughly 20% of homes for sale in the metro area have had to decrease their prices.

Yes we've had a lot of price decreases to be sure.

We're also seeing more homes come on the market vs going pending some weeks now which has allowed the inventory to creep up. It's been a very long time except recent weeks that has occurred.

Hope the rates come down but it's nice to see prices starting to cool a bit. It's been pretty crazy the last three years.

Almost a third of our actives are New Builds. Thought that was pretty intersting.

Almost a third of our actives are New Builds. Thought that was pretty intersting.

Agreed, it will be interesting to see what the builders do from here.

For the realtors out there, I have noticed something I wanted to get your thoughts on: On Zillow (I know, I know, most realtors hate zillow), I would see a property go on the market and then I wouldn't see it anymore. I assumed it sold. It turns out, the price was dropped once and then the listing was removed. Then, about 30 days later, it was put back on the market. What is the purpose behind that? Is it to get fresh eyes on it and not look like it has been on the market for 90 days?

^that's pretty much what is happening... most often, a realtor will re-list a "stale" property so that it doesn't look as if it has sat for an extended period. there are other possibilities, though. sometimes a property doesn't sell and the owner re-lists with another realtor. sometimes the owner will have something happen in their lives and they choose to "pause" the listing. sometimes a property doesn't sell and is re-listed after having work done to make it more marketable.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/homes-for-sale-affordable-housing-prices/

I’m an idiot when it comes to mortgage rates and financing, especially since I have, in my adulthood, been a lifelong renter. Being bored with a place or always thinking I would take off to another state kept me from buying. I got close once in 2007 but the home price per month went from 900 to 1300 at closing and we changed our mind.
The question is this, why are mortgage rates increasing and how will they come down? Figured I would ask here instead of googling.

For the realtors out there, I have noticed something I wanted to get your thoughts on: On Zillow (I know, I know, most realtors hate zillow), I would see a property go on the market and then I wouldn't see it anymore. I assumed it sold. It turns out, the price was dropped once and then the listing was removed. Then, about 30 days later, it was put back on the market. What is the purpose behind that? Is it to get fresh eyes on it and not look like it has been on the market for 90 days?

That's basically what's happening. Just to reset the Days on Market (DOM) and resend it out. That being said, buyers are very smart now, and most go down and look at the price history. They see when agents do that and then start to ask questions. I don't like when it's done but some would probably disagree with me.

I’m an idiot when it comes to mortgage rates and financing, especially since I have, in my adulthood, been a lifelong renter. Being bored with a place or always thinking I would take off to another state kept me from buying. I got close once in 2007 but the home price per month went from 900 to 1300 at closing and we changed our mind.
The question is this, why are mortgage rates increasing and how will they come down? Figured I would ask here instead of googling.

Mortgage rates are increasing because fed funds are increasing. Fed funds are increasing to slow inflation in the market and attempt to return prices for goods and services to a normal level (or not increase more). I work in banking and have heard we will see one more rate increase by year end (probably November) and that should be it for the foreseeable future. I have heard we may see a few decreases toward the end of next year, if things stay the way that they are. Here is a good US News and World Report article talking about what they thought was going to happen and what actually happened: https://money.usnews.com/loans/mortgages/mortgage-rate-forecast#:~:text=The%20mortgage%20giant%20doesn%27 t,2023%20and%206.3%25%20in%202024.

I was listening to NPR earlier this year and they had an economist on that stated the result of rate increases won't be completely felt by the general public until 12-14 months after the increase. For example: 13 months ago, prime rate was at 6.25%, now it is at 8.50%. 12 months from now, we will be feeling the effects of the last increase of July 2023.

I think home prices will continue to drop on average but there are good deals out there to be had. I'd say most homes are still overpriced though.

By my calculation at the current interest rate the overall cost of a house needs to fall 30% before I would enter the market.

Anyone know about how the Edmond market is doing? Also what about land prices and is land selling? thanks

My understanding is that anything under $300,000 is still moving, just at a slightly slower pace. Everything above is sitting for longer unless it is in a place like Heritage Hills or Nichols Hills.

https://unusualwhales.com/news/the-monthly-cost-of-a-new-mortgage-is-now-42-of-u-s-median-household-income-10-higher-than-on-the-eve-of-the-2008-housing-crash?fbclid=IwAR25xoq2Q4emNPj4NQb8RHyy--Io2-nTmhoUSAGvZ1NDw8wkKDinbSsLKUY I don't see it getting better anytime soon at all.

Nope. Rates are hanging out pretty high for a while. I work in banking and we could see a commercial real estate issue in the next couple of years. The reason I say that is back in 2020 and 2021 when rates were at an all time low, a lot of people refinanced their commercial properties on 3, 5 or 7 year notes. For all the banks I talked to, most said they were locking for five years, max. So, all of those properties are going to come up for maturity and properties that were fixed for five years at 4% are now going to go to 7% or higher. For comparison, a $500K property on a 20 year term at 4% is paying around $3,000 per month, not including T&I. The same property at $450K on 15 years at 7% is paying $4,500 per month, about 50% more. I assume we will also see tenants moving as landlords start raising rates more due to their rate going up and potentially more properties going on the market due to landlords not being able to afford the monthly payment any more. Could happen in the residential rental real estate market as well.

https://www.investopedia.com/30-year-mortgage-rates-spike-to-another-record-high-8349423 I was offered a job in another city. Slightly lower pay but better hours. No way I can go from a 2.85% rate to over 8% rate with slightly lower pay of about $3 a hour. I could if my mortgage was the same but I don't see that happening. Yeah I would love daytime hours vs my evening hours but no way I could afford to move.

God man, imagine not locking on the dip thinking it will go even lower and waking up 2 days later and it has jumped 0.5% and you have to lock.

This all has me worried. I have a 10 ac property with a smaller home on the east side of I 35 (Edmond) The area is developing quickly into small lot subdivisions. The land next to me is up for sale and most likely will go for development. I am looking to move out of state to a little more rural area and buy a little large home a bit less land. (no mortgage involved) Its just not much for sale at the location I am looking around. ugh. I am hoping I will be able to sell at a decent price and find something that I like to buy.

This all has me worried. I have a 10 ac property with a smaller home on the east side of I 35 (Edmond) The area is developing quickly into small lot subdivisions. The land next to me is up for sale and most likely will go for development. I am looking to move out of state to a little more rural area and buy a little large home a bit less land. (no mortgage involved) Its just not much for sale at the location I am looking around. ugh. I am hoping I will be able to sell at a decent price and find something that I like to buy.

Hold out. Eventually they will come knocking on your door with an offer you can't refuse.

Fed doesn't see inflation getting back to the 2% target range until 2026 now. All I can think of is "Transitory" in 2021 when everyone and their dog knew things were overheated except the most brilliant financial minds in the world. I still think we are likely to get another hike or 2 (inflation trending higher again last 2 months) but hopefully not. Bond Yields have screamed high enough. Anyone expecting cuts next year or even the year after is just wishful thinking at this point. Unless they trigger a recession and are forced too, certainly still a possibility there.

Fed doesn't see inflation getting back to the 2% target range until 2026 now. All I can think of is "Transitory" in 2021 when everyone and their dog knew things were overheated except the most brilliant financial minds in the world. I still think we are likely to get another hike or 2 (inflation trending higher again last 2 months) but hopefully not. Bond Yields have screamed high enough. Anyone expecting cuts next year or even the year after is just wishful thinking at this point. Unless they trigger a recession and are forced too, certainly still a possibility there.

Do you think they rates can get up to 10% like some are thinking?

Fed doesn't see inflation getting back to the 2% target range until 2026 now. All I can think of is "Transitory" in 2021 when everyone and their dog knew things were overheated except the most brilliant financial minds in the world. I still think we are likely to get another hike or 2 (inflation trending higher again last 2 months) but hopefully not. Bond Yields have screamed high enough. Anyone expecting cuts next year or even the year after is just wishful thinking at this point. Unless they trigger a recession and are forced too, certainly still a possibility there.

Oh, they most definitely knew.

Do you think they rates can get up to 10% like some are thinking?

I think it's certainly possible- we are already seeing a lot of 8's depending upon the type & term of loans. I think it depends upon how committed the Fed is to getting back to 2% and how far they are willing to go to get there i.e. force a recession. It seems pretty clear that even at these levels rates are not high enough to get inflation much lower and will take a very long time.

Oh, they most definitely knew.

100 %. It's all a big game they're playing with the American people.

As one who did have a FHA loan with a 10.5% rate in 1981, anything can happen. I am not an expert but the way the world is going right now, who knows.

I think it's certainly possible- we are already seeing a lot of 8's depending upon the type & term of loans. I think it depends upon how committed the Fed is to getting back to 2% and how far they are willing to go to get there i.e. force a recession. It seems pretty clear that even at these levels rates are not high enough to get inflation much lower and will take a very long time.


100 %. It's all a big game they're playing with the American people.

I suspect that they needed to introduce a higher inflation rate into the mix that help with the debt to GDP ratio. While we can't inflate our way out of debt, we do need some and it prevented the pandemic from completely wiping out the middle class.

I could imagine that people not moving in and out of mortgages as they have in the past has not helped create a more stable economy. Having a population that stays in their sub-3% mortgages as wages increase will hopefully help them spend more on quality American made products. It would be nice to see people do more renovations and home additions to keep their cheap mortgages intact. This could bolster a higher quality of economic output.

I suspect that they needed to introduce a higher inflation rate into the mix that help with the debt to GDP ratio. While we can't inflate our way out of debt, we do need some and it prevented the pandemic from completely wiping out the middle class.

I could imagine that people not moving in and out of mortgages as they have in the past has not helped create a more stable economy. Having a population that stays in their sub-3% mortgages as wages increase will hopefully help them spend more on quality American made products. It would be nice to see people do more renovations and home additions to keep their cheap mortgages intact. This could bolster a higher quality of economic output.

Yea the low rates saved us initially to be sure, and then things got out of hand pretty quickly as far as the market shift on supply/demand. A multitude of factors from there took us through last year basically. I remember telling people to invest their stimulus money because we'd get to pay it back many fold in the future and thought rates should have been raised far sooner.

As far as your second point we'll certainly see that to some degree over the next couple years at least. The thing about the market now is that people want and have to sell/buy sometimes and can't now. This may create bigger issues long term not to mention the commercial bubble could be a very real threat.

The really interesting thing about it all to me is that rent prices are the main driver of the CPI increases and while they have been and continue to speculate those will ease I'm just not so sure. Ironically pricing out a ton of people from the market all together forces them to continue renting. Couple in constricted new construction supply and it's hard to see it going down. More than anything probably area to area specific now that things have shifted. It seems like OKC & Tulsa both doing great overall despite the rates. Sure things a touch slower but there's still a lot of activity and sales despite the rates. Seems like were going to have both a strong economy and high rates for awhile until something gives.

It seems to me the correction from rate raising is lagging about 12 months. I am really concerned what it will look like in a year from now... Inflation should be dropping, but you can't predict the future. Definitely a delicate balance, and they haven't been doing a super good job at it, but they haven't forced a recession yet.

It seems that 8% mark is a redline for people. It feels (no data yet, for me) that people have just stopped buying unless they have a huge down payment or 100% cash. With the demand for housing still here, but not being affordable, where does this put builders? Obviously concessions, but are they considering financing for 5 years? I think this is going to really shift the dynamic how new houses are sold/financed.

I live east of I35 in Edmond. This past week a builder just dozed off 80 ac of all the trees. Another addition just paved the streets and another still has houses going up. This is in just a 2 mile area on the state mile section rd. It doesnt look to be stopping but maybe slowing down a bit. I dont know maybe Edmond is a bit different. My 3 cents. My neck of the woods its getting a bit crowded for me. I am glad I am sitting on my 10 ac with my wild turkeys and other wild life coming to find shelter.

It seems to me the correction from rate raising is lagging about 12 months. I am really concerned what it will look like in a year from now... Inflation should be dropping, but you can't predict the future. Definitely a delicate balance, and they haven't been doing a super good job at it, but they haven't forced a recession yet.

It seems that 8% mark is a redline for people. It feels (no data yet, for me) that people have just stopped buying unless they have a huge down payment or 100% cash. With the demand for housing still here, but not being affordable, where does this put builders? Obviously concessions, but are they considering financing for 5 years? I think this is going to really shift the dynamic how new houses are sold/financed.

I remember in the mid-1990s when people were refinancing their mortgages when they fell to............8 percent! Crazy to think about now.

https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1714357684999164091?s=20 10% coming? Sounds like it's not getting better anytime soon.

https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1714357684999164091?s=20 10% coming? Sounds like it's not getting better anytime soon.
With the last jobs report exploding the way it did. I don’t think 9% is on another planet.

Well we just hit 8% https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1714679294742409379?s=20 As far a jobs go more people are working two jobs more than ever before. Labor market is about to crash also? https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1714316771342131475?s=20

Well we just hit 8% https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1714679294742409379?s=20 As far a jobs go more people are working two jobs more than ever before. Labor market is about to crash also? https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1714316771342131475?s=20

ThatÂ’s not a legitimate economic Forum/institute or organization. This Letter is an opinion(political) site. We absolutely need a labor market downturn. Unemployment is way too low. ItÂ’s called the Phillips curve in economics look it up. My salary has increased 45% from 3.5 years ago. Err 4 years ago. But prices are high because everyone has money.what that site doesnÂ’t tell you is gas is expensive because I have an F250 super duty so I complain about $3.10-3.30/a gallon. Never mind the fact I chose a suped 4x4 with a 7 liter engine. IÂ’d love to refinance my house but a decade plus of fiscal irresponsibility on the part of the Fed is going to prevent that for a few years

The 30 year officially crossed the 8% mark today which is the highest since 2000 and mortgage demand is at it's lowest since '95. Yet we still have a really strong labor market. One must crash before the other?

I smell opportunity. Everyone waiting for the dip- it's here. Next 3-6 months will be critical. I feel like things are probably pretty close to a tipping point here.

ThatÂ’s not a legitimate economic Forum/institute or organization. This Letter is an opinion(political) site. We absolutely need a labor market downturn. Unemployment is way too low. ItÂ’s called the Phillips curve in economics look it up. My salary has increased 45% from 3.5 years ago. Err 4 years ago. But prices are high because everyone has money.what that site doesnÂ’t tell you is gas is expensive because I have an F250 super duty so I complain about $3.10-3.30/a gallon. Never mind the fact I chose a suped 4x4 with a 7 liter engine. IÂ’d love to refinance my house but a decade plus of fiscal irresponsibility on the part of the Fed is going to prevent that for a few years

Kobeissi is 22 years old, a couple years out of university. I value real world experience when seeking financial advice. Just sayin'.

The 30 year officially crossed the 8% mark today which is the highest since 2000 and mortgage demand is at it's lowest since '95. Yet we still have a really strong labor market. One must crash before the other?

I smell opportunity. Everyone waiting for the dip- it's here. Next 3-6 months will be critical. I feel like things are probably pretty close to a tipping point here.

there are 1.4 mil less people working today then in 2020

there are 1.4 mil less people working today then in 2020

Yes we had a pandemic and multiple years of declining birth rates and life expectancy, that will happen.

ThatÂ’s not a legitimate economic Forum/institute or organization. This Letter is an opinion(political) site. We absolutely need a labor market downturn. Unemployment is way too low. ItÂ’s called the Phillips curve in economics look it up. My salary has increased 45% from 3.5 years ago. Err 4 years ago. But prices are high because everyone has money.what that site doesnÂ’t tell you is gas is expensive because I have an F250 super duty so I complain about $3.10-3.30/a gallon. Never mind the fact I chose a suped 4x4 with a 7 liter engine. IÂ’d love to refinance my house but a decade plus of fiscal irresponsibility on the part of the Fed is going to prevent that for a few years
Wow. That give of a salary increase. Those of us retired on any of the state pension systems have received just 4% over the last 14 yrs. Have money to spend, not for us and some of us dont get much ss since we have the state pension. ugh. Inflation has eaten up our pensions.

Yes we had a pandemic and multiple years of declining birth rates and life expectancy, that will happen.

Also 1.2 million unexpected EXTRA deaths from COVID in the US alone.

ThatÂ’s not a legitimate economic Forum/institute or organization. This Letter is an opinion(political) site. We absolutely need a labor market downturn. Unemployment is way too low. ItÂ’s called the Phillips curve in economics look it up. My salary has increased 45% from 3.5 years ago. Err 4 years ago. But prices are high because everyone has money.what that site doesnÂ’t tell you is gas is expensive because I have an F250 super duty so I complain about $3.10-3.30/a gallon. Never mind the fact I chose a suped 4x4 with a 7 liter engine. IÂ’d love to refinance my house but a decade plus of fiscal irresponsibility on the part of the Fed is going to prevent that for a few years

Does it matter if they are legitimate or not when facts are fact? The fact is WE IN TROUBLE and something is going to have to break.

Wow. That give of a salary increase. Those of us retired on any of the state pension systems have received just 4% over the last 14 yrs. Have money to spend, not for us and some of us dont get much ss since we have the state pension. ugh. Inflation has eaten up our pensions.

Yeah the state pension blows on the federal level. I think mine would be 600/month today if I retired. I expect SS to be gone by my retirement or shortly after. ., 15-20 if I’m lucky. The TSP fund we have seems reliable but I’m not a gambler

Does it matter if they are legitimate or not when facts are fact?

Wut?