This is why California law usually dictates what auto manufactures do for the entire country. We saw this with California's emission standards for ICE vehicles. The zero emission new car sales law in California will no doubt influence what automakers invest in and it will have an effect on the entire country with regards to what new cars are available to buy in 2035 and beyond.

I often tell the story of visiting Los Angeles for the first time in 1981. The smog was shockingly thick and there were frequent alerts on the radio.

When I moved there in 1990, the smog had almost completely disappeared and I can't remember a single smog alert in my 25 years on the West Coast.


It's become popular to hate on California, ironically through technology, a piece of software, and on a phone or computer literally invented there. But they have always been ahead of the curve when it comes to innovation and just finding a better way and most of the country and world has been following their lead for a long time.

On a side note, I believe the Cell Phone was invented in NYC and the Smartphone in Atlanta, but I'm open to being wrong on that.

On a side note, I believe the Cell Phone was invented in NYC and the Smartphone in Atlanta, but I'm open to being wrong on that.

I think there are a lot of pieces of technology developed around the country (first Microchip was in Texas, first graphical web browser was built in Illinois, etc) it's fair to give California/Silicon Valley credit for developing these into mainstream technologies and for the digital transformation and growth over the past 30 years.

My good friend in Iowa would be angry if I didn't mention the worlds first "electronic digital computer" was built on the Iowa State campus.

I think grievance with the way cars are made and sold today has led to a utopian vision of the future of EVs.

Such as--

They will never break or cost money to maintain. Since engines and transmissions won't wear out, we can keep one 30 to 40 years.

Car dealers are crooks, but the factory will provide a perfect, low cost system that will always look out for us as buyers and never overcharge or take advantage of us.

If they prevent us from buying parts or working on our own cars, it is for our own protection.

^

It's about progress and improvement, not perfection.

Everyone realizes the journey won't be perfect but it sure helps to visualize where you are trying to go.

Time will tell what the futute of EVs are but I'll go out on a limb and say this. When an EV gets a consistent 600 mile range and I can recharge it from 0% to 100% in less than 10 minutes I'll consider buying one.


It takes 10 minutes to fill my car with gas and I get ~320 miles of range for a full tank. Why would an electric vehicle need twice that range for you to consider buying one?

According to J.D. Powers, Tesla reliability is at the bottom of manufactured vehicles. I'll stick with my Honda for the coming years. Body panels with gaps, limited service outlets, a questionable mercurial owner, etc.


https://www.jdpower.com/business/press-releases/2023-us-vehicle-dependability-studyvds

According to J.D. Powers, Tesla reliability is at the bottom of manufactured vehicles. I'll stick with my Honda for the for the coming years. Body panels with gaps, limited service outlets, a questionable owner, etc.


https://www.jdpower.com/business/press-releases/2023-us-vehicle-dependability-studyvds

I've never been a fan of Tesla vehicles but just today I read an article that said their current models have dramatically improved on the build issues.

But Kia/Hundai/Genesis has some great EVs that all get very high marks including quality of build, as do most that come from the legacy manufacturers.


Of everything out and about to come out in the next couple of years, I would lean towards the Audi A6 e-tron right now:

https://www.caranddriver.com/audi/a6-e-tron

It takes 10 minutes to fill my car with gas and I get ~320 miles of range for a full tank. Why would an electric vehicle need twice that range for you to consider buying one?

I was just comparing it to my car. My BMW gets a little over 40 mpg on the highway. On a recent trip from Jax to OKC I stopped for gas in Birmingham, AL and a second time around Ozark, AR. Since I was by myself the stop consisted gas, bathroom, and hotdog. On and off the interstate in less than 20 minutes.

According to J.D. Powers, Tesla reliability is at the bottom of manufactured vehicles. I'll stick with my Honda for the coming years. Body panels with gaps, limited service outlets, a questionable mercurial owner, etc.


https://www.jdpower.com/business/press-releases/2023-us-vehicle-dependability-studyvds

I just purchased a Tesla Model Y Performance and it was perfect. It was manufactured in Fremont and shipped here. I have had a lot of performance cars and the Tesla puts them all to shame. Simply amazing. I've had cars with big blocks, small blocks, nitrous, superchargers and the Tesla is faster than everyone of them, and I don't even have the Plaid. Mine will do 0-60 in 3.5 seconds and the quarter mile in high 11's. Everyone that checks mine out wants one including my 80 year old Dad. One neighbor already got theirs. For most, it has plenty of range. Mine is advertised at over 300 miles of range but I think a realistic number is around 225 which is plenty for my wife. I still drive a gas SUV so we'd just take that if at all concerned. The key is the ability to charge at home. If you're dependent on public chargers then don't bother. It's no different than plugging in your phone at night.

I have a friend that owns a foreign auto repair shop and he's shocked how fast EV's have entered the mainstream. He's now starting to think about how he could start learning how to service them in the future for his business.

Just for fun. In what year does EV sales exceed ICE sales in the US?

We should start small. Like when does EV sales make up 25% of new sales. 25% is when auto manufactures really start putting demand pressure on the inputs used to make electric vehicles. The speed of battery development is what will dictate how fast EV's become mainstream. Not to mention we need to figure out how to make batteries lighter. Our roads will start feeling the effects of these heavier vehicles when they make up a greater market share.

We should start small. Like when does EV sales make up 25% of new sales. 25% is when auto manufactures really start putting demand pressure on the inputs used to make electric vehicles. The speed of battery development is what will dictate how fast EV's become mainstream. Not to mention we need to figure out how to make batteries lighter. Our roads will start feeling the effects of these heavier vehicles when they make up a greater market share.I searched "EV percent of sales in US". a USDOE article said EV sales increased 85% from 2020 to 2021. An Autoweek article said in 2022 EV sales accounted for 4.6% of new car sales. That makes sense considering the previous percentage of car sales that California makes up as mentioned earlier.

I searched "EV percent of sales in US". a USDOE article said EV sales increased 85% from 2020 to 2021. An Autoweek article said in 2022 EV sales accounted for 4.6% of new car sales. That makes sense considering the previous percentage of car sales that California makes up as mentioned earlier.

According to the Wall Street Journal, in 2022, EVs made up 10% of all new car sales.
EVs Made Up 10% of All New Cars Sold Last Year - WSJ (https://www.wsj.com/articles/evs-made-up-10-of-all-new-cars-sold-last-year-11673818385)

According to the Wall Street Journal, in 2022, EVs made up 10% of all new car sales.
EVs Made Up 10% of All New Cars Sold Last Year - WSJ (https://www.wsj.com/articles/evs-made-up-10-of-all-new-cars-sold-last-year-11673818385)

That's a fairly impressive number considering it's world-wide. The US is going to get left behind if we don't step up.

That's a fairly impressive number considering it's world-wide. The US is going to get left behind if we don't step up.

being slower to adopt EV's will be a positive for the USA not a negative ..

How about the Dodge Demon 170 coming out - 1025 HP. Gonna miss the HP wars. EV's might be fast but they're also soul less and can't do much other than accelerate in a straight line. Personally if I'm buying a sports car I want my ass to rumble from the engine & drivetrain. There are plenty of car enthusiasts who feel the same way. That said it will be exciting to see what comes out in the next few years as things progress but I'm personally nowhere close to switching. If I had to pick between a BMW M5 for example vs a Tesla Plaid would go M5 all day every day even though it's not as fast in a straight line. Hell of a lot more fun to drive all the way around.

How about the Dodge Demon 170 coming out - 1025 HP. Gonna miss the HP wars. EV's might be fast but they're also soul less and can't do much other than accelerate in a straight line. Personally if I'm buying a sports car I want my ass to rumble from the engine & drivetrain. There are plenty of car enthusiasts who feel the same way. That said it will be exciting to see what comes out in the next few years as things progress but I'm personally nowhere close to switching. If I had to pick between a BMW M5 for example vs a Tesla Plaid would go M5 all day every day even though it's not as fast in a straight line. Hell of a lot more fun to drive all the way around.

What makes it more fun to drive? EVs on average should also handle better due to the low center of gravity.

How about the Dodge Demon 170 coming out - 1025 HP. Gonna miss the HP wars. EV's might be fast but they're also soul less and can't do much other than accelerate in a straight line. Personally if I'm buying a sports car I want my ass to rumble from the engine & drivetrain. There are plenty of car enthusiasts who feel the same way. That said it will be exciting to see what comes out in the next few years as things progress but I'm personally nowhere close to switching. If I had to pick between a BMW M5 for example vs a Tesla Plaid would go M5 all day every day even though it's not as fast in a straight line. Hell of a lot more fun to drive all the way around.
I agree. EVs are soulless and though they can be fun to drive I just don’t feel connected to the road and track like I do with ICE cars.

I agree. EVs are soulless and though they can be fun to drive I just don’t feel connected to the road and track like I do with ICE cars.

Enjoy them while you can. I bet by 2035, ICEs will be disappearing.

Enjoy them while you can. I bet by 2035, ICEs will be disappearing.

I might be interested in taking that bet. Define 'disappearing'.

https://ww2.motorists.org/blog/auto-executives-are-less-confident-in-ev-adoption/

What makes it more fun to drive? EVs on average should also handle better due to the low center of gravity.

The entire driving experience. A Tesla feels very "cold" so to speak. It's a giant computer. Now the new Corvette E-Ray and some of the other electric cars coming from the German manufacturers & super car makers, can't wait. I'm sure they'll change things entirely.

Speed isn't everything. At lunch today a new Corvette pulled up next to me and wanted to race. There was no way I was going to win so I didn't even try. When the light turned green he floored it and was gone. At the next stop light I pulled up next to him again, hit the button to open my convertible top, smiled, waved, and made a slow right turn at the light.

Enjoy them while you can. I bet by 2035, ICEs will be disappearing.
I do. My primary source of travel now is public transportation but I enjoy my drives. I have several cars my favorite is my 124 Abarth(finally got my first sports car). I wanna get a high end sports car if I can make enough money in time but I don’t think I will. :/// Rentals it is for now haha

Some people may feel - and rightly so, to their point of view - that certain types of cars are more “fun” to drive. I just don’t think the average person really cares about that. The average person is not a car enthusiast. They will do what makes sense in the moment. They’ll have maybe one more ICE car and when the world changes, they will change.

The only thing that bothers me about electric vehicles is imagining what Oklahoma City looks like in a world where gasoline usage is half of what it is now.

^

The rate at which we are building very large gas stations is concerning. Think about all the new places either recently built or planned by OnCue, 7-Eleven, Caseys, Loves, Domino, QuikTrip, eExpress, and several others. It's staggering.

I sure hope they have plans to make the move to electric charging but it seems it will be more likely done at grocery stores and places of work or coffee shops, since stopping to charge is likely going to take longer, at least for a while. And of course, most people are going to charge at home.

I've said before that all these new c-stores should include an area that could become more of a lounge where people could spend more time. Today, even the nicer ones have little more than some cheap tables and chairs and loud title floors.

I just read Walgreens is planning a big push into charging stations and you have to know other retailers and restaurants will likely follow suit, as it would provide them with a captive buying audience.

It seems no matter what, traditional gas stations will be needed less in the near future yet in OKC they are being built at an ever-increasing rate.

The good news is, at the rate the government keeps getting in its own way, most of this forum won't be alive to see what that version of OKC looks like.

Only slightly being serious, but the IRS credit is a farce, and most EVs won't be eligible, and may never be eligible for it. States can want to be ICE free by whatever date they want, but until it becomes more affordable to make them, thus more affordable for consumers to buy, they are facing an uphill battle. This will end when more plants come on-line, but we are talking 20 to 30 years before there truly are large quantities of affordable EVs on the market. Just my opinion, and I hope to be wrong.

^

The rate at which we are building very large gas stations is concerning. Think about all the new places either recently built or planned by OnCue, 7-Eleven, Caseys, Loves, Domino, QuikTrip, eExpress, and several others. It's staggering.

I sure hope they have plans to make the move to electric charging but it seems it will be more likely done at grocery stores and places of work or coffee shops, since stopping to charge is likely going to take longer, at least for a while. And of course, most people are going to charge at home.

I've said before that all these new c-stores should include an area that could become more of a lounge where people could spend more time. Today, even the nicer ones have little more than some cheap tables and chairs and loud title floors.

I just read Walgreens is planning a big push into charging stations and you have to know other retailers and restaurants will likely follow suit, as it would provide them with a captive buying audience.

It seems no matter what, traditional gas stations will be needed less in the near future yet in OKC they are being built at an ever-increasing rate.

my guess is that ICE vechiles will make up the huge majority of vehicles in Oklahoma for a long long period of time ..

^

There are already a bunch of affordable EVs. As it stands, they are slightly more expensive than ICE counterparts but pretty equal to plug-in hybrids and we are still in the infancy of innovation.

Oil states like Oklahoma will be the slowest to adopt, just like Europe is well ahead of the U.S.

I stand by my comparison to SUVs and huge trucks. As recently as 30 years ago you rarely saw either and now they represent 80% of new vehicle sales.

The same sort of shift to EVs has already started.

my guess is that ICE vechiles will make up the huge majority of vehicles in Oklahoma for a long long period of time ..

No question but that doesn't mean we won't be needing fewer gas stations, not more.

No question but that doesn't mean we won't be needing fewer gas stations, not more.

if you go to an Oncue at 7am most of the people buying things are not even filling up their vehicle ..

if you go to an Oncue at 7am most of the people buying things are not even filling up their vehicle ..

Very true. That's probably the case throughout the day.

I suppose all those places can just carry on and the gas pumps will be used even less.

Also, many (apart from 7-Eleven) are including drive-thrus which of course have nothing to do with pumping gas.

No doubt Oklahoma will be a late adopter to the trend. There's always a certain % and segment who will buy new things just because they are novel and EV's are no exception. Especially Tesla. How about all the giant lifted trucks on the road? Those guys aren't switching anytime soon and it's not because of cost, I bet average new truck is 80-90k now. Shorter the guy bigger the lift usually lol.

^

But even big electric trucks are better than their ICE counterparts.

Far more horsepower and torque and of course much more efficient.

How about the Dodge Demon 170 coming out - 1025 HP. Gonna miss the HP wars. EV's might be fast but they're also soul less and can't do much other than accelerate in a straight line.... If I had to pick between a BMW M5 for example vs a Tesla Plaid would go M5 all day every day even though it's not as fast in a straight line. Hell of a lot more fun to drive all the way around.

:rolleyes: How do you define a "soulless" car? And what do you mean by they can't do much other than accelerate in a straight line? They can do more than that, but what do you want them to do that you believe they can't? How is a BMW more fun to drive than a Tesla?

A new study was just released by JD Power. If you extrapolate, it's easy to see half of new vehicle sales being EVs by 2030.

Also and not surprisingly, Oklahoma is near the bottom in adoption rate.

http://www.okctalk.com/images/pete/evs040123a.jpg


http://www.okctalk.com/images/pete/evs040123b.jpg

With the price of new vehicles rising faster than inflation and wages, my question is are the demographics of the new car purchaser changing?
Many young people are waiting a year or more to get a DL after reaching driving age. More transportation options with "ride sharing" for profit also. So I think some of this will factor into the market for new car sellers/buyers.

my guess is that ICE vechiles will make up the huge majority of vehicles in Oklahoma for a long long period of time ..

Even so, if the huge majority of vehicles in California are EVs, that's thousands of people now out of the gasoline market, which means a decline in oil prices, which means a decline in the Oklahoma oil industry. Is our economy diversified enough that the city and state will make it through that unscathed?

Gasoline isn't the only thing made from oil. Prior to putting gasoline in cars refiners just poured the gasoline into the nearest creek.

Even so, if the huge majority of vehicles in California are EVs, that's thousands of people now out of the gasoline market, which means a decline in oil prices, which means a decline in the Oklahoma oil industry. Is our economy diversified enough that the city and state will make it through that unscathed?

We probably have more employment from the natural gas industry already and increased electrical use will only drive more demand for NG. My guess would be they will offset.

There are a lot of oil jobs of course but that represents just a small fraction of our total employment.

I always point out Chesapeake went from over 6,000 very well-paid jobs to currently less than 1,000 and it was barely noticed.

Whatever change is coming will be very gradual and will be easily absorbed, at least in OKC.

On the subject of oil companies:

Shell has plans to increase its electric vehicle charging network, Shell Recharge, from 140,000 global charge points today to over 500,000 by 2025. (https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a43485710/shell-dramatically-expands-its-network-of-ev-charging-stations/)

Tesla missed their delivery numbers for the first quarter. Price cuts failed to lure new buyers. At some point EVs will reach peak-market share.

https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/tesla-misses-delivery-estimates-as-price-cuts-fail-to-lure-buyers

Nm

Tesla missed their delivery numbers for the first quarter. Price cuts failed to lure new buyers. At some point EVs will reach peak-market share.

https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/tesla-misses-delivery-estimates-as-price-cuts-fail-to-lure-buyers

You left out the stated reason for the miss:

bleak economic outlook and rising competition

Also, I expect people that work from home to buy fewer cars, or at least buy them less often. That's where I am, I drive maybe
3-4,000 miles a year now, down from ~15,000 miles. At the age of my car I would normally replace it about now, but with it paid for, and it only having ~60k miles and my driving so little I feel no need to buy a new car.

Also, I expect people that work from home to buy fewer cars, or at least buy them less often. That's where I am, I drive maybe
3-4,000 miles a year now, down from ~15,000 miles. At the age of my car I would normally replace it about now, but with it paid for, and it only having ~60k miles and my driving so little I feel no need to buy a new car.

I'm the same way... Only put about 7,000 miles per year on my car for the last few years.

Also, this is a terrible time to buy a car. The constrained supply chain + inflation means very high prices.


As of June, I will have had my current car for 20 (!) years. I keep saying 'one more year' and the way things are now I'll probably keep saying that for a while.

Tesla missed their delivery numbers for the first quarter. Price cuts failed to lure new buyers. At some point EVs will reach peak-market share.

https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/tesla-misses-delivery-estimates-as-price-cuts-fail-to-lure-buyers

once again. there are more EV manufactures than just Tesla, and once again, yes, they will take market share as the big manufacturers start to stop making so many ICE vehicles.

Tesla missed their delivery numbers for the first quarter. Price cuts failed to lure new buyers. At some point EVs will reach peak-market share.

https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/tesla-misses-delivery-estimates-as-price-cuts-fail-to-lure-buyers

You are now just trolling and/or arguing against facts and reason.

All I did was post a business article about Tesla missing their estimates and repeated the headline. Now I did add in the comment that at some point EVs will reach market saturation and is anyone seriously disagreeing with that?

"Tesla misses delivery estimates as price cuts fail to lure buyers"

The article is from Reuters.

^

It's the sum total of your posts on this subject.

I think most of us are pretty much done trying to refute the numerous erroneous assumptions and statements as the more we do, the more you keep digging into your position.

That is your right, but at some point it's not worth the trouble to debate with you.

You left out the stated reason for the miss

I'm starting to see a pattern here....

Anyway, most legacy car manufacturers are betting on the future of EVs. I think that they fear that if they don't, they will end up like the legacy wagon makers of the early 20th century. Of course, this is going to take a lot of investment and they are going to lose money on EVs for a while. That's just how major changes like this work. Ford has already come up with a big winner in their F-150 Lightning. They opened pre-orders in August of 2021 and I made my pre-order in November of '21. Soon after that the demand was so high that they had to limit the pre-orders to 200,000. Finally, 17 months later I got to order mine last week and should get it this summer. They literally can't make enough of them to meet the demand. In fact, they've already announced the next generation of the EV full sized truck. I think they are going to be just fine.

I'm just going to post this without further comment. Read it or don't. It is from the Institute for Energy Research.

https://www.instituteforenergyresearch.org/renewable/ev-car-mania-may-be-over-or-at-least-slowing/#:~:text=The%20median%20expectation%20for%20EV,inc entives%20for%20buying%20electric%20vehicles.

I'm just going to post this without further comment. Read it or don't. It is from the Institute for Energy Research.

https://www.instituteforenergyresearch.org/renewable/ev-car-mania-may-be-over-or-at-least-slowing/#:~:text=The%20median%20expectation%20for%20EV,inc entives%20for%20buying%20electric%20vehicles.

I don't want to venture too far into the political, but "The Institute for Energy Research" is an anti-climate change front founded by the Kochs, headed by the former head of public policy of Enron and funded by people and companies like Charles Koch and Exxon.

I will make one last comment and say that in 40 and 50 years BOTH ICE and electic vehicles will be more luxury items unless there is a great advancement in technology or nuclear energy. Renewable only works if you use it wisely.

I will make one last comment and say that in 40 and 50 years BOTH ICE and electic vehicles will be more luxury items unless there is a great advancement in technology or nuclear energy. Renewable only works if you use it wisely.

Are you expecting that after 40 to 50 years have passed we will not have had dramatic advancements in technology? I feel like that is a bad bet.

I will make one last comment and say that in 40 and 50 years BOTH ICE and electic vehicles will be more luxury items unless there is a great advancement in technology or nuclear energy. Renewable only works if you use it wisely.

Eh I think we use EV as a transition then move to hydrogen as a long term vehicle fuel. They still use electric motors so just refining electric motors before hydrogen becomes mainstream is good. But we move more autonomous vehicles over time and perhaps have less cars overall as they can work for us in different ways.

Or WWIII and we are all riding around in our Flintstone cars.

I don't want to venture too far into the political, but "The Institute for Energy Research" is an anti-climate change front founded by the Kochs, headed by the former head of public policy of Enron and funded by people and companies like Charles Koch and Exxon.

All of the details in that article come from UK Daily Mail, but they are real numbers publicly available from a number of sources so the facts are not in dispute.

Here is the Daily Mail article.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11621267/Electric-car-makers-brakes-UK-production-drivers-think-vehicles-expensive.html

Toyota thinks hydrogen is the future. Not battery powered EVs.

Toyota thinks hydrogen is the future. Not battery powered EVs.
That's possible. Just like ICE are gas or diesel. There can be 2 or more environmentally friendly options.