Time for the late summer thread.

Glorious light rain, with pockets of moderate rain is draped all across the state this morning. This should move out of C OK by about 11am. Cloud cover will keep temperatures from reaching much more than low 80s.

Temperatures may not break 90 for the rest of the week. But will be close on Thursday. In which Thursday night will be the next decent shot at rain.

The weekend looks fantastic with partly cloudy skies and highs in the upper 80s.


The following week, the cooler trend looks to continue with the added signs of some potential significant rain. Will keep you updated.



Enjoy this awesome weather during what is normally OK's peak summer highs.

Today, Thursday, will be the hottest day in a while and [likely for a while]. Air quality alert in effect for OKC with high humidity. Storms will develop this evening and overnight in northern OK and spread south and east. Short-range models put heaviest rain somewhere across C OK, favoring the NE sides. Localized heavy rain will fall where heavier storm clusters pass.

Temperatures for Friday look amazing with highs once again in the low-to-mid 80s.

The weekend looks like mid-to-upper 80s with another good shot @ storms Saturday night into Sunday morning.


Looking ahead to next week, temperatures are still maintaining highs in the mid 80s with rain chances increasing. There is still bullish signs of potentially significant rain as we head through next week. This could raise some potential concern for flooding if we get generous amounts over the same localized areas.

Today, Thursday, will be the hottest day in a while and [likely for a while]. Air quality alert in effect for OKC with high humidity. Storms will develop this evening and overnight in northern OK and spread south and east. Short-range models put heaviest rain somewhere across C OK, favoring the NE sides. Localized heavy rain will fall where heavier storm clusters pass.

Temperatures for Friday look amazing with highs once again in the low-to-mid 80s.

The weekend looks like mid-to-upper 80s with another good shot @ storms Satruday night into Sunday morning.


Looking ahead to next week, temperatures are still maintaining highs in the mid 80s with rain chances increasing. There is still bullish signs of potentially significant rain as we head through next week. This could raise some potential concern for flooding if we get generous amounts over the same localized areas.

Rain yay! Mid-80s yay!

Severe Thunderstorm Watch for NW OK. Storms are firing up there and will slide southeast this evening. More storms will fire off in western OK and most of the state should see rain tonight. Heaviest amounts look to be in NE OK.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd1449.gif

http://www.kjrh.com/news/local-news/possible-tornado-causes-damage-overnight-to-buildings-restaurants-in-midtown-tulsa

http://www.kjrh.com/news/local-news/possible-tornado-causes-damage-overnight-to-buildings-restaurants-in-midtown-tulsa

They are now saying an EF2 tornado hit part of midtown Tulsa early Sunday morning. No official warning (and no sirens), lucky no one died but there are lots of injuries.

Next rain chances move in tomorrow night. And better chances Thursday night into Friday.

Models are all over the place with where the heaviest rain will fall, but NE OK is looking to be favored over the long haul.

As far as temperatures, Wednesday and Thursday we will make a run back toward 90F, but that is still below average for this time of year. The current trend of these highs in the 80s continues as we go through the weekend and even into next week. Looking ahead in the long-range, rain chances and lower temperatures may persist through at least mid-August.

Decent drink for parts of the center of the state overnight Wednesday with amounts ranging from a quarter inch to as much as 3 inches over areas just SW of OKC.

SPC has expanded tonight's risk for severe weather across most of the N half of OK. Primary threat will be strong wind (potentially damaging via bow echo) with an MCS that develops out of KS and pushes south and east overnight.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1300.gif?1502370681351


https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2017081006/nam3km_ref_frzn_scus_29.png

MD out already for western half of OK. Storms are already formed and will continue to build as they race out of NW OK this afternoon. Short range models are showing this first wave to hit C OK around 5pm. Damaging winds and hail are likely scenarios. These will be quick moving and rush out for the evening hours. Then a second round will be building back to the NW that will likely be a large MCS with damaging winds that will take a very similar path.

Flash flooding threat is increasing for most of NW, W, and C OK. We should see a Severe Thunderstorm Watch over the area soon.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd1465.gif

This first complex is really moving. Currently severe with hail larger than golfballs and damaging winds - approaching the metro from the NW. This will impact OKC in the next hour.

They are now saying an EF2 tornado hit part of midtown Tulsa early Sunday morning. No official warning (and no sirens), lucky no one died but there are lots of injuries.

Engineers to assess whether Remington Tower is at risk of collapse after direct hit from tornado, insurance expert says.

“We know the building twisted; we know the building is designed to twist, but did it twist more than it was designed for?” Sharpe said. “That’s the biggest question.”
http://www.tulsaworld.com/news/local/engineers-assessing-whether-remington-tower-is-threat-to-collapse-after/article_e7e71f1a-329e-551d-a20e-52653ddf41ac.html

…FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING…

The National Weather Service in Norman has issued a

* Flood Watch for flash flooding…flooding of creeks and
rivers…and flooding of low lying areas for portions of
central Oklahoma, east central Oklahoma, northern Oklahoma,
northwest Oklahoma, southeast Oklahoma, southern Oklahoma,
southwest Oklahoma, and western Oklahoma, including the
following areas, in central Oklahoma, Canadian, Cleveland,
Grady, Kingfisher, Lincoln, Logan, McClain, Oklahoma, Payne,
and Pottawatomie. In east central Oklahoma, Pontotoc and
Seminole. In northern Oklahoma, Garfield, Grant, Kay, and
Noble. In northwest Oklahoma, Alfalfa, Blaine, Dewey, Ellis,
Harper, Major, Woods, and Woodward. In southeast Oklahoma,
Atoka, Bryan, Coal, Hughes, Johnston, and Marshall. In
southern Oklahoma, Carter, Garvin, Jefferson, Love, Murray,
and Stephens. In southwest Oklahoma, Caddo, Comanche, Cotton,
Greer, Harmon, Jackson, Kiowa, and Tillman. In western
Oklahoma, Beckham, Custer, Roger Mills, and Wa****a.

* Through Sunday morning

* Several rounds of thunderstorm complexes, beginning this morning
and occurring at times through early Sunday will result in
excessive rainfall accumulations across the area. Multi-day
rainfall amounts between now and Sunday could total between 3 to
5 inches across a large portion of central and western
Oklahoma, with locally higher amounts possible.

Precautionary/preparedness actions…

A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on
current forecasts.

You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible
Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be
prepared to take action should flooding develop.

More rain is coming.

Rain and storms will develop out in NW OK later this evening and move SE toward C OK into the late night hours and into Saturday morning.

After that, a big wave comes through Saturday evening and likely causes flash flooding.

Sunday night into Monday an (appearing to be) even heavier round comes through from the west once again.


Models are all over the place on placement of the heaviest rain. But a general consensus of an additional 2-4" after this weekend is likely somewhere across a large portion of the state. Virtually the entire state will see rain this weekend @ some point. Localized flash flooding is likely in areas where heavier thunderstorms train.

Looks like from about I-40 and south will be the corridor of the heaviest rainfall. Heavy storms developing in the large pocket of rain down in SW OK, these will continue to ride up north and east. Localized flash flooding will be main threat. Enjoy this beautiful rainfall! We need this.

Huge rain and storm complex down in SW OK will be swinging up into S and C OK overnight. It will weaken as it does, but still expect a wet sunrise. Flash flooding will be main threat.

Here is the rain totals from the last handful of days. Western OK coming out as winners so far, and basically Lake Eufaula.

More rain chances this week, next big shot being Wednesday night. Below average temperatures all week, highs will stay in the low 90s.

http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/realtime/rainrfc.120hr.png

We could see a couple storms develop just SW of OKC this afternoon and push over the area. Weak disturbance still lifting north and the air is very unstable.

To bad the Pop-ins OKC umbrella sharing program (https://www.facebook.com/PopinsOKC/) never went anywhere. Could have used one downtown today.

Had an inch of rain at my house in about 10 minutes.

Same goes for my place in The Village! I made a few videos and posted them to my FB--vulgar language included, simply because it was...that VULGAR...

Severe storm threat going up for this evening. Instability will build all day. Then a line of storms should develop from NC OK down toward SW OK. Putting most of C and N OK under the gun.

Flash flooding and a low chance of large hail are main threats. Looks like Thursday night will be another good shot @ storms over the same areas, as a cluster of storms should form in SW KS and fly south and east.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2017081606/namconus_ref_frzn_scus_22.png

Here is our August rainfall map so far. Any other time, if you told me this was for August, I would call you a liar.

http://i.imgur.com/BEMKndX.jpg

Makes me wonder if we will end up with a high wildfire danger in the fall/early winter.

With all this rain, our neighborhood yards are being inundated with mushrooms. Yuck. Any sneaky trick to getting rid of them??

With all this rain, our neighborhood yards are being inundated with mushrooms. Yuck. Any sneaky trick to getting rid of them??

They're pretty good in a stir fry. ;) (Not really, just in case anyone took me seriously. Don't be eating them!)

Try and catch them early and pluck them and put them in the garbage. Don't just toss them back in the yard or you'll spread them even more.

Used to have quite a few in my yard but now just get the occasional one popping up.

With all this rain, our neighborhood yards are being inundated with mushrooms. Yuck. Any sneaky trick to getting rid of them??

Be sure to use gloves or something to pick them up with other than your bare hands - they stain fingers pretty good. speaking from today's experience ;–)

With all this rain, our neighborhood yards are being inundated with mushrooms. Yuck. Any sneaky trick to getting rid of them??

The ones in my neighbor's yard are enormous. Some of the caps are honestly approaching the size of dinner plates. Pretty gnarly.

The ones in my neighbor's yard are enormous. Some of the caps are honestly approaching the size of dinner plates. Pretty gnarly.

My mother-in-outlaw's yard looks like she started a shroom farm.... My plants and yard think it's spring again. Even my cool season grass is coming out of dormancy.

Be sure to use gloves or something to pick them up with other than your bare hands - they stain fingers pretty good. speaking from today's experience ;–)

I won't touch a wild 'shroom for any reason. I scoop 'em up with the same flat shovel I use to pick up ye olde doggie debris.....I did read that a dose of nitrogen fertilizer might help fend them off some if you notice them moreso in your yard than a neighbor's...

Cumulus beginning to organize to the northwest. The show already starting in N OK.

Storms in C OK will be after dark.

FLOOD WATCH

Updated: Wed Aug-16-17 02:12pm CDT
Effective: Wed Aug-16-17 02:45pm CDT
Expires: Wed Aug-16-17 06:00pm CDT

Severity: Moderate
Urgency: Future
Certainty: Possible

Status: Actual
Type: Alert
Category: Met
Areas affected: Cleveland; Hughes; Lincoln; Logan; McClain; Noble; Oklahoma; Payne; Pontotoc; Pottawatomie; Seminole

Message summary: ...flood watch in effect from 7 pm cdt this evening through thursday morning...
The national weather service in norman has issued a
* flood watch for flash flooding of creeks and rivers...and low lying areas for portions of central oklahoma, east central oklahoma, northern oklahoma, and southeast oklahoma, including the following counties, cleveland, kay, lincoln, logan, mcclain, noble, oklahoma, payne, pontotoc, pottawatomie and seminole.
* from 7 pm cdt this evening until tomorrow morning.
* thunderstorms will occur this evening and through the night over areas that have already seen heavy rainfall amounts. This increases the potential for flooding or flash flooding. Precautionary/preparedness actions...
A flood watch means there is a potential for flooding based on current forecasts. You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible flood warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding develop. Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the dangers of flooding.

Line of severe storms moving into the NW metro right now. Again flash flooding and frequent lightning main culprits. Initial gust of wind could be up to 45 mph.

Drove from North of Memorial to just west of Will Rogers, that was quite the lightning show out there.

It also doesn't take a lot of rain to make the flooding appear.

The Oklahoma summer drought has almost been eradicated. Amazing turn around from where the central and western parts of the state were a couple months ago.

https://www.drought.gov/drought/sites/drought.gov.drought/files/styles/medium/public/externals/f9fd35b6244e45caedbc814bcd0ebd1c.png?itok=_YETDLxz&hash=2241840e

Could still see another round of rain/storms late tonight into Friday morning. Depending if they can hold together exiting the SW KS and TX PH corridor. Models are leaning to the doubtful side of this scenario.

Then one more shot @ a similar scenario later Friday evening.

After that, the weekend looks muggy and hot, and currently model trend for next week and beyond is indicative of a return of the death ridge.

Rain is not likely anymore for tonight. Perhaps far NE OK could see some action. Otherwise this weekend will be very hot and muggy.

Models are reversing the trend of upcoming hot weather, and a potential tropical influence will begin impacting our weather next week. Potentially highs in the 80s again with rain chances.

Showers and storms will develop this evening roughly along the I-40 corridor. Favored area is just south of I-40 and especially across W & SW OK.

This will be the part of a stalled front that will bring back the highs in the mid 80s through the weekend.

Then eyes turn toward the GOM as a potential tropical storm will develop and impact the TX coast.

Storms should begin developing over the next few hours.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd1553.gif


Mesoscale Discussion 1553
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0254 PM CDT Tue Aug 22 2017

Areas affected...Portions of OK...north TX...the TX Panhandle/South
Plains...eastern NM

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 221954Z - 222230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated severe-thunderstorm risk is expected to exist
into the late afternoon and early evening hours. Watch issuance will
be unlikely.

DISCUSSION...The following zones will be focus areas for convective
deepening into the late afternoon hours:
(1) an outflow boundary arcing from east-central OK toward the Tulsa
area,
(2) differential-heating-induced baroclinicity on the warm-side
fringes of a multi-layered cloud band from the Wichita Falls and
Lawton areas toward Norman and Tulsa,
(3) modest synoptic frontal convergence from east-central NM into
west-central OK (convectively influenced in NM), and
(4) deeper baroclinicity along a stronger-frontal segment just south
of the northeast OK/southeast KS border.

Modifications to the 17Z and 18Z observed soundings across the area
suggest that capping aloft continues to erode as pockets of at least
filtered insolation continue on the warm sides of the aforementioned
zones of convective initiation. Related convective inflow is
becoming increasingly buoyant, with MLCAPE increasing to
1000-2500 J/kg -- highest magnitudes where insolation has been
strongest. While pockets of ongoing clouds are locally muting
diabatic surface-layer heating in parts of OK, eventually
strengthening/expanding cold pools will likely breed growing
convective coverage/intensity during the next few hours across the
entire area, amid DCAPE upwards of 1000-1250 J/kg. Sporadic severe
wind gusts may accompany collapsing convective cores into the
evening hours, though weak effective shear will limit convective
organization and severe coverage. The isolated severe risk will tend
to spread southward with time owing to preferential growth of
incipient updrafts into the more buoyant air with southward extent
across the region.

..Cohen/Elliott/Grams.. 08/22/2017

We're getting quite a bit of hail right now in the Midtown area. Not really large--maybe pea-sized--but it's been going on for about 5 minutes.

Nice show up here on the far NW side of OKC. Driving sheets of rain, RUMBLING thunder and huge, long lasting lightening bolts.

Holy cow! Well over an inch of rain in about 10 minutes here near Penn Square.

UkZhoHwiORs

3 inches at my house in about 30 minutes... And counting.

OKC proper was the winner with rain. That one cell blew up directly over downtown and just kept expanding while staying stationary. Then the main cluster from the north swept through. Solid 2-4" depending on where you are located in the metro.

Looking ahead, we are going to be affected by the tropical storm that comes up into TX, this may cause our weather to be drier as it will be sucking all the moisture and energy down to it. On the contrary, this could bring in chances of rain/storms if the system goes far enough north to bring in some bands.

Great rain in Norman. Many roads were closed due to flash flooding. Nice to not worry about the sprinkler system for a few weeks now.

OKC proper was the winner with rain. That one cell blew up directly over downtown and just kept expanding while staying stationary. Then the main cluster from the north swept through. Solid 2-4" depending on where you are located in the metro.

Yep, we were right underneath it and it was pretty fierce. The hail, although not too large, shredded up a bunch of our plants and left leaves and debris all over the sidewalks and yard. No major damage though, and glad to not have to run the sprinkler for a while.

Great rain in Norman. Many roads were closed due to flash flooding. Nice to not worry about the sprinkler system for a few weeks now.

Amen. I'm in the phase of the year where I'm starting to cut the grass taller as we at least approach the dormancy season, but with the rain (and a well-timed dose of fertilizer), the grass is growing like crazy and I actually may have to start mowing every other day at least for a time. Gonna leave the sprinklers off for a while!

Looking ahead, we are going to be affected by the tropical storm that comes up into TX, this may cause our weather to be drier as it will be sucking all the moisture and energy down to it. On the contrary, this could bring in chances of rain/storms if the system goes far enough north to bring in some bands.

GFS is keeping most of the activity in Texas with movement more NE toward the middle of next week. Looks more like a potentially historic rain event for Texas and Louisiana, and maybe into Arkansas next week with most of OK in the dry slot. Things can change though..

What was only a slight chance of rain has turned into 2+ inches of precip at my house, and still counting.

What was only a slight chance of rain has turned into 2+ inches of precip at my house, and still counting.

Yeah... It's wreaking havoc on the golf courses.... Last night every shot was like playing from the rough and there were mower tracks on the greens because of all the water still on the course from that downpour we had a few days back.

I am happy I made the choice to mow last night instead of tonight. I thought well it is only a 30% chance of rain but I'll be safe.

It is pouring here in Norman.

2.88 inches on my rain gauge and still coming down.

OKC East Mesonet station is reporting 3.47" right now. I believe that station is located just east of I-35 between 4th and 10th street.

Wondering how Harvey will affect us in the next 5-6 days....I would imagine we will get some rain out of it.

Some local stations reporting 5" now in NW OKC (per Wundermap). More than any I could find in Houston so far today. That'll change, I'm sure. I accidentally ran the sprinkler system on Wednesday too. Doh!

As of 2:30 pm, the rain, however light, so far, finally arrived to Stillwater before it could rain itself out.

http://www.stillwaterweather.com/wxgraphic.php?type=banner_big (http://www.stillwaterweather.com/)

Most of Oklahoma not needing something as extreme as a gully washer:
http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/data/png/current/current_ok_trd.png

Wondering how Harvey will affect us in the next 5-6 days....I would imagine we will get some rain out of it.

It's supposed to stay in roughly the same place in SE TX after making landfall during the weekend, while staying south of Dallas. So extreme amounts of rain possible up to 36", maybe more.

Wondering how Harvey will affect us in the next 5-6 days....I would imagine we will get some rain out of it.

Doesn't look like it will affect Oklahoma at all, maybe southeast OK later next week as the remnants move to the northeast.

This will be a major catastrophe in Texas, some areas could see 500 year flood events including Houston.

Well this tropical-action-packed month is going to continue to affect OK. With Harvey still churning over Houston, the dry, cool air will make our days and nights absolutely wonderful. No real rain in the forecast for OK, except maybe extreme SE OK where the bands could clip the corner of the state.

Looking past Harvey, there is a potential for an additional tropical storm to develop in the western GOM. This storm would likely continue to impact the Houston area next week [if it develops].