Sure, I agree, but giving up on the team for losing by 1 to a good team doesn’t make sense. This loss wasn’t in the top 10 worse losses this season. It’s not good, but this game to game shifting of opinions from we’re-great to we’re-awful doesn’t make sense.

How dare you bring logic to a fan thread!

Sure, I agree, but giving up on the team for losing by 1 to a good team doesn’t make sense. This loss wasn’t in the top 10 worse losses this season. It’s not good, but this game to game shifting of opinions from we’re-great to we’re-awful doesn’t make sense. This game didn’t change my opinion of this team. We’re likely a mid-seed that can win in the first round.

Yeah but the problem is they should not be a middle of the pack type team especially with all of this talent they have. Last years team with only Westbrook as the super star we were 43-32 this year we are 44-33 and that is basically the same record. Hardly seems like an improvement with all the money we shelled out for these so called superstars. You are what your record says you are and this is a team that will be lucky to get of the first round and if they don't start winning soon they might be out of the playoffs. Contrary to my post im a huge thunder fan but this is the most disappointing and frustrating season i have witnessed. And i posted way back very early in the season ( Nov 9th ) that this team was in trouble and it would be a long and frustrating season ) and that they were a bunch of all-stars but no team and i still stand by that to this day.

Right. We’ve known what this team is for months. Nothing new recently. My point was just that jumping ship now doesn’t make sense. I still think this team is potentially dangerous in the playoffs, but they need a good draw. We’ll see...

Right. We’ve known what this team is for months. Nothing new recently. My point was just that jumping ship now doesn’t make sense. I still think this team is potentially dangerous in the playoffs, but they need a good draw. We’ll see...

I would like to agree with that and nothing would make me happier if they do indeed make the playoffs and that they are built for it and they turn a switch on and make a run. But right now im a bit nervous with the 3 game slide and a road game at a very hungry pelicans team that is trying to improve their seeding. One thing that is perhaps in the thunders favor is that the upcoming games against Houston and Golden state may not mean much to them and they wont have all the starters playing. Time will tell!!!

And if we had back the 6 games we lost to bad officiating. This conversation doesn’t happen.

.

Oklahoma City Thunder 109 - New Orleans Pelicans 104

Box score: http://www.espn.com/nba/boxscore?gameId=400975896



Westbrook: 24th triple double.

But seriously. What happened to PG during the Allstar weekend??

^^^
PG has been really inconsistent. Him and Melo were awful last night. Obviously, those two need to be better for this team to do anything in the playoffs... Again, as grim as everything looks now, there is still reason to believe that they could turn it on in the playoffs. It's pretty sad because I have no complaints about the rotations or shots last night, but aside from Russ, no one made anything.

It would be interesting to see if OKC could push the Warriors minus Curry in the first round. I think it's possible. But I'd probably rather just get the 4, 5, or 6 seed and try to get the Rockets in the second round still (assuming OKC can advance, which is not a safe assumption).

Magic number is 2. OKC is guaranteed the playoffs if we win 2 of our last 3.

However, if we drop 2 - we are @ the mercy of others. We lose tie breakers with most of the teams we would be tied with in this scenario. We need Denver and Clippers to lose as much as possible.

I honestly am on board with drawing Warriors in round 1. I know we will likely get crushed, but if this team has any chance to go deep in post-season - then playing without Curry is definitely the time you want GSW.

Drawing Rockets in round 1 is likely going to be us getting swept.

Magic # would be 2 if OKC had the tie breaker with Denver. They don't. Magic number is 3
Interesting also that the Pacers have a better record with 3 games left.

^ Edit

Denver and Minnesota play each other twice in these last 4 games. Therefore it is impossible for both of those teams be ahead of OKC. Denver is likely the odd man out considering their remaining games other than playing MIN twice is POR and LAC.

So if MIN beats DEN twice, OKC is in with 2 wins.
If DEN beats MIN twice, OKC is in with 2 wins because it would put us with one more win than MIN.

It is crazy how all of these teams battling for these spots in the West are scheduled against each other for these last 3-4 games.

OKC just needs two Ws to at least get the 8th spot.

Better to miss the playoffs with this team. Avoid embarrassment

^^^^ It might be better long term to miss the playoffs. If they miss the playoffs they keep their draft pick. If they limp in to the playoffs, the draft pick goes to Minnesota.

Missing the playoffs would be a disaster far worse than losing a mid-1st pick. OKC definitely wants to make the playoffs and is still very likely going to make it.

And, missing the playoffs to avoid embarrassment... *face palm emoji*

That's like saying "we should lose $100, to avoid loosing $50".

^^^ I'm missing this analogy?

Missing the playoffs would be a disaster far worse than losing a mid-1st pick. OKC definitely wants to make the playoffs and is still very likely going to make it.

And, missing the playoffs to avoid embarrassment... *face palm emoji*

Why would missing the playoffs be far worse? Why do believe this team this team can "turn it on for the playoffs"?

Because making the playoffs, and then getting kicked out the first round, is still more success than not making the playoffs to begin with.

Even a 1st round sweep against us still results in money for the team, money for the businesses in Oklahoma City, and more importantly more playoff experience for every player on our roster. The playoffs are just a whole other experience for players and coaches and support staff, and it's better to get that experience while getting our rears handed to us than it would be to not have that experience for next year.

100% this.

Spurs lost again last night! Thank you Lakers!

This puts us back in solid position to grab the 4th spot. This last slew of games for the West traffic jam is going to be insane. Clippers and Nuggets are barely holding onto slipping in, and they are pitted against playing the same teams they are trying to knock out.

Spurs have to play POR and NOP. Jazz have to play Clippers, Lakers, Warriors, and Trailblazers.

^ Edit

Denver and Minnesota play each other twice in these last 4 games. Therefore it is impossible for both of those teams be ahead of OKC. Denver is likely the odd man out considering their remaining games other than playing MIN twice is POR and LAC.

So if MIN beats DEN twice, OKC is in with 2 wins.
If DEN beats MIN twice, OKC is in with 2 wins because it would put us with one more win than MIN.

It is crazy how all of these teams battling for these spots in the West are scheduled against each other for these last 3-4 games.

OKC just needs two Ws to at least get the 8th spot.

Good catch, and thanks for figuring it out.

Why would missing the playoffs be far worse? Why do believe this team this team can "turn it on for the playoffs"?

1. Their point differential still suggests they're a better team than their record (7th best team in the league)
2. Melo's ability to hit contested shots are more suited for the playoffs.
3. PG historically plays better in the playoffs.
4. OKC could still get a favorable first round matchup.
5. OKC has had great stretches recently (winning 7 of 8 before losing these close games), but this board has short term memory.
6. OKC's last 5 losses have been to playoff teams and each has been 4 points or less... not exactly the sign of a non-competitive team.

I could go on. Every season everyone still reacts to every game or stretch like it's life or death. You have to step back sometimes to look at the broader picture. Several teams OKC could play in the first round have also been struggling recently. In 2016, it didn't look like there was any way OKC could compete with the Spurs much less the Warriors. Yeah, I'm just not ready to concede that OKC is going to get destroyed just yet because a number of close games didn't go their way. Remember, OKC lost every close game for the first month of the season... and then won all their close games the next month. The same thing could turn around tomorrow.

Great post, Dan.

Because making the playoffs, and then getting kicked out the first round, is still more success than not making the playoffs to begin with.

Even a 1st round sweep against us still results in money for the team, money for the businesses in Oklahoma City, and more importantly more playoff experience for every player on our roster. The playoffs are just a whole other experience for players and coaches and support staff, and it's better to get that experience while getting our rears handed to us than it would be to not have that experience for next year.
My inquiry was based solely on long term benefits to future success. The facts of money being made by merchants, owners was not part of the equation. The playoff experience is hard to factor in. I don't know that the starters need this to add to their expertise, and the bench I have doubts as to whether or not the majority should be with the BLUE or overseas. I don't see how this team will be able to get additional talent outside of the draft with salary tax restrictions and such.

Thanks for your insights Dan.

Thanks for your insights Dan.

No problem. I enjoy the discussion. I tend to be an optimist, but I'm also big into looking at patterns. And there's some hope there even if there's plenty of reasons to be concerned. This team is definitely not as good as I expected. I just think they *could* still win a first round series and be competitive in the second round.

As to getting the draft pick, even if you take out the enhanced possibility of losing PG by missing the playoffs, it's really not that beneficial. OKC would likely get the worst lottery pick, which doesn't guarantee much. That's just below where we drafted Steven Adams and Cam Payne. Hit or miss. But, OKC is going to have to give up a pick this year or next so keeping it this year would just even out next year. There's almost nothing to be gained longterm in getting a lottery pick this season.

...I don't see how this team will be able to get additional talent outside of the draft with salary tax restrictions and such.

Agree that they are in a tough spot and that if PG and Melo don't show up, it's a dark scenario. I've asked this before and can't remember if/how anyone responded, but I'm wondering if Melo's people could approach the Thunder and agree to opt out of next season and instead sign a longer term, guaranteed deal (3-4 years..?) with veteran minimum money early and enough backloaded that it would be similar to what he can likely get by sticking to current deal next year and going on open market after that.

I think he still has a few years of good (maybe not All-Star, but still good) hoop left in him, and as Dan points out he has specific skills which might translate very well in the playoffs, provided he starts hitting shots.

Right now he gets 28M next year. Guaranteed. The league min for a 10 year vet is about 1.4M. So say he has 5 years total left that comes to 35M guaranteed. I don't see how the Thunder can make the #'s work. In all honesty, would you or anyone you know walk away from 28M guaranteed for the min. when you factor in a greater probability of a career ending injury as one ages? Ownership would have to come up with a # totaling over 35 to offset risk to the player.

Then there is another problem in PG. If you were a voting member of the ownership group, would you pay a max contract on this guy after watching this team this year?

I cannot see a situation where Melo would opt out and stay in OKC. I think he'll opt in. It's just too much money to give up. Besides, (a) OKC may not have the salary cap space to sign him long term and (b) I think signing Melo long term would be worse for OKC. Paying him $28 million for one year stinks, but paying him $7 million in three or four years might be even worse.

There is absolutely no question that you pay PG whatever he demands. He's an all-star and there's really no path to another all-star. For PG's offensive frustrations, it's easy to forget he's one of the top perimeter defenders in the league. He's worth the max. OKC will be in trouble financially no matter what, but you still make that happen.

Westbrook needs to yield to Coach Donovan:

If Westbrook is on page 1; while Donovan is on page 2, attempts to draw up plays from his bench perspective then you're going to continue to see Russ run into traps--then on a last decision throw the ball out near the 3 point line leading to a turnover.

Westbrook needs to get in tune with Donovan's advantage from the bench; if Westbrook plays by ear then Billy's plays will not work. Westbrook can't just do his own thing which sometimes work--he needs to work with the team--let the game come to him instead of trying to create his own options when the team follows what Donovan has drawn up.

This becomes counter-productive; players get frustrated, IMO that's why you see balls bouncing/rattling off the rim instead of going thru the hoop.

Man Laramie, I sort of feel like Russell Westbrook is the least of this team's problems.

.

Oklahoma City Thunder 108 - Houston Rockets 102

Box score: http://www.espn.com/nba/boxscore?gameId=400975940

Man Laramie, I sort of feel like Russell Westbrook is the least of this team's problems.

Agree, seldom do I single him out for his play. Did hear him say to Donovan that he doesn't like to draw up plays--you've got to know what your plan of attack in those close games. We've lost some close one's down the stretch.

https://i2.wp.com/thunderdigest.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/meltdown.jpg?w=1460
Rockets Meltdown 4.7.18


Some comical postings by Rocket fans; OKC ended Houston's 20 game home win streak: https://thunderdigest.com/2018/04/08/rockets-meltdown-4-7-18/

Some excerpts:


Paul George should’ve fouled out by now!! Rigged!!
whenever we put in these two grandpas nene and jj at the same time, we lose lead…
joe johnson should get 0 minutes in the playoffs.


Westbrook looks fantastic.
Time for a patented Rockets 15-2 run.
Westbrook’s intensity is unmatched in the league
If Melo blocks you at the rim. Retire.


Refs gave them about 10 points so we should’ve won in my book
he lost the ball again…wtf is up with Harden and pressure?
Rockets lost!!!….Westbrook deserves MVP over Harden!!
Harden bricking fts when they chant MVP just shows how mentally weak he is.
Go home rockets. You’re drunk

.

Oklahoma City Thunder 115 - Miami Heat 93

Box score: http://www.espn.com/nba/boxscore?gameId=400975952

Westbrook 25th Triple-double, 23 points; Paul George 5-13 threes, 8-9 free throws, 27 points, Jerami Grant 17 points, 9-11 free throws

Spurs are currently down 10 to the Kings @ home. Jazz still have Warriors and Trailblazers. OKC could actually get the 4th spot if things keep playing out in their favor. That would be nuts considering how this season has gone.

^^^^^^^
I’m trying to restrain myself from quoting a bunch of my own posts upthread starting about mid-December.

Ended up with a winning record on the road. Should have some momentum going into the playoffs.

Of course the Kings blow it. Chances @ 4th are hurt now. But the Jazz could still lose a game and Spurs could lose to Pelicans when we are playing the Grizzlies.

Denver versus Minnesota @ the same time will determine who goes to the playoffs of those two. That is going to be an insane game.

The final night of the NBA season is going to basically determine 4-9 with tiebreakers being involved.

I'd prefer the 7 seed, but am fine with anything other than the 6 seed. Even though we haven't done great against them in the regular season, I think we would beat the Trailblazers who haven't done crap in the post season in the Lillard era. I don't think we would beat a healthy Warrior's squad, so biting the bullet early and seeing if you can't knock them off while they're injured probably gives us our best shot at the reaching the WCF. I also think Houston will get easier to beat as the playoffs drag on.

^^^^^^^
I’m trying to restrain myself from quoting a bunch of my own posts upthread starting about mid-December.

Let’s not get carried away. Lol. This OKC team has underperformed and sneaking into a decent seed doesn’t change that. It all comes down to the playoffs. I wouldn’t get too high after these wins just like I didn’t get too low after the recent losses. Time will tell.

Everyone who wants the Warriors is crazy to me. Yeah, Steph Is out, but they’re probably still the second best team in the league without him. I don’t think they’re as injured as people think and I think they’re better with the current squad then people think also. How quickly people forget.

Give me the Portland Trailblazers. We’re due to kick their butt.

Let’s not get carried away. Lol. This OKC team has underperformed and sneaking into a decent seed doesn’t change that. It all comes down to the playoffs. I wouldn’t get too high after these wins just like I didn’t get too low after the recent losses. Time will tell.
You’re not picking up what I’m laying down. I’ve been consistent as hell.

Since day one I’ve just been saying don’t panic, they’ll be competitive, Donovan’s wonky line-ups are experimental leading to playoffs, they’ll definitely MAKE the playoffs, they’re likely to make it through at least one round, and have POTENTIAL to make more noise after that. I’ve also been very consistent that anybody who seriously expected them to waltz to a championship this season was delusional, and that this year was about finding rhythm and retaining Paul George.

The way I see it, I’ve pretty much nailed all of it. Besides, if you award them HALF of the games that the L2M report essential said should have gone the other way and/or Paul George doesn’t have his shooting slump, they’re probably third seed, which is only underperformance in the eyes of the truly delusional.

The only thing I’m on my high horse about is all of the “disaster of a season,” “won’t make playoffs,” “fire Donovan” talk. Because those were garbage takes.

Hey, I’m mostly with you. The Thunder are likely in a position where they can win the first round and be competitive in the second round. That certainly was the general expectation I had going into the season even if they’ve underperformed. I’m just pointing out that it’s certainly been a disappointment that the team was this close to missing the playoffs. I hope that this team has turned the corner, but let’s not bank on that until we see it. If you’ve noticed, I’ve never gotten too high or low with this team. So, I’m not getting too high just because they’ve won a couple games. I want to see them do it when it matters. Losing in the first round would certainly be a failure for the season.

I’ve also not gotten too high or too low. In fact it’s pretty much what I’ve expected other than the record being a bit worse than I’d hoped and some frustrating clunkiness from PG and Melo (though understandable to some extent because they - especially Melo - were completely altering their games).

I think if they win a series, contend in if not win another, and find a way to resign PG while keeping the core of what’s made them successful they’re in great shape for a real run next year. Which is exactly what I’ve been saying all season.

If I’m disappointed about anything it’s that Houston is so much better than the field now that GSW is unexpectedly vulnerable. Would be a great year to capitalize.

That said, OKC has been competitive with Houston and can certainly beat them when hitting on all cylinders. Also, Harden benefits from really forgiving officiating all year and feasts on what is essentially a cheat code; hooking defenders, throwing his floppy head back and getting to the foul line. That is likely to evaporate in the postseason and level the playing field. So who knows what happens from here? I’m excited for the opportunity. The idea that missing the playoffs would be better..? Sorry, I vigorously disagree.

I wouldn't look too down on Portland. It's not their fault the keep running in to the Warriors round 1 or 2 of the playoffs.

Basically we need to root for the Jazz to lose if we want the 4th spot. I say if we aren't going to be 4th, then we want to be 7th. I think KD doesn't have the ability to lead that team in a tough playoff matchup - especially if we can steal homecourt. If we have to face the snake, do it without Curry. One thing I am scared about, is Zaza purposely injuring any of our players, though. That seems to be what the Warrior's go-to move is when the going gets tough for the greatest team of all time.

If I’m disappointed about anything it’s that Houston is so much better than the field now that GSW is unexpectedly vulnerable. Would be a great year to capitalize.

The demise of the Warriors is much exaggerated. They're still the favorite to win the title.

Basically we need to root for the Jazz to lose if we want the 4th spot. I say if we aren't going to be 4th, then we want to be 7th. I think KD doesn't have the ability to lead that team in a tough playoff matchup - especially if we can steal homecourt. If we have to face the snake, do it without Curry. One thing I am scared about, is Zaza purposely injuring any of our players, though. That seems to be what the Warrior's go-to move is when the going gets tough for the greatest team of all time.

Even if we don't like him, KD is a top 3 player in the planet who is more than capable of leading the Warriors to eliminate us. I don't wany any part of the Warriors even if they're without Steph. In order, I hope the Thunder play the Pelicans, Spurs, Blazers, Jazz, Rockets, Warriors. Assuming OKC doesn't lose to the Memphis Tankers on Wednesday, OKC is likely playing the Jazz or the Pelicans/Spurs winner though.

I know he is obviously a fantastic player, but we know he is mentally weak. Russ and crew clowning on him by winning 1 of the first two would mess with his head so much.

Anyway, I think the only chance we have to play GSW is if we lose (throw) the Memphis game. I am scared of Jazz and Trailblazers. I hope we play Pelicans or Spurs.


Tramel went ahead and went through the brain maze of the 3-8 seeds to see how OKC can get 4th. This is the scenario:

* Utah must beat Golden State on Tuesday night in Salt Lake City;

* The Thunder must beat Memphis on Wednesday night in OKC;

* Portland must beat Utah on Wednesday night in Portland.

The demise of the Warriors is much exaggerated. They're still the favorite to win the title.

I never said they're not the favorite. I said they are unexpectedly vulnerable, which is 100% accurate. Just like everyone else I expected them to be unbeatable this season, and that has not proven to be the case. They CAN be beaten, especially if the injury bug continues. Unexpected turn of events, although of course the injury part can strike any team.

I DID say that Houston is much better than the field, and stand by that. In case it wasn't clear I intended for that to imply EXCEPT for GSW, who I agree on paper is a much better team than even Houston is (also from an experience and coaching standpoint), but not better right now as far as productivity is concerned.

I know he is obviously a fantastic player, but we know he is mentally weak. Russ and crew clowning on him by winning 1 of the first two would mess with his head so much.

I don't know how you define "mentally weak," but like it or not, Kevin Durant is a big-time player who often thrives in the face of adversity. Here's just some evidence off the top of my head:
- He drilled the biggest shot of last season in LeBron's face to win the Finals and Finals MVP when the game was on the line.
- KD had a ton of clutch moments with the Thunder where he took over games in tough situations.
- When KD faced the most backlash from the media, Thunder players, and fans, he responded by absolutely destroying the Thunder.

The way KD played against OKC after the backlash of his decision pretty much directly contradicts the idea that he'd fall apart in the face of criticism. He may be "mentally weak" off the court, but when he steps on it, he's as good as anyone in the game, including when facing adversity.

I never said they're not the favorite. I said they are unexpectedly vulnerable, which is 100% accurate. Just like everyone else I expected them to be unbeatable this season, and that has not proven to be the case. They CAN be beaten, especially if the injury bug continues. Unexpected turn of events, although of course the injury part can strike any team.

I DID say that Houston is much better than the field, and stand by that. In case it wasn't clear I intended for that to imply EXCEPT for GSW, who I agree on paper is a much better team than even Houston is (also from an experience and coaching standpoint), but not better right now as far as productivity is concerned.

I gotchya in regards to Houston/Golden State, but I disagree that anything has been proven yet. I think should be wary in using the regular season to judge a Golden State team that doesn't care about the regular season. We'll see if Houston can hang with them in the playoffs. Maybe so, but I'm still waiting to see. Golden State only has one impactful injury at this point and that may be resolved by round 2. The rest of these injuries are just them getting people healthy for the playoffs. And trust me, I hope Golden State struggles, but I still think they're arguably the most talented team in NBA history.

https://i2.wp.com/thunderdigest.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/meltdown.jpg?w=1460
Heat Meltdown! 4.9.18
http://thunderdigest.com/2018/04/10/heat-meltdown-4-9-18/

I gotchya in regards to Houston/Golden State, but I disagree that anything has been proven yet. I think should be wary in using the regular season to judge a Golden State team that doesn't care about the regular season. We'll see if Houston can hang with them in the playoffs. Maybe so, but I'm still waiting to see. Golden State only has one impactful injury at this point and that may be resolved by round 2. The rest of these injuries are just them getting people healthy for the playoffs. And trust me, I hope Golden State struggles, but I still think they're arguably the most talented team in NBA history.

That’s fine and all but the’re currently down 62-33 to the Lakers at the half. Just saying they’re more vulnerable this season than they have been in the past few.

Warriors toughest games this season were against OKC and Utah. It just so happens to work out, that if they lost this game against the Jazz - that it would be impossible for them to match up against the Thunder or Jazz in round 1.

Tinfoil hat engaged, I have a hard time believing these Warriors "lost" to the Jazz by 40.

Interesting theory.

Okay just went though the standings and I think this is the only scenario now:

OKC is essentially guaranteed to play the Jazz in round 1. If Thunder wins against Memphis, they play Jazz. If they lose against Memphis, we play Rockets.

The real interesting thing is if the Jazz lose to Portland tomorrow and we beat Memphis, we get the homecourt by being 4th and Jazz falls to 5th.

If the Warriors make it out of Round 1 and they can be mostly healthy at the beginning in the 2nd round, they will not lose more than 4 games this post-season.

Now that the 7 seed is an impossibility, OKC needs to win tomorrow and hopefully have some things go their way for the 4 seed.

Houston lost Luc Mbah a Moute tonight. He’s a really important part of what I do and will be a big loss for them.

Barring a Memphis collapse, OKC - Utah should be a great series.