Welcome to May. Most of the state is now above normal rainfall track for the year. The last few weeks of storm systems have dumped heavy rains over much of the area and creeks and lakes are full.

Overall for the area, currently Central Oklahoma is +5.69" of rain over normal.

Next shot @ measurable rainfall will be Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

Currently, the long-range outlook shows the next solid rain chance coming in around the 10th of May. In terms of temperatures, very spring-like air will be in place with highs in the 70s and low 80s.

Next shot at severe weather appears to be the second half of May until then things seem fairly quiet except some garden variety storms.

Should see storms develop in NW OK. These will attempt to backbuild south into OK. Best shot is northern OK, but likely some clipping showers/storms cutting through C OK overnight.

EDIT: Storms are firing now in TX PH and NW OK, look for complex to develop and swing eastward. Damaging wind will be main threat.

This has been a really quiet spring. I wonder if we will get into our typical severe weather pattern, or if it will be like a few years ago? Lots or rain through May/June then too hot to get any severe weather. I think our TV stars (meteorologists...ahem...) are getting antsy though!

This has been a really quiet spring. I wonder if we will get into our typical severe weather pattern, or if it will be like a few years ago? Lots or rain through May/June then too hot to get any severe weather. I think our TV stars (meteorologists...ahem...) are getting antsy though!

I know models are hinting that the weather pattern will become more favorable for severe weather in Mid May. So there is a chance the last part of May is more active.

Finally, a beautiful spring weekend shaping up. The best part, LIGHT WINDS!! This will likely be one of those "damn, remember that weekend" weekends.

Like mentioned a few days ago, May 10 timeframe is next action spot.

Finally, a beautiful spring weekend shaping up. The best part, LIGHT WINDS!! This will likely be one of those "damn, remember that weekend" weekends.

What??? I don't know how to fish in anything less than a 40 MPH wind any more! ;)

Damon Lane is predicting a below average month for tornadoes.

Oklahoma springs have been quite active since 2010, with the exception of our quiet year in 2014. It really will not be that unusual at all, given the past several years, if this year ends up being on the quiet side. The state averages (23 tornadoes for May) factors in crazy years like 2013 and 2015 as well as unusually quiet years like 2005 and 2014. In the 2000s, there were a string of quieter years, lasting from roughly 2004 through 2007, that make this decade look like pandemonium in comparison. I hope a quiet season is what pans out.

Damon Lane is predicting a below average month for tornadoes.

Oklahoma springs have been quite active since 2010, with the exception of our quiet year in 2014. It really will not be that unusual at all, given the past several years, if this year ends up being on the quiet side. The state averages (23 tornadoes for May) factors in crazy years like 2013 and 2015 as well as unusually quiet years like 2005 and 2014. In the 2000s, there were a string of quieter years, lasting from roughly 2004 through 2007, that make this decade look like pandemonium in comparison. I hope a quiet season is what pans out.

Yeah, I wouldn't put too much stock into this prediction.

Yeah, I wouldn't put too much stock into this prediction.
Why? Because it goes against your doomsday hopes and dreams?

Is it just me or is it colder than usual, especially lows?

All night smoke this weekend is going to be pleasant. Going to sit on the back porch with the dog and relax by the heater just in case.

I hope everyone has a great weekend.

All night smoke this weekend is going to be pleasant. Going to sit on the back porch with the dog and relax by the heater just in case.

I hope everyone has a great weekend.

Yea, I finally have a weekend to smoke some ribs and bologna. I'm excited.

So to completely derail the weather thread....I took advantage of it and did this....

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So to completely derail the weather thread....I took advantage of it and did this....

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A work of art.

That looks amazing.

New week, new storms. Wednesday is a muddy setup. With likely early day convection out in the TX PH and across W OK. There is potential for these storms to be strong, and severe. But it could setup for a larger threat later that afternoon if clearing and re-destabilization can occur.

The current forecast track of the low favors a potential dry-slotting for C OK, so may not get much rain out of this if storms cannot hold together out of the TX PH. The entire system comes out Thursday evening and sags to the SE, giving potential heavy rain to NE OK.

This will setup for a cooler day on Friday, and another potentially beautiful weekend.

Looks like we will be finally transitioning into a more stormy typical May pattern of SW flow starting next week.. Stay tuned

A cluster of storms will be coming out of NM and into the TX PH overnight. These will slowly decay as they slide northeast into W and NW OK. This early morning convection and cold-pool left behind will set the stage for potential evening development, or kill it completely.

If clearing and instability come back behind the early convection, we could see some supercell development from SW OK back up into the TX PH. Will watch closely tomorrow.

Morning update: Severe threat increasing a bit for this evening. As I previously posted above, so far the exact scenario is playing out to encourage the development of supercell storms across SW OK and the eastern TX PH.

Dewpoints are already near 70F across much of the state. Providing massive fuel for anything that can develop later today. Obviously I will keep you updated throughout the day as to whether or not we see action.

What time do you think things could fire up in Central Oklahoma.... I rolled my monster truck, all-terrain, raised garden bed under my porch when I left for work this morning after looking at radar but I'd like to have the wife roll it back out to get some sun, if there's going to be any, if it's safe.

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Central OK won't see action until this evening. Likely after dark.

Central OK won't see action until this evening. Likely after dark.

Thanks... My vegetables appreciate the quick response!

https://youtu.be/jmGAQNMumvc

NWS Noon update

A few smaller showers have developed across the state. These will not be significant.

On the other side of these showers, back to the SW - a potential dangerous situation is developing with clearing ahead of the boundary in southwest OK and NW TX. This is the area of concern for supercells.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0684.gif

Mesoscale Discussion 0684
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0214 PM CDT Wed May 10 2017

Areas affected...portions of the TX Low Rolling Plains...southeast
TX Panhandle...southwest and west-central OK

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely

Valid 101914Z - 102015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Convective initiation is expected initially near a triple
point near the Caprock 50 miles northeast of Lubbock. Additional
storms are forecast to develop and intensify to severe levels.
Large to very large hail will be possible with the discrete
supercells. A tornado risk will probably maximize during the 23-02Z
period.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar/satellite imagery indicates initial storm
development is occurring near a triple point 50 miles northeast of
Lubbock on the Caprock. Subjective surface analysis delineates an
outflow boundary from the triple point northeast through southwest
OK. A bulging dryline extends south into the Pecos River Valley. A
reservoir of 64-69 degrees F dewpoints resides east of the dryline
and south of the outflow boundary. Heating into the middle 80s
southwest to the upper 70s farther northeast into parts of central
OK will result in 2500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE and a very unstable boundary
layer. Strong southwesterly mid- to high-level flow associated with
an approaching upper jet streak will strongly favor supercells (some
supercell splitting expected) atop generally modest low-level shear.


Very large CAPE in the hail growth layer (-10 to -30 degrees C) and
ample lofting of hydrometeors imply very large to giant hail (2-3.5
inches in diameter) is possible with the most intense supercells.
The risk for a tornado will probably be most favorable in a corridor
near the modifying outflow boundary. A strengthening in low-level
flow is expected towards the early evening and a corresponding
enlargement in the hodograph is forecast (0-1 km SRH 100-200 m2/s2)
from a minimum in hodograph size around 21Z.

Short-term models suggest isolated to widely scattered supercells
evolving and moving northeast into southwest OK from northwest TX.
Additional more isolated activity is possible farther northeast
along the outflow boundary in OK per models.

..Smith/Guyer.. 05/10/2017

Tornado watch is out for basically SW of the OKC area and down into NW TX.

The mist and showers here in C OK have lowered temperatures significantly.

The main severe storm that was producing tornadoes earlier is headed right into C OK this evening, but the main threat will be wind and hail as the storm will likely begin to dissipate as it heads into the rain-cooled air.

Storm coming into OKC now. Severe warning on it, strong winds. Maybe some small hail. Nice rain.

Awkward setup today with the low due to track southeast across the state from western KS.

Depending on how much daytime heating can occur in these morning and early afternoon cloud-breaks will determine the severity of development. At this time the best shot is from around I-40 and north, and then I-35 and east. Storms will be capable of producing large hail and could have tornado potential with isolated cells that interact with weird boundaries scattered throughout the state.

These cells will be spinning around a tight, main low that sags south and east, predictability of development locations and cell paths will be nearly impossible. Everyone in C, N, and E OK should all stay alert for this afternoon and evening.

Watch has been issued:

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0208_radar.gif

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1255 PM CDT Thu May 11 2017

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Northwest Arkansas
Southern Kansas
Southwest Missouri
North-central and eastern Oklahoma

* Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 1255 PM
until 900 PM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events
to 3 inches in diameter possible
Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
A tornado or two possible

SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms are expected to develop and increase
this afternoon, initially across north-central and northeast OK
along and north-northeast of a surface low and residual outflow
boundary. These storms will spread into additional parts of eastern
OK, southern KS, southwest MO, and western AR through late afternoon
and early evening. Large hail should be the most common threat, but
locally damaging winds will also be possible along with some tornado
risk, mainly near the residual outflow boundary across parts of
north-central to northeast/east-central OK.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60
statute miles north and south of a line from 15 miles west of Enid
OK to 30 miles east northeast of Fayetteville AR. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
25025.

...Guyer

Severe thunderstorm watch until 9 pm. It does NOT include Oklahoma County:

Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Issued: May 11 at 12:55PM CDT
Expiring: May 11 at 9:00PM CDT Urgency: Expected
Status: Actual
Areas affected:Adair; Alfalfa; Cherokee; Craig; Creek; Delaware; Garfield; Grant; Haskell; Kay; Kingfisher; Latimer; Le Flore; Lincoln; Logan; Major; Mayes; McIntosh; Muskogee; Noble; Nowata; Okfuskee; Okmulgee; Osage; Ottawa; Pawnee; Payne; Pittsburg; Rogers; Sequoyah; Tulsa; Wagoner; Washington

Area Covered:

http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/png/oun.png

Area from Perkins to near Stillwater needs to stay alert. This large supercell is riding along the boundary and could ramp up very easily. Tornado potential is still a possibility with this cell.

As for the rest of C OK, OKC will be in the clear for the severe stuff, may get some wrap-around thunderstorm/rain showers later this evening as the low continues moving ESE.

Tornado warning in effect for that cell now. Stillwater needs to prepare for cover.

South of that, near Perkins and slightly south of Perkins, you will receive baseball+ size hail.

Tornado threat lowering for Stillwater. And now ramping up for town of Perkins and points east/northeast in toward Cushing.

Reports of rain wrapped tornado headed into Stillwater from the west. Reports are iffy, but take precautions.

Also the cell south of there in Perkins that I mentioned above is also tornado-warned now.

Tornado sirens have been sounding in Stillwater with moderate to heavy rain. Not much thunder and lightening. Fortunately, it looks on radar most of Stillwater will stay between the worst parts of two storms. Towns getting the brunt, like Perkins, Ripley, and Glencoe need to be concerned.

Tornado warnings have expired for now. Storms are beginning to become more linear.

Intense there for about an hour.

This was the view looking east from the 8100 block NW 119 (in OKC) about 3 PM today!

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This was the view looking east from the 8100 block NW 119 (in OKC) about 3 PM today!

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Beautiful picture, Jim. I caught this one at Britton and I-235 right about that same time as the storm in the Stillwater area was under a tornado warning. It's not nearly as pretty as yours.

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Looking at the 90 Day Rainfall totals this morning after yet another rain opportunity bypasses our land near the Arbuckles.

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It's starting to look like we are going to have our own personal desert right at Woodford... 3" difference in rainfall around us... A 3" rain is about 4' of water elevation in my pond which is about 6' low right now compared to last year.

^^ I wouldn't start writing a book about the drought just yet.

A trend toward severe weather and flooding rainfall is ramping up beginning about the middle of next week.

Here is the GFS projected rainfall over the next two weeks:

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017051206/gfs_apcpn_scus_52.png

LOL.... Yeah, we still have about a month and a half of rainy season... I'm not going to believe it until I see it though.... We've had several 3"+ predictions and that one little spot on the map keeps getting missed.... Fortunately I have a huge drainage basin that flows into my pond.... So I just need one good rain to actually move over us and I'll be at capacity.

Insanely beautiful rainbow last night followed by the extra added bonus of a double rainbow:

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Sorry I can't figure out how to rotate the last two photos.

Sorry I can't figure out how to rotate the last two photos.

You just cock your head to the left. ;)

Works for me! It's funny, because in iPhoto they're all upright. Something happens when I attach them here.

Works for me! It's funny, because in iPhoto they're all upright. Something happens when I attach them here.

I've had the same thing happen when posting pics straight from my iPhone.... Someone explained it on another thread but I don't remember the explanation... lol

Took these pictures while driving home on I-40 and I-44 last evening.

https://scontent.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/18446663_10154765723234200_1528868715161765887_n.j pg?oh=2214b42d03c0903b89853fc08aaf3863&oe=59C01747

I've had the same thing happen when posting pics straight from my iPhone.... Someone explained it on another thread but I don't remember the explanation... lol

http://www.okctalk.com/showthread.php?t=40739&p=966799#post966799

Snip it from NWS Norman from this afternoons forecast discussion on next week.

An active weather pattern is expected to
begin early next week and continue through the entire week. Severe
thunderstorms are a growing concern for Tuesday, and potentially
later in the week as well.

You got the formation that was just out of my picture to the left. The towers I got lasted only about 10 minutes or so. By the time I got down to the NW Highway they had become much smaller!

Isn't June traditionally our rainiest month? Which is crazy I always think about April/May being wetter than June.

Isn't June traditionally our rainiest month? Which is crazy I always think about April/May being wetter than June.

May is typically the wettest month followed by June,

http://www.okctalk.com/showthread.php?t=40739&p=966799#post966799

Thanks, tfvc.org!

Well it looks like any hope of this week being of the higher end severe weather event is failing us and it is looking more like a dud now. Only hope is that hopefully Thursday will bring us some good stuff. This has really turned out to be a boring spring so far weather wise.

Boring is fine with me.

Well it looks like any hope of this week being of the higher end severe weather event is failing us and it is looking more like a dud now. Only hope is that hopefully Thursday will bring us some good stuff. This has really turned out to be a boring spring so far weather wise.

Well, would it be considered exciting if your house were in the line of fire? Otherwise, I am ok with boring.

Well it looks like any hope of this week being of the higher end severe weather event is failing us and it is looking more like a dud now. Only hope is that hopefully Thursday will bring us some good stuff. This has really turned out to be a boring spring so far weather wise.
We lost our house and everything we owned in the May 3, 1999 tornado. I vote boring every year.

Bring on boring!

Isn't June traditionally our rainiest month? Which is crazy I always think about April/May being wetter than June.

You are correct. June is the rainiest month in Oklahoma on average.