FLOOD WATCH OUT FOR NEARLY ALL WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE STATE. INCLUDES OKC.

Area Affected In Green:

http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/png/oun.png
Alfalfa - Atoka - Beckham - Blaine - Bryan - Caddo - Canadian - Carter - Cleveland - Coal - Comanche - Cotton - Custer - Dewey - Ellis - Garfield - Garvin - Grady - Grant - Greer - Harmon - Hughes - Jackson - Jefferson - Johnston - Kay - Kingfisher - Kiowa - Lincoln - Logan - Love - Major - Marshall - McClain - Murray - Noble - Oklahoma - Payne - Pontotoc - Pottawatomie - Roger Mills - Seminole - Stephens - Tillman - Wa****a - Woods - Woodward.

Effective: Thu, 5/18 11:06am Updated: Thu, 5/18 11:27am Urgency: Future
Expires: Tue, 5/23 7:00am Severity: Moderate Certainty: Possible

Details:

...Periods of Heavy Rainfall Expected Through Saturday Morning...
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING...
The National Weather Service in Norman has issued a
* Flood Watch for flash flooding...flooding of creeks and
rivers...and flooding of low lying areas for portions of
Oklahoma and northern Texas, including the following areas, in
Oklahoma, Alfalfa, Atoka, Beckham, Blaine, Bryan, Caddo,
Canadian, Carter, Cleveland, Coal, Comanche, Cotton, Custer,
Dewey, Ellis, Garfield, Garvin, Grady, Grant, Greer, Harmon,
Hughes, Jackson, Jefferson, Johnston, Kay, Kingfisher, Kiowa,
Lincoln, Logan, Love, Major, Marshall, McClain, Murray, Noble,
Oklahoma, Payne, Pontotoc, Pottawatomie, Roger Mills,
Seminole, Stephens, Tillman, Wa****a, Woods, and Woodward. In
northern Texas, Archer, Baylor, Clay, Foard, Hardeman, Knox,
Wichita, and Wilbarger.

* From 7 PM CDT this evening through Saturday morning
* Areas of 3 to 5 inches of rain are expected by Saturday morning
with higher amounts possible in some locations.
Precautionary/preparedness actions...
A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on
current forecasts.

You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible
Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be
prepared to take action should flooding develop.

Do yourself a favor and banish Mike "Drive South" Morgan from your weather repertoire.

He said "drive south" in response to a F-5 tornado. Such tornadoes can easily destroy everything, leaving only the slab foundation. Would you be brave enough to stay in your house when it's in the path of a F5 tornado, especially if there was no storm shelter?

He said "drive south" in response to a F-5 tornado. Such tornadoes can easily destroy everything, leaving only the slab foundation. Would you be brave enough to stay in your house when it's in the path of a F5 tornado, especially if there was no storm shelter?

And a car is so much *better* a choice.....especially when driving into the jam he had no small hand in creating, and making them all sitting ducks. It was one of the singularly most irresponsible things ever spewed by an OKC weatherman.

Thanks for the explanation. So, only really strong storms/tornadoes will turn east. The tornado dictates this, not the atmosphere?

The CAPE is pretty high from my understanding. From the traditional set up of a dryline & cold front, does the CAPE determine the severity/intensity? So, the CAPE is high which correlates to a potential strong tornado therefore could change the boundary cuasing the storm to move east? I am assuming there are a lot of other factors including shear.

And a car is so much *better* a choice.....especially when driving into the jam he had no small hand in creating, and making them all sitting ducks. It was one of the singularly most irresponsible things ever spewed by an OKC weatherman.

Yes and the station had him out on a 2 week leave after that. He also said to get under ground if possible. Resulting in several deaths from residents choosing to hide under a bridge that later flooded.

I may be misremembering but I'm pretty sure I remember him saying if you aren't underground when this hits you will probably die. That's hard to hear for people.

Yes and the station had him out on a 2 week leave after that. He also said to get under ground if possible. Resulting in several deaths from residents choosing to hide under a bridge that later flooded.

Common sense and the fact being people make their own choices need to be taken into account. The weatherman didn't force anyone to do anything. People acted based upon his statements, but those were their actions.

We have a very typical versus debate going regarding this Mike Morgan who I see referenced all the time. I'm not defending him because I don't know him, nor do I listen to him. But I do see where he may have a villainous aura around him that may or may not be entirely brought upon due to his excitement and antics. Those of course, are things he needs to work on and understand he has a responsibility up to a point.

Thanks for the explanation. So, only really strong storms/tornadoes will turn east. The tornado dictates this, not the atmosphere?

The CAPE is pretty high from my understanding. From the traditional set up of a dryline & cold front, does the CAPE determine the severity/intensity? So, the CAPE is high which correlates to a potential strong tornado therefore could change the boundary cuasing the storm to move east? I am assuming there are a lot of other factors including shear.

CAPE indicates the amount of energy in the atmosphere available for lifting - the kind of lifting storms need for "fuel." Think of it as a way of expressing how eager the atmosphere is to rise (convect). The more an airmass is heated, the more energy it has, the more conducive it is to lifting. (CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy). Look also at lapse rates, which simply reflects how rapidly an airmass is cooling as you ascend in the atmosphere - that's also an aid in lifting.

The more a storm lifts, the more powerful it gets in general; as winds aloft, at the surface, and mid-levels affect the storm, they can cause it to start to turn and twist (hence the term "mesocyclone" or "large scale rotation"), creating the interior updrafts and downdrafts that cause hailstones as water droplets are continually kicked up to the below-freezing air at the top of the storm, then fall back down, collect more water, then are kicked back up.

Anon can obviously correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe a storm's right-turn change in movement is more a function of the massive wind and airflow forces around it and converging on itself than the presence of a tornado itself, although the more violent variety can surely contribute to that effect.

I may be misremembering but I'm pretty sure I remember him saying if you aren't underground when this hits you will probably die. That's hard to hear for people.

Pretty sure that was Gary England for the May 3, 1999 storm.

Thanks for the explanation. So, only really strong storms/tornadoes will turn east. The tornado dictates this, not the atmosphere?

The CAPE is pretty high from my understanding. From the traditional set up of a dryline & cold front, does the CAPE determine the severity/intensity? So, the CAPE is high which correlates to a potential strong tornado therefore could change the boundary cuasing the storm to move east? I am assuming there are a lot of other factors including shear.

Tornadoes do not dictate the path of the storm cell. Remember, a supercell is just a giant spinning storm. Tornadoes form as a result of the supercell.

Pretty sure that was Gary England for the May 3, 1999 storm.

This phrasing has been used multiple times by local OKC mets. Every time I recall, it was used in a situation where imminent probable impact was expected by a historically long-lived destructive tornado. I believe during the infamous "drive south" event, that mets were saying phrasing similar to "you will die" if you stay in the path of this tornado. But I believe it was more along the lines of "in order to survive this tornado..." Semantics at that point.

Towers rapidly going up across NW TX. I expect a traditional tornado watch to be issued down here. Then a PDS watch to go into effect later on further north that will encompass a large swath of SW OK into SW KS.

Yes and the station had him out on a 2 week leave after that. He also said to get under ground if possible. Resulting in several deaths from residents choosing to hide under a bridge that later flooded.

The folks that drowned were not hiding under a bridge. They got in a drainage pipe under a highway during a torrential downpour. That's not on Mike Morgan or any other met.

The folks that drowned were not hiding under a bridge. They got in a drainage pipe under a highway during a torrential downpour. That's not on Mike Morgan or any other met.

They were also new to the area and hadn't learned procedures about tornadoes and flash flooding...

The area in red is initial area of concern, with the blue becoming a greater concern later on.

http://i.imgur.com/UKDK8gk.jpg

Chats up. Everybody's welcome.

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/live-chat/

PDS watch is out:

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0235_radar.gif

Tornado Watch Number 235
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
115 PM CDT Thu May 18 2017

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of
western Oklahoma
western north Texas

* Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 115 PM until
800 PM CDT.

...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

* Primary threats include...
Several tornadoes and a few intense tornadoes likely
Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events
to 4 inches in diameter possible
Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80
mph possible

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are forecast to develop/increase rapidly
over the next 1-2 hours across eastern portions of the Texas
Panhandle and into western Oklahoma and western north Texas,
spreading northeastward with time. Multiple rounds of storm
redevelopment will be possible over western parts of the watch. In
addition to the risk for very large/damaging hail and locally
damaging winds, tornadoes -- a couple likely to be
significant/intense -- are expected.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles
east and west of a line from 15 miles west northwest of Alva OK to
75 miles west southwest of Wichita Falls TX. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 4 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 23040.

...Goss

Do we have an ETA on both rounds? I've got tickets to the Lion King at 7:30 and really don't want to be away from home and basement if this stuff is going to be during that window.

If you are speaking of OKC. As early as 4-5pm. Then perhaps more later.

If you are speaking of OKC. As early as 4-5pm. Then perhaps more later.

Yes, OKC. Thanks, Anon!

Current storm evolution down in SW OK suggest more isolated convection. We should see some more storms pop up all across the western half of OK in the next hour or two, which will determine the severity of this unfolding event.

If things stay more isolated, the situation becomes much more dangerous.

The chat is live so updates here will become less frequent as this becomes nowcast event.

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/live-chat/


Side note for Friday. At this time, I see a likely upgrade to Moderate risk across central OK.

The chat is live so updates here will become less frequent as this becomes nowcast event.

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/live-chat/



Anon, the link above appears to indicate the live chat now requires a WordPress account - is this correct? Or is something awry?

Edit: Don't know if anyone else is having issues wtih WordPress linking, but it's sending me in circles with strange errors. Am I the only one?

There is a lot of people in chat, so I think it is your browser. Maybe try another.

Anon, the link above appears to indicate the live chat now requires a WordPress account - is this correct? Or is something awry?

Edit: Don't know if anyone else is having issues wtih WordPress linking, but it's sending me in circles with strange errors. Am I the only one?

Did you try going to the front page of the site? Maybe copy and pasting just weatherspotlight? I'm not having issues.

Tried w/2 diff browsers and it won't link my acct. Sigh.

Tried w/2 diff browsers and it won't link my acct. Sigh.

For IOS devices, I use an app called ChatWing. Once I enter the chat room address, it works great. Much better than a browser.

Holy cow!

I thought all the more crazy weather had passed and decided to take the dogs for a quick run and as soon as we got to the field the winds went nuts and literally blew me off my feet! Like 70 MPH type gusts.

I quickly corralled them and hustled on home...

So much for hoping for more interesting weather! That was a bit scary.

Holy cow!

I thought all the more crazy weather had passed and decided to take the dogs for a quick run and as soon as we got to the field the winds went nuts and literally blew me off my feet! Like 70 MPH type gusts.

I quickly corralled them and hustled on home...

So much for hoping for more interesting weather! That was a bit scary.

Yea, when the gusts are able to literally take the breath out of you, you quickly tuck your tail between your legs and let Mother Nature rule the day.

After the thundershower passed, which yielded .06", the wind on my gauge gusted up to 39 mph for the new highest peak, so far, for May. The sunset was nicer than usual.

My very crappy rain gauge in harrah shows a half inch of rain and we had to have 70ish mph winds. It almost took the grill off the porch and threw my lawn chairs into the neighbors yard.

What are your thoughts on tomorrow? Aaron Tuttle just gave a very ominous forecast. We very well might be looking at another high risk and PDS watch, except tomorrow the OKC metro will be the focus instead of western Oklahoma. He also stated that EF4+ tornadoes look likely tomorrow for central Oklahoma.

You have to love these La Nina springs. Eerily quiet in April and then May hits with a vengeance.

The stuff I heard earlier is tomorrow could be as potent as today but it all depended on how quickly the atmosphere recovered in this area.

What are your thoughts on tomorrow? Aaron Tuttle just gave a very ominous forecast. We very well might be looking at another high risk and PDS watch, except tomorrow the OKC metro will be the focus instead of western Oklahoma. He also stated that EF4+ tornadoes look likely tomorrow for central Oklahoma.

You have to love these La Nina springs. Eerily quiet in April and then May hits with a vengeance.

From what I've seen, it really depends on whether we have rain in the morning or not. Not sure why he didn't mention that. Aaron hypes things up in subtle ways while pretending he's an angel.

The stuff I heard earlier is tomorrow could be as potent as today but it all depended on how quickly the atmosphere recovered in this area.

Hopefully there is just enough "junk" remaining to keep temperatures down and the threat lower. One of the models shows a classic setup of supercells firing around Chickasha, moving up the H.E. Bailey threatening Moore. We won't know for sure though until tomorrow because the current models don't take into account the impact today's storms had on the atmosphere.

Mike Morgan's forecast was anything but hype tonight. Pretty refreshing if you ask me.

Multiple tornadoes reported throughout E/NE OK tonight. The morning will tell the greater story as much of tonights events were rain wrapped.

Pretty solid hail storm Just now on the far NW side

I am traveling back to okc today from west Texas. I'm trying to leave early enough to avoid any storms that may pop up. I can take I40 or 44. Any idea about what time the storms will pop up?

Plan was to head to the cabin at the Arbuckles this evening but after looking at 1 Day Tornado and Hail outlook rethinking that.

Any chance this rain in the SW part of the state this morning wrecks this evenings chances of severe weather? What time does the SPC update the Day 1 outlooks.... My travel decisions today are all be controlled by the weather obviously and I have a storm shelter here but not at the cabin... Only option at the cabin is flash flood prone creeks.

Some fast moving storms coming off the outflow of the complex down in TX will likely impact C OK this morning. This will help to soften the instability potential for today. Flooding rain will be the primary threat this morning.

Some fast moving storms coming off the outflow of the complex down in TX will likely impact C OK this morning. This will help to soften the instability potential for today. Flooding rain will be the primary threat this morning.

Looks like small hail from El Reno to Clinton already this morning. That was fast!

Is there going to be another round of rain this afternoon or tonight ? The system seems to have pulled to the Northeast ?

Yes, development taking place now to the SW of OKC. This will move in over the next hour or so.

Well, so much for that guesstimated 2-4" rain through SAT. All the development is on a track for maybe skirting the far SE metro.

Yes, the boundary of all the flooding rain setup further east than forecast. Some places just SE of OKC have already had almost 7 inches of rain.

With occasional rumble of thunder, the western back side of tonight's rain is finally making it through Stillwater.

Got the 4" I needed to fill my pond at Woodford. Haven't made it up to the pond to see if I'm over the spillway(s) but the creek is out of the banks. Not the worst flooding I've seen here though.

What a dud at least for the metro, 2-4 inches....................pfft.

What a dud at least for the metro, 2-4 inches....................pfft.

I got enough water to help the fertilizer on my new yard. No hail damage, no tornado, no flood. I'm good.

I got enough water to help the fertilizer on my new yard. No hail damage, no tornado, no flood. I'm good.

Me too. Got my back yard fertilized, gave it a basic watering, then we got more overnight rainfall, had a day off, then more rainfall...all but ideal. My backyard is in terrible shape this year, so hopefully this will give it a kickstart. Now I've just got to figure out how to get my tomato plants to start setting tomatoes instead of just blossoms that don't do anything LOL :)

And this evening was just a gem. Wow.

What a lovely weekend, but of course the armchair forecasters are already hyping up this coming up Friday as the next big one. We're so so far out though.

What a lovely weekend, but of course the armchair forecasters are already hyping up this coming up Friday as the next big one. We're so so far out though.

I haven't seen that. News9 was talking about a possible severe setup over Memorial Day weekend however. It is still so far out though. Statistically, our chances of having a high-end outbreak should start diminishing. While technically severe season in Oklahoma lasts until the middle of June, usually it seems like the highest threats start to move north. There are always oddball late-season outbreaks like 5/31/13 and 6/13/98, but hopefully we are past peak for this year.

This year has been weird and out of phase with normal years, so I could easily see severe storm season being held over until the end of June or maybe July.

This year has been weird and out of phase with normal years, so I could easily see severe storm season being held over until the end of June or maybe July.

Just wishful thinking on your part.

Just wishful thinking on your part.

No I don't think so

Just wishful thinking on your part.

This.

Next weekend's severe threat is starting to fizzle out. Once we get into June, it gets a lot more difficult to have a high-end event. It can happen (anybody remember June 13, 1998) but it's not near as common as in May.

Great Memorial weekend shaping up. It will be HOT today and Saturday. SW OK will likely be in the low 100s.

Chance of storms popping up right overhead on Saturday evening in C OK, but mainly an eastern OK event.

Rain chances for C OK move back in around middle of this coming week.

Weathermen have been calling for moderate chances for baseball to grapefruit sized hail for NE OK on Saturday.