Well it looks like any hope of this week being of the higher end severe weather event is failing us and it is looking more like a dud now. Only hope is that hopefully Thursday will bring us some good stuff. This has really turned out to be a boring spring so far weather wise.

Bring on the dud. Seriously. I don't want my car looking like a windowless golf ball or my house looking like someone with too many artillery shells got bored.

Besides the lower tornado count, this season hasn't really been that quiet. There has been lots of flooding and a couple of hail and wind events.

This week and early next week at the very least looks like more of the same.

As of this morning Channel 4 predicting 3 inches of rain in central Oklahoma this week.

SPC continues to focus on tomorrow and Thursday as the highest probabilities for severe weather this week.

Western Oklahoma is in an Enhanced region that extends northward through central/western Kansas, and expectation persists that storms will fire in advance of the dryline in west Texas tomorrow afternoon/evening and move NE into western Oklahoma and into Kansas. The discussion does tend to emphasis the hail/wind thread, but certainly does not eliminate the tornado risk.

Central OK is in a 15% region for Thursday, although the setup then is not as clear as tomorrow's, due to some uncertainties regarding moisture availability in advance of the dryline. It sounds like one of those scenarios that if something does get enough fuel to fire up on Thursday, it'll get strong pretty readily.

Friday's setup is structurally similar, but the dryline is forecast not to be as sharp and the low not as strong, mitigating the opportunity for larger storm development as things stand now.

Flooding will most likely be the headliner this week. I already have to replace my living room floor because of last weeks heavy rains.

Bring on boring! Amen, brother!

I think we can all agree that nobody wants anyone hurt physically or financially but I can understand the desire for some interesting weather.

After not really experiencing weather of any sort for most of the 25 years I spent in California, I really love the thunderstorms and the winter weather. The last two winters here have been very non eventful.

But I have to say my poor dogs absolutely hate the loud thunder. My older dog in particular crawls into my lap and shakes and it's both sweet and sad. And she weights 80 pounds!

If everyday could be like this past weekend, I'd be happy as a clam.

I think we can all agree that nobody wants anyone hurt physically or financially but I can understand the desire for some interesting weather.

After not really experiencing weather of any sort for most of the 25 years I spent in California, I really love the thunderstorms and the winter weather. The last two winters here have been very non eventful.

But I have to say my poor dogs absolutely hate the loud thunder. My older dog in particular crawls into my lap and shakes and it's both sweet and sad. And she weights 80 pounds!

Oh sure, a change in the weather is almost always welcome (and interesting)--having lived in both SoCal and Florida, I can attest I do enjoy the change-ups!

if everyday could be like this past weekend, i'd be happy as a clam.

amen!

If everyday could be like this past weekend, I'd be happy as a clam.

And thirsty as a Camel.

Oh sure, a change in the weather is almost always welcome (and interesting)--having lived in both SoCal and Florida, I can attest I do enjoy the change-ups!

This sounds so lame but perhaps you can relate... The monotonous weather was actually depressing to me.

I remember going months without even seeing a cloud, let alone having any real change.

And with the recent drought, even the winters offered little in the way of rain or anything else.

I love the rain in particular but would also like to see more snow in the coming years.

This sounds so lame but perhaps you can relate... The monotonous weather was actually depressing to me.

I remember going months without even seeing a cloud, let alone having any real change.

And with the recent drought, even the winters offered little in the way of rain or anything else.

I love the rain in particular but would also like to see more snow in the coming years.

I was never really depressed about it, but I love four distinct (albeit mild here) seasons and we have it in OKC! I love that we never have days and days of cold and snow, but that we can get a cold blast and a snow every once in a while. And when that first cool air of the fall comes in around late September, the change is always welcome after a long, hot, dry couple of months in July and August. It's just nice to have something different to let you know you are progressing through a year! SoCal was really boring, and Florida was too, although in FL when the heat finally breaks in December and then the daily thunderstorms return around Memorial Day it was always fun...and about the only change you got down there!

I guess I have never understood the mindset of liking the crazy, destructive Oklahoma weather when it occurs so close to home. Not that it it's a bad thing, it's just not something I can wrap my mind around. I understand the chasers who drive out to the middle of nowhere to storm spot, but I dread these storms going into populated areas like what happened on May 20 and May 31, 2013. Different strokes for different folks though. When you spend your entire life in Oklahoma and are used to the crazy weather, I guess that weather in other parts of the country can feel boring in comparison.

Will do a more detailed update tomorrow. But it looks like supercells will develop across the TX PH and and SW OK and move north and east. Large hail will be primary threat out here along the dryline. Then as night falls, the storms will likely evolve into a cluster or line and pose a damaging wind threat to C OK.

Will do a more detailed update tomorrow. But it looks like supercells will develop across the TX PH and and SW OK and move north and east. Large hail will be primary threat out here along the dryline. Then as night falls, the storms will likely evolve into a cluster or line and pose a damaging wind threat to C OK.

It definitely seems like damaging wind has been the thing this year for C OK. It's starting to look like Thursday might be that way as well. I'll take it over tornadoes. This kind of reminds me of the 2002 season.

It definitely seems like damaging wind has been the thing this year for C OK. It's starting to look like Thursday might be that way as well. I'll take it over tornadoes. This kind of reminds me of the 2002 season.

Depends on how strong the winds are when they come through. If the are 80+ then that is like having a small tornado go through an area but the winds are more spread out across a larger area and therefore cause more damage in most cases then a small end tornado would in it relatively small area it goes through. At this point I am thinking as far as the metro goes by the time the storms reach OKC area they will be dying down pretty quickly as the encounter a stronger cap over central Oklahoma tonight. Maybe a rumble or two of thunder and some lightning and rain but will be on the weaker side. As for Thursday that seems to be the big day for OKC storms right now but is still a complicated forecast to nail down at this time. Friday we could see storms in and close to OKC as well. But as far as tonights storms go it will really be a non event for okc I am thinking now.

Should see storms firing in the TX panhandle around 4pm. These initial cells ahead of the dryline will likely be supercell in nature and have capabilities of very large hail and isolated tornado potential. These cells will likely die off as they push northeast as we head into the night. More storms will fire just behind these on the actual dryline and will conglomerate into a line of storms that will push east overnight and into C OK. Damaging winds and heavy rainfall are the main threat for OKC.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2017051614/hrrr_ref_frzn_scus_17.png

Upgrade to Moderate for Western OK and OKC is now riding the edge of Enhanced it looks like.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.gif

That graphic makes it a little hard to discern just where OKC is relative to the eastern boundary of the Enhanced risk region. SPC has released a Public Weather Statement with a more detailed map that shows that the Enhanced risk region extends to the western edge of Canadian county. Things appear to be mixing up in the panhandle area for potentially a really rough later afternoon. I'm guessing some of the newer models may be showing some more rapid or intense initiation in the area this afternoon.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/pwo.html

Here's the excerpt from the latest SPC discussion that includes the new Moderate risk area. (emphasis mine)

Low level moisture continues to stream rapidly northward into the TX
Panhandle and western OK, with dewpoints now in the mid 60s across
the region. Model forecast soundings by mid-late afternoon suggest
strong instability will be present with MLCAPE values over 3500 J/kg
and 8 C/km lapse rates. Isolated and discrete convection is
expected to form along the dryline in the TX Panhandle and track
northeastward through the mid-evening. A pocket of strong low-level
shear is forecast to develop in this region, resulting in favorable
hodograph structures for supercells capable of very large hail and
strong tornadoes. Therefore have upgraded this area to MDT risk.

When they start talking about CAPE values in the 3,500 range, that's a TON of energy available for strong storms to build up. Normally things are set up for strong storms even at 2,500. Combine that with the shear they are predicting and that's just a classic setup for big, rotating storms that will probably pop severe very quickly and toss around a bunch of hail. Folks in western OK just need to keep an eye out for how things develop as the day progresses.

Edit: CAPE is a number that expresses how much energy is in the atmosphere that's available to support lift - the ability for an airmass to climb (which is exactly what thunderstorms do). The higher the number, the more unstable the air is, and the more conducive that air is to thunderstorm development.

PDS watch is out for TX PH and extreme western OK. 80% probability for an EF2 or greater tornado.

Western OK just got upgraded to a PDS Tornado Watch within just the last few minutes.

[OOPS: Sorry anon :) ]

The dryline is slightly bulging in the center part of the TX PH, this is particularly concerning with models showing at least 1 large supercell coming across the border. If you have friends/family in places such as Elk City, make sure they are paying attention this evening.

Supercells already going north of Amarillo, but here is a snapshot in a couple hours showing the rest of the panhandle lighting up:

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2017051618/hrrr_ref_frzn_scus_4.png

I wonder if people in Elk City think this year is a "boring" season? Just goes to show how fast things can change.

I'm on the road. But Severe Watch coming for all of C OK. This will go until early morning hours. Flooding threat will be high. Damaging winds will also be possible.

I think Elk City residents are no longer thinking it's anything remotely boring. A sadly ironic post above. My prayers for those folks there.

http://i.imgur.com/aM0xxyx.jpg

NWS has already bumped Thursday to a moderate risk in the west.

I think the setup for Friday is giving the SPC folks some headaches. On the one hand, the fundamental setup for storms is very much present; however, the instability remaining after the Thursday storms and the ability of the atmosphere to recover is very much in question.

Elk City, sorry for calling you out yesterday, I swear it was a coincidence!

Thursday is shaping up to be the real deal across all of W OK and eventually into C OK. Groups of supercells will develop in NW OK down through SW OK. All severe risks look possible with these, large hail and tornadoes being the biggest threat.

Here is an early snapshot of cells developing Thursday evening off of and in front of the dryline:

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2017051706/nam3km_ref_uv10m_scus_42.png

Elk City, sorry for calling you out yesterday, I swear it was a coincidence!


Yeah... I mentioned that to my wife while we were watching the coverage last night.... One of those times you have to regret being right I guess.

Do you think we will see the moderate risk expanded further south and east to include the metro? as far as Friday goes if it ends up like last Tuesday nights storms they have already cleared out and it is sunny this morning so if that's what happends with Thursday evenings storms then Friday is very much in play still.

Apparently had some decent winds at the house last night. Nothing too severe, but it blew all of my yard furniture against the fence, broke tons of branches around the neighborhood, and knocked over a potted plant. Most notably though was my neighbor's trampoline, which is no where to be seen (unless they somehow moved it preemptively, which seems unlikely). Surprised I slept completely through it.

Well it looks like any hope of this week being of the higher end severe weather event is failing us and it is looking more like a dud now. Only hope is that hopefully Thursday will bring us some good stuff. This has really turned out to be a boring spring so far weather wise.

Was the death and destruction in Elk City good enough "stuff" for you? Or are you hoping for more deaths and more destruction closer to OKC?

Do you think we will see the moderate risk expanded further south and east to include the metro? as far as Friday goes if it ends up like last Tuesday nights storms they have already cleared out and it is sunny this morning so if that's what happends with Thursday evenings storms then Friday is very much in play still.

The whole thrust of the Friday SPC outlook revolves around the atmospheric recovery question from Thursday's storms. I don't think there's any consensus on it at this point, but clearly they're opting to hedge a bit rather than go more aggressive - at least that's how I interpret it.

Does the primary tornado threat on Thursday appear to still be in northwestern Oklahoma?

Also, it seems the local TV meteorologists are starting to get a little more bullish on Friday. Earlier in the week, it appeared to be primarily east of I-35.

Does the primary tornado threat on Thursday appear to still be in northwestern Oklahoma?

Also, it seems the local TV meteorologists are starting to get a little more bullish on Friday. Earlier in the week, it appeared to be primarily east of I-35.

It depends on what the storms on Thursday do to the atomosphere......

Does the primary tornado threat on Thursday appear to still be in northwestern Oklahoma?

Also, it seems the local TV meteorologists are starting to get a little more bullish on Friday. Earlier in the week, it appeared to be primarily east of I-35.

Structurally, in terms of the location of fronts and airmass boundaries, the setup for Friday isn't that different from Thursday. What is uncertain is how much the atmosphere will be able to "recover" from the beating it will take with the storms that should form on Thursday afternoon/evening. If that convection takes most of the energy even into the following morning, it necessarily limits the amount of energy/instability available for storms to use as "fuel" on the *next* day. On the other hand, if the atmosphere clears up, and lots of morning heating occurs, the atmosphere will destabilize and promote more thunderstorm development.

Mike Morgan has shifted the moderate risk boundary a little farther east for tomorrow putting it near the metro. SPC still hasn't made this change yet. Is this just Mike Morgan's hyping or is this system looking to be focused a bit farther east than originally expected? Just a few miles will make a difference in terms of whether OKC will see a significant tornado threat.

You can find all of the SPC's risk maps here:

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/

Anything deviating from this is purely from the individual meteorologist.

Mike Morgan has shifted the moderate risk boundary a little farther east for tomorrow putting it near the metro. SPC still hasn't made this change yet. Is this just Mike Morgan's hyping or is this system looking to be focused a bit farther east than originally expected? Just a few miles will make a difference in terms of whether OKC will see a significant tornado threat.

Do yourself a favor and banish Mike "Drive South" Morgan from your weather repertoire.

Do yourself a favor and banish Mike "Drive South" Morgan from your weather repertoire.

While I'm not a fan of Morgan, What he is showing is not that much different from what NWS Norman is showing and I would assume these people talk with the SPC people since they are in the same building? Official day 2 products only come out twice per day and that's by design because they don't want people to overly focus on details a day before. Storms don't care where the red line is drawn across a map or how another guy drew his red line 15 miles closer.

http://www.weather.gov/images/oun/graphicast/image8.png

While I'm not a fan of Morgan, What he is showing is not that much different from what NWS Norman is showing and I would assume these people talk with the SPC people since they are in the same building? Official day 2 products only come out twice per day and that's by design because they don't want people to overly focus on details a day before. Storms don't care where the red line is drawn across a map or how another guy drew his red line 15 miles closer.

http://www.weather.gov/images/oun/graphicast/image8.png

As I understand it, SPC is in Norman, OK. KFOR, KWTV, etc are in far NE OKC. Granted, storms don't know/care about lines on a map. In fairness, most every local met does some variety of their own map and likely uses SPC resources perhaps as a departure point. As far as direct interaction with them goes, I don't know that there's that much formal contact, if any.

Regardless, today is shaping up to be one of those days/evenings in OK, so folks need to just keep track of things...mid/late afternoon for OKC it would seem. Stay safe, everyone....

https://i.imgtc.com/qJAsRJ2.jpg

SPC has upgrade NW OK to a high risk with a 30% hatched tornado risk indicating possibly long strack strong tornadoes likely today in and around that area.

Today definitely is seeming like one of those keep an eye on your apps if you're out and about.

Was reading the SPC summary and they're talking about CAPE values near 4,000. Just a huge amount of instability. Springtime in OK.....

As I understand it, SPC is in Norman, OK. KFOR, KWTV, etc are in far NE OKC. Granted, storms don't know/care about lines on a map. In fairness, most every local met does some variety of their own map and likely uses SPC resources perhaps as a departure point. As far as direct interaction with them goes, I don't know that there's that much formal contact, if any.

Regardless, today is shaping up to be one of those days/evenings in OK, so folks need to just keep track of things...mid/late afternoon for OKC it would seem. Stay safe, everyone....

I was referring to the local NWS forecast office vs the SPC. They had the moderate going as far out as Canadian county.

I was referring to the local NWS forecast office vs the SPC. They had the moderate going as far out as Canadian county.

Oops - my bad. Sorry 'bout that :) I should probably learn to read someday.... :)

Your point regarding map boundaries is very well-taken. The whole map issue could stir up a totally separate discussion about whether difference between a 30% risk and a 15% risk really changes how anyone could or should respond to a severe weather forecast.....

Deer Creek Schools cancels after school Antler Care already

This is the 4th High Risk issuance of 2017. And the first that isn't in the southeastern US since 2014. (2017's 4 High Risks are the only 4 High Risks since 2014)


Models are trying to figure out storm initiation today, but can't make up their minds. As it looks right now, we could see development first into SW OK somewhat early (3-4pm). After this early convection, there could be a break (in the clouds) between the initial storms and the dryline. This will allow for a quick burst of heating before the dryline fires the big boys. As it stands, NW OK is nearly guaranteed to have 3-4 monster supercells that will likely track along very similar paths. As far as the southern portion of the dryline, right now models are conflicted about developing nothing at all, or 1-2 big supercells. We could also have a few supercells form out of the earlier convection on the southern end. This would be ahead of the dryline and have a very good chance of becoming right-turn supercells with potential impact into C OK before nightfall. After dark, there will likely be a line of storms trying to backbuild from NW/N OK down toward C OK. It is unclear at this time if it will do as such.

I will keep this updated throughout today and get some maps in here once we get some cumulus fields going.

Oops - my bad. Sorry 'bout that :) I should probably learn to read someday.... :)

Your point regarding map boundaries is very well-taken. The whole map issue could stir up a totally separate discussion about whether difference between a 30% risk and a 15% risk really changes how anyone could or should respond to a severe weather forecast.....

Yeah, especially when your east of the bullseye. The stronger longer lived right turners can find themselves east of the higher risk area and they still take awhile to spend down even after moving out of the most favorable conditions.

This is the 4th High Risk issuance of 2017. And the first that isn't in the southeastern US since 2014. (2017's 4 High Risks are the only 4 High Risks since 2014)

This is also the first High Risk in the initial Day 1 forecast since Nov 2013. In other words, all the Highs since then have been Day 1 upgrades at the end of the overnight shift or during the subsequent day shift.

For the Plains this is the first tornado-driven High (i.e., instead of a wind-driven High) since the Woodward OK tornado day (14 Apr 2012).

Your point regarding map boundaries is very well-taken. The whole map issue could stir up a totally separate discussion about whether difference between a 30% risk and a 15% risk really changes how anyone could or should respond to a severe weather forecast.....

More to the point, the true probability of any of the severe hazards exists on a continuous scale. It's not truly a stair-step of (for tor) 2-5-10-15-30-45-60, but it's drawn that way for technical reasons. So the closer you are to the 15% line, the closer the real forecast probability is to 15%. Just outside that line, it doesn't immediately drop to 10%, but instead drops gradually as you move orthogonally away from the line.

The local nws office has now included all of the metro in the moderate risk. This probably means they are more confident the southern storms will actually form.

Official day 2 products only come out twice per day and that's by design because they don't want people to overly focus on details a day before.

It also takes people, time, and effort to issue a Convective Outlook. Given the available resources, five Day 1 outlooks and two Day 2 outlooks are appropriate, in my view.

13854

^^^ Click for hi-res image

Can I get a ELI5 for right-turn storms?

Can I get a ELI5 for right-turn storms?

In general, springtime thunderstorms tend to move from the southwest to the northeast. Rotating supercell thunderstorms sometimes make a "right turn", where they began moving in a more easterly direction; often, when this happens, it signals intense rotation and a strong tornado. The storm on May 20th, 2013 that produced the Moore tornado did exactly that.

That's my understanding from a non-meteorology background; someone like Anonymous could likely explain better than I could, however!

In general, springtime thunderstorms tend to move from the southwest to the northeast. Rotating supercell thunderstorms sometimes make a "right turn", where they began moving in a more easterly direction; often, when this happens, it signals intense rotation and a strong tornado. The storm on May 20th, 2013 that produced the Moore tornado did exactly that.

That's my understanding from a non-meteorology background; someone like Anonymous could likely explain better than I could, however!

The 5/31/13 storm that produced the El Reno tornado did that also. That was one part of why Mike Morgan's "drive south" was so irresponsible because people were driving right into the path of the storm since it didn't take the usual southwest/northeast path.

Supercells are powerful counter-clockwise spinning storms. This spin can be strong enough to possess ability to alter entire boundaries. The same spin often [if strong enough] can make the storm want to collapse/close onto/into itself (think of it as a big ocean wave beginning to 'break'). This will allow the storm to basically move more easterly from its original north/northeasterly desire. What we often see, is a supercell that is varying between northeast movement and east movements. This is a type of "jogging" pattern by the storm. And each time it moves east, is a good indicator of stronger and more intense rotation. Often times meteorologists and chasers talk about storms "ramping up" - this is the ELI5 of rotation appearing to increase, thus an east (or right) move is likely occurring or about to occur.