So starts the April 2017 weather discussion thread.

http://climate.cod.edu/data/satellite/1km/Oklahoma/current/Oklahoma.rad.gif

Tomorrow's Severe Weather Outlook

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk_1730.gif?1491105691689

If you happened to have recently tried to use wunderground's network of streaming NOAA weather stations to hear the Oklahoma City station, then you know it's down. Wunderground has permanently discontinued it. However, in response, a voluntarily created network of streaming NOAA weather stations has arisen. The Oklahoma City NOAA station, along with two other Oklahoma stations can be heard on it - Bartlesville and Stillwater. Hopefully, the network can handle increased load when severe weather demands it. The list of stations currently available to be heard from all over the county can be accessed here: http://noaaweatherradio.org
http://stillwaterweather.com/images/noaa-radio.gif

If you happened to have recently tried to use wunderground's network of streaming NOAA weather stations to hear the Oklahoma City station, then you know it's down. Wunderground has permanently discontinued it. However, in response, a voluntarily created network of streaming NOAA weather stations has arisen. The Oklahoma City NOAA station, along with two other Oklahoma stations can be heard on it - Bartlesville and Stillwater. Hopefully, the network can handle increased load when severe weather demands it. The list of stations currently available to be heard from all over the county can be accessed here: http://noaaweatherradio.org
http://stillwaterweather.com/images/noaa-radio.gif

Any word on why they discontinued it? Lack of use? Expense? Didn't wunderground get bought up by one of the big media grunts recently?

EDIT Just went to the wundergound page where they announced this and their "reason" was just corporate doublespeak. Sounds like a *lot* of the nice things wunderground did are quietly getting shuttered. Shame. Once again, the weather consumer is the loser.

Any word on why they discontinued it? Lack of use? Expense? Didn't wunderground get bought up by one of the big media grunts recently?

Wunderground is part of The Weather Company, which is part of IBM. It's been at least a couple of years since they were purchased by Weather Company, but not sure exactly how long.

Wunderground is part of The Weather Company, which is part of IBM. It's been at least a couple of years since they were purchased by Weather Company, but not sure exactly how long.

Wunderground was bought by The Weather Channel in 2012. IBM bought what amounts to all the "mobile web" assets of TWC in 2015. Wunderground is also discontinuing severe weather SMS alerts and their aviation forecasts. That tells this naive soul that either they're trying to force that audience to a different target that monetizes better, or that target *doesn't* monetize well and are leaving it to local broadcasters (like our local stations) or local weather forecast offices - or perhaps that mobile "audience" is already changing and isn't reacting to things like push notices, etc as was expected. Who knows.

I also recall that Accuweather was, ultimately (and, I guess 'allegedly') behind a congressional lobbying push to essentially shutter NOAA (perhaps not completely but practically) and (conveniently) let Accuweather just sell that kind of met service to whomever wanted it.

Anyway, sorry for a bit of the thread derail :) : ) Here's to a quiet April in Oklahoma.

I also recall that Accuweather was, ultimately (and, I guess 'allegedly') behind a congressional lobbying push to essentially shutter NOAA (perhaps not completely but practically) and (conveniently) let Accuweather just sell that kind of met service to whomever wanted it.

Anyway, sorry for a bit of the thread derail :) : ) Here's to a quiet April in Oklahoma.

Whoa. Tell me more - I'm very curious.

Looks like severe weather may be on the uptick for tomorrow things are a changing.....

Very compact system coming across the state tomorrow. Some remnant cells coming out of the TX PH tonight, will slowly die as they head east into OK - may reach NC OK, possibly some early morning OKC rain if they hold together.

Then tomorrow is the weird forecast of instability either being there or not when the low travels directly across I-40 and then up I-44. This will allow for some weird dynamics along and just north of the center of the low. So anywhere from WC to C and N OK will have to keep an eye out. And of course all of eastern OK will be in play for late afternoon severe weather, likely a line of storms. Will update in the morning of course.

Short range models showing development this evening basically right over C OK and pushing to the north and east. Severe potential will likely be with any tail-end cells that fly northeast with the spin of the low. Meanwhile, these storms will later mature and become more numerous as the system pushes east - which will place NE OK in an elevated threat area.

The OKC play is very hit-or-miss. Best shot is northern sides of the metro. It will really matter how far NW the warmer, unstable air makes it across OKC.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2017040412/hrrr_ref_frzn_scus_10.png

Whoa. Tell me more - I'm very curious.

I wish I could remember more of the details, but IIRC there was some legislation going around a while back that basically advocated privatizing several agencies, but NOAA was the real target. Somewhere along the way, Accuweather (or whomever owned it then?) was supposedly identified as a big supporter of the bill. I realize that's pretty vague, but that's what I remember. Heck, our old friend Venture (who really started all this severe weather watching here at OKCTalk several years ago) may have discussed it some. If I can find more info, I'll start a separate thread so we don't clutter this one up :)

We now return you to your regularly scheduled April weather thread :)

SVR Watch issued.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0121_radar.gif

230 PM CDT Tue Apr 4 2017

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Northwest Arkansas
Southeast Kansas
Southwest Missouri
Central and Northeast Oklahoma

* Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 230 PM until
900 PM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3
inches in diameter possible
Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
A tornado or two possible

SUMMARY...Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected to develop
over central Oklahoma by 4pm. This activity will spread/develop
northeast into portions of southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri
and northwest Arkansas. Large hail and damaging winds are the
primary threats, though a tornado or two could be noted with the
strongest activity near the I-44 corridor.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60
statute miles north and south of a line from 5 miles southwest of
Oklahoma City OK to 15 miles east of Monett MO. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0428.gif

Storms exploding right now. Notable storms are west of Kingfisher, directly over eastern OKC, and east of Shawnee.

No streaming radar or information. But the chat is here if anyone wants to follow along while these are near OKC.

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/live-chat/

OKC is likely out of the woods for the big time stuff. The unstable air just never made the push far enough to the west.

NW OKC up towards the Piedmont area may get clipped by the cold-core convection as it tries to build south just west of OKC, but I wouldn't hold my breath.

Meanwhile, if you know someone in Tulsa - tell them to maybe think of leaving work early. Rush hour up there will likely be a nightmare.

Severe thunderstorm watch for OKC canceled. Storms moved by fast. Just .15" here with no hail. Some places did get hail.

Should we see any rain overnight? I put down some fertilizer for the lawn when the clouds were out this afternoon, but we didn't get any rain.

Next chance for Severe Weather comes Late Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening. Should be dry till then.

We will likely see the 3rd SPC High Risk of the year, #2 of the week, on Wednesday.

This year is the first since 2014 for the High Risk category to return. If you recall, the 5-count category risk system began in fall of 2014, so it is (conceivably) more difficult to reach High Risks.

We will likely see the 3rd SPC High Risk of the year, #2 of the week, on Wednesday.

This year is the first since 2014 for the High Risk category to return. If you recall, the 5-count category risk system began in fall of 2014, so it is (conceivably) more difficult to reach High Risks.

Sorry to be dense, Anon, but do you mean Wednesday (4/5) with a possible upgrade of the current MDT region in the SE US to HIGH in the SE US, or do you mean here in OK NEXT Wed (4/12)? I kept going back and forth on what you meant but finally decided to ask :) :)

I've not been a fan of the new five-category system ever since it was released, as I think the terms delineating the various risk levels are improperly chosen...

Sorry to be dense, Anon, but do you mean Wednesday (4/5) with a possible upgrade of the current MDT region in the SE US to HIGH in the SE US, or do you mean here in OK NEXT Wed (4/12)? I kept going back and forth on what you meant but finally decided to ask :) :)
I had the same question, but didn't bother to ask.


I've not been a fan of the new five-category system ever since it was released, as I think the terms delineating the various risk levels are improperly chosen...
Agree 100% ... I don't think it's intuitive to the average layman.

Oh sorry. No you wouldn't ever catch me predicting a risk that is 8 days away!

I am speaking of the eastern parts of the country. Specifically out near central and eastern Tennessee/Kentucky. I am expecting an upgrade in risk - but it appears they may leave the large blanketed Moderate due to questionable instability with on going convection.

Oh sorry. No you wouldn't ever catch me predicting a risk that is 8 days away!

I didn't think so, but I could never quite convince myself either way :) :)


I am speaking of the eastern parts of the country. Specifically out near central and eastern Tennessee/Kentucky. I am expecting an upgrade in risk - but it appears they may leave the large blanketed Moderate due to questionable instability with on going convection.

Yeah I was reading the SPC outlook for that area and that's really a potential boiling pot for today.

I had the same question, but didn't bother to ask.


Agree 100% ... I don't think it's intuitive to the average layman.

I have sent an email to the SPC explaining to them why I think their terminology scale is fundamentally flawed - a "slight" risk is higher than a "marginal" risk, and a "moderate" risk is higher than an "enhanced" risk - that's just wholly counterintuitive. For as long as I can remember, "slight" has been used to characterize a minimalist probability of rain, and the word "moderate" on its face implies mitigation. I think they need to either reorganize that list of words or go to an exclusively percentage-based scale.

They may have had valid reasons within the meteorological community to have developed that word scale as they did, but in my opinion they left out a key ingredient - remember your audience. How they intended the words to be used isn't nearly as important as how the reader decides to interpret them.

Yeah, the slight/enhanced/moderate/high wording is confusing if you don't know what each risk level means.

People tend to not take slight risks seriously while they tend to lose their minds over anything moderate and above. I think the best way to do risk categories, if it was possible, would based off how high-end it could possibly get. For instance, if the ingredients are in place for violent EF4+ tornadoes and/or baseball or larger hail, that should be a high risk. If it's more of a wind and small hail threat with the possibility of an isolated weak tornado, that would be a slight risk.

RE: wording/ordering on the Convective Outlook product suite...

This tweet and related thread should be of interest:

https://twitter.com/StuOstro/status/849321537958227969

RE: wording/ordering on the Convective Outlook product suite...

This tweet and related thread should be of interest:

https://twitter.com/StuOstro/status/849321537958227969
There's some good (and funny) comments there.

I've wondered if NWS ever does a focus group of laypeople rather than just asking mets.

It's official. Third High Risk of 2017 is posted. Covers large area from GA to SC.

There's some good (and funny) comments there.

I've wondered if NWS ever does a focus group of laypeople rather than just asking mets.

I'm glad to know there are so many others who concur that the current wording system is just goofy, and I understand that it takes time for a bureaucracy to make changes. Maybe by this time next year they'll invent some new words like "Enharginal", "Slanced" , and "Moderigh" to clear things up :) :)

Wondering when our high end severe storm season is going to kick in here in Oklahoma? Seems like April is off to a slow start. When is the deep moisture and instability going to start building in here for us?

Wondering when our high end severe storm season is going to kick in here in Oklahoma? Seems like April is off to a slow start. When is the deep moisture and instability going to start building in here for us?
I'm hoping it never kicks in. I'm quite happy with the slow start. Some of us prefer safe and sound over destructive "excitement."

Wondering when our high end severe storm season is going to kick in here in Oklahoma? Seems like April is off to a slow start. When is the deep moisture and instability going to start building in here for us?

Hopefully never. I don't know about you, but I'm tired of replacing roofs and siding every other year. I never had this problem even living outside of Tulsa. It seems like this is the lion's den for storms, but I'm perfectly happy with no high-end.

There's some good (and funny) comments there.

I've wondered if NWS ever does a focus group of laypeople rather than just asking mets.

Yes, and efforts in that area are growing. On a related note, when any official product changes are proposed (whether at the local office level, national centers like SPC, etc..), there is always a public comment period before the changes go "live".

Yes, and efforts in that area are growing. On a related note, when any official product changes are proposed (whether at the local office level, national centers like SPC, etc..), there is always a public comment period before the changes go "live".
When it's about messaging or how to reach the average person in actionable language, "public comment" periods aren't going to achieve the same results in fine-tuning messaging for maximum effectiveness. Sure it's a government procedure/tool, but there's a reason successful retail companies don't develop their messaging strategies that way. Policy wonks pay attention to "public comment" periods... the average citizen does not and that is why the messaging doesn't seem to have the desired or intended impact.

Wondering when our high end severe storm season is going to kick in here in Oklahoma? Seems like April is off to a slow start. When is the deep moisture and instability going to start building in here for us?

For all severe convective hazards, the climo probs over central OK for the 1st week of April are roughly similar to those for early/mid July (surprisingly). The peak is about May 15-June 10.

For tornadoes, those in 1st week of April are about the same as the middle of June, with a peak in the last half of May.

For significant tornadoes (>= EF-2), the peak for central OK is the second half of April through most of May (but these are much rarer and so you should be more cautious about interpreting the corresponding climatology).

See more from the Storm Prediction Center's severe climatology page here:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/new/SVRclimo/climo.php?parm=anySvr

When it's about messaging or how to reach the average person in actionable language, "public comment" periods aren't going to achieve the same results in fine-tuning messaging for maximum effectiveness. Sure it's a government procedure/tool, but there's a reason successful retail companies don't develop their messaging strategies that way. Policy wonks pay attention to "public comment" periods... the average citizen does not and that is why the messaging doesn't seem to have the desired or intended impact.


Sure, and I didn't mean to say that a public comment period obviates the need for focus groups and other types of research. Just saying that there is an opportunity for anyone to be involved in the process, even if you aren't participating in a focus group, survey, or other part of a messaging/communication study.

For all severe convective hazards, the climo probs over central OK for the 1st week of April are roughly similar to those for early/mid July (surprisingly). The peak is about May 15-June 10.

For tornadoes, those in 1st week of April are about the same as the middle of June, with a peak in the last half of May.

For significant tornadoes (>= EF-2), the peak for central OK is the second half of April through most of May (but these are much rarer and so you should be more cautious about interpreting the corresponding climatology).

See more from the Storm Prediction Center's severe climatology page here:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/new/SVRclimo/climo.php?parm=anySvr

Yeah, I would say the season is still about average. The climo probs start increasing out in the east and moves further west as the season progresses. From now until late May, the climatology probabilities go up every week. Again, this is all relative as people only pay attention when a tornado hits a populated area.

I'm hoping it never kicks in. I'm quite happy with the slow start. Some of us prefer safe and sound over destructive "excitement."

I agree. It's quite disturbing that he goes on and on every year wishing for violent tornadoes and hail storms.

I agree. It's quite disturbing that he goes on and on every year wishing for violent tornadoes and hail storms.

He does the same in the winter months as well.

He does the same in the winter months as well.

I know. He really likes it whenever destructive ice storms are in the forecast.

I agree. It's quite disturbing that he goes on and on every year wishing for violent tornadoes and hail storms.

Ahhhh....the Ignore Button is a beautiful thing.

Kind of off subject but somewhat weather related. I was in Tulsa doing set up for their Auto Show tuesday and radar/forecasters were showing hail heading our way. The promoter had us all pull our personal cars into the Expo Center for protection. It really interfered with the set up and was a great thing for the promoter to do.

At least from a cursory glance, Sunday looks to stand a decent chance of strong/severe storms in central Oklahoma off the dryline to our west.

At least from a cursory glance, Sunday looks to stand a decent chance of strong/severe storms in central Oklahoma off the dryline to our west.
SPC and NWS Norman seem to really be downplaying Sundays event as of now we are only in a Marginal risk for Sunday. Maybe they are waiting on more data to come in to up us to slight or higher. Ideas?

Sunday is going to be one of those "if something develops, it will be severe" type of days. But the chances of that development are low.

We may not know until that afternoon. The data is too unreliable at this time.

Same as above holds for today. Doubtful of any development, but if something does - it will have a great shot at dropping large hail and heavy rainfall. Outside tornado threat exists, but minimal.

HRRR going back and forth on development of a cell or two.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2017040915/hrrr_ref_frzn_scus_9.png

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0467.gif

Mesoscale Discussion 0467
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0348 PM CDT Sun Apr 09 2017

Areas affected...Portions of central/southern/eastern
KS...central/western OK...western North TX

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 092048Z - 092315Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...The area is being monitored for the possibility of
sporadic thunderstorm development this afternoon, with conditional
severe hail/wind potential spreading east-northeastward into the
evening. Watch issuance could be needed across portions of the
region, if sustained storm development were to become increasingly
possible.

DISCUSSION...Surface observations at 20Z indicate a dryline
extending from central KS near Salina, to northwest OK near Alva,
and then extending farther south into western North TX east of
Childress. East of the dryline, a steady influx of partially
modified Gulf moisture continues to extend northward, with surface
dewpoints around 60-63F. Breaks in mid/high-level cloud canopies,
attendant to a zone of DCVA preceding a midlevel shortwave trough,
are permitting diabatic surface-layer heating near and east of the
primary dryline circulation. The 18Z Lamont sounding reveals
substantial capping at the base of a prominent EML, though very
steep midlevel lapse rates (around 9.5 C/km in the 700-500-mb layer)
accompany this EML supporting 2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE.

There is considerable uncertainty regarding the exact details of
convective development -- if any -- along the dryline this
afternoon, as reflected by a wide variety of recent solutions from
convection-allowing models. Ultimately, the aforementioned capping
should greatly minimize convective coverage. However, modest ascent
preceding the aforementioned wave, coupled with diurnally steepened
low-level lapse rates, may adequately erode capping in proximity to
the dryline circulation for very isolated storm development --
perhaps in the 2130-2300Z time frame.

Observational data indicate a few potentially favored mesoscale
regimes for storm development:
(1) Western North Texas at the leading edge of a field of high-based
cumulus clouds intersecting a segment of the dryline that has been
locally sharpening and protruding eastward,
(2) Northwest OK into south-central KS near another dryline
protrusion/possible wave, and
(3) West-central OK where temperatures nearing 90F near/west of the
dryline are supporting deep dryline circulations along the southern
periphery of more substantial midlevel height falls.

If sustained deep convection were to evolve along the dryline,
supercell structures could ensue given 40-50 kt of effective shear
with a component orthogonal to the dryline. The aforementioned steep
midlevel lapse rates will be conditionally favorable for large hail
development -- perhaps significantly severe. Locally damaging wind
gusts may also conditionally occur. This activity would spread
east-northeastward into the evening hours, before somewhat greater
convective coverage potentially evolves across the lower Missouri
Valley vicinity this evening along a consolidating cold front.

..Cohen/Grams.. 04/09/2017

Dryline trying its hardest to fire down in SW OK.

There is probably too much warm air aloft.

What kind of rainfall totals can the metro look forward to in the next week or so?

Waiting for 18Z to load for latest models. But looks like the trend is going up some for C OK.

It will be close, but trend is to push the heaviest rain further east. Localized flooding threat over areas where storms develop and kinda pop up over the same areas over and over.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017041118/gfs_apcpn_scus_12.png

Rain will continue to increase in SW OK and eventually spread eastward into C and N OK as we head into the afternoon and evening. Enjoy the nice rain!


Short range model rainfall predictions.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2017041313/hrrr_apcpn_scus_13.png

There could be more elevated severe by the end of next week. Still far away though.

There could be more elevated severe by the end of next week. Still far away though.

I am a firm believer in the 72-hour window after some of the events that have been hyped over the past few years. Things can look pretty ominous this far out but once you get closer, the ingredients aren't there or the placement of it keeps OKC out of the danger zone.

I am a firm believer in the 72-hour window after some of the events that have been hyped over the past few years. Things can look pretty ominous this far out but once you get closer, the ingredients aren't there or the placement of it keeps OKC out of the danger zone.

True, just pointing out that it is a a time frame to watch and we are approaching the peak of the season.

This rain is amazing right now. Models putting heaviest from SC to C OK as we head into the evening.

The week ahead looks very active in terms of rain/thunderstorms. Great news for the re-appearing drought.

Some decent rain chances almost daily for this coming week. Potential severe threat around Friday.

http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/realtime/rainrfc.48hr.png

Mike Morgan getting they hype train rolling for next Friday.

https://twitter.com/MikeMorganKFOR/status/853395920876163075

Curious as to where the weather people have gone. This was my go to as far as weather discussion, but lately (no disrespect to anyone) there has been little discussion. Anyone know of other weather forums? Thanks.

Weekends are usually pretty bad for me for updates. But if it is something significant, I will get on here.

As for this week. We are looking at upper 70s and low 80s with solid rain chances returning Thursday. At this time it appears that Thursday/Friday could be a washout with a powerful storm system. This will also rush in colder air behind it for the weekend, leaving behind potentially just 50s for highs and lows in the 40s.

Severe potential for Friday is questionable at this time.