Thursday and Friday are looking pretty ominous. There is still a lot of variables in play, but it very well could end up being a classic high-end central Oklahoma severe setup (think 5/31/13). We will need to wait a few more days though to get a better idea of how things will set up.

Just like this past Friday? They hyped it so much, I know people who stayed home from work. Let's wait til a little closer before crying wolf (at least the weathermen should).

Thursday and Friday are looking pretty ominous. There is still a lot of variables in play, but it very well could end up being a classic high-end central Oklahoma severe setup (think 5/31/13). We will need to wait a few more days though to get a better idea of how things will set up.

bchris, calm down. Just today the models had this thing pushed further into eastern/South eastern Oklahoma. One of them as shifted back and the other is still a bit iffy for Friday. We're still so far out that each run will probably be a bit different. I know this stuff scares you, lots of people have a fear of it, especially after 2013. Naming dates only serves to enhance that fear, every event is different. Take one day at a time, and we'll start to know more in a few days.

Just like this past Friday? They hyped it so much, I know people who stayed home from work. Let's wait til a little closer before crying wolf (at least the weathermen should).

That's just absurd. By 1-2 days before the last event the threat had clearly shifted a bit further south and east putting the metro out of the main threat. I didn't catch the latest updates from the TV media, but if they based that on the NWS forecast I'm not sure what else there is to say.

Just like this past Friday? They hyped it so much, I know people who stayed home from work. Let's wait til a little closer before crying wolf (at least the weathermen should).

The only one who really hyped it up is Morgan and even he back off the day before.

The NWS feels confident enough to give a 30 percent probability for Friday which is pretty impressive for 6 days out. That usually means we will have something in the central plains.

Thursday and Friday are looking pretty ominous. There is still a lot of variables in play, but it very well could end up being a classic high-end central Oklahoma severe setup (think 5/31/13). We will need to wait a few more days though to get a better idea of how things will set up.

Are you a weatherman?

Are you a weatherman?

To be fair, I personally find many amateur meterologists and general weather enthusiasts to be more grounded than many weathermen. Not all, but many.

Also, most local channels buy their information from the NWS and then re-package it to make themselves seem more important than perhaps they truly are. Not meaning to undermine meterologists or anything, but being in OK my whole life, I've always had an affinity for weather and even took a couple classes as electives in college (no, I'm not an expert) and learned a couple things along the way.

But yea, people need to go ahead and calm down until at least mid-week.

Thursday and Friday are looking pretty ominous. There is still a lot of variables in play, but it very well could end up being a classic high-end central Oklahoma severe setup (think 5/31/13). We will need to wait a few more days though to get a better idea of how things will set up.

I know this will fall on deaf ears, as it does every year, but please stop it. Just stop it. Stop trying to beckon the gruesome and the ominous out of your own fears. We're four days away from Friday. Four days.

I know this will fall on deaf ears, as it does every year, but please stop it. Just stop it. Stop trying to beckon the gruesome and the ominous out of your own fears. We're four days away from Friday. Four days.

bchris02 is correct about possible significant severe weather Friday and people should remain alert. Yes, things obviously can change but current runs do look fairly impressive concerning Friday-Saturday. The ECMWF and GFS have been somewhat close and consistent and anytime the SPC has a 30% outlook 5 days out should definitely get peoples attention. Based on my knowledge I definitely plan on spotting at some point one of those days. Again, a lot will change and this is Oklahoma in the spring. Please keep an eye out on the latest forecast. -Taylor

I know this will fall on deaf ears, as it does every year, but please stop it. Just stop it. Stop trying to beckon the gruesome and the ominous out of your own fears. We're four days away from Friday. Four days.

Thank you. Yes, please, bchris, deal with your fears privately. Again, I said this last week, and several others have in the last day or two, your doom and gloom comments do absolutely no good here or anywhere. We all want to come here for clear, calm, rational weather analysis. Period. And that's what we get for the most part. Please take your negative thinking somewhere else. Might have to invoke the block feature yet again on this thread.

Speaking of four days out, the models have once again began to migrate the threat and push it South across the red river and Texas per last night's models. I didn't get a chance to look at this morning's ones so it could all be different again.

For those fretting about the NWS outlook for later this week, NWS-Norman posted this helpful information to their Facebook page today...


How to use severe weather outlooks

US NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OKLAHOMA (https://www.facebook.com/NWSNorman/)·MONDAY, APRIL 24, 2017 (https://www.facebook.com/notes/us-national-weather-service-norman-oklahoma/how-to-use-severe-weather-outlooks/1435372883150301/)

The National Weather Service issues severe weather outlooks to help you be prepared for severe weather that could occur hours or days into the future. Now that these outlooks are widely available online, it’s important that you understand what the outlooks are for and how you can use them to help you be ready.

Here are some important things to know about NWS severe weather outlooks:


[*=left]An outlook is not a forecast. It’s much less specific and more uncertain. We’re sometimes able to identify the general conditions that might cause severe thunderstorms and tornadoes a few days in advance. But we can’t tell you exactly what is going to happen, precisely what time of day the storms will happen, the exact areas that will be affected, or whether there will be tornadoes or not. In fact, most of the time we can’t tell you for sure that there will be severe storms at all. Think of it like a jigsaw puzzle: we see the corner and edge pieces of the puzzle that frame what might happen. That’s the outlook. We won’t know what the full picture looks like until the small pieces of the puzzle fall into place, and that’s usually not until we get much closer to the event.

[*=left]An outlook covering your area does NOT mean thatsevere weather is definitely going to happen to you. Outlooks usually cover large areas, often parts of several states. Not everyone in that outlook area is going to see severe weather. Even if the outlook nails the area that’s impacted, the severe weather still may not happen in your county. Even if it does, it might not happen in your town, and there’s an even smaller chance it will happen to your neighborhood or street. And the chances it will actually happen at your home are very very small. It’s quite likely that you will be an several outlooks this spring, and for many of them you may not even see a drop of rain or a storm anywhere near you. That doesn’t mean the outlook was bad.

[*=left]BUT, the outlook means it COULD happen, and that’s what an outlook is all about. It’s to give you a heads-up that severe weather is possible so you can be sure you’re ready just in case it actually happens. That’s all. It’s not designed to scare you. Or to freak you out. Or to cause you to do a lot of special or different things. It’s just a tap on the shoulder to say keep an eye on the weather.


So what SHOULD you do if you’re in an outlook area?


[*=left]Think about where you will be and what you’ll be doing on the day(s) when severe weather is possible. Do you have a plan to protect yourself and your family IF it actually happened? Are there things you need to get done before the possible storm day to help you be more prepared?

[*=left]Expect the outlook to change. The outlook area will move, the risk levels may change, and the days when severe weather is expected may even change. This is normal and common. Check for new information at least once a day leading up to the possible severe weather day.

No need to panic six, seven, or eight days out. Have a plan and start thinking about where you'll be during potential weather a day or two before it happens. Then be ready to execute your plan if it becomes necessary. Avail yourself of 3 or so different sources of warning and weather information. No two weather days are identical to one another, so I would also try to avoid comparisons to the past - you'll just scare yourself and others. But that doesn't mean you can't learn lessons from the past and incorporate those lessons into your weather safety plan!

Yes, the weather can be scary, but we're blessed to live in a world where we understand more about the atmosphere and its impacts than at any other time in human history.

Mike Morgan has Friday pushed farther to the south. Aaron Tuttle thinks that tomorrow may pack more of a punch than previously expected and is having a livestream at 9PM about it. With the dryline expected to be near I-35 I doubt the metro will be under the gun but it could be a show for eastern Oklahoma/Tulsa depending on how things set up.

The big story is the next couple of cold fronts look to pack much more of a punch than previously expected, with highs only in the upper 40s on Wednesday and again this weekend. Snow is possible in the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles.

Question for Anon or anybody else that can answer..from what I always remembered, the warm front tends to be in Nebraska and Kansas. It seems like it's having trouble moving north this year. I can't ever really remember having the warm front in play very much. Is it just me or is it a bit abnormal?

Question for Anon or anybody else that can answer..from what I always remembered, the warm front tends to be in Nebraska and Kansas. It seems like it's having trouble moving north this year. I can't ever really remember having the warm front in play very much. Is it just me or is it a bit abnormal?

I'm not 100% on what you are asking. But a large nationwide "warm front" isn't really a thing, if that is what you mean. Warm fronts are simply boundary of the warm and wet side of storm. All any storm system is - is a giant counter-clockwise spinning air pressure. Cold fronts and warm fronts are the exact same thing, but one is moving generally south and the other north. They are simply names for defining a boundary.

The spin of these storms is the exact reason why people in every part of the country have a "we have crazy weather" type of motto. Because these storms come across the entire nation, and for multiple days as a storm is approaching, it is drawing up warm, moist air from the south - this is your warm front. This is why here in OK - we get such strong southerly winds in the springtime. This is literally the storm pulling air from the gulf as it approaches from the west. And as we all know, right after the warm and hot days before a storm, the storms and rain usually come through - and the next day is noticeably much cooler and drier. This is because all of the cold/cooler air on the back side of the storm has been pulled down from the north.

Now onto this week, Tuesday is a tough forecast due to the trajectory of the storm. It will be coming out very tightly spun - so the amount of unraveling the low has as it exits the Rockies will determine where the storm potential is. Right now NE OK is a nice bet, but there is indication of a potential play back toward SW into C OK with the back-side of the low. Again, the instability that builds in the day of, will determine if anything significant will develop. The manner in which the low could come across OK, will be conducive of tornado producing storms.

We can tackle Friday after Tuesday.

EDIT: Kept saying Wednesday when I meant Tuesday.

I'm not 100% on what you are asking. But a large nationwide "warm front" isn't really a thing, if that is what you mean. Warm fronts are simply boundary of the warm and wet side of storm. All any storm system is - is a giant counter-clockwise spinning air pressure. Cold fronts and warm fronts are the exact same thing, but one is moving generally south and the other north. They are simply names for defining a boundary.

The spin of these storms is the exact reason why people in every part of the country have a "we have crazy weather" type of motto. Because these storms come across the entire nation, and for multiple days as a storm is approaching, it is drawing up warm, moist air from the south - this is your warm front. This is why here in OK - we get such strong southerly winds in the springtime. This is literally the storm pulling air from the gulf as it approaches from the west. And as we all know, right after the warm and hot days before a storm, the storms and rain usually come through - and the next day is noticeably much cooler and drier. This is because all of the cold/cooler air on the back side of the storm has been pulled down from the north.

EDIT: Kept saying Wednesday when I meant Tuesday.

Ah, makes sense. Thanks, still a noob at this stuff. haha.

I feel bad I don't ever watch KOCO during severe weather, I think KWTV & KFOR just have better equipment but I loved this Facebook Live Damon Lane did earlier, just very down to earth explaining things in simple language and being very candid and cautious with his thoughts.


https://www.facebook.com/KOCOdamonlane/videos/1711377172496234/

I feel bad I don't ever watch KOCO during severe weather, I think KWTV & KFOR just have better equipment but I loved this Facebook Live Damon Lane did earlier, just very down to earth explaining things in simple language and being very candid and cautious with his thoughts.


https://www.facebook.com/KOCOdamonlane/videos/1711377172496234/

Damon loves to hype, maybe not to the extent that MM does, but I also feel like with KOCO it's about them being third and having to draw in viewers for the station more than anything. Damon and Conder are great guys, really nice. I also like how they're beginning to draw their risk maps to be in line with the SPCs. Great idea and others should generally follow.

Storms will develop tonight. May or may not clip the OKC area. Short range models placing storm development zone basically right over OKC and off to the NE.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2017042512/hrrr_ref_frzn_scus_15.png

This is why I am boycotting the local stations this year unless there is actually something going on. I am sticking to this site and Aaron Tuttle's blog for info on potential severe threats.

You had me until Aaron Tuttle. :)

I followed him for a while. I stayed for the forecasts, but the drama pushed me away.

Per the SPC's most recent discussion, it appears the Friday scenario depends (as it so often does) on cap strength. Not intending to read between the lines, but I think the phrasing implies a stronger cap in roughly the western half of OK, but progressively weakening as you head east, all the way into Arkansas. That probably also explains the eastward expansion of the 30% risk area.

I also think that post from the Norman forecast center on Facebook (posted earlier in the thread) shows that SPC/NWS is starting to realize how their "outlooks" are a bit problematic in the hype/don't hype department. It doesn't sound to me like they ever intended for them to be used in the way other media is using them, although I think their "this is an outlook, not a forecast" is splitting waaay too fine a semantic hair for most people. Yeah, I get what they're saying, but again, to the general public....mixed in with some conspicuous hypery...*sigh*

bchris02 is correct about possible significant severe weather Friday and people should remain alert. Yes, things obviously can change but current runs do look fairly impressive concerning Friday-Saturday. The ECMWF and GFS have been somewhat close and consistent and anytime the SPC has a 30% outlook 5 days out should definitely get peoples attention. Based on my knowledge I definitely plan on spotting at some point one of those days. Again, a lot will change and this is Oklahoma in the spring. Please keep an eye out on the latest forecast. -Taylor

The issue isn't about the prospect of significant weather. It's when the communication of that potential gets tied into ominous references to prior, conspicuous bad weather events that adds nothing to the information. I think everyone in Oklahoma for any length of time knows that, this time of year, when storms roll around, they can get intense, and yes, if SPC is issuing an outlook such as they have, we should pay proper attention. But beating the drums and saying "this is ominous...it's like May 2013" (or words to that effect) is just incendiary and not informative. It goes against the grain of what this thread is intended to do - provide sound information.

Be safe spotting!

The issue isn't about the prospect of significant weather. It's when the communication of that potential gets tied into ominous references to prior, conspicuous bad weather events that adds nothing to the information. I think everyone in Oklahoma for any length of time knows that, this time of year, when storms roll around, they can get intense, and yes, if SPC is issuing an outlook such as they have, we should pay proper attention. But beating the drums and saying "this is ominous...it's like May 2013" (or words to that effect) is just incendiary and not informative. It goes against the grain of what this thread is intended to do - provide sound information.
BINGO!

The Chicken Little Principle certainly applies in this thread and weather forecasting in general. Overhyping and sensationalizing forecasts makes people desensitized to weather outlooks and forecasts and makes it harder to provide meaningful and legitimate warnings when they are truly warranted.

You had me until Aaron Tuttle. :)

Then who is a good weatherman or woman, like Emily Sutton? Or do they not exist in Oklahoma?

No, I completely agree with you on the fact that he shouldn't use ominous or May 2013. I definitely will be safe, if the models stay consistent I may be in your guys' side of the state instead of my area. I'm with OKARK Skywarn, so i usually stay in eastern ok/ nw Arkansas.

I've been following Tuttle for probably 4-5 months now and have no problems with his forecasting and explanatory methods. I know he was tied up in local drama down there, but that's about all I knew before checking into his site. I have his app now and recommend it for weather enthusiasts.

Definitely a chance of severe weather in the metro (particularly eastern portions) tonight. Sounds like either a Severe Thunderstorm or Tornado Watch coming. Latest mesoscale discussion:

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0553.html

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0553.gif

Valid 252157Z - 260000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage will increase along the front over
the next hour or two with some severe storms likely. Primary severe
threats are very large hail and damaging wind gusts. A tornado or
two is also possible, particularly with any storms near the southern
end of the line around 00Z to 03Z.

DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis placed a low over south-central
IA with a cold front extending southwestward from the low across
eastern KS and north-central OK to another low south of JWG. The
cold front then continues westward from this second low into the TX
panhandle. A dryline also extends from the second low
southward/southwestward into western north Texas. Moisture continues
to advect northward ahead of these boundaries with low 60 dewpoints
now into central OK with mid 50s extending into southeast KS/far
western MO. As the cold front continues southeastward and the subtle
lead shortwave trough progresses into the region (evidenced by
elevated echos/virga currently moving through western OK), forcing
for ascent, both on the meso-alpha and meso-beta scales, will
gradually increase with eventual convective initiation anticipated.
This convective initiation appears most likely along the cold front
from near Logan, Payne, and Noble counties in north-central OK
northeastward to around Elk and Wilson counties in southeast KS.
Once more persistent updrafts are established, the strongly sheared
airmass (0-6 km bulk shear in excess of 50 kt) will favor rotating
storms capable of large hail, some potentially greater than 2 inches
in diameter, damaging wind gusts, and potentially a tornado or two.

The relatively higher tornado threat is most likely towards the
southwestern end of any line of convection that develops where the
better moisture and instability exist. Additionally, the most likely
time frame for any tornadoes would be around 00Z to 03Z as the
low-level jet increases and the boundary layer is not overly hostile
to surface-based convection.


Latest HRRR for 7-10PM:

http://maps2.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/hrrr/2017042521/003/refcmp.us_state_ok.png

http://maps2.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/hrrr/2017042521/004/refcmp.us_state_ok.png

http://maps2.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/hrrr/2017042521/005/refcmp.us_state_ok.png

http://maps2.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/hrrr/2017042521/006/refcmp.us_state_ok.png

I stick with the KOCO5 crew...they are my favs!

Storms are firing on the boundary now. Most of OKC will miss out, save for extreme south and east portions to get possible development directly overhead. Wrap around comes through tomorrow afternoon.

^^ Edit to last post. There is a couple decent towers trying to go up on the western edge of the metro - if these can actually explode in the next hour, OKC could have a cell or two march right across. Hail and heavy rain main threat.

Moore down in towards Norman, explosive development. Strong winds and heavy rain, maybe some small hail. Rest of OKC should be in the clear.

That storm east of Marlow off on it's own looks like it got serious in a hurry.

Storms erupting west of OKC. These will bring flash flooding into the metro.

Storm quickly going severe near Moore.

Spoke too soon! It just really wanted to be a strong storm for a few minutes!

Friday is looking less doomsday for most of C OK. in fact, it may be turning into a E/SE OK flooding event after an early tornado threat. Will keep watching, but the storm is very powerful.

From what I am seeing, the OKC metro is in the clear for Friday during the day. There will be a risk overnight Friday into Saturday but it will primarily be concentrated in southern/southeastern Oklahoma. The OKC metro is at the northern fringe of the risk zone so it will still be good to be weather aware overnight that night, but this looks like it will primarily be a southeastern Oklahoma show.

Does the metro look to be getting nice rainfall this weekend?

The key to Friday evening/night is just how far the occluded frontal boundary in southern Oklahoma migrates farther north. That represents the northern boundary of the richest moisture and, thus, the boundary of highest probability for severe weather. The current models seem to keep that northern progression south of I-40. SPC also talks about a strong cap during the day in the same area, and that always helps keep the worst of the storms at bay.

SPC discusses strong vertical shear which I think focuses attention on the chances for large hail as storms can keep spinning up hailstones into the colder air of the broader storm complexes that do develop, particularly overnight.

Looks like the OK Memorial is going to be a cold, soggy one. Ugh.

Any new info on Friday?

Maybe a light shower by morning in C OK tomorrow.

Then tomorrow night, numerous showers and thunderstorms develop along the boundaries that will be draped either very near C OK and along I-35/I-40... Or just to the south east of it. Everything east of I-35 has a good shot at heavy rainfall and flooding. Severe threat will be primarily with initial storms and be strong winds and small hail, outside shot at tornado for any isolated development early on, but very rare.

We should have a good idea with short-range models tomorrow.

Here is what Jonathan Conder is thinking on Friday.

https://www.facebook.com/MeteorologistJonathanConder/

Models trends seem to bring the low out a little further north and west than initially anticipated. This will slide hail and flash flooding chances back NW with it.

I think flashflooding will be the main threat after an early hail threat. Per usual any storms staying isolated will have a greater hail size probability.

HRRR right after nightfall.
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2017042812/hrrr_ref_frzn_scus_18.png

What does the tornado threat look like? Tuttle is predicting a greater tornado threat than originally expected and it includes the OKC metro. Regardless of how he may have been in the past, Aaron Tuttle today doesn't usually hype tornadoes unless there is a real threat.

Classic spring low pressure set up. Severe weather on southern Plains and a snow storm along the Front Range in Colorado. Denver is supposed to pick up 4-6 inches by Saturday night.

Some of the latest HRRR runs have some extreme precipitation totals overnight. I wouldn't take the placement of these maxima too literally yet, but it shows 4-6" of rain by 3AM in the NW part of the metro, with more on the way. Big storms too, with a big hail threat.

http://maps2.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/hrrr/2017042814/018/qpf_acc.us_state_ok.png

Looks like threat for tornadoes is still low. I don't much like being hailed on. Hope it holds off for Norman Music Festival.

https://twitter.com/NWSNorman/status/858009149812219904

LOL, hype at MAX. Tulsa could get up to 5.6" of rain. Never mind the 10" of snow in the western panhandle: 10 Inches Of Snow, Hail, Flooding Rain, Tornado Threat For Oklahoma This Weekend

What does the tornado threat look like? Tuttle is predicting a greater tornado threat than originally expected and it includes the OKC metro. Regardless of how he may have been in the past, Aaron Tuttle today doesn't usually hype tornadoes unless there is a real threat.
I try not to worry much about such pressing matters, until an actual tornado watch comes out. Then if things step up to a tornado warning, I go into prayer mode.

No question that the language from the SPC, at least in my amateur way of reading their forecasts, is tilting the focus toward hail and heavy rain. They're certainly not eliminating the tornado possibility, but that's not the predominant focus. As always, just have to keep an eye out for what's going on, be sensible about things.

No question that the language from the SPC, at least in my amateur way of reading their forecasts, is tilting the focus toward hail and heavy rain. They're certainly not eliminating the tornado possibility, but that's not the predominant focus. As always, just have to keep an eye out for what's going on, be sensible about things.

The NWS Norman Youtube briefing at noon had similar language, very much more concerned for the hail risk but didn't rule out an isolated tornado or two making an appearance.

Also that was a weird briefing video, it was Jon and Bruce in a back and forth Q&A format that was neat but a bit awkward.

Latest Hi Res models are developing rain later into the night and further west. So impacts in C OK may not be until into the very early morning hours of Saturday.

Latest Hi Res models are developing rain later into the night and further west. So impacts in C OK may not be until into the very early morning hours of Saturday.

Any updates tonight or should we all sleep in peace?

Any updates tonight or should we all sleep in peace?

Sleep in peace. The weather looks nothing like the doom & gloom so far forecasted.

LOL, hype at MAX. Tulsa could get up to 5.6" of rain. Never mind the 10" of snow in the western panhandle: 10 Inches Of Snow, Hail, Flooding Rain, Tornado Threat For Oklahoma This Weekend

Mike Morgan doesn't see anywhere near as much rain for Tulsa. He shows the southeast getting the most rain. Total rain for all of April may surpass 7 inches for my location. Much of Oklahoma has been cleared of drought.

http://stillwaterweather.com/photos/rainapril29.jpg

Photo shown taking a break between two storms as of 04:20 am, April 28. No severe storm warning had been called on the new approaching storm at that time.
http://stillwaterweather.com/photos/WUNIDS_map.gif

http://www.stillwaterweather.com/wxgraphic.php?type=banner_big (http://www.stillwaterweather.com/)

Kudos to Damon Lane and David Payne for pulling an all-nighter. It's good to see chief meteorologists taking responsibility and informing the public about the nighttime severe storms.

Big tree down in my 'hood (near Penn Square)

http://www.okctalk.com/images/pete/storm042917.jpg

Power out at my house. The arch at the fairgrounds blew down. KOCO is reporting I-40 is shut down east of I-40 to clear power lines.

Sleep in peace. The weather looks nothing like the doom & gloom so far forecasted.

lol. What doom and gloom? The forecast went exactly as planned despite the complex nature of the setup -- and I think the swaths of central OKC without power and with downed wires and trees would disagree with your sarcasm.