Mike Morgan getting they hype train rolling for next Friday.

https://twitter.com/MikeMorganKFOR/status/853395920876163075

This is why I am boycotting the local stations this year unless there is actually something going on. I am sticking to this site and Aaron Tuttle's blog for info on potential severe threats.

Curious as to where the weather people have gone. This was my go to as far as weather discussion, but lately (no disrespect to anyone) there has been little discussion. Anyone know of other weather forums? Thanks.

Well, there's been little discussion because there's little to talk about. It's been pretty darn quiet so far this year with only a few marginal severe days, and we've all been in the chat for those along with discussion here. Trust me, when things start to get going, it'll pick up here. (:

Aren't we already well into sever weather season?

We had a pretty mild (and dry) spring last year too.

And almost no real winter weather either the last two years.

Well, there's been little discussion because there's little to talk about. It's been pretty darn quiet so far this year with only a few marginal severe days, and we've all been in the chat for those along with discussion here. Trust me, when things start to get going, it'll pick up here. (:

I am glad it's been so quiet this year so far. However, we are only in April and quiet Aprils aren't really that uncommon and can quickly turn into very active, intense Mays. Hopefully that doesn't happen this year but I don't think we can bank on a quiet season unless we get closer to Memorial Day and things are still quiet.

The upside of it being quiet on here when there's nothing to talk about is that I can quickly just look at "latest posts" and if I don't see the weather thread, I know there's nothing about to happen. That's what I did this weekend.

Mike Morgan getting they hype train rolling for next Friday.

https://twitter.com/MikeMorganKFOR/status/853395920876163075
They have to keep Oklahoman's scared ****less, or they become insignificant. And that won't work for the egos these clowns have.

We need to keep an eye on Friday's severe weather. The SPC and NWS has come around to what Mike Morgan was saying about Fridays severe weather outlook for Central and Southern Oklahoma as of this mornings wording and graphics from them.

We need to keep an eye on Friday's severe weather. The SPC and NWS has come around to what Mike Morgan was saying about Fridays severe weather outlook for Central and Southern Oklahoma as of this mornings wording and graphics from them.

Just to be clear, SPC first put out a risk eight days in advance of Friday (so, last Thursday) mentioning the possibility of severe weather on Friday. It's not like they're only just now recognizing the threat MM started mentioning days ago.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/archive/2017/day8prob_20170414_1200.gif

The current SPC risk for Friday is focused on southern OK and the metro is at the very northern edge of it. Of course that could definitely change.

Friday looks more of a washout. If it is a big severe weather day, it would be more to the south if we get less morning/early afternoon storms than forecast.

Friday looks more of a washout. If it is a big severe weather day, it would be more to the south if we get less morning/early afternoon storms than forecast.

This is right, the way the low is ejecting, it puts the warm sector as the heightened severe weather, and everything else just heavy rain and storms.

However, it does bear a close watch as the storm changes every update on the models. Currently GFS puts the low's triple point directly over OKC Friday afternoon.

Here is where it currently lies for the Slight Risk:

13760

Here is the latest Outlook map from Mike Morgan for Friday's severe weather.

13761

And when Friday might this event be occurring?

Morgan can make big calls like that. The consequences for him being wrong are lower than the payoff he would get for being right. It's the business of doom.

Anybody worried about Friday should watch Aaron Tuttle's most recent livestream.

A lot could go wrong with this setup. The TV meteorologists are jumping on the worst possible scenario, which at this point is definitely not a sure bet.

Yeah the amateur mets I follow are extremely skeptical on Friday being absolutely cataclysmic but they do say if literally everything lines up perfectly and it's a lot of stuff that has to line up perfectly it does have the potential to put out some very dangerous storms, one met said it'd probably be the strongest we've seen yet this year. But again literally everything would have to fall into line perfectly and that's a very very very slim shot right now.

This is why I can no longer follow/watch Morgan. How can he make this prediction when everyone else is a notch or two below ?

Well I can guarantee there will be some Thunder in OKC Friday night.... And my original plans were to walk the mile from from my office to the game..... The TV mets last night were saying it could be over in OKC by evening time.... So I sure am hoping they are right.

More assured hazards from the system the next few days look to be the potential for flooding rains. NWS Forecast Discussion talks about the potential for 1.5-5.0" of rain in central and north-central Oklahoma, particularly late Thursday into Friday just north of wherever the warm front sets up.

This is why I can no longer follow/watch Morgan. How can he make this prediction when everyone else is a notch or two below ?

Nor I. I also know some folks in the Emergency / Hazard mitigation biz who refuse to work with him. He looks at all possible scenarios and goes with the one that's most hypable.

Nor I. I also know some folks in the Emergency / Hazard mitigation biz who refuse to work with him. He looks at all possible scenarios and goes with the one that's most hypable.
Mike MORGASM = fear monger. Odds are he will be right a certain % of the time. But as you said, almost always goes with the most HYPABLE.

Nor I. I also know some folks in the Emergency / Hazard mitigation biz who refuse to work with him. He looks at all possible scenarios and goes with the one that's most hypable.

I also know (well, knew) some folks in that emergency/hazard business who told me that a *bunch* of changes and "Don't EVER do this again"-type information was trickled down about that fiasco without ever mentioning his name. I think what he did became a bit of a sad joke in the industry, although it obviously wasn't funny.

I don't know about storms, but looks like the rain is pretty much expected to be heavy.

... FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A * FLOOD WATCH FOR FLASH FLOODING... FLOODING OF CREEKS AND RIVERS... AND FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA, EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA, AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA, INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS, IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA, CANADIAN, CLEVELAND, GRADY, KINGFISHER, LINCOLN, LOGAN, MCCLAIN, OKLAHOMA, PAYNE, AND POTTAWATOMIE. IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA, SEMINOLE. IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA, GARFIELD, GRANT, KAY, AND NOBLE. * FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING * RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITHIN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP. &&

There is a flood watch for more than the northeastern quarter of the state. It includes Oklahoma City.

FLOOD WATCH

Areas Affected:
Canadian - Cleveland - Garfield - Grady - Grant - Kay - Kingfisher - Lincoln - Logan - McClain - Noble - Oklahoma - Payne - Pottawatomie - Seminole
Effective: Wed, 4/19 3:45pm Updated: Wed, 4/19 5:51pm Urgency: Future
Expires: Sat, 4/22 12:00am Severity: Moderate Certainty: Possible

Details:

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING...
The National Weather Service in Norman has issued a
* Flood Watch for flash flooding...flooding of creeks and
rivers...and flooding of low lying areas for portions of
central Oklahoma, east central Oklahoma, and northern
Oklahoma, including the following areas, in central Oklahoma,
Canadian, Cleveland, Grady, Kingfisher, Lincoln, Logan,
McClain, Oklahoma, Payne, and Pottawatomie. In east central
Oklahoma, Seminole. In northern Oklahoma, Garfield, Grant,
Kay, and Noble.
* From late Thursday night through Friday evening
* Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches within and close to the watch
area. Higher amounts are possible.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...
A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on
current forecasts. You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible
Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be
prepared to take action should flooding develop.

AREA COVERED:

http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/png/oun.png

Channel 5 forecasts as much as 3 to 6" of rain in the northeast part of the state:

http://okie.world/images/aprilrain.jpg

Is anyone else getting the following screen when trying to pull up the Storm Prediction Centers website??

13768

First wave of storms develops this evening just west of I-44 corridor, then trains over the state. Temperatures are going to be knocked down into the upper 60s with this cold front coming through right now, so lacking instability will limit severe potential. There is still a chance some of the storms could try and drop small hail, especially early on in lifespan. Flash flooding will be primary threat with storms likely crossing the same regions.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2017042013/hrrr_ref_frzn_scus_15.png


After this initial wave of storms, models suggesting another forming out in the TX PH and pushing east during the early morning hours for Friday.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2017042012/nam3km_ref_frzn_scus_22.png

Then perhaps one more attempt at a round later Friday, but this is looking more likely that it would be contained to S and E OK. Will monitor changes.

Is anyone else getting the following screen when trying to pull up the Storm Prediction Centers website??

13768

They've been having problems off and on with it for the past few days. I know they're aware of the issue but I'm not sure what is being done to address it.

They've been having problems off and on with it for the past few days. I know they're aware of the issue but I'm not sure what is being done to address it.

Ok, Thanks just glad to know it isn't just me having the issue.

Looks like we are in an Enhanced Risk for Friday now.

13772

According to Damon Lane, it looks to be primarily a hail threat and not as much a tornado threat.

Snapshot of the type of waves we will be seeing overnight and into Friday morning. Heaviest rain projections are along and just south of I-40 where heavier thunderstorms are favored.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2017042020/hrrr_ref_frzn_scus_18.png

MD out for C and S OK.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0529.gif

Mesoscale Discussion 0529
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0540 PM CDT Thu Apr 20 2017

Areas affected...Northwest TX...OK

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 202240Z - 210015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to develop across northwest TX
into central OK this evening. Large hail is the primary risk with
this activity.

DISCUSSION...Surface front has stalled from east central OK into
northwest TX early this evening. With surface temperatures in the
mid 80s across northwest TX a corridor of modest instability has
developed from the TX South Plains to near the Red River. Latest
visible satellite imagery depicts a thickening CU field along the
front with deeper convection over Haskell/Knox Counties in TX
producing weak echo returns. As LLJ strengthens across this region
into southwest OK this evening it appears a marked increase in
thunderstorm activity will be observed. Numerous elevated
thunderstorms should blossom north of the boundary and adequate
mid-level lapse rates are in place for robust updrafts. Greatest
risk with this activity should be hail.

..Darrow/Dial.. 04/20/2017

Good soaking in Northern OKC so far.

The final heavy stuff is swinging through toward C OK right now. Most of OKC will likely top 2.5".

Severe threat for this afternoon will be SE OK.

This final wave coming in is now severe. Strong gusty winds and flash flooding.

Deer Creek schools cancelled today, due to weather related power outages. You don't see that every day. We live in the DC district and at 2:00 am I was hoping and praying the power would not go off.

Holy hail storm!

Fortunately, it was all pea sized, at least at my house.

Looks like we get a break for awhile then we are looking at another weather feature Thursday/Friday. The NWS was highlighting Friday this morning. Again, pretty meaningless 7 days out, but there will be something in the area right when we get to the peak of severe weather season. The risk is there until the high pressure builds in the summer.

Not much rain before work here in Norman. Since 7:30am we have had a ton of rain. Flooding all around!

My wife's boss is sending everyone home in anticipation of severe weather and a building-wide weather announcement was just made at my Southside high school. Basically a "we are monitoring the situation" type announcement.

My wife's boss is sending everyone home in anticipation of severe weather and a building-wide weather announcement was just made at my Southside high school. Basically a "we are monitoring the situation" type announcement.

Is this in reference to today or next week?

double post.

Looks like we get a break for awhile then we are looking at another weather feature Thursday/Friday. The NWS was highlighting Friday this morning. Again, pretty meaningless 7 days out, but there will be something in the area right when we get to the peak of severe weather season. The risk is there until the high pressure builds in the summer.

SPC seems quite worried about Friday. If it was Mike Morgan I would just blow it off, but the SPC using the kind of language they are using this far out is very concerning.

Is this in reference to today or next week?

This was today. I get the impression her boss is very sensitive to bad weather and doesn't like her employees going anywhere when there is weather.

I mean unless they are just looking for an excuse to leave for the weekend early. OKC is done with severe weather today.

SPC seems quite worried about Friday. If it was Mike Morgan I would just blow it off, but the SPC using the kind of language they are using this far out is very concerning.

Don't get yourself all worked up, man. This doesn't have to be a miserable time of year. Take it one day at a time and be grateful. I come here for cool-headed wx info, not constant hand-wringing. A worried thought just doesn't help you, or anyone, or the situation.

Per wunderground reports, the most rain concentrated in the Edmond and El Reno areas with 3 to 5+" amounts. One amount was 5.6".

I was a little annoyed at News 9 covering the same two matters (flooding in the Deer Creek area and the downed utility poles on North May) for the entire hour during which The Price is Right was supposed to be on. If the incidents were rapidly evolving and life-threatening, I might understand the need to interrupt regularly scheduled programming for the sake of wall-to-wall coverage. But News 9's reporting on the same two issues was a bit overkill. Could not a news ticker at the bottom of the screen or very brief interruptions sufficiently communicate the same stories?

Aside from that, I was glad to see that our blackberry and grape trellises stayed upright through the storm, and I'm especially thankful for the much-needed rain.

Well that was doozy! May ave between 63rd and Wilshire got rekt!

My boss's house had some damage at it in Harrah, a couple trees blown over, flagpole knocked down and gate bent a bit.

My boss's house had some damage at it in Harrah, a couple trees blown over, flagpole knocked down and gate bent a bit.

He is the owner of a business he should be able to afford to fix those things without a problem. Most working people would just have to cobble it back together as best they could.

He is the owner of a business he should be able to afford to fix those things without a problem. Most working people would just have to cobble it back together as best they could.

Um every boss is not a business owner

He is the owner of a business he should be able to afford to fix those things without a problem. Most working people would just have to cobble it back together as best they could.

And not every business owner is rolling in cash.

Same ole, same ole. Aaron Brackett, Ch 4 weather dude, already hyping next Thurs and Friday as possible significant severe weather days.

He is the owner of a business he should be able to afford to fix those things without a problem. Most working people would just have to cobble it back together as best they could.

Where the heck did this comment come from? Really?! WTH>?

Per wunderground reports, the most rain concentrated in the Edmond and El Reno areas with 3 to 5+" amounts. One amount was 5.6".

Rainfall amounts mostly from Friday:

http://okie.world/images/rain48hr.png

Same ole, same ole. Aaron Brackett, Ch 4 weather dude, already hyping next Thurs and Friday as possible significant severe weather days.

He was still doing it for the the 10 pm show.

Same ole, same ole. Aaron Brackett, Ch 4 weather dude, already hyping next Thurs and Friday as possible significant severe weather days.

Thursday and Friday are looking pretty ominous. There is still a lot of variables in play, but it very well could end up being a classic high-end central Oklahoma severe setup (think 5/31/13). We will need to wait a few more days though to get a better idea of how things will set up.