Last cold morning for a while will be Friday morning. Then we will shift lows back into the 40s, instead of near freezing.

Gradual warm up continues into the weekend, which looks great.

Next rain chances moving in Monday night into Tuesday, but look slim at this time.

Think we are out of freezing range? Deciding to open up my sprinkler system.

Think we are out of freezing range? Deciding to open up my sprinkler system.

Simple answer is we aren't fully out of the woods yet.

How cold does it have to get to mess up your sprinkler system? When have you opened it up in previous years? If you open it up can you shut it back down if you have 24 hr notice that a freeze is coming?

Simple answer is we aren't fully out of the woods yet.

How cold does it have to get to mess up your sprinkler system? When have you opened it up in previous years? If you open it up can you shut it back down if you have 24 hr notice that a freeze is coming?

I just like to keep the lines clear until after the freezing season. I am just going to wait until April. This early spring is doing some work on my yard. Going to have to mow this weekend!

No matter how warm it gets, I still remember my wonderful aunt who always warned against doing ANYTHING outside until after Easter for the risk of freeze. She was an absolutely brilliant natural gardener who supplied nearly our entire family with the most fabulous vegetables (eggplant, zucchini, tomatoes, you name it) for years until she just wasn't able to work in the yard anymore....

Anyway, bottom line...no matter what the computers and the models may say...my aunt trumps 'em :)

We should finally get a break from this ridiculous wind tomorrow. Extreme fire danger today. Winds come back Wednesday and Thursday, but not as strong as the last few days.

If there was one thing to change about OK weather, without a doubt it would be the wind.

Next decent rain chances look like maybe late this weekend into early next week.

March has been living up to its reputation as a very windy month. This afternoon, my backyard anemometer recorded it's highest gust for 2017. It's 41 mph.

http://www.stillwaterweather.com/wxgraphic.php?type=banner_big (http://www.stillwaterweather.com/)

Just saw this today: https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/severe-weather-threat-extreme-fire-danger-over-southern-plains


The 2017 tornado season is running far ahead of average
The highly progressive pattern that’s kept midlatitude storms shuttling across the United States all winter has given an early boost to the U.S. tornado season of 2017. Such a progressive pattern is important but not sufficient for producing early-season severe weather. Even if upper-level conditions favor severe weather, there may not be enough time between midlatitude storm systems for unstable air to flow back into place from the Gulf of Mexico. This year, however, the Gulf and Caribbean have been consistently warm, which has helped generate plenty of warm, moist air for midlatitude storms to access. In records back to 1981, this is the first year in which sea surface temperatures averaged across the entire Gulf never dropped below 73°F, as discussed by Eric Berger at ArsTechnica and shown in Figure 5 below (thanks to WU member Mark Cole for this tip). As of Monday, SSTs over the western Gulf were running 1°C - 2°C (1.8-3.6°F) above the seasonal norm.

Thus far in 2017, NOAA/SPC has logged 268 preliminary tornado reports. This is roughly double the average of 133 reports racked up by March 5 over the preceding 11 years (2005-2015). This year also stands out in a longer-term perspective, even after you “inflation-adjust” the data back to 1954 to account for the increased tendency since then for a given tornado to be spotted, chased, photographed, videotaped, etc. After the inflation adjustment, this year’s preliminary total of 228 tornado reports (see Figure 6 below) compares to a long-term average of just 69 reports by this point in the year.

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Figure 5. In data extending back to 1981, sea surface temperatures averaged across the Gulf of Mexico were the warmest on record this winter. Image credit: Michael Lowry, @MichaelRLowry.

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Figure 6. “Inflation-adjusted” cumulative tornado totals for the period 1954 - 2016 (various colors) and 2017 to date (black). The red trace shows the highest adjusted value observed on each date through the year, with the lowest value on each date in magenta. Image credit: NOAA/SPC.

About 30 minutes ago, we were out on the patio looking at beautiful clear skies and stars. Then, without warning, not five minutes ago, my husband says he thinks he sees lightning. My response was that it couldn't be lighting. Then, just as suddenly, we have about 30 seconds of hail, the largest of which was pea-sized. Then a couple of raindrops and very small claps of thunder. All this just a few blocks of Midtown. Typical Oklahoma random weather!

About 30 minutes ago, we were out on the patio looking at beautiful clear skies and stars. Then, without warning, not five minutes ago, my husband says he thinks he sees lightning. My response was that it couldn't be lighting. Then, just as suddenly, we have about 30 seconds of hail, the largest of which was pea-sized. Then a couple of raindrops and very small claps of thunder. All this just a few blocks of Midtown. Typical Oklahoma random weather!
Sounds like it developed over your heads.

Quite possibly. And it stopped as suddenly as it started.

There has been some pretty amazing images coming from the new GOES-16 satellite. It will be a great asset when it becomes fully operational. I bet it will be a lot easier to see storms developing along the dryline.

I've always heard to wait until after Easter or tax day regarding potential freezes.
March is always an interesting month and it's no stranger to a freak snow around here.

And just like that, Tulsa's forecast for the next few days includes a couple lows below freezing. Gonna be a cold weekend.

Is OKC going to get *any* rain out of this little Saturday system?? Kept hearing 100% POP for the area most of the week, and here we are at 1pm and its still bone dry here in SW OKC. Not a drop....so far..

This was never going to be a washout. Just a solid chance at drizzle and showers. Which continue to develop over C OK, they will slowly push south with development.

This was never going to be a washout. Just a solid chance at drizzle and showers. Which continue to develop over C OK, they will slowly push south with development.

Oh I know it wasn't a washout, but I was perfectly happy with the idea of maybe a 1/4" or so of free water, that's all.

Cold dry north wind now guessing we won't get squat?

Cold dry north wind now guessing we won't get squat?

Sure looking that way. Man. So much for 100% chances 😁

Uh, have you guys been outside? We've gotten 0.08" at the OKC North mesonet site so far. 0.07" at Spencer, 0.05" downtown, and up to 0.48" in Guthrie. Sure it isn't a washout, but certainly more than "squat" and not a bust in the slightest...

^
Funny!!

Uh, have you guys been outside? We've gotten 0.08" at the OKC North mesonet site so far. 0.07" at Spencer, 0.05" downtown, and up to 0.48" in Guthrie. Sure it isn't a washout, but certainly more than "squat" and not a bust in the slightest...

We got maybe 30 seconds of cold spider spit.

How many thousandths of an inch in a squat?

Reinforcing cold front coming through overnight. Should spark off some light rain showers.

Tomorrow will be cold with strong north winds. Then the rest of the week will be cool while we will slowly climb back toward 70 by Friday.

A weak storm will move through the region on Friday. Best rain/storm chances appear to be eastern OK but not great chances there. The models are showing a bit more moisture available today so we'll see if anything trends upward. The entire state will be in the 80's early next week with continuing high fire danger.

The one to watch will be next week. The GFS has been consistently showing a big storm coming through around Mar. 22/23. Obviously a lot can change but it looks like a pretty classic early season severe weather maker.

^ I concur with the above. Beautiful outdoor weather for the next handful of days. Friday looks very nice, with lighter winds - but could be relatively cloudy with an outside chance at a rain shower.

The weekend looks superb. Storm chances increasing toward Wednesday evening and Thursday.

Awesome weekend on tap with the green beer.

Slight storm chances moving in beginning Tuesday. Potentially significant storm coming in late next week around Thursday. Could see SPC long-term convective forecast area marked out in the coming days.

http://i.imgur.com/YaDWGhk.png

Okay, Anon, tell me I'm nuts, but are we already seeing a *very* early-season pattern of storms and precip firing up along and more *east* of I-35? And I notice the graphic in the previous post reflecting a similar notion.....I have no empirical data to back this up, but it seems to me (purely on an reactive basis) that once you see storms or patterns in a region of the state early in the season, that area tends to be where they develop for the *bulk* of the season...I'm probably crazy, but it sure seems that way. That is, two or three years ago when we had all the rain, it seemed like a lot of those storms even several days apart followed a very similar general path...

http://i.imgur.com/YaDWGhk.png

Post today from a meteorologist i follow on Facebook said the latest models shifted the scary graphics east to around Tulsa and east of there.

Yeah, things have shifted more to the east which is fairly typical for this time of year. Things start shifting more west as the season progresses.

I love warm weather, but crap it's too hot and humid for March.

Okay, Anon, tell me I'm nuts, but are we already seeing a *very* early-season pattern of storms and precip firing up along and more *east* of I-35? And I notice the graphic in the previous post reflecting a similar notion.....I have no empirical data to back this up, but it seems to me (purely on an reactive basis) that once you see storms or patterns in a region of the state early in the season, that area tends to be where they develop for the *bulk* of the season...I'm probably crazy, but it sure seems that way. That is, two or three years ago when we had all the rain, it seemed like a lot of those storms even several days apart followed a very similar general path...

I'm not Anon, but your intuition doesn't sound wrong. You need moisture to get storms, and a portion of the moisture we get evaporates from the ground/evapotranspirates from plants. If the ground is dry or plants are dead/sparse, we get less moisture, leading to less storms, leading to drier ground, and hotter/drier air that is less conducive to storms going forward. With most of the state under drought right now it wouldn't shock me if there was more mixing than usual resulting in a further east dryline, on average.

If you want to get really nerdy and technical, here's an example of some work done by a classmate of mine on the connection between soil moisture and dryline position: https://ams.confex.com/ams/96Annual/webprogram/Paper288659.html Among other things, "Removal of soil moisture resulted in an eastward shift of the dryline boundary... Further, the position of the dryline during May, under weak synoptic forcing or quiescent conditions, was extremely sensitive to surface conditions. This is compared to April dryline simulations in which the differences were not as significant. The simulations demonstrated that modifying surface conditions impacted the nature of the dryline during this period, and showed that soil moisture conditions which developed during the early warm season in 2011 (1) modified the typical dryline pattern and (2) led to the evolution and perpetuation of drought over Oklahoma in 2011."

We saw this a few years back when it was extremely dry across the state. Eastern OK averages much more rain than central and western parts of the state. But even they are experience drought conditions.

This is one of the reasons it is so difficult to get out of a drought, the cause/effect keeps compounding on itself and eventually the entire area's climate changes.

Extreme fire danger today for Monday. It will be straight up hot this afternoon with highs near records. Cool down comes on Wednesday and then we warm back up ahead of powerful storm for Thursday night into Friday. At this time, due to the timing of the system - C OK will likely experience a line of strong storms overnight Thursday into Friday AM. Eastern parts of the state will get hit with the next day's development on Friday afternoon where severe risks will go up significantly. Saturday and Sunday look beautiful with Saturday being the cooler of the two.

Focus will shift quickly toward early next week as another powerful system is right on the heels of the first. Around Monday and Tuesday there is a shot as severe weather again.

I'm not Anon, but your intuition doesn't sound wrong. You need moisture to get storms, and a portion of the moisture we get evaporates from the ground/evapotranspirates from plants. If the ground is dry or plants are dead/sparse, we get less moisture, leading to less storms, leading to drier ground, and hotter/drier air that is less conducive to storms going forward. With most of the state under drought right now it wouldn't shock me if there was more mixing than usual resulting in a further east dryline, on average.

If you want to get really nerdy and technical, here's an example of some work done by a classmate of mine on the connection between soil moisture and dryline position: https://ams.confex.com/ams/96Annual/webprogram/Paper288659.html Among other things, "Removal of soil moisture resulted in an eastward shift of the dryline boundary... Further, the position of the dryline during May, under weak synoptic forcing or quiescent conditions, was extremely sensitive to surface conditions. This is compared to April dryline simulations in which the differences were not as significant. The simulations demonstrated that modifying surface conditions impacted the nature of the dryline during this period, and showed that soil moisture conditions which developed during the early warm season in 2011 (1) modified the typical dryline pattern and (2) led to the evolution and perpetuation of drought over Oklahoma in 2011."

That's *great* information!! Thanks for posting it.

Okay, Anon, tell me I'm nuts, but are we already seeing a *very* early-season pattern of storms and precip firing up along and more *east* of I-35? And I notice the graphic in the previous post reflecting a similar notion.....I have no empirical data to back this up, but it seems to me (purely on an reactive basis) that once you see storms or patterns in a region of the state early in the season, that area tends to be where they develop for the *bulk* of the season...I'm probably crazy, but it sure seems that way. That is, two or three years ago when we had all the rain, it seemed like a lot of those storms even several days apart followed a very similar general path...

It does seem this way. In 2013, the worst of the severe weather was focused on the metro area. 2014 was quiet statewide. 2015 was the year of no cap and a near record number (albeit weak) tornadoes statewide. Last year seemed to focus on southern Oklahoma. Will be interested to see what happens this year. I am hoping for a quiet year, at least in this part of the state.

Quoting from another forum:


"The 500 mb pattern progged over the next two weeks right now is nothing short of insane, especially by the standard of recent years. Nonstop intense shortwaves dropping into the Rockies and carving across the central CONUS, one after another, with no end in sight. It's been at least since 2011 since we saw a similar pattern in the springtime, and maybe 2008 for the Plains. Really, the first half of May 2003 is what comes to mind, looking at this morning's GFS. It's just happening 30-45 days too early to take full advantage with these short wavelengths, from a severe perspective."

Quoting from another forum:


"The 500 mb pattern progged over the next two weeks right now is nothing short of insane, especially by the standard of recent years. Nonstop intense shortwaves dropping into the Rockies and carving across the central CONUS, one after another, with no end in sight. It's been at least since 2011 since we saw a similar pattern in the springtime, and maybe 2008 for the Plains. Really, the first half of May 2003 is what comes to mind, looking at this morning's GFS. It's just happening 30-45 days too early to take full advantage with these short wavelengths, from a severe perspective."

Are you able to say which forum? I'm always interested in reading/learning more.

Are you able to say which forum? I'm always interested in reading/learning more.

Sure!

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/forum/14-centralwestern-states/

I know there is at least three potential events within the next week.

The local meteorologists are starting to hype Sunday as a possible significant tornado outbreak. It is the first potential major severe event of the season and they have a tendency to overdo the hype. Right now does it look like all the ingredients will be there, or do we need to wait until the 72 hour window?

The local meteorologists are starting to hype Sunday as a possible significant tornado outbreak. It is the first potential major severe event of the season and they have a tendency to overdo the hype. Right now does it look like all the ingredients will be there, or do we need to wait until the 72 hour window?

Won't know specifics until we are around 48 hrs before the storm rolls through. SO I would really start paying attention as we get into Friday afternoon and throughout the day on Saturday for specifics as to what to expect from the Sunday storm system.

Won't know specifics until we are around 48 hrs before the storm rolls through.

I agree. I am inclined to dismiss the hype after what happened on 4/26/16. The meteorologists had hyped it as an Armageddon-level event all week. As we moved into the 48-hour window, things didn't look just right for the kind of event they were hyping, yet they still didn't back off.

In March, with dews still in the 60s and CAPE around 3000, should that keep the threat of EF4/5 tornadoes on the low side?

I agree. I am inclined to dismiss the hype after what happened on 4/26/16. The meteorologists had hyped it as an Armageddon-level event all week. As we moved into the 48-hour window, things didn't look just right for the kind of event they were hyping, yet they still didn't back off.

In March, with dews still in the 60s and CAPE around 3000, should that keep the threat of EF4/5 tornadoes on the low side?

I didn't see much hype from David Payne, although he tends to be a lot more reserved. He said what others have said today, moisture doesn't look incredibly good. With all of these systems, it's really going to block the inflow of moisture as it doesn't allow for several days + of interrupted moisture flow. As least as far as I know, I'm not expert.

As far as I can see with my amateur mind, things seemed to have backed off a bit on the models in regard to Sunday. Which tends to happen occasionally. But it's still too far off to say anything conclusive.

I didn't see much hype from David Payne, although he tends to be a lot more reserved. He said what others have said today, moisture doesn't look incredibly good. With all of these systems, it's really going to block the inflow of moisture as it doesn't allow for several days + of interrupted moisture flow. As least as far as I know, I'm not expert.

As far as I can see with my amateur mind, things seemed to have backed off a bit on the models in regard to Sunday. Which tends to happen occasionally. But it's still too far off to say anything conclusive.

Thanks for the response. Yeah, I like David Payne. He seems to be the most down to earth TV meteorologist and makes it a point not to go crazy like the others do. The way he handled 4/26/16 has made me a News9 loyalist for severe weather.

I didn't see much hype from David Payne, although he tends to be a lot more reserved. He said what others have said today, moisture doesn't look incredibly good. With all of these systems, it's really going to block the inflow of moisture as it doesn't allow for several days + of interrupted moisture flow. As least as far as I know, I'm not expert.

As far as I can see with my amateur mind, things seemed to have backed off a bit on the models in regard to Sunday. Which tends to happen occasionally. But it's still too far off to say anything conclusive.

Yeah, moisture quality with this system isn't good at all around here. If there is enough moisture, it's going to have to make it in last minute. As of now the GFS has dewpoints around 40F Sunday morning and rising to the mid-upper 50s by Sunday evening, which ain't gonna cut it for anything significant.

Tonight extreme Western OK will be in play. Storms will eventually die out after sunset and maybe some remnants skirt through C OK, but nothing significant. Then Friday the dryline refires in Eastern OK with best chance at significant storms in SE OK.

Sunday's system looks to be pretty localized. Like maybe one or two decent storms (S to SE OK is best shot). Storms may fire directly over or east of I-35 that day, so C OK could go without precip. yet again.

Wednesday looks like a good shot at this time for more of a state-wide impact.

C OK will miss out on dryline action as expected. Later today we could see a few showers/storms pop up with the wrap-around that is currently moving across the TX panhandle.

Sunday looks like the severe action will be in eastern OK at this time.


Critical fire danger today, obviously.

Hmm Mike Morgan moved his risk area way more north and west covering the metro and SE OK for Sunday and said to be weather aware 6pm to 10pm Sunday night.

OKC Metro and points north and south from there are now in an enhanced risk for Sunday 3/26/2017. It all depends on moisture return

Thanks for the response. Yeah, I like David Payne. He seems to be the most down to earth TV meteorologist and makes it a point not to go crazy like the others do. The way he handled 4/26/16 has made me a News9 loyalist for severe weather.

You must either be new to state or have a short memory. At KFOR, he would lose his ever lovin' mind!

You must either be new to state or have a short memory. At KFOR, he would lose his ever lovin' mind!

I remember for sure when he was on KFOR, even his first year on 9 he got way too excited. But since he's really calmed down, maybe he took some pointers from Gary.

Yeah I agree, his first year with Gary he was very excitable and even for a bit after Gary retired but last year I thought he was phenomenal in keeping his cool and explaining how the risks are there but slim and they'll be watching it closely.

Now that said, when sh*t does start popping off he tends to go back to his roots and get very excited. But I'm kind of ok with someone being excitable when storms are bad, it keeps people engaged and watching.

As long as it doesn't seem like the boy who cried wolf, if there is a good chance of extreme danger, then the weatherperson should show a level of excitement, that transfers over through the tube and makes you feel that there is a sense of danger, but if they do it because of some drizzle or whatever then people won't react the way they should.

http://i.imgur.com/HBLwT1Q.jpg

Saw a bunch of people on other forums doubtful on moisture return up into central OK, but I'm guessing SPC is a bit more confident if they upgraded us to a moderate.

Will we be using venture's chat today?

I will be active later today. If someone can post the link to the chat that would be helpful. I am out of town, but will update later. Wasn't expecting the higher potential today.

I will be active later today. If someone can post the link to the chat that would be helpful. I am out of town, but will update later. Wasn't expecting the higher potential today.

Yep, looks like 60 degree dewpoints are already coming into southern Oklahoma.

Link to chat:

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/chat.html

Will this early line of storms suck some of the energy out of the atmosphere?

No. Full destablization is already back in C OK. Tornado watch is in place.

Money zone is Norman and south, but the northern edge will have some funky boundary plays. There is a possibility storms will be too crowded to become organized. But anything staying isolated will have a shot at major hail and tornado potential. Lack of warmer air at the surface could inhibit any tornado potential.

Action all south for now. Towers struggling west of OKC.