Darn! another missed shot at some rain. I know last week they were talking about the storm systems lining up all the way out into the pacific...well here in Midwest city we are 0 for 2 now.

Looks like most of the state is gonna get drenched this week. I hope so, I'd love a good soaking rain to start spring out right.

^ the entire state needs it.

Looks like it may be coming this Tuesday evening in the form of severe storms. Right now it looks like a pretty classic setup for severe storms developing in NW TX and W OK and then pushing east from there. More details will be known tomorrow.

Looks like S and S Central OK are presently in the higher-risk area for severe weather going into this afternoon. That frontal boundary runs almost parallel to the Red River from the SE Texas panhandle to the east and will move north through the day.

I get the impression that there is variability in the timing (isn't there always?) and that prospective region for severe weather could creep farther north near the metro. I would expect the "triple point" near that low, the dryline, and the front would remain a focus of attention as the system migrates north today.

I'll be interested in the next SPC update...we'd planned to go downtown this evening for a family birthday, but at this point I'm not sure if that's a wise idea....

One thing of interest I'll post here is the current "probabilistic" map for tornadoes, and right now that clearly focuses on the area just SW of OK in the SE TX panhandle, with a 10% risk area outlined in that area (this map was posted here about 6:45AM this morning):

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1probotlk_1200_torn.gif?1490701347067

Great chance for solid rainfall across much of the state, particularly C and N OK.

Moderate risk just added this morning across SW OK, 5% tornado area expanded to include a larger portion of C and S OK where there is some model indication of cells forming out ahead of the main cluster which would heighten rotation chances.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1300.gif?1490706447060

We should see a few small showers and storms pop up across WC to NW OK late morning into around lunchtime, but these will quickly push north and fizzle out. The main show comes tonight around nightfall when broken line(s) of storms develop across SW OK and NW TX and parade into C OK. Some models suggest additional clusters/lines developing behind the main wave. The severe threat will be with the initial line as potential exists for straight-line wind damage across C OK. Isolated tornado threat possible down in SW OK where cells will have a longer lifespan of being isolated. Per usual, any cells developing out ahead of the main cluster will have a bigger threat for hail and rotation.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2017032806/namconus_apcpn_scus_26.png


Worth noting, GFS paints ugly picture across OK this Saturday. Still far out for changes, but SPC is already painting a 10% zone on the state for Day 5.

Anon, what's your best guess about when this really comes into OKC? Saw an NWS map that put OKC on the (roughly) eastern edge of a window from 8pm-11pm IIRC, which would tell me we're more likely on the latter part of that time frame...

I think OKC could see several waves of development. A lot will depend on the clearing that is taking place across the state.

If you made me guess, I would say 8pm is a good bet. But NAM does suggest potential for earlier development out front of a main line.

I think OKC could see several waves of development. A lot will depend on the clearing that is taking place across the state.

If you made me guess, I would say 8pm is a good bet. But NAM does suggest potential for earlier development out front of a main line.

Good enough. Trying to decide if we want to bother getting out tonight for a family event in Bricktown :)

Warm air rushing north with dewpoints near 60F. On going storms in NW TX are starting to get rowdy.

Area in yellow will be prime for development this evening and this area is expanding northward. The area I circled in blue is the region where short-range models indicate the scenario of training cells that are more isolated than the line that will be forming further to the west. These cells will bear a closer watch as we head into the evening hours.

13717

MD is out:

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0355.gif

Mesoscale Discussion 0355
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0244 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

Areas affected...Northwest Texas into southwest Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely

Valid 281944Z - 282215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Ongoing severe thunderstorms as well as new development
are expected to spread across much of northwestern Texas and into
southwestern Oklahoma through evening, with a threat of tornadoes,
wind and hail. A new tornado watch is likely.

DISCUSSION...A broken line of supercells currently extends from just
east of Lubbock toward Midland along a dryline. To the east into the
Abilene area, visible satellite shows deepening boundary layer
cumulus where heating is occurring. Just to the north, stable billow
clouds were noted which also corresponds to an area of
backed/easterly surface winds.

Models continue to suggest a large cluster of cells developing ahead
of the western line of storms by about 21Z. These cells would then
spread northeastward.

All modes of severe appear possible in this situation. Cellular
activity may become supercellular with a tornado threat as the
boundary layer shear will be increasing this evening. However,
magnitude of storm interaction is unknown at this time, which could
have a negative impact on tornado potential. Even so, a merging
cluster could still result in one or more severe bows containing
damaging wind and hail.

..Jewell/Guyer.. 03/28/2017

Is chat going to go? That is real helpful here at work.

Is chat going to go? That is real helpful here at work.

Yep, chats up. Pretty quiet now until things get going though.

Link again:

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/chat.html

Virtually every cell is tornado-warned down in NW TX. The trend is for them to cluster up and become less favorable for tornados, but with sunset we could see a timeframe of favorable conditions which makes cells split again, or train in a line with appendages capable of producing spinups.

Keep an eye on south-central OK for cells to develop ahead of the main cluster. Anything developing in that area will have a solid shot at becoming strong storms.

Tons of redevelopment behind this initial cluster. This will be a fantastic soaking for a lot of OK.

Severe Thunderstorm Warning for basically all of OKC metro. Straight line wind gust is the main threat as the line is bowing out. After that it is a localized flash flooding threat.

Enjoy the drink tonight!!!

Thanks, Anon. Just turned off our irrigation system.

70+ mph wind with initial gust front coming into N sides of OKC. El Reno had confirmed 95mph gust @ Mesonet site.

Canton area looks like it's getting crushed. Good news for lake Hefner

Some good amounts of rain in most of the western half of the state, so far:

http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/realtime/current.24hour-rainrfc_front580.png

What a great way to start the season for the entire state.

Is that big storm that's over the Texas panhandle going to move east and douse us as well?

Is that big storm that's over the Texas panhandle going to move east and douse us as well?

Only western OK. That wrap-around rain will be lifting north as the day progresses. However, the TX PH will get soaked! Which is good for the rest of OK in terms of seasonal chances @ rain.

Only western OK. That wrap-around rain will be lifting north as the day progresses. However, the TX PH will get soaked! Which is good for the rest of OK in terms of seasonal chances @ rain.

Cool. Thanks for the response! It will be very good to see western OK get some rain.

Severe chances have decreased for Saturday, but still a good shot @ storms in the state.

Whats the rainfall looking like for Sat/Sunday in the metro?

Best chance at storms tomorrow are SC and C OK. May see a quick thunderstorm Saturday morning, then the main line Saturday evening. Severe threat is relatively low.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2017033118/namconus_apcpn_scus_17.png

Need an April board.....:)

Don't post any April weather here. Do it on the new April thread. So let's end the March thread on a humorous note:

https://scontent-dft4-2.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/16832187_1325077704215819_5902017466589764108_n.jp g?oh=294fd621bd6500841a1058aecafa5748&oe=5965C6E7