View Full Version : General Weather Discussion - January and February 2017
Anonymous. 01-01-2017, 10:45 PM Rain is likely Monday morning as a quick band of showers and storms will ride up from the SW.
Weather turns cold on Tuesday. Highs will struggle to make freezing from Wednesday on into to the weekend.
Winter precipitation has been wildly inconsistent with the models. Perhaps a chance Friday.
OSUPeterson 01-04-2017, 06:21 AM So I just saw on the news that okc metro is going to miss out on any snow.
Any chance for a storm in the coming weeks?
SoonerDave 01-04-2017, 07:31 AM I don't think anyone has any idea what's going to happen. Ch 9 is saying the OKC area is likely to get at least a dusting of snow now, and S. OKC could see even more than the northside.
I think I'm going to roll some dice. Call it the RNG forecast (Random Number Generator).
Anonymous. 01-04-2017, 08:41 AM As of this morning. Models are coming in with general amounts between 0-3". With many indications that there will be a very narrow band of the heavier side of things (3"). Both NAM and GFS currently placing that likely band somewhere from Amarillo to about Lawton. Since this system has very little moisture to work with, amounts will be difficult to squeeze out.
Again, not everyone will see measurable snow. We are talking potentially a swath of about 20-40 miles wide of anything ground-covering, if at all. Storm track is everything.
Bunty 01-04-2017, 12:07 PM http://aarontuttleweather.com/2017/01/04/quick-look-expected-snow-totals/
TU 'cane 01-04-2017, 01:55 PM http://aarontuttleweather.com/2017/01/04/quick-look-expected-snow-totals/
All I know of Aaron Tuttle is that issue with Red Dirt Report (or whoever) and both parties claiming they were gonna sue one another.
That aside, is his reputation as a meteorologist solid? That page you sent contained enough information and was put to where I could understand it fully.
Roger S 01-04-2017, 01:57 PM All I know of Aaron Tuttle is that issue with Red Dirt Report (or whoever)
The Lost Ogle
TU 'cane 01-04-2017, 02:03 PM ^^ Ok, I knew it was one of those. Thanks.
Anonymous. 01-04-2017, 03:55 PM Afternoon models coming in with about the same as this morning. So we are finally getting agreement. Maybe a trend to shift the heavier band further north towards I-40 corridor instead of south of. Will keep track of this.
GFS latching onto heaviest snow along I-40 on Friday morning.
Anonymous. 01-05-2017, 09:57 AM Models trending towards additional moisture this morning. Thus, snow totals could be higher if it holds. Also the trend to move the heavier band further north over I-40 has continued.
Winter Weather Advisory for basically central W and C OK for tonight.
As of this morning here are the model forecast amounts:
GFS: I-40 corridor heaviest band 2-5" (highest amounts out towards Elk City, then tapering off as you head east)
NAM: I-40 corridor heaviest band 1-3"
GEM: I-40 corridor heaviest band 1-2"
WRF: S of I-40 corridor heaviest band 1-2" (Lawton to Norman area)
Like I mentioned earlier, this will be a swath of a heavier snowband that may not exceed 20 miles N to S, so every deviation in track will significantly adjust the totals in your area. The radar tonight will tell the real story.
OKCRT 01-05-2017, 11:16 AM http://aarontuttleweather.com/2017/01/04/quick-look-expected-snow-totals/
I know many people that follow him like a religion.
Weather Channel shows snow to start in City area around 9:00 this evening through 5:00 tomorrow morning.
Bunty 01-05-2017, 12:09 PM Models trending towards additional moisture this morning. Thus, snow totals could be higher if it holds. Also the trend to move the heavier band further north over I-40 has continued.
Winter Weather Advisory for basically central W and C OK for tonight.
As of this morning here are the model forecast amounts:
GFS: I-40 corridor heaviest band 2-5" (highest amounts out towards Elk City, then tapering off as you head east)
NAM: I-40 corridor heaviest band 1-3"
GEM: I-40 corridor heaviest band 1-2"
WRF: S of I-40 corridor heaviest band 1-2" (Lawton to Norman area)
Like I mentioned earlier, this will be a swath of a heavier snowband that may not exceed 20 miles N to S, so every deviation in track will significantly adjust the totals in your area. The radar tonight will tell the real story.
Canadian model:
http://aarontuttleweather.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/snku_acc.us_c.png
Of Sound Mind 01-05-2017, 01:13 PM Canadian model:
What do Canadians know about snow?!? ;-)
Anonymous. 01-05-2017, 02:29 PM High Resolution models are coming in this afternoon with suggestions of a very narrow strip of heavy snow somewhere south of Woodward and trailing off to the SE towards OKC. 5"+ amounts. Sort of like what we have seen today near Dodge City, KS. A narrow strip of heavy snow just parked over the same area.
We could see a narrow corridor of counties upgraded to Winter Storm Warnings if a solid heavy snowband develops over a concentrated area.
warreng88 01-05-2017, 04:22 PM What do Canadians know about snow?!? ;-)
Or modeling...
OKCRT 01-05-2017, 06:00 PM David Payne Ch 9 predicting 1-2 inch in OKC south side getting more than northside. I have seen reports from dusting to 5 inches from other sites.
Anonymous. 01-05-2017, 07:03 PM Newest HRRR is near bread & milk levels for OKC.
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2017010523/hrrr_asnow_us_18.png
OKCRT 01-05-2017, 07:55 PM That looks like it's rolling down I-40 taking aim for OKC
LocoAko 01-05-2017, 08:03 PM Newest HRRR is near bread & milk levels for OKC.
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2017010523/hrrr_asnow_us_18.png
Yep. 6-8" stripe across northern Cleveland County. Would be pretty shocked if that happens, but these bands have been known to do some crazy things.
http://maps2.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/hrrr/2017010600/018/snku_acc.us_c.png
bradh 01-05-2017, 08:35 PM Damn wish that heavier band was a little further north so my place on the NW side got that much but oh well.
OKCRT 01-05-2017, 08:43 PM Damn wish that heavier band was a little further north so my place on the NW side got that much but oh well.
I think the whole city will be digging out come morning. Looks like a Doozie of a storm headed right for Ok City.
Anonymous. 01-05-2017, 08:48 PM I-40 is going to be a the hotspot.
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2017010601/hrrr_asnow_us_17.png
Anonymous. 01-05-2017, 08:53 PM Watching the band develop now near Amarillo. It may take aim just south of I-40. But models are saying it will lift north and combine with northern development.
yukong 01-05-2017, 10:09 PM Snowing out NW OKC near Piedmont. Streets already covered lightly.
Anonymous. 01-06-2017, 12:26 AM I-40 corridor becoming mostly saturated. Heaviest snows will begin reaching ground in next few hours. Still looking at the heaviest band being I-40 with 2-4", isolated heavier amounts in sustained banding.
BoulderSooner 01-06-2017, 01:10 AM There is close to 2 inches in midtown right now
Bunty 01-06-2017, 02:31 AM A half inch in Stillwater, so far.
TU 'cane 01-06-2017, 02:35 AM Woke up for no reason and decided to peek outside and report here.
A rather minor dusting in South Tulsa right now.
educator1953 01-06-2017, 05:08 AM We have just a dusting of snow down here at my house in Duncan. I can still see the grass in the yard, so we haven't gotten much snow here so far.
bradh 01-06-2017, 05:13 AM My daughter's soccer ball (think it's a size 4) has about snow almost half way up in Deer Creek area
SoonerDave 01-06-2017, 05:35 AM As best I can tell (kinda dark right now lol) we are right at 3-4" here in SW OKC, around 104th and May.
sayyes 01-06-2017, 06:46 AM Anyone know how the roads are in Norman?
Bill Robertson 01-06-2017, 07:12 AM As best I can tell (kinda dark right now lol) we are right at 3-4" here in SW OKC, around 104th and May.I'd agree with that. That's my estimate of what we're shoveling / plowing at the airport. It's very light, dry snow so it's easier to deal with.
OSUPeterson 01-06-2017, 07:12 AM Anyone know how the roads are in Norman?
Not sure about Norman, but I just drove to work from the east end of midwest city to just north of the Capital. Roads are too bad, even the ones that haven't been touched. Just give yourself room. The biggest problem I had was on the highway and that was because the cars were just kicking up so much dry snow powder it made visibility very hard at time. Just gotta slow down and give more room.
Dr Beard Face 01-06-2017, 08:04 AM Anyone know how the roads are in Norman?
Not great, but not awful. I just got to downtown okc but I came from south east Norman. Nothing has been cleared, but due to traffic, I35 was the clearest drive of any road I was on today. I think I passed about 6 or 7 cars that were on the side of the road, not sure if some were just there before the snow though. I did end up drifting twice, but not too bad.
LocoAko 01-06-2017, 08:59 AM Officially measured 2.6" in NW OKC this morning, though somehow it looked like more. Guess it's just been a while since I've seen real snow. :P Somehow the airport only measured an official 1.7", though totals seem to be in the 2-3" range around the metro from what I've gathered. A surprisingly good and steady forecast from the NWS especially considering the plethora of models showing more.
Anonymous. 01-06-2017, 08:59 AM It seems downtown got a lesser amount than both north and south. So the suburbs are where you are going to find the more problems. Especially tonight with the packed down powder freezing into an ice rink.
I was in Edmond and it seemed like twice as much as downtown. Edmond probably got closer to the 4" mark.
There is a great sledding hill behind my house and there are some kids over there already.
I need to figure out how to improvise a sled and get over there.
http://www.okctalk.com/images/pete/010616b.jpg
educator1953 01-06-2017, 11:08 AM Goodness! We are having the most beautiful heavy snowfall at the moment here in Duncan! It really is pretty!
Earlier this morning there was not much snow, and now the ground and patio are covered.
Anonymous. 01-06-2017, 11:28 AM Snow will be ending soon across much of the state, last batch of heavy snow swinging through S and SE OK.
Temperatures will be near zero Saturday morning, especially in places where the snowpack is thickest. After that, things eventually thaw out heading into next week and we could be back in the 60s by Tuesday.
Next storm action looks to be about this same time next week. Right now it appears it could be rain.
^
Really appreciate the updates!
SoonerDave 01-06-2017, 11:46 AM My basset hound loved romping through what I'm reasonably sure was his first snow. It was *so funny* to catch his Stunned Dog Expression face when he'd expect the tennis ball my kids threw to him bounce, but suddenly just disappear into a *poof* of snow, like "HEY, WAIT A SEC, THE SNOW ATE MY BALL!" Then he'd just go off running in circles and rather than leave pawprints, he left more of a "canal" as his low-slung Bassett body just galloped through the powder. Awesome, silly dog fun.
SomeGuy 01-06-2017, 11:56 AM Question, will roads be fine for the weekend?
turnpup 01-06-2017, 12:54 PM This is representative of what we got just a couple of blocks north of the Midtown border:
13409
Looks to be about 3 inches.
Anonymous. 01-06-2017, 01:08 PM Question, will roads be fine for the weekend?
Black ice and snowpack on side roads and parking lots will be the threat mostly tonight and Saturday morning. And less Sunday morning. We should have sunshine that will melt a lot of the streets via radiation even though the temperatures will struggle out of 30s.
Bunty 01-06-2017, 01:43 PM About an inch of snow in Stillwater, enough to close schools.
http://www.stwnewspress.com/news/residents-wake-up-to-blanket-of-snow/article_c7935f1e-c96c-5ff4-be3e-eccce24ca46f.html
ultimatesooner 01-06-2017, 02:08 PM There is a great sledding hill behind my house and there are some kids over there already.
I need to figure out how to improvise a sled and get over there.
http://www.okctalk.com/images/pete/010616b.jpg
take the hood off of your car and flip it upside down, you'll have the coolest sled there
Roger S 01-06-2017, 02:24 PM I need to figure out how to improvise a sled and get over there.
When I was a kid all we needed was a piece of cardboard and some duct tape to waterproof it a little.
Andrew4OU 01-06-2017, 03:28 PM What's the outlook for next weekend? Looks like another wave of arctic air and weather may be coming.
Bobby821 01-06-2017, 05:12 PM Next weekend we could be looking at a freezing rain event. Here is a snip it from the NWS afternoon forecast that talks about it.
Through mid-late week details with regards to amplitude and
timing of individual waves becomes less clear. Typical ensemble
spread at that time range is seen and differences in the
deterministic models become more evident. Nevertheless, above
normal temperatures should continue until Thursday when an
anomalous/intense trough in Canada moves east and sends a shallow
arctic air mass toward our area by Thursday night or early Friday.
There are varying scenarios in the medium range model guidance
at the very end of the forecast period but at least a few
scenarios are more amplified and closed off with a southern stream
system which lags behind (out of phase) with the aforementioned
northern wave. Conceptually this is a scenario that could lead to
winter weather concerns, specifically freezing rain. The 12z ECMWF
and about one third to half of the GFS ensembles show a pattern
favorable for this. We will need to watch trends closely for a
potentially impactful winter weather event Friday into Saturday.
stratosphere 01-07-2017, 10:48 AM Freezing rain is not good :eek:
SomeGuy 01-07-2017, 11:15 AM Yeah, please no more winter precip heck I'd be fine with regular rain.
Bunty 01-07-2017, 11:47 AM Wow, more than just a few below zero lows Saturday morning in Oklahoma. Two locations in Oklahoma had -12 for the lowest.
https://scontent-dft4-2.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/15871522_1434548319897924_6224916091838398710_n.pn g?oh=c60a5c661d4529dcf395e3d94a3f5be9&oe=5919B4F2
Anonymous. 01-08-2017, 12:38 PM We will make 60s Tues, Wed, and Thurs. Fire danger will be very high through the week. This is all ahead of an extremely large storm system coming across the US. This has the makeup of a classic winter storm for this part of the country. One of those, "Severe thunderstorms in SE OK with blizzard conditions in NW OK." We are still 5 days from event, but models are consistent on impacts from the storm. Precipitation type will be a very fine line, so forecasters will lose a lot of hair this week.
As it looks today for C OK, hefty ice storm late Thursday into Friday and being followed up by several inches of snow over the weekend.
OKCRT 01-08-2017, 12:47 PM Pulling for snow, even blizzard conditions instead of ice.
TU 'cane 01-08-2017, 06:16 PM Welp, it's that time of the year for us.
Keep us posted as always, and thanks again all.
OkiePoke 01-08-2017, 06:19 PM I'm flying in to OKC on Friday. I will keep checking this page to anticipate delays.
TU 'cane 01-08-2017, 10:02 PM Started reading around after checking this earlier and it does certainly appear that this weekend may be VERY interesting for this part of the country.
SoonerDave 01-09-2017, 10:14 AM NWS is actually putting out a Special Weather Statement about this Friday. Seems this is getting just a bit more serious as time passes - and I think they deserve kudos for the specific wording that, in effect, says they just don't know exactly where the freezing line is going to end up, and for everyone to stay alert as the week progresses:
...Dangerous Winter Storm Possible Friday into Sunday...
A slow moving storm system will affect the southern Plains Friday
into Sunday, bringing heavy amounts of precipitation to the
region. A wintry mix of primarily rain and freezing rain is
expected across the area. Some sleet and snow may also be
possible across northern and western parts of Oklahoma. Exact
precipitation types, amounts, and locations remain uncertain at
this time.
What we know at this time:
* Significant ice accumulations over 0.25 inches will be possible
for portions of Oklahoma and western north Texas.
* Snow and sleet accumulations could occur in western and
northern Oklahoma in addition to any ice accumulations.
* Flooding may result due to heavy rainfall across portions of
south central and southeastern Oklahoma.
* Impacts...Hazardous travel conditions will be likely. Power
outages may result from heavy ice accumulations.
What can you do now?
* Stay up to date with the latest forecasts, check back frequently
for updates.
* If you are traveling this weekend, be prepared to change your
plans and make sure you have a safety kit in your car, such as a
blanket, water, a flashlight, and nonperishable food.
* Be prepared if you lose power, make sure you have flashlights,
extra batteries, food, and your cell phone charged.
Bunty 01-09-2017, 10:48 AM Maybe it reflects the models are already in fairly close agreement with each other about the storm.
The special statement covers all but eastern Oklahoma. Counties included:
Alfalfa; Atoka; Beckham; Blaine; Bryan; Caddo; Canadian; Carter; Cleveland; Coal; Comanche; Cotton; Custer; Dewey; Ellis; Garfield; Garvin; Grady; Grant; Greer; Harmon; Harper; Hughes; Jackson; Jefferson; Johnston; Kay; Kingfisher; Kiowa; Lincoln; Logan; Love; Major; Marshall; McClain; Murray; Noble; Oklahoma; Payne; Pontotoc; Pottawatomie; Roger Mills; Seminole; Stephens; Tillman; Washi ta; Woods; Woodward
http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/png/oun.png
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