It doesn't help that the weather guys are going "we have x5000 super radar, we are more right than the other guys".

Its an on-demand age we live in now. People want a 100 percent accurate forecast for next week now. The old timers didn't have to work with that kind of pressure in their day. They could get away with leaving the forecast kind of ambiguous because people had the habit of taking things day by day.

Now people say "You have x5000 super radar! You should be 100 percent right all the time!".

That expectation isn't exactly helped by 100% forecasts from those very people....

Emily Sutton is apparently fighting back against some flak on Facebook, inviting people to "try predicting freezing rain themselves" since it's so hard. She's using the "we keep people safe" card. And maybe that's the key: Stop trying to make "safety" the priority (which rationalizes ANY forecast), and make *weather forecasting* the priority. Let the "safety" calls flow from that.

Like it or not, they're creating a generation of people who simply no longer believe them. If they stop believing, they stop watching, and that's a bad combination for local TV that is trying to stay alive by selling the relevance of its locally produced content.

Models did not do a good job with precipitation. They were overzealous with development during the day Friday along the boundary that only saw intermittent showers and drizzle. The one area that saw a consistent rain ended up getting coated in ice along I-40 near Weatherford. This initial coating of ice made temperatures 4-5 degrees colder in this spot for the entire day, so when the waves came through overnight - the result was much quicker and extensive impacts from the freezing rain that did fall. This is a lot like what happened across C OK last year for the Thanksgiving weekend storm. The initial waves coated everything, causing temperatures to be much lower than originally forecast - the result was a solid ice storm. However, the temperatures during that were still around 30F - so it wasn't completely disastrous. For a catastrophic ice storm you really need temperatures lower than about 27-28. OKC was able to sustain @ around 29-30 all day Friday and Friday night, which by the time the heavy waves moved in, the warm air was already eroding the cold layer at the bottom (see freezing line moving NW now).

All that being said, it isn't just OK. All of KS and MO have been under Ice Storm Warnings longer than Oklahoma and some of them haven't seen a drop of precipitation. The models just went too crazy with precipitation and coverage on Friday, that ended up actually being extremely localized.

anon, doesn't that suggest just too much reliance on the models??

I feel like Emily Sutton's push back to her criticism shows her immaturity and lack of accountability for both her science and her interpretation on model results. Telling people they need to step up to the plate and predict winter weather is dumb. I've never liked that retort. She is the one being paid money to interpret all of the information available to her to make her best interpretation. If it's wrong, it's wrong. If I push back on criticism that my boss gives me because I made the wrong interpretation that cost the company money, it probably wouldn't go very well for me. There is nothing wrong with stepping back and saying, "look, our models didn't work out this time, and that led us to make erroneous forecasts. We learned a lot from this storm and will be looking at this data from a different perspective next time."

Spot on, CM. That response was a little surprising. And just on an initial reaction it did seem a little juvenile.

It was a bit sad to see the continued coverage of the ice storm with little to show. I kept waiting for a TV met to say, "well, it appears that this is not going to be as bad as we first thought" but if that was said I didn't hear it. David Payne did say this morning that things were basically over for OKC in terms of icy conditions.
This storm seemed to fool most forecasters--even the weather channel with their Winter Storm Jupiter hype were all about it. I have a cousin who lives in Kansas and she told me they also had widespread school closures for nothing on Friday. Just one of those storms, I guess. Will probably be a long time before school districts make the call so early.

This happened last year or the year before where schools closed (even Tinker AFB closed) and the freezing rain did not come. It was dry the entire day. I don't foresee a learning lesson out of it because we are living in the moment anticipating the foretasted storm and need to be prepared. We cannot 100% predict something that we have no control or the slightest bit of influence of, which is the weather.

anon, doesn't that suggest just too much reliance on the models??

I don't really know how you can be a forecaster without using models. This will be however be a learning experience that will help scientists make models more accurate. Sometimes models are right and sometimes they are wrong.

I did find it premature for all these schools and state offices to close the night before.

anon, doesn't that suggest just too much reliance on the models??

Honestly, I don't think forecasts would have been much better without using them. Over-reliance on the models is definitely a concern, but the large-scale pattern here definitely suggested an ice storm... hence the NWS mentioning it in their forecast discussions from a whopping 8-days out. A lot of the focus was on where the 32F line would set up, for obvious reasons, but I think many just assumed the storms would be a guarantee. In the end, I think the "bust" (moreso of expectations than the actual forecasts) was due to two things: road temps just being a tiny bit warmer than anticipated, and the showers that developed dropping less precipitation than forecast. In both cases, these are exceedingly hard to predict considering how nonlinear and binary the consequences are. If pavement temps were 1-2F cooler, everything could have been coated in a sheet of ice and we wouldn't be having this conversation. Freezing efficiency also seemed to be under-predicted, as radar estimates of precipitation generally showed what was forecast, if a bit less. Again, freezing efficiency can change with as little as 1-2F, and we're just not at the point where we can nail that down (consider how remarkably well temperatures were forecast even in the face of models not performing too well there), and not using models would not have aided there. Unfortunately, in cases like this, a tiny little change in temperature results in a binary change in outcome. As far as precipitation goes, it is incredibly hard to predict with accuracy when dealing with such low amounts. Models rely on a number of assumptions in their microphysics to save computing time, but ultimately very minute differences can affect the outcome there... how much evaporates, little changes in temperature aloft affecting instability and whether showers develop,, etc. That's not to make excuses for forecasts falling short, but freezing rain events are notoriously hard for a reason, and I think ordinarily differences of this magnitude in terms of forecasts vs observations go unnoticed when not right at the 32F line.

The only way I think overreliance on models have have hurt us was last night when some of the models changed to show heavy storms in the metro yet what developed on radar was much less. As I noted last night, the HRRR wasn't initializing well and was showing storms early on in the forecast that weren't there, perhaps a warning sign not to trust it too literally. However, there was fairly good consensus and lift moving into the area, so I see why they decided to take a chance and upgrade the forecast (imagine the consequences of not doing so and having a surprise 0.5-1.0" of freezing rain hit OKC overnight). To the person who said all the forecasters are youngsters, that's just not true. Perhaps on TV, but the NWS in Norman has plenty of veterans forecasting.

Separately, I think the hype got out of control with this storm... and that's not the NWS's fault (though perhaps the media's, I wasn't watching closely). Up until last night, only 0.1-0.25" was forecast for the metro, and it was always known we'd warm up above freezing Saturday. Why people panicked as if the apocalypse was coming and cleared the shelves in supermarkets was always silly to me, and I said as much two days ago. I don't know why there was a runaway fear with this one as OKC was never supposed to bare the brunt of this, but I definitely think those expectations result in people's feeling of a "bust" more than the actual outcome (I wound up with at least 0.1" on my trees... so initial forecasts weren't all that off...). If there was any failure here, IMO it was the failure to communicate the uncertainty and scattered nature of these showers rather than showing large swaths of "high power outage risks" for OKC (looking at you, KFOR...), followed by 3 changes to the forecast in the following 5 hours. Ugh.

As an aside, I also found the response by Emily Sutton to be unbecoming. Her pushing back against people calling this a premature bust yesterday was perhaps warranted, but ultimately you take responsibility for your forecasts and move on.

Sorry for the rant. Signed, a frustrated and conflicted meteorologist.

If anyone has links to the local met drama, please post. I am always down for a good read. :D

If anyone has links to the local met drama, please post. I am always down for a good read. :D

Below is the link. She actually got mostly complements and understanding.

https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=1396613790389019&id=258406517543091&__tn__=%2As

In the grand scheme of things, if we have to have something that's hard to accurately predict, I'd sure rather it be winter precip than tornadoes. I'm so thankful that meteorologists now have the technology to give us several days' heads-up on the super high-risk days during the spring months.

I'd argue about the same in South Tulsa. Just iced enough to see covered on my bushes and trees. Just had a bout of light rain as well that lasted for probably 30 mins.

Weather channel forecast said the worst is yet to come and will be pushing into later today/tonight.
With temps now like 30-31, I'm concerned they may not be able to get just above freezing for what comes later tonight. Northwestern Oklahoma, where the worst was forecast, looks to be getting it for now.

The freezing line is nearly stationary. Models are confident that the warm air will win over, but right now it is struggling for sure. I would attribute some of the struggle to the 'refrigeration effect' from the current light ice accumulations across SW, W, and C OK.

Below is the link. She actually got mostly complements and understanding.

https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=1396613790389019&id=258406517543091&__tn__=%2As

I'm certainly not one to *bash* mets for the "swing and a miss" on this, but I do think that you cannot simultaneously live in the fishbowl of TV meteorology and effectively bathe in its notoriety one day, then kick back when those forecasts - however well intentioned - go awry for whatever reason. You have to stand up and say, "hey, this is what the data told us, and it didn't pan out that way." I think what LocoAko said was very apt - you stand up for the forecast, you learn from it, and you move on. Given that's a response from someone who works at the Drive South channel, I'm willing to give her a bit of a break thinking in terms of how that staff is probably guided.

Also, city and state authorities have to recalculate just when they're going to call emergencies and mass school closing *the day before* an event hits. That's when the forecasts that fail hit the wall. You just blew a snow day for most metro districts and, for whatever reason, it wasn't necessary. And I remember seeing graphics from virtually every local channel putting up 100% forecasts for ice across much or most of the state, so in that vein it's a bit hard for me to accept the response of "this is hard to forecast." If it's truly *that* hard to forecast, man, that 100% certainty really must mean something.

From what I'm reading, this has not just been a bust in OK, but going north and east up through KS and MO the precip levels haven't panned out - and the NFL moved a freakin' playoff game as a result of the forecasts. So this isn't just a matter of Emily Sutton missing a forecast or David Payne freaking out - these variables mixed up to throw forecasters across the region for a loop - and a lot of people are understandably frustrated.

I'd just like to see one TV or even NOAA met just come out and say *something* to the effect that the broad forecast over the last week just didn't pan out as the data led them, and try to improve going forward. I'm kinda bothered by (some of) the TV people who are saying "this is exactly what we forecast," when I just can't say that's a fair response. You can't create a forecast that led to mass school closures, event rescheduling, city services being moved, electrical service trucks coming in from out of state, only to have almost *none* of it pan out, and then say "this is what we forecast." I remember a big snow forecast several years ago on one Saturday, I think around or just after Christmas, calling for supposedly 6-10" for the metro, and we got dry-slotted. I've been leery of big snow forecasts for OKC ever since - especially those set out in advance by the GFS....

Perhaps NOAA regionally needs to get more in the middle of this, although I'm not sure how. If they perceive the TV mets are going overboard, then they need to hop on social media and say so.

I'm just hoping people *learn* from this. Just brickbatting the mets for getting it wrong doesn't help, so I'm surely not trying or wanting to do that. Make the models better, learn what kinds of factors might have led one not to trust the models, figure out what the outlier variables were, integrate everything, and make the process smarter for everyone going forward.

Like I told Anon earlier this week, I wouldn't want to be a meterologist in OK during the winter. Seems to me its a much tougher job than the severe stuff in the springtime. You'd be pulling your hair out in no time.

A lot of this was people over reacting to being caught off guard by the evening ice event in December.

Most places did see some freezing rain ot was just way below previous expectations so I don't see anything wrong with what how NWS handled things. TV forecaster always go into their own catagory.

Meanwhile, here in NW OKC we are still at 31F (had expected to go above freezing by mid-morning) with occasional freezing rain showers. Now have a freezing rain advisory through tomorrow morning for the potential of up to another 0.2" of glaze. Go figure. :P

Elevated objects in OKC will continue to accumulate ice heading into tonight.

Elevated objects in OKC will continue to accumulate ice heading into tonight.

Hey Anon, just wondering if this storm system is still going to give us some good moisture to help alleviate the drought we are in. I know for awhile they were predicting upwards of 2 inches or more of rain here in central Oklahoma but with the way this storm is panning out or should i say not panning out im very skeptical.

Moderate freezing rain now coming down near NW Highway and Mustang Road.

Hey Anon, just wondering if this storm system is still going to give us some good moisture to help alleviate the drought we are in. I know for awhile they were predicting upwards of 2 inches or more of rain here in central Oklahoma but with the way this storm is panning out or should i say not panning out im very skeptical.

may end up closer to 1.5 depending on how much falls tonight, but tomorrow should be good for a solid inch over the general C OK area.

Freezing line is retreating back to the SE as we head into dark. Roads will be okay, elevated objects will accumulate.

Freezing line keeps retreating. May have to add counties back to the FRZ Advisory... Meanwhile, NW half of the metro is seeing moderate icing taking place.

I found this storm's soundtrack.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZnHmskwqCCQ

In Stillwater, the temp has been very slowly trying to go up a tenth of a degree at a time. As of 7pm, with temps mostly 32 or 33, light rain was falling in Stillwater. It's not freezing, since rain wasn't freezing on my car while parked at a restaurant. More rain coming in from Logan County.

http://www.stillwaterweather.com/wxgraphic.php?type=banner_big (http://www.stillwaterweather.com/)

The rain is falling so heavily in some places, it is actually warming the surface air. This can be observed just NW of OKC and in through the Enid area. The majority of ice accumulation will take place with light rain and drizzle.

Arron Tuttle, meteorologist reported at 8:15 pm that "My tree limbs are bending over. Eeek! A few power outages reported now in OKC. Accumulating ice continues... (Edit: 31.8 degrees at the house, come on just 0.3 degrees more and I'm in the clear!)"

NW OK is getting it pretty bad. Freezing line beginning to race back to the NW now. Tomorrow will be cold and damp, and a big time drink in the evening.

That must be that "wall o' water" David Payne was talking about.

I'm all for being prepared........I'm surprised that people are pissed that we DIDN'T get a direct hit from an ice storm. The forecasters kept you safe with the best information they had.....These are the same people that wanted heads a month ago, or would lead the charge if they hadn't warned us about the storm and we did get a direct hit.........Take a deep breath people geez...look at the big picture...JMHO

I'm jaded regarding severe weather forecasts anymore.
I don't care either way. Better to be prepared for the worst.

I was hoping for a huge record breaking snow storm. Since we didn't get snow I am happy it was just rain mostly. Ice is a no go for me.

I'm all for being prepared........I'm surprised that people are pissed that we DIDN'T get a direct hit from an ice storm. The forecasters kept you safe with the best information they had.....These are the same people that wanted heads a month ago, or would lead the charge if they hadn't warned us about the storm and we did get a direct hit.........Take a deep breath people geez...look at the big picture...JMHO

This ^

A look at the current lightening activity going on in Texas and Oklahoma: http://en.blitzortung.org/live_lightning_maps.php?map=31

Looking at the current radar, the vast majority of the state is getting a soaking rain right now, which is a good thing for ponds, lakes, the water table, etc.

Looking at the current radar, the vast majority of the state is getting a soaking rain right now, which is a good thing for ponds, lakes, the water table, etc.
Precipitation now as of 2 am appears to be mostly over with from this weekend storm system, except for the eastern part of the state. It amounted to 2.26" here in Stillwater at my rain gauge. It will be interesting to see how much of a dent it makes in the drought here, now classified as severe.

http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/realtime/rainrfc.48hr.png?1484556987892

http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/data/pngs/current/current_ok_trd.png?1386457140

Amazing soaking. This was definitely rare for winter time and much needed. If we can get another good one of these before spring, it would really go a long way.

I'm jaded regarding severe weather forecasts anymore.
I don't care either way. Better to be prepared for the worst.

The problem is that if you repeatedly forecast the worst, and the majority of that target forecast area gets next to *nothing* (in the vein of most extreme weather - in this case, an extensive ice storm), people stop listening to those "forecasts for the worst." There's got to be some middle point in the extremes. Within the "forecast to be safe" mindset, I think the tendency is to *over* forecast the worst, with the irony being that when the worst case doesn't happen, you lose credibility. I think right now there is an emerging generation in their 20's or so are simply not listening to the forecasts because - deserved or fair or not - they perceive the history of these forecasts to be more likely to "bust" and simply don't believe them.

One of the problems for me is the arrogance that oozes from them. Not only the weathermen and women, but the whole entire newscast team from all the channels.

One of the problems for me is the arrogance that oozes from them. Not only the weathermen and women, but the whole entire newscast team from all the channels.
Agree 100%. Especially Sutton and Morgasm.

Agree 100%. Especially Sutton and Morgasm.

I don't blame Sutton quite so much because she's certainly having to do what The Boss tells her, and if that means hype it up, hyping it up is exactly what she'll do.

The problem is that, eventually, this is all going to come to a head - local TV stations are finding it harder and harder to stay relevant and local news/weather/sports is a vital revenue stream. I wonder if any station - just one of them - would dare be willing to come out and just say "Hey, we blew the last forecast. We'll try to do better." What *really* irritates me is that Ch 9 seems to just be doubling down by sending lots of video trucks to Woodward and focusing on their ice damage to make all the forecasts seem rationalized.

I still watch the locals just for kicks and giggles but with NWSNorman being so communicative with the daily video recaps during bad weather I find myself listening to them more than anyone now.

One of the problems for me is the arrogance that oozes from them. Not only the weathermen and women, but the whole entire newscast team from all the channels.
Yep. I see at least 6 billboards on my way to and from work plus numerous commercials telling me how accurate their weather/news is and how "We have superior technology they don't ", etc. If they're going to brag to us about how amazing they are then they should be prepared to catch flack when they're way off. Let's say an NFL QB promises a Super Bowl win before the season and his team doesn't make the playoffs. That preseason promise is going to be played on Sports Center over and over and he deserves it!

Thread Police revving up... much of this page could be moved to the Oklahoma Media - Weather Coverage (http://www.okctalk.com/showthread.php?t=36970) thread.

After all the hoopla (or is that hubbub?) from last week, the ten-day GFS looks fairly mild and quiet..50's and 60's this week...maybe a chance at some showers on Saturday into Sunday, but it looks like the big jet stream track south is going to keep the moisture a bit restrained. Maybe some marginally cooler air coming in perhaps way at the end of the 10-day GFS forecast window, so take that for what it's worth this far out.

After all the hoopla (or is that hubbub?) from last week, the ten-day GFS looks fairly mild and quiet..50's and 60's this week...maybe a chance at some showers on Saturday into Sunday, but it looks like the big jet stream track south is going to keep the moisture a bit restrained. Maybe some marginally cooler air coming in perhaps way at the end of the 10-day GFS forecast window, so take that for what it's worth this far out.

I'll take it. That's what nice about our winter weather, the arctic never sets in for long.

This might be a bit off topic, but the first high risk in two and a half years was issued today for parts of Georgia and northern Florida. Hopefully they get through it alright.

Amazing setups with this storm system that has been scooting across the south. This is the largest 30% hatched tornado area I have ever seen.

Two nice days with this Monday and Tuesday, then normal winter temperatures come back in for the remainder of January. Lows in upper 20s, Highs in mid to upper 40s.

No major storms on the near horizon, we will be in NW jetstream flow.

Critical fire danger today:

http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/noaa/wwa/maps/realtime/latest.oklahoma.fire.gif

Forecast heading into the first week of February looks more mild than we have had the last week or so.

Highs in 60 with lows in the 30s. Next storm chances coming in around this coming weekend. At this time it looks like rain, but has switched to snow on some runs.

Forecast heading into the first week of February looks more mild than we have had the last week or so.

Highs in 60 with lows in the 30s. Next storm chances coming in around this coming weekend. At this time it looks like rain, but has switched to snow on some runs.

Remembering 2011... certainly not out of the realm that we could get crazy winter weather this time of year.

Remembering 2011... certainly not out of the realm that we could get crazy winter weather this time of year.

An Okie old timer told me when I first moved here 8 years ago that some of the heaviest snows he's seen in his life in Oklahoma were in March! So we are certainly not out of the woods yet by any means for wintry weather.

An Okie old timer told me when I first moved here 8 years ago that some of the heaviest snows he's seen in his life in Oklahoma were in March! So we are certainly not out of the woods yet by any means for wintry weather.

This! Back when I was a student at OU, well into a particular spring semester (don't remember the year, probably '85, but my recollection is telling me it was March), a pretty impressive snowstorm hit the area and, as a commuter student, I opted to bail on afternoon classes and get back to OKC before the worst hit - and I was too late. I drove back on a single-lane of snow-packed I-35 and remember a drive that normally took me maybe 15-20 minutes took me close to an hour.

This! Back when I was a student at OU, well into a particular spring semester (don't remember the year, probably '85, but my recollection is telling me it was March), a pretty impressive snowstorm hit the area and, as a commuter student, I opted to bail on afternoon classes and get back to OKC before the worst hit - and I was too late. I drove back on a single-lane of snow-packed I-35 and remember a drive that normally took me maybe 15-20 minutes took me close to an hour.

From 1951-2001, heavy Oklahoma snows (accumulations >4") were most common in the month of January, followed by March and February, respectively. Then there is a fairly sharp drop-off to December, and another fairly sharp drop-off to November. Heavy snows can occur in October or April but are exceedingly rare. Interestingly, if you consider only accumulations >12", March and January are tied. If you consider only >16" accumulations, March leads the pack. Five of the ten heaviest snows in state history (through 2001) occurred in March. This is likely due to the generally greater available atmospheric moisture in March, which is related to the (relatively) warmer air available in the month of March.

These statistics are somewhat skewed by the state's climate regions, though. March snows are relatively more common in the Panhandle and in northeastern Oklahoma. In central Oklahoma (Kingfisher, Canadian, Logan, Oklahoma, Cleveland, McClain, and Grady Counties), heavy snows (>4") are most common in January, followed by a near-tie between December and February. March is in a relatively distant fourth-place.

In Oklahoma City specifically, 15 of the top 99 accumulating snows (about 2" and up) occurred in March. (5 were in November, 19 in December, 33 in January, and 27 in February). For those 4" and greater (total of 32 events), 3 were in November, 5 in December, 11 in January, 7 in February, and 6 in March. The biggest March snow at OKC was on March 10, 1948, when 8.4" of snow were recorded. That's good enough for 3rd-most all-time, after the 2009 Christmas Eve blizzard and the February 1, 2011 snowstorm. I tried to find the March '85 storm but it doesn't appear in any OKC records (but given the nature of snow accumulations it is entirely possible that there were big accumulating snows in Norman, Moore, or other parts of OKC, just not at the airport!). There aren't any major March OKC snowstorms in the 1983-1987 period, but February '86 was a big snow month (6.5" on the 7th and 3.8" on the 10th). January 18, 1987 was also a big storm (8.3"). And '87-'88 was a massive winter for snow, with 8.3" on December 14, 1987, and 8.3" again on January 6, 1988. What I would give to have lived here during that winter :-)!

Storm system for this weekend is drying up. Maybe a slight chance in OKC Saturday night, but nothing too extreme. Eastern OK is the best shot at rain.

The drought is building here across the state and fire danger will be at critical levels next week and beyond.

Growing up in Tulsa we could always count on a sizable March snowstorm. They never lasted very long afterward though. Recently that hasn't been the case it's been too warm. I'd be curious if the higher elevations in far NE Oklahoma and NW Arkansas are able to pick up more snow in the spring. I remember driving down to Poteau once in February and seeing snow on the tops of a few of the taller mountains near there but not in the valleys or towns.

Growing up in Tulsa we could always count on a sizable March snowstorm. They never lasted very long afterward though. Recently that hasn't been the case it's been too warm. I'd be curious if the higher elevations in far NE Oklahoma and NW Arkansas are able to pick up more snow in the spring. I remember driving down to Poteau once in February and seeing snow on the tops of a few of the taller mountains near there but not in the valleys or towns.

Most of my memories of really heavy snowfall have been in Jan/Feb/March. The blizzard of 2011 happened right around this time.

If the storm system is drying up, how do the temperatures for this weekend look?

So could this potentially be it for snow/ice this winter since temps look to be above average in the near future?