^^ Must be me then.

Drizzle and showers forming now across SE OK, this will spread to the W and SW and begin training SW to NE with a development movement to the N.

Was he skinny Al or Big Al ? Seriously though, I have also heard the national media talking about storm Juniper all week.
Winter Storm Jupiter: Crippling Plains Ice Storm Begins Early Friday After West Buried in Feet of Snow https://weather.com/storms/winter/news/winter-storm-jupiter-west-snow-plains-midwest-northeast-ice?cm_ven=PS_GGL_Jupiter_LP1_01112017_1&gclid=CKas_f3EvtECFQGraQodDKgFyA

Somehow, Stillwater hasn't had a serious ice storm since 2002. It will be interesting to see if it can keep up the good luck of avoiding them this weekend. During the 2002 Stillwater ice storm, a branch from a Bradford Pear tree fell on the house. No serious damage. Later, while at work, electricity went off for over an hour. It wasn't much fun trying to read under the dim light of battery backup lighting.

Stillwater Public Schools and OSU are closed for Friday.

Brought a bunch of firewood up to the porch, got two crock pots cooking (chicken and dumplings and pulled pork for tacos), and signed up for another free trial of HBO for some binge watching. My disaster preparedness is complete.

Schools probably could have had class today as I don't think we will get enough freezing rain to really cause the roads to go downhill until later tonight.

Temps ranging from 27-29 across OKC. That is enough to make bridges sketchy but crews have likely treated most of the bridges in advance.

Short-range models show precipitation becoming heavier along I-44 in the 4-8pm window.

12Z NAM slamming I-44 corridor through Saturday afternoon. Showing convective freezing rain around midnight tonight. Some of the amounts from Woodward to Ponca City, up in far NW to N OK, are devastating.

Not a thing going on down here at my house in Duncan. Everything dry as can be. Sure hope we get some rain, but I hope we don't get any ice. I remember the ice storms of the past when our electricity was out for a week. Not fun! I don't wish that for anyone!

12Z NAM slamming I-44 corridor through Saturday afternoon. Showing convective freezing rain around midnight tonight. Some of the amounts from Woodward to Ponca City, up in far NW to N OK, are devastating.

All three NAMs (12-km, 4-km, and 3-km) are now showing 0.5-1.0"+ of ice in OKC and just NW of there overnight into tomorrow morning. Would certainly be a turn of events... not a trend you want to see last minute.

http://maps4.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam3km/2017011312/027/zr_acc.us_c.png

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam4km/2017011312/027/zr_acc.us_c.png

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2017011312/027/zr_acc.us_c.png

Just for reference, here is a high-resolution NAM model with the latest data. Showing near 2" of liquid across much of I-44. And this is with temperatures in the 28-30F range. Now that does not mean 2" of ice equivalent, especially considering the rate at which some of it will be falling, But this will certainly impact elevated objects significantly.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2017011312/nam4km_apcpn_scus_14.png

Was he skinny Al or Big Al ? Seriously though, I have also heard the national media talking about storm Juniper all week.

I don't think any media outside NBC or the Weather Channel is using the name Juniper...or Jupiter...or whatever else idiot thing they're calling it...really hate that gimmick.

I don't think any media outside NBC or the Weather Channel is using the name Juniper...or Jupiter...or whatever else idiot thing they're calling it...really hate that gimmick.

Amen.

NW OKC - Haven't seen much precipitation get to the ground. Had ice on the vehicles this morning, but not fully covered.

Is this precipitation getting to the ground?

So, basically after sun goes down until lunch tomorrow, look out?

Just for reference, here is a high-resolution NAM model with the latest data. Showing near 2" of liquid across much of I-44. And this is with temperatures in the 28-30F range. Now that does not mean 2" of ice equivalent, especially considering the rate at which some of it will be falling, But this will certainly impact elevated objects significantly.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2017011312/nam4km_apcpn_scus_14.png

So would this suggest an amendment to the ice storm warning? It would seem to me if temps below freezing are now on tap plus this change in moisture projections that the ice storm warning boundary would be pushed a lot farther south to cover the metro.....or am I missing something?

Norman was dry this morning. Glad we didn't get hit. Hoping for the same tonight.

NWS will likely discuss upgrade this evening once we see a development location and trend.

At least we're supposed to soar above freezing on Sunday! Melting should be rapid. No one's mentioning that bit of silver lining much. At least we're not going to be in the freezer for days following this event, therefore giving relief to trees and power lines.

True but if OKC gets 1 inch of ice will there be any trees or power lines standing? That much ice even for just 24 hrs would cause a lot of damage.

They are starting to change the forecast to heavier amounts in OKC area up to 1 inch of ice.

I fully appreciate what a hard call it was for schools like Norman to cancel classes for today. I certainly appeared from TV reports that it would be icy this morning. Out of curiosity only (not complaining) what went a bit wrong?

I fully appreciate what a hard call it was for schools like Norman to cancel classes for today. I certainly appeared from TV reports that it would be icy this morning. Out of curiosity only (not complaining) what went a bit wrong?

1. Districts made the decision way to early and didnt wait to see what the latest forecast was.
2. They lumped the whole event together without factoring in that the worse conditions will actually occur tonight and not this morning/afternoon.

Ironically, the forecast may be worse than expected if those models for tonight pan out

FRZ rain advisory expanded south and east to encompass group of counties S and E of OKC where the freezing line has hardly regressed NW.

ISW upgrade may be coming tonight for Grady, Canadian, McClain, Cleveland, Oklahoma, and Lincoln counties. High resolution models are continuing to suggest training of heavy waves of freezing rain overnight directly over C OK.

I fully appreciate what a hard call it was for schools like Norman to cancel classes for today. I certainly appeared from TV reports that it would be icy this morning. Out of curiosity only (not complaining) what went a bit wrong?

Stubborn High Pressure system moving very slow keeping the storm out west at bay longer than anticipated. Also keeping temps down in the area. Maybe some of the experts could explain better but that's what I get out of the delay.

That makes sense. I was following lots of different sites yesterday and it did sound like it would be icy this morning. I hate it for the districts because they will face criticism, but if they hadn't called off schools and we did have an ice rink they would have been hounded for that too. Tough position to be in.

All of the OKC metro will be upgraded to an Ice Storm Warning in the next forecast package. 18z guidance 2m temps are still too warm by 3-4F depending on your model of choice. There will be lots of variation from neighborhood to neighborhood in terms of what ice accumulations you can expect, but there should be impactful ice accumulations in various parts of the metro starting this evening and running into Saturday morning.

Visual of the newly upgraded ISW:

http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/noaa/wwa/maps/realtime/latest.oklahoma.snowice.gif?1484343587645p

13429

any idea what time this is all supposed to happen?

The drizzle is already happening. It will continue to increase heading into the evening and we will see waves of rain develop along I-44 and ride up to the NE. Models are suggesting heaviest waves coming into OKC near midnight or shortly after. Embedded convection possible within waves. Again, this will be very localized to C OK, and not everyone who has an OKC address will receive the same amount.

Well the grocery store I work at officially has sold more groceries today than we did before Thanksgiving http://www.sdubz.com/forums/styles/smilies/smilies/happysad.gif
In Stillwater, on Friday afternoon, the east side Wal-Mart had been replenished with plenty of bread and milk with short lines.

any idea what time this is all supposed to happen?

This. I need to figure out if a drive from Norman to Lawton would be any riskier than normal from 5-6pm tonight. Would be a baby in the car so if any risk we would cancel.

I don't think any media outside NBC or the Weather Channel is using the name Juniper...or Jupiter...or whatever else idiot thing they're calling it...really hate that gimmick.
I don't take much offense to it. But I hope people will end up wondering why they didn't call it Winter Storm Pluto.

The drizzle is already happening. It will continue to increase heading into the evening and we will see waves of rain develop along I-44 and ride up to the NE. Models are suggesting heaviest waves coming into OKC near midnight or shortly after. Embedded convection possible within waves. Again, this will be very localized to C OK, and not everyone who has an OKC address will receive the same amount.

thank you

I went to the store this morning to get a few things for chili, it was completely stocked.

They were wiped out yesterday but they were restocking as they got a truck this morning. Nothing better than a fully stocked store with fresh product with very few customers.

The first substantial freezing rain batch (that will impact OKC) is developing now over Lawton.

In your guys' opinions, how will we be looking tomorrow night at about this time? I've got a bunch of friends that were going to come hang out tomorrow at 7pm for my birthday but I'm trying to figure out if I should postpone those plans due to the expected impacts of the ice.

The only thing about this type of weather is that it doesn't show up on RadarScope Pro. Kinda dissatisfactory...

The first substantial freezing rain batch (that will impact OKC) is developing now over Lawton.

And that would suggest arrival in OKC likely before midnight, wouldn't it, Anon?

And that would suggest arrival in OKC likely before midnight, wouldn't it, Anon?

Yes, it will be here in the next hour or two. The midnight stamp is the beginning of the most lift as the storm really gets moving out of the west. This is when the most convective showers will develop along I-44. The heavy waves could last all night into the late morning hours (and probably later).

Yes, it will be here in the next hour or two. The midnight stamp is the beginning of the most lift as the storm really gets moving out of the west. This is when the most convective showers will develop along I-44. The heavy waves could last all night into the late morning hours (and probably later).

That chunk which started down near Lawton appears to be over SW OKC right now, in my general area, and we're not seeing anything. I take it some of this stuff isn't reaching the ground?

WOW, KFOR's Mike Morgan thinks ice will be over an inch in parts of NW Oklahoma.

http://stillwaterweather.com/images/icestorm2017.jpg

^^ Yes NW OK will see a historical storm.

Main precipitation train is in its infancy down in NW TX. Slowly developing and lifting north.

http://i.imgur.com/25iXTpt.jpg

Road temps appear to be holding on a least a bit longer. Grass behind my house is icy, but the back patio and street in front of the house are still just wet (SW OKC)

It's been below freezing since yesterday in OKC so I would have to think streets are near freezing now.

It's been below freezing since yesterday in OKC so I would have to think streets are near freezing now. It looks to me like any meaningful freezing rain should be in OKC metro between 1-2:00 am. This is according to what the radar is showing.

Just checked some other future casts and they're all matching up with what anon and others have been posting. Looks like around 1-2 AM CT is when the first SIGNIFICANT boundary starts to actually take form and start pushing through the state.

I know there's a lot of ranches and farms, etc. out in the Western part of the state. Gonna be praying for them to make it through Sunday when it warms up.

For what its worth, the latest runs of the HRRR (hi-res model that runs hourly) have been initializing very poorly compared to what radar has had so far. That isn't to say the heavier stuff won't develop as forecast tonight, but it hasn't been doing amazingly well so far.

For what its worth, the latest runs of the HRRR (hi-res model that runs hourly) have been initializing very poorly compared to what radar has had so far. That isn't to say the heavier stuff won't develop as forecast tonight, but it hasn't been doing amazingly well so far.

Yup, it has been trash today - even the temps have been wrong.

Wondering if the NAM or GEM knows what is going on, but it, too has been somewhat spotty. The general idea is there from all the models, but placement is a big "probably..."

Looks like it's starting to crank up to the south now heading our way.

Really coming down in Lexington right now.

Looks at watch... Looks at radar...

https://media.giphy.com/media/YPIrsRqqO7oB2/giphy.gif

Fortunately, the ice storm isn't shaping up to be as bad as hyped. As of 3:24 am the NWS forecast for OKC said to expect ice accumulation of around .1" overnight and an additional accumulation of less than .1" before noon then rain showers.

The forecast is the same for Stillwater. In Stillwater, at 4:30 am with a temperature of around 30 after hours of light freezing rain, sometimes briefly moderate, the streets and sidewalks remain wet as before. Everything else is lightly coated with ice.

Yep, fortunately. The last future model I had checked basically had solid swaths across the state. I check this morning and it's still a broken up system more or less - very spotty.

Perhaps we dodged one here, although we still have later today to go through, I'm hoping we begin to thaw out without much accumulation.

About 1/16" of an inch here in NW OKC, with not a whole lot more to our SW.

I'd argue about the same in South Tulsa. Just iced enough to see covered on my bushes and trees. Just had a bout of light rain as well that lasted for probably 30 mins.

Weather channel forecast said the worst is yet to come and will be pushing into later today/tonight.

About 1/16" of an inch here in NW OKC, with not a whole lot more to our SW.

Yeah, obviously can't speak for anyone else, but this was a non-starter here for us in SW OKC. A bit of ice hanging off parked cars, some on trees/grass, but the roads simply never got worse than moist. And my son is already giving me the evil eye for *strongly* encouraging him to get off the roads before midnight last night..

While I realize some people did get some ice, and I know there was apparently a fatality accident on I-40, I don't think this entire event was anywhere near the scale that was projected or that the models showed. Can't help but wonder what kind of a "post-mortem" on this will arise on this...Was the moisture that fell through the surface freezing mass too warm at the upper levels to freeze as it fell? Was their less moisture than expected? Or did the models just get it wrong?

I guess the frustrating thing for me is that I talk to someone like my son, and he doesn't understand (or want to try) the complexities of winter forecasting, and from his perspective this thing was just another winter forecast bust. Even as someone who at least tries to understand and appreciate the difficulties with weather forecasting in general, it's hard for me to disagree...

This one was a pretty bad "swing and a miss." It has been a while since I've seen the weather forecasts miss the mark this badly.

I know that these weather models contain a lot of complex math with numerous input data that needs to properly be quantified for the models to work, so I understand the difficulty here. I also understand that these models are typically based in sound physics so theoretically, they shouldn't bomb this badly. What is missing then? Do we have a sampling problem where we aren't collecting enough data on the fly to properly feed these models to get better results? Rather, are we missing experiences meteorologists to properly interpret the model results? To me, it seems like all of our meteorologists at the moment are all fairly young professionals. I sure would have liked to see how somebody with Gary England's experience with these events would have forecasted this storm.

This one was a pretty bad "swing and a miss." It has been a while since I've seen the weather forecasts miss the mark this badly.

I know that these weather models contain a lot of complex math with numerous input data that needs to properly be quantified for the models to work, so I understand the difficulty here. I also understand that these models are typically based in sound physics so theoretically, they shouldn't bomb this badly. What is missing then? Do we have a sampling problem where we aren't collecting enough data on the fly to properly feed these models to get better results? Rather, are we missing experiences meteorologists to properly interpret the model results? To me, it seems like all of our meteorologists at the moment are all fairly young professionals. I sure would have liked to see how somebody with Gary England's experience with these events would have forecasted this storm.

My trick knee tells me that a lot of these younger mets are trained just to examine the models almost to the point of exclusivity, not to use them as a tool with all the other information that's out there and apply some critical thinking. I liken it very much to the apparent change in the way I think doctors are being trained, with the expectation that *everything* follows a simple flowchart/cookbook.

There's no better example of this to me in the way the school districts call classes for winter weather (or even severe weather). When I was in school, it took all-but an act of congress to close schools for winter weather. I remember driving to high school on days when the roads were stuffed with ice and snow and plenty of routes within neighborhoods would be what they deem "impassable" now. That's 100% flipped now.

I think if you asked someone of the previous generation like Gary England or perhaps Jim Williams (Ch 4), Rick Tasetano (KTOK), Gene Collett (also of KTOK) about how meteorology has changed, they'd probably give you a pretty interesting story (Yes, I realize some of those names are no longer with us, but my point is to illustrate the generational differences).

Part of me says you could probably find some older farmers in rural OK who could have given you a pretty darned good forecast in all this just by their own experience, instinct, and observation. That's probably the worst in what's been lost in how we train people to study the weather - it can't always been reduced to a cookbook.

My trick knee tells me that a lot of these younger mets are trained just to examine the models almost to the point of exclusivity, not to use them as a tool with all the other information that's out there and apply some critical thinking. I liken it very much to the apparent change in the way I think doctors are being trained, with the expectation that *everything* follows a simple flowchart/cookbook.

There's no better example of this to me in the way the school districts call classes for winter weather (or even severe weather). When I was in school, it took all-but an act of congress to close schools for winter weather. I remember driving to high school on days when the roads were stuffed with ice and snow and plenty of routes within neighborhoods would be what they deem "impassable" now. That's 100% flipped now.

I think if you asked someone of the previous generation like Gary England or perhaps Jim Williams (Ch 4), Rick Tasetano (KTOK), Gene Collett (also of KTOK) about how meteorology has changed, they'd probably give you a pretty interesting story (Yes, I realize some of those names are no longer with us, but my point is to illustrate the generational differences).

Part of me says you could probably find some older farmers in rural OK who could have given you a pretty darned good forecast in all this just by their own experience, instinct, and observation. That's probably the worst in what's been lost in how we train people to study the weather - it can't always been reduced to a cookbook.

Its an on-demand age we live in now. People want a 100 percent accurate forecast for next week now. The old timers didn't have to work with that kind of pressure in their day. They could get away with leaving the forecast kind of ambiguous because people had the habit of taking things day by day.

Now people say "You have x5000 super radar! You should be 100 percent right all the time!".