GFS is indicating warming trend today. If that holds, we could dodge a potential ice storm. The amount of moisture forecasted with this system isn't even real. I can't remember the last time a storm was to dig so far south it brings in true GOM moisture in January.

We will have to watch the models the next couple days, we are almost in the NAM window and will have a nice idea for this storm.

I think I will just plan on early grocery shopping this week for Wednesday. Can't hurt

GFS is indicating warming trend today. If that holds, we could dodge a potential ice storm. The amount of moisture forecasted with this system isn't even real. I can't remember the last time a storm was to dig so far south it brings in true GOM moisture in January.

We will have to watch the models the next couple days, we are almost in the NAM window and will have a nice idea for this storm.

Pardon if I'm being particularly dense: GOM?? Gulf of Mexico?

Pardon if I'm being particularly dense: GOM?? Gulf of Mexico?

Wondering the same. Thank you for asking! LOL

Pardon if I'm being particularly dense: GOM?? Gulf of Mexico?

Yes

Models are continuing the trend of warmer air. It looks like it could be a devastating ice storm for parts of N OK and up through Kansas City area.

For C OK, unless models start dramatically reversing, this will be a very cold rain. Up to 3 inches worth. It will be a good drought dampening rain, and help clean the salt/sand off of the roadways from last weekend.

I was watching the replay of News9's 10pm newscast last night this morning and David Payne had that freezing line south and east of the metro by at least 40 miles.

Of course, we all know the forecast will flip flop until 24 hours in advance. I'm all for rain so I hope you're correct, Anonymous!

I am surprised Payne is playing the ice storm card for C OK this early. It is a very risky forecast. The best suggestion is to keep up with the updates as we get new data every 6 hours with model runs.

48 hours ago on Sunday we were looking at doomsday across a large area of the plains. Now we are looking at maybe a narrow corridor somewhere across KS. Models are notorious to underestimate cold air at the surface, so this forecast needs to be watched every run. The track of the low is very important.

I am surprised Payne is playing the ice storm card for C OK this early. It is a very risky forecast. The best suggestion is to keep up with the updates as we get new data every 6 hours with model runs.

48 hours ago on Sunday we were looking at doomsday across a large area of the plains. Now we are looking at maybe a narrow corridor somewhere across KS. Models are notorious to underestimate cold air at the surface, so this forecast needs to be watched every run. The track of the low is very important.

Days/weeks like this that make you glad you're a meteorologist, right, Anon?? Do you have any hair left :) :) :)

I've often thought the only thing worse than tracking/forecasting severe weather in OK might actually be *winter* weather in OK, because it always seems to be this curious variety of roulette in that you know something's coming, it might be terrible, unless it isn't....

I'm holding out for the noon update (that is the next one for GFS, isn't it?)

The NWS will definitely be hairless by the end of this one if the freezing line doesn't do what the models are suggesting. Also just in case anyone is thinking they are misled, I am not a meteorologist by profession. You can call me an armchair meteorologist, or amateur met - but I only do this out of my fascination for weather and the science around it. I guess you could say this is like those "I Am Not A Lawyer, but..." posts.

Yes the GFS is beginning to load now, and the position of the low is changed from this morning already.

Yes the GFS is beginning to load now, and the position of the low is changed from this morning already.

Reading the NWS statements, they keeping noting the movement of GFS and relative consistency of the ECMWMF. I go back to one of their first statements - it'll be fascinating, from meteorological standpoint, to see how this plays out.

I am surprised Payne is playing the ice storm card for C OK this early. It is a very risky forecast. The best suggestion is to keep up with the updates as we get new data every 6 hours with model runs.


KOCO staff are also noting the "POTENTIAL" Ice Storm. Via Brad Sowder at 10:15 am:

"A significant ice storm could be brewing for Oklahoma, Friday through Sunday.
We are very confident on the precipitation, but precip. type...well.

It is all about the temperature, we may be able to get above freezing temperatures Sat. and Sun. but that is an unknown at this point.

For planning purposes, plan for an Ice Storm and hope for slightly warmer temperatures."

The NWS will definitely be hairless by the end of this one if the freezing line doesn't do what the models are suggesting. Also just in case anyone is thinking they are misled, I am not a meteorologist by profession. You can call me an armchair meteorologist, or amateur met - but I only do this out of my fascination for weather and the science around it. I guess you could say this is like those "I Am Not A Lawyer, but..." posts.

Yes the GFS is beginning to load now, and the position of the low is changed from this morning already.

Changed...how? he sez with bated breath :) :)

I want to wait for the 18Z [and probably the 00Z] loads before making any suggestions, but both NAM and GFS came in colder than earlier runs (after about 6 straight runs of warming). GFS has shifted the low's track north by about 30 miles. All of this will significantly impact the precipitation types.

I hope it snows a foot. No ice though

What would that mean if the Low moved 30 miles north for us?

The further the low travels to the north, the less cold air it is pulling down from the N and filtering it into OK.

18Z is the warmest it has been. We could even be near 60F on Saturday afternoon with heavy rain. The focus now will shift into late Thursday night into Friday where temperatures will be in the 28-33F range with freezing drizzle and freezing rain pockets developing. Travel problems won't be too likely, as the roads should hold the higher temperatures from the preceding days. NAM does indicate the I-44 corridor could be in the upper 20s all day Friday until around 9pm, when things begin warming up. Again, I feel elevated surfaces will be the main issue for any accumulation, then that will even eventually melt overnight heading into Saturday morning.

Moisture amounts will be in the 2-3" range, so a great drink for this dry winter.

Meteorologist Aaron Tuttle's Ice Storm Recap for Friday:

FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL DEVELOP BY 6AM FRIDAY MORNING TRANSITIONING INTO LIGHT FREEZING RAIN DURING THE DAY AS TEMPS REMAIN BELOW FREEZING ACROSS C AND W OK. THE FREEZING LINE EXTENDS FROM TULSA TO OKC TO LAWTON. SATURDAY TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING AND THE PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION BACK INTO RAIN ACROSS C OK. RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. TOTAL ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL VARY FROM 0.25 TO 1.0 INCH. ADDITIONAL RAIN TOTALS WILL TOP 2 TO 3 INCHES LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

In the NWS discussion this morning, their thinking was that the freezing line will bisect the metro area. I think the main roads will be fine regardless except for bridges and overpasses unless the freezing line drifts further south and we get a degree or two cooler.

In the NWS discussion this morning, their thinking was that the freezing line will bisect the metro area. I think the main roads will be fine regardless except for bridges and overpasses unless the freezing line drifts further south and we get a degree or two cooler.

I think that's the $64,000 question at this point, and the result is either a significant ice storm or just a cold rain. And I think the bottom line right now is that it's just impossible to call at this point. I've already made some changes for the rest of the week on the cautious notion that Friday could very easily go south. Not interested in playing the skating game.

Winter Storm Watch is out now until Sunday includes the Metro

WINTER STORM WATCH
Areas Affected:
Alfalfa - Beckham - Blaine - Caddo - Canadian - Cleveland - Comanche - Custer - Dewey - Ellis - Garfield - Grady - Grant - Greer - Harmon - Harper - Jackson - Kay - Kingfisher - Kiowa - Lincoln - Logan - Major - McClain - Noble - Oklahoma - Payne - Pottawatomie - Roger Mills - Wa****a - Woods - Woodward
Effective: Wed, 1/11 10:03am Updated: Wed, 1/11 10:38am Urgency: Future
Expires: Sun, 1/15 6:00am Severity: Moderate Certainty: Possible

Details:

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT.
* TIMING...EARLY FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY
* ICE ACCUMULATION...ICE ACCUMULATIONS OVER ONE-QUARTER
INCH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PART OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA
* WINDS...NORTH WIND 10 TO 15 MPH
* OTHER IMPACTS...ICE ACCUMULATIONS BY LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
MAY BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE POWER OUTAGES. BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES MAY
BECOME SLICK AND HAZARDOUS...ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY.


Information:

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
LATEST FORECASTS.

GFS trending slightly colder temperatures, especially for Saturday. It was trying to warm the C parts of the state up well above freezing, but now is getting on board with NAM in suggestions it may only get to around 36-40F.

Event will begin with freezing rain/drizzle from about Lawton-Norman-W Tulsa early Friday morning in little waves. Then overnight Friday into Saturday AM, heavy freezing rain moves into NW OK, and C OK should begin warming to above freezing. If the freezing line moves further south and is stronger at the surface than forecast, it could be significantly worse in C OK, so the NWS has left the WSWatch going until Saturday night.

How deep the cold air spills into OK on Thursday night will really determine what will happen. I would say right now that extreme NW OK and up into Central to Western KS can bet on a significant ice storm.

FWIW Oklahoma county ground temps are approaching the mid 50's

The newest NWS graphics bumps up ice amounts slightly for the metro with the freezing line solidly through the metro area Friday. The freezing line moves north Saturday.

My airline let me change to an earlier flight w/ no charge due to anticipated weather.

With the ground temps elevated, will that help with the freezing on the roads?

The cold air is rushing in from the north right now, it is right on schedule with models. OKC should see temperatures begin dropping dramatically around midnight then fall to around 27-29F by sunrise. During the day we should recover to around 45F then be back to freezing around 11pm Thursday night.

The roads should hold their warmth, however, if temperatures get low enough at the surface, roads will freeze anyways. If we are near 32F, bridges will likely be the only issue. If we slip down near 25-27F, things could be hairy on all roadways. Again, this entire event's severity is hinging on handfuls of degrees.

So if you have somewhere to be, just wake up early on Friday and check the weather for updates, if it is 24 degrees and raining, then prepare for a bad time.

Mike Morgan on KFOR just said that OKC will be in the area receiving the most ice.

Mike Morgan on KFOR just said that OKC will be in the area receiving the most ice.

Yes more of these folks are starting to call for major ice storm in OKC. I guess colder weather moving in. Also they are saying Thursday evening start time.

https://i.imgur.com/3hfgwIp.jpg

Need to wait for morning model runs, tonight's runs were all off in terms of current temperatures and front location.

That map posted above for Mike Morgan seems very flipped, unless he is expecting more sleet in NW OK (this would mean air is deeper, colder, and further south than anticipated by models). NW OK into KS could likely see a historical ice storm. It is also worth noting that his map is only ranging .25 to .75 of ice in his white region, which is significant, but not ridiculous by any means.

Need to wait for morning model runs, tonight's runs were all off in terms of current temperatures and front location.

That map posted above for Mike Morgan seems very flipped, unless he is expecting more sleet in NW OK (this would mean air is deeper, colder, and further south than anticipated by models). NW OK into KS could likely see a historical ice storm. It is also worth noting that his map is only ranging .25 to .75 of ice in his white region, which is significant, but not ridiculous by any means.

Jed Castles on Ch 9 this morning was saying that the air coming in was colder than the models had predicted, apparently by roughly 5 degrees, and possibly a bit further south, both of which tended to increase the ice potential. I also noted that the area of greatest potential on his maps had also moved perhaps 30-40 miles east and south. To give you an idea of how narrow this change is, and just how hard all of this is to call, the previous map had our immediate area *just* south and east of the higher impact area. Now we're in the middle of it. And given the variability of these models, a delta of 30-50 miles would seem to be well within the range of variability...

Jed Castles on Ch 9 this morning was saying that the air coming in was colder than the models had predicted, apparently by roughly 5 degrees, and possibly a bit further south, both of which tended to increase the ice potential. I also noted that the area of greatest potential on his maps had also moved perhaps 30-40 miles east and south. To give you an idea of how narrow this change is, and just how hard all of this is to call, the previous map had our immediate area *just* south and east of the higher impact area. Now we're in the middle of it. And given the variability of these models, a delta of 30-50 miles would seem to be well within the range of variability...

That's about right. At 15z/9 am local, the freezing line is a county or so (not a ton) further south and east of where f003 from the 12z runs has it and sfc temps are running between 3 and 5 deg F colder than f003 from 12z runs. It's important to note that we are progged to go well above freezing in central Oklahoma this afternoon, so just because we're colder than expected right now doesn't mean we will continue to be into tonight and early Friday morning.

Also, the trend in the forecast position of the 32f sfc isotherm has leveled out in the last 2-3 runs of some of the guidance. Unfortunately it is progged to sit right along the I-44 corridor (give or take tens of miles), which results in a situation for the OKC metro that is still basically "clear as mud", with the 32f line waffling across the metro Friday into Saturday midday.

KFOR even posted a "worst case scenario" map (though no such labeling was done on the graphic) that gave OKC 0.9" of ice. I see nothing in the data to support that currently, but props to him if he scores a coup on it. The temperatures are the big thing to watch, of course, but the increasingly cold trend on some of the models (NAM, SREF) has stopped and if anything the QPF -- though notoriously inaccurate -- has been decreasing some. I'm not really expecting OKC (downtown) to get more than 0.3" of ice, but I guess we'll see.

I watched Aaron Tuttle's broadcast from last night. I enjoy his take on things. But he mentioned something that I didn't consider: stay away from power lines and tall structures when the ice starts accumulating!

Hope everyone is prepared and stay safe all.

Even HRRR is running about 3-4F warmer than actuals. But like riflesforwatie said, tonight's temperatures is what really matters. It is interesting to see the nearly stalled out front down in SE OK right now, fighting as hard as it can against the warm air riding up against it.

It will also be important to monitor dewpoint and wetbulb overnight, as well as cloud cover thickness. A lot to watch as we head into tonight.

12Z GFS loading in as I post this, and it is coming in 2-3F colder than 06Z. We will have to see if this trend continues as it could suggest a longer time frame where accumulation would be feasible.

I watched Aaron Tuttle's broadcast from last night. I enjoy his take on things. But he mentioned something that I didn't consider: stay away from power lines and tall structures when the ice starts accumulating!

Hope everyone is prepared and stay safe all.

Good point about power lines and tall structures - when we lived in Chicagoland, everybody knew this and all the buildings had signs about falling ice/snow and you couldn't even walk past certain buildings sometimes, but here in OK, it's rarer and we have less tall bldgs, so folks might not think about it.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i6zaVYWLTkU

Likely to see conversions to Ice Storm Warnings soon for pretty much entire Norman NWS area.

Likely to see conversions to Ice Storm Warnings soon for pretty much entire Norman NWS area.

So conditions are degrading? Pretty much a guarantee for OKC then?

So conditions are degrading? Pretty much a guarantee for OKC then?

Looks like models are going with higher amount. Latest Tweet: https://twitter.com/NWSNorman/status/819646957798957056

ICE STORM WARNING (Oklahoma County not included, so far, but has freezing rain advisory. See map.)

Areas Affected:
Alfalfa - Blaine - Custer - Dewey - Ellis - Garfield - Grant - Harper - Kay - Kingfisher - Logan - Major - Noble - Payne - Roger Mills - Woods - Woodward
Effective: Thu, 1/12 2:56pm Updated: Thu, 1/12 3:04pm Urgency: Expected
Expires: Sun, 1/15 6:00am Severity: Moderate Certainty: Likely

Details:

...ICE STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM FRIDAY TO 6 AM CST
SUNDAY...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED AN ICE STORM
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM FRIDAY TO 6 AM CST SUNDAY.
THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.
* TIMING...EARLY FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY
* ICE ACCUMULATIONS...ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE-QUARTER TO ONE-
HALF INCH. THE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY.
* WINDS...NORTH WIND AROUND 10 MPH
* OTHER IMPACTS...ICE ACCUMULATIONS BY SATURDAY MAY BE ENOUGH TO
CAUSE POWER OUTAGES. BRIDGES... OVERPASSES... AND SECONDARY
ROADS MAY BECOME SLICK AND HAZARDOUS... ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY
INTO EARLY SATURDAY.

Information:

BE CAREFUL IF YOU HAVE TO TRAVEL. EVEN SMALL AMOUNTS OF ICE CAN MAKE
ROADS AND SIDEWALKS SLICK.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C1_8eo5VQAEmHVR.jpg:large

Here is the full state with ice advisories. This map will refresh as it is live.

http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/noaa/wwa/maps/realtime/latest.oklahoma.snowice.gif

I think the distribution is perfect, the borderline counties in pink, the nearly guaranteed counties in purple.

Looks like some of the metro school districts are already calling tomorrow. Mid-Del and Western Heights already closed. Moore superintendent sent out a tweet indicating they'll make a decision soon.

I think the distribution is perfect, the borderline counties in pink, the nearly guaranteed counties in purple.


They both look purple to me lol

Just curious, what amount of accumulation of ice did we have with the Thanksgiving weekend 2015 ice storm? Tree damage with that storm seemed to have been exacerbated by all of the foliage still left on limbs, so hopefully having most limbs bare at this point in the year will spare some damage this time around. This will only be my second or third ice storm, so I don't have a lot to go on.

By some very bad planning on my part, I had to go pick something up at the WM Neighborhood Market at 23rd & Penn and it looked like people were stocking up for World War III.

Looks like we may be getting more of the "worst case scenario" with this.
Checked a lunch update and one model had this whole system moving South and East about 30 miles encompassing a larger area impacted by ice.

Prep now if you haven't already:

Candles, matches, blankets, water, food, shovels, sand, salt, etc.

I grocery shopped on Monday so we're set for the entire weekend. I don't envy anyone getting out now. Pete confirmed what will be going on at every grocery store.

And for the love of God, don't be stupid and again, stay aware and stay safe.

OKCPS has cancelled classes for Friday. No surprise but I'm glad to see they did it proactively instead of at the last minute.

Stay safe everyone. Hoping for no power outages and safe roads for all. Glad I went to the store a few days ago.

Here's what TWC showed at 16:00 today, sorry for the poor quality, it's a pic of the TV screen (there's no actual blue on there, it's all purple (ice)).

13427

Just curious, what amount of accumulation of ice did we have with the Thanksgiving weekend 2015 ice storm? Tree damage with that storm seemed to have been exacerbated by all of the foliage still left on limbs, so hopefully having most limbs bare at this point in the year will spare some damage this time around. This will only be my second or third ice storm, so I don't have a lot to go on.From what I remember being on the tree limbs I was trying to save I would estimate about a half inch.

They both look purple to me lol

Yes, you are right sorry! Light purple is on border and dark is the nearly guaranteed!

Just curious, what amount of accumulation of ice did we have with the Thanksgiving weekend 2015 ice storm? Tree damage with that storm seemed to have been exacerbated by all of the foliage still left on limbs, so hopefully having most limbs bare at this point in the year will spare some damage this time around. This will only be my second or third ice storm, so I don't have a lot to go on.

We had about 2/3" here around NW 50th and Portland. But you're right, the trees still had their foliage which almost certainly worsened it.

Some of the high-res models are now painting some very high totals across OKC by mid-day tomorrow, but the forecast precipitation is just very spotty convection that will be impossible to predict in advance. Definitely something to keep an eye on. Otherwise, going by the latest official forecasts for about 1/4", with many models giving less, I think many are overreacting in OKC (NW OK is a different story). With the convective nature of the precip there may be some isolated areas that get much heavier amounts but I don't imagine they'll be widespread. Roads will be bad tomorrow but should be okay again by Saturday. I personally don't see the need for totally cleared bread shelves. We'll see if I change my story by tomorrow morning lol.

I've noticed there has been very little national news coverage over this storm.
Usually a couple days before I see stories here and there about how such and such part of the country is bracing for severe weather.
Not so much this time. Not that I care, but it is something I noticed.

And one of out local news meteorologists was showing Tulsa will be just outside that major freezing line. He said to the North and West - you folks won't be as lucky.

Here we are just a few hours away from something major or minor happening in OKC and no one really knows for sure. I hear reports of heavy ice and then hear reports of a light glaze in OKC.

Well the grocery store I work at officially has sold more groceries today than we did before Thanksgiving http://www.sdubz.com/forums/styles/smilies/smilies/happysad.gif

We're loaded on food and meat from the farm but had to make one more run and grabbed the last pack of Cold Snap so ready to go.

I've noticed there has been very little national news coverage over this storm.
Usually a couple days before I see stories here and there about how such and such part of the country is bracing for severe weather.
Not so much this time. Not that I care, but it is something I noticed.

And one of out local news meteorologists was showing Tulsa will be just outside that major freezing line. He said to the North and West - you folks won't be as lucky.

I saw old Al Roker this morning and someone on ABC....talking about it on every cut in.......

I saw old Al Roker this morning and someone on ABC....talking about it on every cut in.......

Was he skinny Al or Big Al ? Seriously though, I have also heard the national media talking about storm Juniper all week.