Final weather month thread for the year!

After the rainy weekend, we will now experience the backside of the storm with cold air filtering down. Highs Tuesday will be in the lower 40s, and Wednesday and Friday will not make it out of the 30s. Thursday may struggle to make freezing.

As for precipitation, we may see some rain/snow showers develop Tuesday evening and expand during the day Wednesday across the state. Moisture looks limited at this time. As for impacts, the event will likely not be significant. However, bridges could become slick due to the extended period of cold temperatures. Best chances at this time, appear to be in NW and N OK for any light accumulations.


Our next storm comes in around the back half of the weekend.

Front is diving south now with the reinforced cold air.

Short range models are developing light snow showers and flurries from Tulsa to OKC this evening.

Never had any moisture here in Piedmont yesterday. About 19F this morning. Looking at the extended models (European, Canadian and JMA) .. I believe after about the 21st, we will at least temporarily, pull out of this chilly streak. I am expecting a mild Christmas this year and of course.. dry. Could be a resurgence of arctic air masses that may graze our area towards the end of the month, but I have my doubts on this currently. The JMA model (From Japan) hints at a mild January with very little precip. I wouldn't be surprised if this at least somewhat verifies but one cannot ignore the current pattern with an abundant snow pack expected by the week leading up to Christmas north of I-70. That alone will prevent those arctic/Canadian air masses from modifying as much as they normally would. This all bares watching. I am more confident overall of a cooler winter than last year, but moderately below normal moisture is a more confident bet. Glad to see the weather thread on here is a viable one.

Edit: Just saw the most recent update of the GFS model. This suggests not only another arctic plunge just before Christmas, but maybe a snow/ice event too! Well now, lets see how this evolves.. keep in mind that most any computer model projecting conditions out this far is only speculation at best.

All I ask for this Christmas is a Snow and Ice free winter :)

Personally, I love it when it snows, and I'm really hoping for at least one good snowfall event this year. A white Christmas would be fantastic. Ice, on the other hand... Gorgeous - but no thanks, I'll pass on that.

All I ask for this Christmas is a Snow and Ice free winter :)
AMEN brother!!!!!

all i ask for this christmas is a snow and ice free winter :)
ditto!

All I ask for this Christmas is a Snow and Ice free winter :)

So you want the drought to worsen......gotcha.

Personally, I love it when it snows, and I'm really hoping for at least one good snowfall event this year. A white Christmas would be fantastic. Ice, on the other hand... Gorgeous - but no thanks, I'll pass on that.
i couldn't agree more!

So you want the drought to worsen......gotcha.
It can precipitate all it wants as long as it's above freezing.

So you want the drought to worsen......gotcha.

Better forms of drought busting precipitation than snow and ice.

Warming up headed through the weekend. We will be hitting highs in the 50s again by Sunday and Monday. Slight chance of rain Sunday, best chances eastern parts of the state. Then more cold air begins filtering back down during the work week. Next system in line will be impacting us around Wednesday and Thursday. Very active pattern to remain in place for a while. We will have to take each storm one-at-a-time.

Both the European and GFS models depicting a more active pattern as what Anonymous eluded to. Chances may be growing for a wetter (icier and snowier?) pattern to develop. Chances for a white Christmas may be growing now. I still believe at some point towards the New Year that we'll gradually get out of this cold pattern; at least temporarily, but as I mentioned in my previous post, with such a snow pack building to our north.. any air masses coming out of Canada and the Arctic will only modify somewhat. For those of you who remember the winter of '83-'84.. this has some ominous similarities, except ocean temperatures throughout the northern hemisphere are averaging a couple of degrees warmer than those years, so I don't see quite the severity of that winter.. but it will be surely colder than the last few winters. This is getting exciting folks!! Stay warm and safe.

Allusions to '83-'84 would be one thing, but I'm looking out for allusions to something more like '77. I was in the 8th grade then and we had the most amazing run of December winter storms I could remember. Wave after wave of huge snowstorms piled close to a *foot* of snow in central OK. For the better part of a week, maybe two, we were showing up at school an hour late and basically waiting an hour or two to get right back on the buses to go home. We ended up having to make up a snow day on a Saturday...

Of course, The Christmas Eve Blizzard of '09 will stand on its own for a long time......(hopefully).

^

I remember the winter of 77/78 because I was a senior in HS and driving to and from school every day and remember the constant scraping of my car and having to navigate through the mess as a 17 year old.

Seem to recall it being bitter cold as well.

I want to wait another day or so before any detailing on the upcoming storm that is setting up to hit around this coming weekend.

Right now it appears there is a good chance of a major winterstorm somewhere across the middle of the US. We are still 5-6 days out, so fine-tuning is just a guess at this point. We need to get into the NAM window before giving credit to some of the GFS doomsday runs.

^

I remember the winter of 77/78 because I was a senior in HS and driving to and from school every day and remember the constant scraping of my car and having to navigate through the mess as a 17 year old.

Seem to recall it being bitter cold as well.

I remember the snowfall and thickness of the blanket to be so pervasive that it actually hurt your eyes just to look across the horizon, even around nearby building, because everything was so incredibly *white*. Even the gray, overcast skies reflected more white/gray white and seemingly intensified the groundcover.

Good God you guys are scaring me! We're deep into a major exterior paint project that's behind schedule already. Sorry to those who are hoping for the big snow, but I hope it doesn't happen!

Most sites I looked over this morning have a cold but pretty bland forecast for OKC this weekend.

The past few runs of the GFS have been consistent in showing one of our more extreme cold fronts we get every once in a while, with temperatures in the low 70s saturday afternoon and down to ~10F with windchills of -5 to -10 by Sunday morning. Pretty insane drop. Other models suggest the front coming through sooner which wouldn't allow for such a high temperature on Saturday, but either way looks pretty dramatic.

Yes, very powerful system. This is one where the poor Californians have to actually experience bad weather. Could be some flooding over there.

The impacts on OK will be determined by the strength of the high pressure over the eastern side of the US. If the pressure can hold its ground, the storm system will be pushed further south.

At this time, it appears the storm will shove the high pressure aside and just cut right through the country, leaving heavy snow from the plains to the upper MS valley, and heavy storms in the southeast. On the backside of this system, in conjunction with a snowpack in its wake - we will have some extreme temperatures left behind here in OK.

Just a heads up.. Keeping a close eye on what may be a developing ice storm for Oklahoma next Tue/Wed. Trending that direction but still early.

Thanks for thr updates everyone. I check here for the serious business.

Friday will be mild with strong winds. Critical fire danger.

Early Saturday morning the front blasts through. Snow develops on the backside of the front. NAM and GFS both agree that it will be broken bands of snow, nothing too organized. Perhaps a moderate to heavy band of snow setting up somewhere, but it will be very localized.

0-1.5" depending on if you are under a snowband or not.


The next system will impact the state on Wednesday/Thursday, precipitation type will depend on temperature recovery from this first storm. After that, temperature recovery may depend on snowpack to the north and how quickly the cold air is shoved back north or not.

I feel like it is early in winter for an ice storm. I'll keep my eyes here for next week,

I feel like it is early in winter for an ice storm. I'll keep my eyes here for next week,

Remember last year we had that bad ice storm right after Thanksgiving.

Then, the day after Christmas we had another light round.

And that proved to be all the frozen precip we had all season.

Greetings everyone! Was out of town for a few days and didn't have my password to gain entry to this site.. :p , Looked at some data; specifically the EURO, GFS and JMA runs.. while it's plain to see the upcoming arctic siege starting Saturday (and what a sudden plunge it will be from Friday to Saturday!!).. I'm now quite confident that maybe my initial forecast from earlier last week may come to pass, in that our taste of real winter will pretty much be over by just after Christmas as we settle into a milder pattern by then. Models do still indicate some sort of feature that could.. possibly (hopefully?) give us a snow event around Christmas Eve but, just how much polar air to our north gets ingested into this system remains to be seen.. and that's even if this projected storm system comes to pass. Then... the milder pattern I believe will kick in.

Being I'm a big fan of the European model who's skill scores still out weigh the GFS.. I'm inclined to cautiously trust it's long range runs suggesting subnormal temperatures and potentially stormier conditions in the western continental US (roughly from I-25 on west) and milder weather in the east; which includes Oklahoma. Currently.. I believe we will ring in the New Year on a mild note, with average highs in the 50's, maybe into the 60's at times and lows between 30-40 range. I still don't see much in the way of any substantial moisture during this time. However, with what seems to be an overall western trough/eastern ridge that the models are predicting.. I will be watching for storm systems coming out of the Rockies as we close out the year and into January. What storm systems do form in this pattern, the speed and depth of these will dictate the chances of any meaningful rainfall; and maybe snow/ice if enough colder air gets mixed in.

In the longer term, I still believe overall, we will have more milder days than colder ones. Drought conditions I expect will persist and worsen over time thru the winter. I do expect though at some point, a reloading of arctic air over northern Canada that could infiltrate the lower 48, maybe as soon as the middle or late January. I am to a degree a fan of statistical analogues (similar patterns in years passed).. and if these pan out, I'm looking for what could be some healthy shots of arctic air masses in February and March. For me, being a big fan of anything resembling winter; I'm hoping Oklahoma will be included in this, but of course, all of this is pure speculation now. For now.. what will be coming down the pike will likely be the coldest temperatures of this winter season. I'll keep you posted and I really appreciate all who contribute to this forum and this weather thread in particular.

Looking at the newest GFS run.. I'm growing cautiously optimistic that parts of Oklahoma MAY have a white Christmas as a system coming thru on Christmas Eve will be working with the left overs from the arctic air mass that we'll be dealing with. Below is a link to Pivotal Weather. Hopefully it's okay to share links on here.

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat&rh=2016121512&fh=216&r=conus&dpdt=

The link above is time sensitive. This is a great site for model data and is for those with at least some meteorological understanding.

I am curious if the forecasted high temps for Friday, Dec 16th will actually occur.

I am curious if the forecasted high temps for Friday, Dec 16th will actually occur.

Brett, I'm somewhat questioning this myself. Based on the short term models (Hi Res 4km NAM in particular) I think the cloud cover that may be present will limit temps. to near 60F at best in the OKC area. Further west where more sun is likely, I can easily see close to 70F. Woodward is forecasted to be near 72 which is not out of question. The front which will barrel through during the predawn hours on Saturday will be an epic event for the sudden drop in temperatures. Upon frontal passage, temperatures will plummet nearly 20 degrees in merely an hours time with progressively colder temps. as the day progresses. We could be as low as 20F; maybe lower by sundown Saturday.. a 40 degree+ plunge in a 24 hour period. Such temperature changes from arctic plunges while certainly not unheard of, is still quite a remarkable change.

Just wanted to say thanks again to the contributors here. I don't post on the weather threads often but I come here for detailed analysis and forecasts that the typical weather station simply doesn't provide.

Brett, I'm somewhat questioning this myself. Based on the short term models (Hi Res 4km NAM in particular) I think the cloud cover that may be present will limit temps. to near 60F at best in the OKC area. Further west where more sun is likely, I can easily see close to 70F. Woodward is forecasted to be near 72 which is not out of question. The front which will barrel through during the predawn hours on Saturday will be an epic event for the sudden drop in temperatures. Upon frontal passage, temperatures will plummet nearly 20 degrees in merely an hours time with progressively colder temps. as the day progresses. We could be as low as 20F; maybe lower by sundown Saturday.. a 40 degree+ plunge in a 24 hour period. Such temperature changes from arctic plunges while certainly not unheard of, is still quite a remarkable change.

i remembered hearing about this a while back:
On November 11, 1911 (remembered easily for now as "11/11/11"), the afternoon temperature in Oklahoma City reached a record high for the date of 83, before plunging 66 degrees to a record low of 17 at midnight that evening. Both daily temperature records remain unbroken and untied since 1911.

Does anyone have any recommended youtube videos to start learning the basics?

http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/noaa/wwa/maps/realtime/latest.oklahoma.winter.gif

Winter Weather Advisory for C and N OK. Freezing drizzle impacting [mostly] bridges.

(removed because Pete already said the same thing before I got to his post)

(removed because Pete already said the same thing before I got to his post)

Seems like a bad situation around the metro with this unexpected ice event. Roommate almost got mowed down on 152 leaving Mustang with an accident right behind him.

https://scontent-dft4-2.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-0/s480x480/15492572_10154338557899200_305265156519282069_n.jp g?oh=6468e024daff9517eb0d17e9082fe190&oe=58B8D121

Does anyone have any recommended youtube videos to start learning the basics?

These are not video's but this is the best site to get a good foundation about weather in general. The topics covered are too numerous to mention.. it's all there. You'll find this to be most informative.

http://www.theweatherprediction.com

Text version:

Winter Weather Advisory
Updated: Fri Dec-16-16 03:16am CST
Effective: Fri Dec-16-16 03:16am CST
Expires: Sun Dec-18-16 07:00am CST

Severity: Minor
Urgency: Expected
Certainty: Likely

Status: Actual
Type: Alert
Category: Met
Areas affected: Beckham; Caddo; Canadian; Cleveland; Comanche; Custer; Dewey; Ellis; Garvin; Grady; Greer; Harmon; Harper; Jackson; Kiowa; Lincoln; Logan; McClain; Oklahoma; Payne; Pottawatomie; Roger Mills; Stephens; Tillman; Wa****a; Woodward

Instructions: A winter weather advisory means that periods of snow...sleet...or freezing rain will cause travel difficulties. Be prepared for slippery roads and limited visibilities. Even small amounts of ice and snow can make roads and sidewalks slick and dangerous.

Message summary: ...winter weather advisory in effect from 6 am saturday to 7 am cst sunday...
The national weather service in norman has issued a winter weather advisory for snow... Blowing snow... Sleet... And dangerous wind chills...which is in effect from 6 am saturday to 7 am cst sunday.
* timing...snow will develop late saturday morning across northwest oklahoma... And then spread east and southward into northern and central oklahoma before sunset. Wind chill values will drop to 5 degrees below zero across northwest oklahoma by saturday afternoon... And continue to fall across the rest of the region through early sunday morning. Most of the precipitation will end before midnight sunday.
* impacts...slick roads and blowing snow will result in hazardous driving conditions. If you have to travel... Slow down and increase the distance between you and other vehicles.
* snow and sleet accumulations...1 to 3 inches.
* wind chill values...5 to 15 degrees below zero.

These are not video's but this is the best site to get a good foundation about weather in general. The topics covered are too numerous to mention.. it's all there. You'll find this to be most informative.

http://www.theweatherprediction.com


Thanks!

Winter Weather Advisory from Saturday AM to Sunday AM.

Basic rundown for OKC is cold and windy all day Saturday. Snow showers moving in mostly late afternoon and evening. Models do suggest a heavier band of snow setting up somewhere running from SW to NE. Current placement is near Woodward. This band could get in a 2-4" range. Otherwise, everyone else will get zero to about an inch. Will have to monitor radar trends and band development for localized heavier amounts. All about the bands tomorrow!

That Christmas Day projection off the GFS looks really...interesting... at this point. Waay too early to get too worked up over it either way, but I think its been consistent at putting some type of winter precip in the state next weekend. Definitely bears watching!!!

If it does snow on Saturday, wouldn't the ground temperatures be too warm for anything to stick considering it's going to be in the 60's today?

one of the tv mets said last night it'd be a dry fluffy snow that would mainly be blowing around, not sticking too much. of course, we all know our winter weather - wait until it starts happening then you will know what's going on ;–)

If it does snow on Saturday, wouldn't the ground temperatures be too warm for anything to stick considering it's going to be in the 60's today?

With only a one day reprieve, I doubt it will have that much of a difference. Current projections, maybe an inch in the OKC area. Haven't looked at much data today and currently involved in other matters.. I'll try to post something in a bit.

This is crazy!! As of 4pm, it is 80F in Altus, mid 70's across NW Okla. Near 70 here at my house about 5 miles NW of Piedmont, yet still barely 60 in OKC. T-minus 12 hours to weather whiplash!! and a whiplash it will be. Below is the map of current conditions from the Oklahoma mesonet.

http://www.mesonet.org/index.php/weather/map/current_conditions

I don't like winter weather. I especially don't like freezing drizzle with accumulating ice on tree branches and power lines. I am familiar with the old saying: "Everyone talks about the weather but nobody does anything about it." This is one reason I love Oklahoma: If you don't like the weather, wait a minute and it will change. I think Will Rogers once remarked on that remarkable fact. (in the pre-frakkn' wastewater earthquake phase of the geology and etc.) =~)

I drove from my work near the airport at around 2pm today and the clouds were just breaking, it was about 59°, then around I240 and I44 I got back into the clouds, they were thick again around Tinker and it was 48°, thick and cloudy at Henrietta. South of Sallisaw, it is 42° now and it's suppose to get to 57° at noon tomorrow. Will be driving back on Sunday into much colder temps!

Honestly almost every place that exists has the same saying "if you don't like the weather just stay a minute".

That is because the entire country experiences the same storm systems. It is literally a giant counter-clockwise spinning low pressure center of air. Of course it is going to pull warm air north ahead of it and then push cold air south behind it.

The below map is the warm temperatures from Friday night:
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2016121700/namconus_T2m_us_1.png

And here is the forecasted temperatures for Saturday night:
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2016121700/namconus_T2m_us_35.png


The same conversation of extreme weather change will be occurring across like 70% of the US's population. And it's all because of the same powerful storm system.

Those two temperature maps makes me wish I was still living in St Petersburg.

Snow band is establishing now out west. It will slowly move east throughout the day. Impacting the main parts of OK this evening.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2016121714/hrrr_ref_frzn_us_9.png

Temp. is 21F and dropping here in Piedmont as of 12:26pm. I have a question. How can you post images on this board? I was wanting to post the image from the mesonet yesterday but could only provide the link. I'm not very tech savvy, but know just enough to be dangerous when it comes to my Mac.. :p

This is a test to see if this works. Current conditions as of 12:15pm
http://www.mesonet.org/index.php/weather/map/current_conditions

You can't post still images from mesonet without saving them to a third party site somewhere. But you can link directly to the image that they are hosting, but it will update live.

Light snow in far NW OKC.

Blowing snow down town

For other states, change the two letter all cap state name in this URL: http://www.weather.gov/images/erh/gis/OK_state_Snow.png
http://www.weather.gov/images/erh/gis/OK_state_Snow.png

So it looks like there is a decent chance of a white christmas this year according the current forecast... but it looks like we'll have to see exactly where the temperature lands.

Current GFS forecast for Christmas Day. This has been astonishingly consistent, btw.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016121800/gfs_asnow_us_40.png

Current GFS forecast for Christmas Day. This has been astonishingly consistent, btw.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016121800/gfs_asnow_us_40.png

Ummmm, I'm all for that if it's nothing but fluffy!

Last few GFS runs since the doomsday update have all moved the storm substantially north - giving OK a rainy Christmas.