Went ahead and started new thread for the next two months as nothing too exciting happens around this time.

Rain chances increase later this evening and overnight. Then another good chance tomorrow afternoon-evening. Friday looks like the best chance and heaviest rainfall, likely to occur in the evening and overnight.

Went ahead and started new thread for the next two months as nothing too exciting happens around this time.

Rain chances increase later this evening and overnight. Then another good chance tomorrow afternoon-evening. Friday looks like the best chance and heaviest rainfall, likely to occur in the evening and overnight.


disagree, fall starts :)

Really good shot at rain and storms across pretty much entire state tonight. The timing puts it in OKC around midnight, but that may end up being later. It will come out of the NW and slide S and E.

Looking ahead, temps looks to only get into the 80s beginning around Tuesday, with chances of rain daily while we are involved in a stalled boundary.

Looking like an unsettled pattern Wednesday-Saturday!

Holy cats and dogs, just got an inch of rain at my house in about 15 minutes.

Holy cats and dogs, just got an inch of rain at my house in about 15 minutes.

Mine too! Monsoon! :D

Storms continue to pop up. Evolving cluster just SW of OKC, looks like it will impact the metro here in the next hour. Look for flooding rains to be the main threat, maybe some 40mph winds if the line firms up.

I got a little bit of hail in that last cell and some pretty good winds.

I got a little bit of hail in that last cell and some pretty good winds.

When the storm hit campus it was chaos. It was like no one had ever been in a storm before.

Drove shortly after the storm and there were numerous fence panels down in the S Moore area. Got some lovely wind and a couple inches of rain down there.

Powerful storm system moves across the US this weekend. Bringing waves of rain and storms to OK on Saturday afternoon thru the overnight. There is some hinting at tropical development on the tail-end of this storm system just off the coast of TX next week.

Powerful storm system moves across the US this weekend. Bringing waves of rain and storms to OK on Saturday afternoon thru the overnight. There is some hinting at tropical development on the tail-end of this storm system just off the coast of TX next week.
Wow, the weather lady, Emily Sutton, at KFOR-4, Oklahoma City shows off weather model showing a very rainy weekend in Oklahoma thru 1pm Tues., especially in central areas of the state. If the approaching cold front stalls out for a while as forecast, the more the model will be accurate. It will be followed by the first cool spell of the fall with lows in the 50s.

http://stillwaterweather.com/images/modelrain.jpg

Any thoughts on this and the impact it might have on Oklahoma's weather ?


A Strange Thing Happened in the Stratosphere
High above Earth’s tropics, a pattern of winds changed recently in a way that scientists had never seen in more than 60 years of consistent measurements.

This disruption to the wind pattern – called the “quasi-biennial oscillation” – did not have any immediate impact on weather or climate as we experience it on Earth’s surface. But it does raise interesting questions for the NASA scientists who observed it: If a pattern holds for six decades and then suddenly changes, what caused that to happen? Will it happen again? What effects might it have?

“The quasi-biennial oscillation is the stratosphere’s Old Faithful,” said Paul Newman, Chief Scientist for Earth Sciences at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland, and lead author on a new paper about the event published online in Geophysical Research Letters. “If Old Faithful stopped for a day, you’d begin to wonder about what was happening under the ground.”

Wow, the weather lady, Emily Sutton, at KFOR-4, Oklahoma City shows off weather model showing a very rainy weekend in Oklahoma thru 1pm Tues., especially in central areas of the state. If the approaching cold front stalls out for a while as forecast, the more the model will be accurate. It will be followed by the first cool spell of the fall with lows in the 50s.

http://stillwaterweather.com/images/modelrain.jpg

Missed this one by a country mile.

Not even an inch at my house.

Yep I'm a bit disappointed, everyone was basically calling for torrential rain in central OK, the NWS Norman had started to really put the brakes on early yesterday morning, dropping to I think about a 2" prediction for the area but yeah I was really hoping for a good wash out in the area. I've been missing the rain that much!

Missed this one by a country mile.

Not even an inch at my house.

I agree, this forecast was a big bust. Im in Midwest City and my rain gauge shows .41 inches of rain. If im not mistaken there was suppose to be waves of heavy rain starting Saturday afternoon and ending sometime Sunday. Well it was a light rain and it didnt start til midnight and was pretty much done in a couple hours

Models were too bullish on amounts. And the placement was a crapshoot, but I would have favored SW OK and NW TX for sure. I am not sure what model Emily above used, but it was likely not a consistent result run to run and was low-confidence.

This entire week looks beautiful. Next precip. chances move in sometime after the weekend, as it looks now.

Models were too bullish on amounts. And the placement was a crapshoot, but I would have favored SW OK and NW TX for sure. I am not sure what model Emily above used, but it was likely not a consistent result run to run and was low-confidence.

This entire week looks beautiful. Next precip. chances move in sometime after the weekend, as it looks now.

You were right about SW OK/NW TX though. Wichita Falls picked up 5.5" plus...

It is disgustingly gorgeous outside this afternoon, despite being a bit windy. Holy cow. More of this, please!

Seeing some random thoughts from armchair Mets on Twitter and Facebook that Tuesday is turning into a slightly interesting setup in so far as it's a decently powerful system for this type of year mainly in the wind department.

Seeing some random thoughts from armchair Mets on Twitter and Facebook that Tuesday is turning into a slightly interesting setup in so far as it's a decently powerful system for this type of year mainly in the wind department.

SPC has put out a 15% hatched region for Day 5 (Tuesday) that runs just west of Wichita Falls through western OK and the eastern Texas panhandle north through western Kansas. I think it's a *little* unusual for them to put *any* kind of a region out that far in advance, so that tells me they're at least watching how things evolve here over the next few days.

I did hear Lacey Swope on Ch 9 yesterday saying that some of the models were pushing the stronger storms farther north into Kansas and leaving OK with more of a heavy rain/wind event, but it was still too far out to make anything that concrete. The basic structure of a dryline in the west in advance of a warmer airmass was likely to be in place, but return moisture was an unknown in the mix at this point.

And, of course, it bears repeating this is roughly the time of the secondary fall severe weather season, so this isn't totally out of the ordinary for October.

Interesting to see how it unfolds. After this clears out, the rest of the week looks fabulous - sunny and in the high 70's the rest of the week and into the weekend. As in *wow*.

Hurricane Matthew is turning into a beast!

https://i.imgur.com/CuCu08A.gif

Still two days out as well.

Yeah I think moisture return is going to be the X factor for this. Big deep storm setup. Need to keep eyeballs peeled on this....

Most of this will end up being in NW/NC Oklahoma and more so on up into Kansas and Nebraska only a few storms here in Oklahoma mainly North of OKC area as it stands now.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

Enhanced region has crept slightly north but in the same general area. Discussion from SPC seems to generally suggest basic, best region for severe weather focuses in KS, basically due to surface dewpoints, basic ingredients, but definitely includes possibility of supercells forming farther south into west-central OK.

Wow, the weather lady, Emily Sutton, at KFOR-4, Oklahoma City shows off weather model showing a very rainy weekend in Oklahoma thru 1pm Tues., especially in central areas of the state. If the approaching cold front stalls out for a while as forecast, the more the model will be accurate. It will be followed by the first cool spell of the fall with lows in the 50s.

http://stillwaterweather.com/images/modelrain.jpg

As Mesomap shows while it rained all over Oklahoma shortly before Sept. ended, many of the amounts fell well short of what was projected. However, some places did get more rain that expected, if not close to it.

http://stillwaterweather.com/images/rainsept25.png

Is it just me, or is there seemingly a trend that these models sometimes *greatly* overestimate rainfall amounts? Seems like the instance illustrated above isn't unique, eg forecast for large, broad amounts of rainfall, only to pan out to quite a bit less.? Or am I just having a selective bias?

Most of this will end up being in NW/NC Oklahoma and more so on up into Kansas and Nebraska only a few storms here in Oklahoma mainly North of OKC area as it stands now.

Interesting how the weather systems have favored western Oklahoma with so much rain this year that it has been kept clear of any kind of drought now:

http://stillwaterweather.com/images/drought2016.png

Is it just me, or is there seemingly a trend that these models sometimes *greatly* overestimate rainfall amounts? Seems like the instance illustrated above isn't unique, eg forecast for large, broad amounts of rainfall, only to pan out to quite a bit less.? Or am I just having a selective bias?

No you are definitely right. I think what is happening, is the models are becoming so good - that they are literally projecting precipitation amounts per storm clusters that it thinks will develop. What I see today is that models suggest long-term evolution of storms in a corridor where it forecasts where storms develop. The issue is models think multiple waves of storms will develop in this corridor, but sometimes the initial development sucks up all the energy or its outflow boundaries disrupt additional development that would have otherwise occurred nearby. This type of scenario is basically impossible for the models to forecast, because it is random and depends on so many live factors, when the models just have a snapshot of time of current atmosphere properties.

Hopefully that wasn't too confusing. I will post about Tuesday in the morning.

No anon that made sense. The models are extrapolating based on a linear or minimally predictable behavior expectation, but that expectation isn't reliable, it's random, less dense, thus inherently leading to high prediction rates.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1300.gif?1475589896562

Enhanced risk area moved almost entirely to the OK/KS border, with the narrative suggesting insufficient convergence for a broader area of severe development in Oklahoma. That's just a way of saying the ingredients at the surface just aren't favorable for large-scale, organized storm development. The ingredients are there for *isolated* storms, and that's why they've retained the "slight" (yellow) hatched region for the area.

Sounds to me like its going to be one of those hit-or-miss events: if you're under it, it'll be loud, rainy, possibly a hailer, and *maybe* (emphasize **maybe**) even risk dropping a weak tornado, but if you're not right under it, you'll be cursing the weather folks for missing the forecast again :)

For our weather guys... Is the hurricane doing to hit Florida? I'm supposed to be in Orlando on Saturday.

For our weather guys... Is the hurricane doing to hit Florida? I'm supposed to be in Orlando on Saturday.

It's going to come to close for comfort. The entire eastern half of Florida falls within the cone of uncertainty. The chances of tropical storm conditions are high right now. Hopefully the hurricane winds stay offshore.

Aaron tuttles meteorologist facebook page he has okc listed as center of activity smh I hope he is wrong but he is acting like okc is in the dead center of the severe weather tornado threat

News 9 went from northern OK for enhanced risk to a split zone including just west of the metro and northern OK.

Aaron tuttles meteorologist facebook page he has okc listed as center of activity smh I hope he is wrong but he is acting like okc is in the dead center of the severe weather tornado threat

Yeah it's just Tuttle being Hysterical Weather Guy because a few of the high-res models were forecasting a couple of big storms in the Lawton/Chickasha/SWOKC area in the 5pm timeframe. NWS on their forecast discussed these, and while they didn't discount the possibility, I think they are attributing that model result to some very specific conditions in that part of the state in advance of the dryline, and that may or may not *really* facilitate t-storm development. They extended the 15% hatched region to the SSW to account for this particular model development, so I think that's a happy compromise in the balance of taking that model as gospel versus dismissing it entirely.

Some commentary from other mets in other forums indicate other models show *no* thunderstorm dev at all. So, in that vein, it's highly tailored to the sensitivities of these specific models. Just keep an eye out would be my suggestion...in addition to keeping Super Hysteria Man *way off* your FB timeline or any other social media.

News 9 went from northern OK for enhanced risk to a split zone including just west of the metro and northern OK.

That's a direct result of the HRRR model firing up a big storm in the Chickasha area in the 5pm timeframe. As I mentioned in the other post, that development is not common among all models.

I have some growing concern after consistent short-range models on suggesting 1-3 supercells forming just W/SW of C OK.

Monitoring the vis sat. this afternoon will basically tell us if it is a bluff or not. I do feel that if these storms do not develop, OKC may not see anything.

Large hail and damaging winds will be the primary threat. I would put an elevated risk of tornados near south of the Norman area per the capability of the southern-most supercell (if developed) will have the highest chance of producing.

I will keep posting, especially once we see how any CU fields are developing.

of course this storm will come into the metro area while i am in class

I have some growing concern after consistent short-range models on suggesting 1-3 supercells forming just W/SW of C OK.

Monitoring the vis sat. this afternoon will basically tell us if it is a bluff or not. I do feel that if these storms do not develop, OKC may not see anything.

Large hail and damaging winds will be the primary threat. I would put an elevated risk of tornados near south of the Norman area per the capability of the southern-most supercell (if developed) will have the highest chance of producing.

I will keep posting, especially once we see how any CU fields are developing.

Man the last satellite I saw was kinda hard for me (as a layman) to interpret - on the one hand, it seemed clouds/moisture were being pushed through/out of the region, but then again some was still present. Could argue with myself in both directions.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1754.html

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd1754.gif

Severe watch likely here very shortly. Increasing consistency of models suggesting storms in SW OK moving up to OKC in early evening. Tenor from various forecasters indicates storms could be pretty intense. Sounds like a good evening to keep aware of what's happening.

MCD from the SPC sez storms forming in the Lawton/Fort Sill area around the 5pm timeframe, moving up through Chickasha and OKC in the early part of the evening.

HRRR is locked in at least one (maybe more) supercells developing.

http://i.imgur.com/SCpi0m8.jpg

TOR watch is out for C and S/SW OK. Basically encompasses the yellow circle I have drawn above, but extending down toward the RR.


http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0491_radar.gif

An interesting thing about this watch is the parameters forecasted are above-average for a springtime setup. The NWS SPC hardly ever gives the EF-2+ category anything more than "very-low" or "low"...This one is currently "moderate".

Looks like Venture's chat is open for discussion, but there is no streaming video information. We can still use it for discussing in a nowcast scenario, though.


LIVE CHAT (http://weatherspotlight.com/chat.html)

I like the red font...it screams Morgan ;-)

Yea sorry, just wanted people to see the text for the chat link in case they are scrolling down. :)

NWS Norman seems to be breaking with SPC on SVR WX risk areas. Here's the SVR and TOR risk categories right now:

http://i.imgur.com/NMauXXe.png http://i.imgur.com/8cW7Gf1.png

Latest HRRR does not fire storms in SW OK on the dryline as was earlier predicted most of today. Will keep monitoring, but confidence in development may be starting to decrease.

Yeah, I keep coming outside and looking at RadarScope and wondering WTHey?

A single cell has fired in SW OK. Near Anadarko now. This will likely be a big storm by the time it enters the metro. Bears watching. I am out atm, but will be back in chat soon.

Got a bit of hail out on i-44 i-235 exchange last night. A lot of rain came down. Then as I went south it was clear. This was about 9pm

Models suggesting a few storms popping up along and west of I-44 this evening, not everyone will see them, like last night. Also the severity should not be as high on development today.

Wow, it's October and it warmed up to 91 in Stillwater today, or at least in my backyard. With a high chance of thunderstorms forecast for Thursday night, hopefully they won't turn real mean. Last night, it rained nearly 3 inches at Red Rock in the first county north of me. Only .20" here. So would settle for it getting a little meaner with the rain. The annual amount rate is still running behind here.

Today will be the last day of warmer temps until next week.

Storms will develop out in NW TX and W OK this afternoon and cluster up into likely a line of storms that sweeps across the state. There are places in NC OK that have received 7" of rain in the last 24 hours, and will be very likely to flood again.

Some models are suggesting redevelopment of rain and storms after the initial line, somewhere across C and SW OK.

There is a slight risk for severe storms with the main threat being high winds. As always, any storms remaining discreet (especially early out west) will have the potential for larger hail.

Some of Stillwater got a little over 2" of rain , most of it from a second storm, so is in a flood watch, covering 5 northern counties. The outlook map has strongest activity in eastern Kansas on into states northeast of there. Dew points are high.

FLOOD WATCH:
Updated: Thu Oct-06-16 10:05am CDT
Effective: Thu Oct-06-16 10:05am CDT
Expires: Thu Oct-06-16 10:26pm CDT

Severity: Moderate
Urgency: Future
Certainty: Possible

Status: Actual
Type: Alert
Category: Met
Areas affected: Garfield; Grant; Kay; Noble; Payne

Instructions: Monitor weather forecasts and information. Make plans to get to higher ground if flooding happens.

Message summary: ...flood watch in effect from 4 pm cdt this afternoon through this evening...
The national weather service in norman has issued a
* flood watch for flash flooding...flooding of creeks and rivers...and flooding of low lying areas for portions of central oklahoma and northern oklahoma...including the following areas...in central oklahoma...payne. In northern oklahoma...garfield...grant...kay and noble.
* from 4 pm cdt this afternoon through this evening
* additional heavy rain will be possible this afternoon and this evening.
* additional rainfall of 1 to 3 inches will be possible in areas that received several inches of rain this morning.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.gif

http://www.stillwaterweather.com/wxgraphic.php?type=banner_big (http://www.stillwaterweather.com/)

Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued for basically the western half of OK until 10pm.

Wrong thread!

Not Oklahoma related, but yall seen the most recent models forecasting Hurricane Matthew? I've never seen anything like it