View Full Version : General Weather Discussion - August 2016
Anonymous. 08-02-2016, 11:09 AM Ridge of death maintaining through the weekend. Then it looks like the state will be feeling impacts of a potential tropical system down in Central America. Looks like we could get in on the tropical moisture play throughout next week and more.
OKCisOK4me 08-02-2016, 04:25 PM That would be awesome!
sacolton 08-03-2016, 03:58 PM Praying for rain! Let it come!
Anonymous. 08-05-2016, 04:14 PM A couple models are suggesting storm development this evening along the I-40 corridor. Nothing organized it appears. Just lucky rain.
Anonymous. 08-09-2016, 08:23 AM The heat dome is really interrupting the would-be rainfall from this tropical system down in Central America. A few lucky Oklahomans have been able to get in on some of the action, but everything is very spotty.
It looks like the heat dome will finally get beaten down far enough to get in the remnants of the tropical rain once we get into this coming weekend. As of now, GFS forecasting heavy rains across a large portion of OK during the weekend.
Rocky in your Radio 08-09-2016, 08:38 AM Greetings everyone! My first post here on okctalk. I love that there is a weather section here. Another forum I've been a part of has one for Oklahoma but it's been hard for other's to participate. Looking at all the data (European, GFS and Canadian models) strongly implies that we may dodge the typical searing heat we typically experience this time of year for what maybe the next couple of weeks. After about Thursday, looks as though we'll be on the downhill slide to temps. averaging a good 4-7 degrees below average with occasional bouts of rain and thunderstorm complexes moving thru. Currently, I would peg Friday night thru possibly Sunday with what could amount to at least an inch of rain across the metro area; some places maybe 2-3 inches. Afterwards, thru most of the following week, slightly below average temperatures and almost daily chances for at least an isolated storm or two. The impending rain chances this time of year can be a good thing, but with it, come's the unseasonably high dew points. So for what amounts to the second summer in a row, we're faced with more of a Florida type of summer rather than an Oklahoma one. Typically by this time of the year, dew points are near 60 at best and temperatures in the mid to upper 90's to near 100F. Not so much this year again. I do not see this pattern changing anytime in the near future.
Further ahead for later in the month into September, possibly more of the same. Long term models (the extended EURO model out 45 days) suggests what I see is an increased chance of tropical activity in the Gulf of Mexico which could have implications on our weather here. I will be surprised if there isn't at least 1 or two named storms threatening coastal areas between Tampa and Corpus Christi next month. Anything that threatens areas to the west of New Orleans may affect us as the remnants of these systems move into our area. I give this scenario happening at least a 40% chance of occurring. Time will tell how this pans out. I'll post more when I'm able. This is a great forum here.. Thanks and have a blessed day.
Rocky in your Radio 08-09-2016, 08:43 AM Ironically you posted the same time I was typing my input.. The 0Z and 6Z GFS runs has possible rain chances thru almost all of next week too. It seems to be almost to aggressive on the QPF outputs which it has a history of doing. Nonetheless, it bears watching. The EURO is less on rainfall but keeps temps. close to average. If the rainfall anticipated comes to fruition, the airmass will be unusually humid, hence my "Florida like" feel to our weather.
Bobby821 08-09-2016, 12:23 PM The heat dome is really interrupting the would-be rainfall from this tropical system down in Central America. A few lucky Oklahomans have been able to get in on some of the action, but everything is very spotty.
It looks like the heat dome will finally get beaten down far enough to get in the remnants of the tropical rain once we get into this coming weekend. As of now, GFS forecasting heavy rains across a large portion of OK during the weekend.
When does it show the rain starting and ending and how much are we going to get in Central Oklahoma?
Anonymous. 08-09-2016, 01:43 PM When does it show the rain starting and ending and how much are we going to get in Central Oklahoma?
At this time, Friday evening and during the early parts of the day Saturday. Estimating 1-2 inches along I-44 corridor and east.
Dustin 08-11-2016, 07:17 PM Bring on the cold front!
Anonymous. 08-12-2016, 10:30 AM Bad news, the low appears like it will track much further east than it has been forecasted the last 4-5 days. This takes the potential for heavy rain to extreme east and southeast OK.
Best chance for Central OK is the afternoon into evening tonight. Then maybe another small shot on Sunday.
Really disappointing, as this would have been a nice 1-3" for most of the state.
Bunty 08-18-2016, 03:06 AM https://scontent-dft4-2.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/14063844_10153841972225732_1091934498424887383_n.j pg?oh=243b155742b0730e9eb5fbd87aa5de8f&oe=5815B124
jn1780 08-18-2016, 09:48 AM I will feel fine as long as a colder end of summer doesn't turn into a colder winter.
Anonymous. 08-18-2016, 10:44 AM Been a while since update, since we were stuck northwest of the tropical mess down south.
Moisture has edged back up into OK overnight, we may see a few showers pop off around southern and central OK late today, otherwise humid and mild with this cloud cover.
Friday night looks like a good shot at rain and thunderstorms as a front comes sweeping out of the NW and collides with the tropical moisture over OK. This looks like a late night event, possibly into early Saturday morning.
Another tropical system coming up through the Baja will affect OK's weather next week with tropical energy coming out daily. This is the same thing that was forecast the last week, but the tropical depression that formed over the northern Gulf and southern states, robbed the moisture and track.
QPF 7-day projections showing 2-4 inches of rain over most of the state. This, in turn with cloud cover, will result in the lower than average temperatures.
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1471535029
Eddie1 08-18-2016, 01:34 PM Looks good, lets hope it happens.
OKCisOK4me 08-18-2016, 05:52 PM Darn it...I really want to go hiking down in Charon's Garden!
Anonymous. 08-22-2016, 01:24 PM Moisture, thus humidity, returning to the state right now. Chance of some rain early Tuesday morning. Still some possible chances Wednesday and then right now looks like the best shot for rain is Thursday evening.
So basically a chance of rain all week, but not everyone will see the rain. Only the lucky ones. Some storms could be temporarily severe if firing off in afternoon with heating.
The recent break from the humidity was more of a relief than the drop in temps.
I bet if you did some research and comparison you'd find that since early June we have been running at the highest dew points / heat index for a very long time and maybe even ever.
Not only does it make things incredibly uncomfortable, the humidity helps retain the heat and thus it never cools off at night or in the morning.
LocoAko 08-22-2016, 02:39 PM The recent break from the humidity was more of a relief than the drop in temps.
I bet if you did some research and comparison you'd find that since early June we have been running at the highest dew points / heat index for a very long time and maybe even ever.
Not only does it make things incredibly uncomfortable, the humidity helps retain the heat and thus it never cools off at night or in the morning.
Your perceptions are spot on.
The data for August isn't available yet since the month isn't over, but both June and July featured average maximum daily heat indices that were 2-5F higher than average:
12905
12904
... which stems primarily from daily average dewpoints running 4-6F above average, particularly in July (and for much of early August).
12907
12906
Actual high temperatures were right around normal for both June and July, so it has definitely been the moisture causing the worse-than-average heat indices.
In fact, for the north OKC Mesonet site as an example, the maximum daily Heat Index was 98F or higher every single day between June 14th and August 11th this year and was almost always above 100F during that period.
John1744 08-22-2016, 05:08 PM The humidity is just soul sucking. I do a decent amount of work outside and earlier this month I couldn't be outside for more than a half hour without a break and being drenched in sweat. If I ever move away a place with low humidity is so gonna be a factor for me.
Depressed is too strong a word but I was really in a funk since the heat and humidity kicked in around early June until just recently.
I'm still adjusting to moving back and I knew the summers would be the biggest challenge, but still...
It's just like when someone moves to a cold climate for the first time. It's the same feeling of being trapped indoors with absolutely no relief for months.
I went out with friends last Thursday and we sat outside at a couple of places and they all thought I was drunk when I wasn't; I was just so happy to be free of the oppressive weather, at least for a while.
And I have to say, people here might not get depressed over the heat but they sure get cranky. Bring on the fall!!
turnpup 08-22-2016, 05:19 PM ^^^^^
"I'm not drunk, really! It's just the weather!"
That would've been a funny conversation to overhear. :D
Roger S 08-23-2016, 08:16 AM I've had a lot of friends complain about it this year but I guess I've just done a great job of staying acclimated because I've not let it slow me down a bit when it comes to doing stuff outdoors.
Anonymous. 08-23-2016, 09:53 AM Decent cluster of showers and storms headed directly towards OKC, should arrive around the lunch hour.
Humidity returned last night and I woke up and the low temperature had barely broken 80 as a result.
I wish someone could explain why we have been in this tropic pattern since early June... And without hardly any rain.
BG918 08-23-2016, 12:57 PM Humidity returned last night and I woke up and the low temperature had barely broken 80 as a result.
I wish someone could explain why we have been in this tropic pattern since early June... And without hardly any rain.
I'd be curious to know as well. If it had been a really wet spring/summer I could understand. Is it just the prevailing airmass has been maybe positioning differently allowing more southern flow from the Gulf? I know parts of SE Texas had record rainfall in the spring and recently Louisiana, has that caused there to be more humidity there which has then been transported northward?
OKCisOK4me 08-23-2016, 07:38 PM The way I understand it...when we do have a front come through, it sweeps the humidity down with it and for places like Louisiana and Texas, its either due to a stalled front or being in the vicinity of the low pressure system. Oklahoma has had a couple of stalled fronts but nothing has ever fired off in major flux. While we did have the "heat dome" over us for a time, that still doesn't mean that it would be straight heat and no humidity...which is crazy cause you've got straight heat in central to lower Arizona but they get monsoon showers. Yep, agreed about the moisture trap. But I'll take it in the 85-95 range vs. the 95-105 range any day of the week.
Anonymous. 08-24-2016, 10:14 PM Basically there is a strip of dry air aloft that is being pulled off of the GOM. This is why the rain has completely shut off from SE TX and the majority of the SE.
This stationary front that Lows travel along is abnormally far to the northwest for this time of year, thus giving us a constant stream of dry air preventing any reasonable precipitation, meanwhile directly along the front that is currently over the OK/TX panhandle and slanted all the way up into Canada - they have abundant showers and thunderstorms coming across in waves.
It is a bad luck scenario and difficult to forecast, because this front is crucial to the pattern, but it has been erratic the last month. Back a few weeks ago when LA/MS was flooding, this same front was down along the gulf coast.
Anonymous. 08-25-2016, 09:36 AM Models suggesting a complex of storms forming out west this evening and slowly evolving to the east. This will be close to C OK, but may skirt just to the northwest (as everything has lately). As you can see from the graphic below, SE and NW OK have been getting great rains. Meanwhile, the central parts of the state are drying out.
http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/realtime/rainrfc.720hr.png
Keeping an eye on the next few days for Hurricane development. Models suggesting a tropical system hitting Florida or coming into the GOM.
Anonymous. 08-25-2016, 03:04 PM Storms firing up now, some even just south of downtown OKC. This is a good sign that things may develop further east and encompass more of central OK.
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd1590.gif
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1590
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0237 PM CDT THU AUG 25 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE TX PANHANDLE AND WESTERN OK
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 251937Z - 252130Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY ORGANIZE AND INTENSIFY ACROSS
THE TX PANHANDLE AND WESTERN OK THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH
THESE STORMS. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE
WATCH ISSUANCE WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE DATA DISPLAY A RESIDUAL OUTFLOW/COLD
FRONT BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM NORTHEAST OK SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE TX
PANHANDLE WHERE IT THEN INTERSECTS WEAK CONFLUENCE/TROUGHING THAT
EXTENDS SOUTHWARD TO THE PERMIAN BASIN. TO THE SOUTH/EAST OF THESE
BOUNDARIES...SFC TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S
WHILE DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S. AS A RESULT...A
CORRIDOR OF 1500-2500 J/KG HAS MATERIALIZED ACROSS THE REGION...AND
SOME FURTHER DESTABILIZATION IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
STORMS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...AIDED BY LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
AND THE AFOREMENTIONED DESTABILIZATION. RECENT KAMA VWP AND
MESOANALYSIS DATA INDICATE THAT THE REGION IS UNDERNEATH THE
SOUTHERN FRINGE OF STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW.
IN TURN...THE DEEP-LAYER WIND PROFILE IS FAVORABLE FOR SOME
MULTICELL/SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...AS WELL AS MAINTENANCE OF SPLITTING
UPDRAFTS THAT WOULD ENHANCE STORM MERGER/STRONG WIND POTENTIAL.
WHILE INDIVIDUAL CELLS WILL LIKELY ADVANCE NORTH/NORTHEAST DUE TO
THE STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...LARGER LINES/CLUSTERS
MAY PROGRESS MORE EAST/NORTHEAST THIS EVENING -- A FUNCTION OF
ADVECTION TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST AND PROPAGATION TO THE EAST INTO
GREATER BUOYANCY. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED LATE THIS
AFTERNOON FOR POTENTIAL WATCH ISSUANCE.
..PICCA/WEISS.. 08/25/2016
John1744 08-25-2016, 06:42 PM Impressive boundary setup all around central OK.
Anonymous. 08-26-2016, 08:18 AM Majority of the rain skirted around OKC, Parts of Piedmont and Edmond got some action.
Rocky in your Radio 08-26-2016, 09:50 AM We only had .35 here at the farm, 5mi. NW of Piedmont. East side of Piedmont had around .90. One of the CoCoRaHS observers had almost 4.5 inches last night and early this morning near Guthrie. Look for more of an isolated afternoon/early evening storm coverage the next few days, then looks as though an upper level ridge may build in after mid week. Long term models (the Euro model in particular) suggests a drier than normal September, but I'll be watching the Gulf of Mexico for any action that may come up our way. I'm anticipating a flurry of tropical storms/hurricanes between now and the first two weeks of October. If any of them make it to the western Gulf.. hopefully some beneficial rains will result for Oklahoma.
Anonymous. 08-29-2016, 08:46 AM General storm chances all week basically. Randomized (mostly afternoon) pop up style storms, hopefully one comes to your backyard!
Anonymous. 08-31-2016, 08:18 AM I can't remember the last time a 30-day rainfall map looked anything close to this:
http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/realtime/rainrfc.720hr.png
Western OK is bringing the water.
Anonymous. 08-31-2016, 03:01 PM Flash flooding taking place across OKC currently. Storm is currently stationary over downtown OKC and north to about southern Edmond. Radar estimation about 2"+ in the last hour.
baralheia 08-31-2016, 03:37 PM What's amazing to me is comparing the 30-day map above to the 365-day rainfall accumulation map. Some areas of the panhandle have picked up 25% or more of their yearly rain just in the last month. Makes me wonder how Lake Optima is looking right about now, lol
Bunty 08-31-2016, 11:48 PM I can't remember the last time a 30-day rainfall map looked anything close to this:
http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/realtime/rainrfc.720hr.png
Western OK is bringing the water.
Amazing how the amounts can very elsewhere in the state. One county got .41", but two counties away got 7.17". My neck of the woods got almost 3" for the last 30 days.
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