Good convergence taking place across the dryline region currently. Should continue to see animation of supercells from N to S along the boundary.

TOR watch(es) coming for large part of CO into KS and down into OK.


http://i.imgur.com/yFV5uYA.png

Watch is posted. Essentially the E 2/3 of KS and all of NW and W OK. Storms are exploding in SW KS and NW OK. Very impressive structures.

Current shear profiles support tornadoes, but will be more supportive heading into this evening.

Any cells that come up ahead of the dryline out in SW or W OK need be watched closely as these could be particularly dangerous.

That someone is always the same person. He does this during the winter storms as well. It's pathetic.So tell us, Pete, why he's still here, please.

So tell us, Pete, why he's still here, please.

There's an ignore button. Pete doesn't have to ban someone from posting on the entire site. Take your own action. I don't see any of his posts because I blocked him quite a while ago.

Watch is posted. Essentially the E 2/3 of KS and all of NW and W OK. Storms are exploding in SW KS and NW OK. Very impressive structures.

Current shear profiles support tornadoes, but will be more supportive heading into this evening.

Any cells that come up ahead of the dryline out in SW or W OK need be watched closely as these could be particularly dangerous.

I love KOCO over the others, but I'm a little perturbed that one of their people said we're on the verge of an historic "outbreak." Is the atmosphere really that primed? Feels extra-gimmicky to predict an outbreak.

I love KOCO over the others, but I'm a little perturbed that one of their people said we're on the verge of an historic "outbreak." Is the atmosphere really that primed? Feels extra-gimmicky to predict an outbreak.

KOCO has been the worst for hype all season and last season as well. I would say their meteorologists are worse in that aspect than Mike Morgan. I recommended News 9 with David Payne for the most hype-free forecast you will get from TV meteorologists here.

That's what insurance is for. you get your house and stuff all fixed up or brand new and nicer things.
until it happens to you, you will never understand. Sure I got new things but things like old family photos, family hand me downs like old Christmas ornaments, hand made items from my grandmother etc ya all that cant be replaced!! I never want to go through all that again, and I wish that on no one. But anyways back to main weather discussion topic

Wow, cloud layer must be burning off, it went from cool and cloudy in east ok county to bright, warm and sunny in just about 15 minutes.

Drier air has pushed into C OK. Feels wonderful out.

Dews are falling fast here in the metro. Now down to 60.

Does this lower chances of seeing anything severe tonight?

Drier air has pushed into C OK. Feels wonderful out.

Except for the 60 mph winds lol

So tell us, Pete, why he's still here, please.

I'm with Jim. Ban the troll.

Do I still need to be thinking about severe weather tonight or is the metro good?

60-70mph winds rushing out of these storms as they collapse.

That was a good little storm that went through last night around midnight, woke me up, I swear there was some decent hail in there.

Watch coming:

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0764.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0764
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0102 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CNTRL KANSAS AND N CNTRL INTO WEST CNTRL
OKLAHOMA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 271802Z - 271930Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...INITIATION OF STORMS MAY COMMENCE WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO BEFORE INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON. STRONGER STORMS LIKELY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY THE RISK
FOR SEVERE HAIL AND STRONG SURFACE GUSTS...PERHAPS AN ISOLATED
TORNADO OR TWO.

DISCUSSION...INHIBITION IS WEAKENING FOR MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
PARCELS WITHIN A NARROW CORRIDOR OF RELATIVELY STRONGER SURFACE
HEATING ACROSS SOUTHWEST THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO CENTRAL
KANSAS. THIS IS CURRENTLY NEAR AND JUST WEST OF THE I-35/135
CORRIDORS...IN ADVANCE OF AN INITIAL SOUTHEASTWARD SURGE OF COOL AIR
INTO THE PLAINS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LEVEL CLOSED LOW/TROUGH
NOW BEGINNING TO TURN NORTHEAST OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS. THIS IS ALSO TO THE NORTHWEST OF A BROAD POOL OF COOLER
BOUNDARY LAYER AIR IMPACTED BY THE LARGE SOUTHEAST TEXAS
THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER.

WITH ADDITIONAL INSOLATION...AND MID-LEVEL COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER SYSTEM...FURTHER DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED TO YIELD
INCREASINGLY SIZABLE CAPE /2000+ J PER KG/. AT LEAST SOME WEAKENING
OF 30-40 KT SOUTHERLY 850 MB FLOW...NOW PRESENT ACROSS THE RED RIVER
VALLEY INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...DEEP LAYER SHEAR BENEATH 30-40 KT CYCLONIC/SOUTHWESTERLY
500 MB FLOW SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS...PARTICULARLY WHERE IT HAS A
MORE PRONOUNCED WESTERLY COMPONENT ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN THROUGH
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

STORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS MOST IMMINENT NEAR THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA
BORDER...BETWEEN ENID AND WICHITA...PERHAPS AS EARLY AS 19-20Z.
THEREAFTER...ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO THE NORTH AND
SOUTHWEST...BEFORE GRADUALLY SPREADING EASTWARD WITH STRONGER
MID-LEVEL COOLING/FORCING FOR ASCENT.

..KERR/CORFIDI.. 05/27/2016

HRRR showing supercells developing out in SW and W OK along dryline later and pushing into C OK.

In the pink is where earliest storm initiation should occur in the next hour or two.

In teal is area were dryline cells might fire and mature as they head east.

http://i.imgur.com/YUOSFJs.png

Storms firing down in SW OK now. These will need to be watched closely as they mature and head NE towards C OK.

Primary threat will be hail and heavy rain. Any isolated cells will be prone to rotation, especially heading into sunset timeframe.

Thanks, Anon, for keeping us so well-informed! We appreciate you!

Dryline bulge in SW OK has sparked off cells. These will likely be impacting OKC. Keep watch on these as you head out for Friday night plans.


http://i.imgur.com/deArRA5.png

Thanks, Anon, for keeping us so well-informed! We appreciate you!

No problem, I know it is redundant with social media these days, but it is still fun to do.

Is there much of a tornado threat with this, or is it more of a wind/hail threat?

Edit: nevermind, I didn't see the post above your map.

No problem, I know it is redundant with social media these days, but it is still fun to do.

Yeah but I don't have to sift through all the crap to get to this, thanks

All cells going up with supercell structures. May see TOR watch replace parts of the SVR watch for SW and C OK.

No problem, I know it is redundant with social media these days, but it is still fun to do.

You're just being humble. I'm pretty sure we get the best information easiest right here! It's certainly not redundant to me, as I don't look anywhere else (save for Venture's chat room when there are tornadoes).

Hail is coming up big time on those cells now. Tracking directly up I-44.

I am heading home, but will get on the chat here in about 30 min. I don't think Venture is around currently, so there may not be a streamed radar feed.

Yeah but I don't have to sift through all the crap to get to this, thanks

Agree with this. Anonymous' updates are the most straight to the point, no bullsh-t updates we get. It's a great resource in addition to other blogs like Aaron Tuttle's for instance.

Chat is rolling. Storms continue to move towards metro area.

Damaging hail potential coming into OKC right now. If you are out and about, think about parking under/in a structure (NOT an overpass).

Damaging hail potential coming into OKC right now. If you are out and about, think about parking under/in a structure (NOT an overpass).

How big is the hail looking like coming into the metro?

Damaging hail potential coming into OKC right now. If you are out and about, think about parking under/in a structure (NOT an overpass).

Great... I'm still at work with no covered parking in sight.

Reports out of Tuttle will let us know, but my guess is at least golfball. Potentially higher.

This storm is getting organized nicely. Tornado potential is increasing.

Less organized on last few scans, but looks like most of OKC will see hail of some size. Largest will be spit out on back side of rotation, so about directly over downtown to the northern sides of downtown OKC.

Hail core is moving more north. Taking largest hail towards Edmond area.

Any given location today could see thunderstorm pop up. Everything will likely flare up to potential severe levels then die down and repeat.

Best chance for organized complex is in SW OK tonight.

Looks like that big blob in the Texas panhandle is going to hit us with much rain. It looks like it is going west east more than then the usual southwest to north east. I am no weat her expert so I could be wrong.

Decent CU field building up across C OK as the air has become very unstable with the morning rain showers that blew through.

Look for redevelopment of storms later this afternoon across this area. Severe potential is there, but it will pulse-type storms that flare up and die down. Flash floods is the main concern.