Some of the other forums I follow seem to be questioning the shear potential on Thursday and hopefully that keeps Tornado potential down.

thinking out loud... how early do people need to prepare for the possibility of severe storms? so many days out seems overkill. just stay aware and you'll be fine. it does create awareness, but also the days-out hype does nothing but create stress for so many. it's not like a winter storm where you have to get bread and milk days ahead of time so you'll survive ;–)

thinking out loud... how early do people need to prepare for the possibility of severe storms? so many days out seems overkill. just stay aware and you'll be fine. it does create awareness, but also the days-out hype does nothing but create stress for so many. it's not like a winter storm where you have to get bread and milk days ahead of time so you'll survive ;–)

I am very much inclined to agree. I understand what the various agencies are trying to accomplish, but sometimes too much information can create a numbness to it. For example, a 30% forecast is deemed successful if it hits its mathematical expectation of being right 3 of 10 times - or wrong 7 of 10. The question becomes how the public becomes conditioned to respond to those very kinds of forecasts...especially when they come so far in advance. Its paradoxical that the information can be numbing. But it's an issue I think that merits consideration as forecast products continue to evolve. You can only do so much in preparation for a storm event three, four, or more days out. I, for one, like the information, but I also understand the angst the forecasts can create. Not an easy nut to crack at all.

Some of the other forums I follow seem to be questioning the shear potential on Thursday and hopefully that keeps Tornado potential down.

What forum is that?

It does help some in the construction trades and others who work outdoors to know the threats days in advance when planning on the job activity’s that have little or no flexibility.

What forum is that?

The forum is a private contractors for OK/KS/TX forum that has a couple hobbyist storm chasers also! And OKWX_geek on twitter had the same impression.

The forum is a private contractors for OK/KS/TX forum that has a couple hobbyist storm chasers also! And OKWX_geek on twitter had the same impression.

As we see tonight, storms can really get going once that low level jet kicks in. So if low sheer profiles are just a little bit better than today and tomorrow things can get pretty interesting with the high cape values.

Yeah these storms up by Woodward spun up an impressive tornado pretty quickly.


Also David Payne at 6pm seemed to be hedging his bets more on Friday.

Also David Payne at 6pm seemed to be hedging his bets more on Friday.

On the other hand, Mike Morgan seems to think Wednesday could be bad. He didn't say anything about Friday. Previously most have agreed that Wednesday wouldn't be a big day except for in maybe far northern Oklahoma.

It appears the SPC has moved the 30% enhanced region for Thursday to western OK, and unless I"m misreading the map, OKC is no longer in that region. Moreover, SPC has only a 15% region for east-central OK for Friday. Wednesday has most of OK in only a "marginal" region (and, again, I just have the hardest time with SPC's rating system. How "marginal" is less of a likelihood than "slight" escapes me, but that's how they do it).

While there continues to be an ongoing environment for possibly severe thunderstorms just about every day this week and even into the weekend, and any individual storm carries its own risk to spin up hail and possibly a tornado, the general discussion from the SPC seems to focus the greatest potential for the most severe weather generally in the west/NW part of the state over the next few days.

Unless I'm just missing something, I would have to say that aside from the normal, cautionary information in the outlooks, I don't see any particularly sobering warnings or advisories about especially dangerous situations in the next few days. Bottom line; it's storm season in OK, and we're in a stormy pattern for the next few days. Just pay attention to what's going on as best you can. Anon, if you think I'm misreading or omitting something, give me a kick in the head and correct me :) :)

Yes the TX PH and W OK is definitely the hotspot this week. The reason you must include the areas east of development zone is the possibility of these storms moving east along their own outflow boundaries or collapsing complexes that kind of morph into clusters. A lot of times with very tall storms collapsing, you can have sudden bursts of wind that reach damaging speeds.

Lately the storms are having a hard time becoming sustained off of the dryline and boundary up in NW/N OK. Also a lack of forcing aloft to shove them eastward. This is why you have these nearly stationary supercells out in SW KS down through NW OK and into the TX PH. Tonight (Tuesday), we may have enough forcing to push some storms eastward into the main body of the state - damaging winds will be highest threat.

This development zone is slowly going to be pushing eastward each day this week. Thursday and Friday still have indications of a significant event. Also do not sleep on Wednesday, this will be one of those days where nothing may develop, but if it does - it will be very severe, and very quickly. The development zone for Wednesday looks to be west of I-35 by 20-30 miles and tapering off to the SW.


It is still very early, but next week looks like it will also be very active, Monday already looks potentially significant, at this time.

Not sure if this is an indication at all, but the TV meteorologists haven't jumped on the hype wagon this time, which is a big change compared to how they've operated all season. So either they've taken the criticism regarding the hype to heart and are waiting until the forecast becomes more clear, or they don't see anything that looks particularly ominous for the OKC area.

Not sure if this is an indication at all, but the TV meteorologists haven't jumped on the hype wagon this time, which is a big change compared to how they've operated all season. So either they've taken the criticism regarding the hype to heart and are waiting until the forecast becomes more clear, or they don't see anything that looks particularly ominous for the OKC area.

I think KWTV has been very measured this season in keeping the hype ratcheted down.

About the only thing they do these days I still wish they would change is their "Tornado Zone" map, which is a relative-risk map in which they highlight one area of an arbitrary risk, color it yellow and label it "LESS LIKELY" (or words to that effect). They then color the rest of the area that is in a relatively higher risk area in bright red and label it "MOST LIKELY." The bright red coloring and labeling creates the illusion of a more serious warning when all they're illustrating is that one area has a higher risk than another, even if the risks is 10% versus 5% (or whatever).

Other than that, my hat's off to Ch 9 this year. Payne's generally doing a good job in a reasonably low-hype way, IMHO.

70F+ dewpoints have flooded across the state today with temperatures in the mid to upper 80Fs. Huge amounts of fuel for storms. All supercells that develop will be very HP.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0706.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0706
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0231 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHWEST KS TO EAST TX PANHANDLE/WEST OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 241931Z - 242130Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SCATTERED SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
DRYLINE AND RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON TO
EARLY EVENING. VERY LARGE HAIL...A FEW TORNADIC STORMS...AND
ISOLATED SEVERE WINDS ARE LIKELY.

DISCUSSION...19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A CYCLONE NEAR HAMILTON
COUNTY KS WITH A DRYLINE EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL TX
PANHANDLE...A RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHWEST KS INTO
NORTH-CENTRAL KS AND ANOTHER CONFLUENT BOUNDARY THROUGH NORTHWEST
OK. THE WARM/MOIST SECTOR AIR MASS IS STRONGLY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE
OF 2500-3500 J/KG AMID UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S SURFACE DEW POINTS.
HIGH-BASED CU HAS COMMENCED BEHIND THE DRYLINE IN THE TX PANHANDLE
AND STRENGTHENING CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY TIED TO THE
LEFT-EXIT REGION OF AN APPROACHING SUBTROPICAL UPPER JET SHOULD
RESULT IN STORM INITIATION BY 21Z. FARTHER NORTH....CLUMPING CU NEAR
THE CYCLONE SHOULD INITIATE INTO STORMS IN A SIMILAR TIME FRAME.

VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 9 DEG C/KM FROM 700-500 MB AS
SAMPLED BY 19Z AMA RAOB WILL BE QUITE CONDUCIVE TO INTENSE UPDRAFT
ACCELERATION ONCE STORMS INITIATE. AS SUCH...VERY LARGE HAIL SHOULD
BE THE PRIMARY INITIAL HAZARD. AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS THIS
EVENING...TORNADO/WIND POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY INCREASE TOWARDS 00Z.

..GRAMS/HART.. 05/24/2016

Giant supercell just north of Stillwater has exploded.

Currently sagging south and east, to nearly stationary.

Watch this storm, as it could go tornado pretty easily right along the boundary up there.

That storm is now TOR warned.

I am in the chat for anyone who wants to partake. This is the only storm in the state at the moment... 2:45pm

Watching this storm on radar... the circulation tightened up for a bit but it seems to be cycling right now. Overall this storm seems to be a bit disorganized, though.

Rotation has significantly weakened; as a result, NWS let TOR warning expire. Storm is now SVR warned through 4pm, with up to 2" hail expected per @NWSNorman on Twitter

I'm watching the newson6 stream now, and the rotation on this storm keeps extending downwards but just barely stops short of forming an actual tornado. Looks like glencoe is just barely going to miss getting hit.

Interesting, though, how an isolated severe storm formed to the north of Stillwater around 2 PM and has slowly been moving SE. Fortunately, main area of concern for possible tornadoes is in the countryside well to the east of Stillwater at Highway 51 and 18.

Now that it's near Bristow it's trying to drop another funnel, but just can't quite do it. I'm praying this thing will finally go away soon. A lot of people really dodged a bullet with this storm already, but who knows what will happen in the next hour.

Interesting, though, how an isolated severe storm formed to the north of Stillwater around 2 PM and has slowly been moving SE. Fortunately, main area of concern for possible tornadoes is in the countryside well to the east of Stillwater at Highway 51 and 18.
The rain and a little small hail stopped as the storm split apart over Stillwater. So none of this as much as 2 to 4 in. rains in Stillwater as Mike Morgan was excited about. Now two storms, the west one threatened Stillwater with more severe weather, but it quickly dissipated before arrival, allowing the sun to come out. But the part east of Stillwater kept very strong with tornado warnings having to be issued in Creek County.

West Kansas just got hammered tonight.

Anything to worry about with these storms going up over the metro right now, or are these just garden variety thunderstorms?

So with today over with and most forecasts for tomorrow betting on the cap holding, what are we looking at for Thursday and Friday, specifically the OKC area?

There is all sorts of strange outflow boundaries draped across the state today. Could have one try and force off some cells later this afternoon - Even the dryline could spark off a couple. Otherwise, cap will be strong. Anything that develops will be like yesterday and likely go severe and rotating quickly.

All modes possible Thursday in OKC. I would emphasize hail.

There is all sorts of strange outflow boundaries draped across the state today. Could have one try and force off some cells later this afternoon - Even the dryline could spark off a couple. Otherwise, cap will be strong. Anything that develops will be like yesterday and likely go severe and rotating quickly.

All modes possible Thursday in OKC. I would emphasize hail.

Looking at SPC it would appear that not much is expected for the OKC area for Thursday we are not even in the enhanced risk area. and as for Friday we have been downgraded to a lowly Marginal risk with the Slight risk pushed all the way down to SE Oklahoma. Looks like the OKC area will miss out on this storm system the way things are looking/going.

Looking at SPC it would appear that not much is expected for the OKC area for Thursday we are not even in the enhanced risk area. and as for Friday we have been downgraded to a lowly Marginal risk with the Slight risk pushed all the way down to SE Oklahoma. Looks like the OKC area will miss out on this storm system the way things are looking/going.

What has been said countless times before, storms don't care what the color of the map is. That Stillwater storm was pretty impressive and that was far away from the enhanced risk area. The storms that fired in Edmond and moved off to the north were pretty rowdy also. The enhanced risk for tomorrow is pretty close to the metro area, but the tornado risk is still low. We are in a early summer and late spring severe weather pattern with little shear but lots of energy so hail, rain, lighting, and wind are higher.

Looking at SPC it would appear that not much is expected for the OKC area for Thursday we are not even in the enhanced risk area. and as for Friday we have been downgraded to a lowly Marginal risk with the Slight risk pushed all the way down to SE Oklahoma. Looks like the OKC area will miss out on this storm system the way things are looking/going.

This goes with what Mike Morgan has been predicting all week. He has not thought Friday would be a big deal. Today could be bad if anything breaks the cap. If not, tomorrow is central OK's highest chance at seeing severe activity. Next week, as we move into June, the jet stream weakens so that should lower the tornado risk even though the pattern looks to remain active.

Here is the latest text from SPC concerning our area tomorrow. what does this mean for us here in the metro area? Storms going to puny out before getting here again or are we going to get some action here in the metro finally tomorrow?

...CNTRL KS SWD INTO WRN OK...
HEATING AND A RAPID NWD TRANSPORT OF UPPER 60S F DEWPOINTS WILL LEAD
TO VERY STRONG INSTABILITY NEAR THE DRYLINE S OF THE SFC LOW AS
UPPER WIND FIELDS STRENGTHEN. HODOGRAPHS WILL BECOME FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS BY 21-00Z...WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES POSSIBLE.
WHILE STORMS MAY BE MORE ISOLATED ACROSS THIS AREA...SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE IS CONDITIONALLY LIKELY INCLUDING TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE
HAIL. SOME BACKING OF THE WINDS IS EVIDENT IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS
MAINLY ABOVE 700 MB...BUT HODOGRAPHS REMAIN QUITE SUFFICIENT.

Here is the latest text from SPC concerning our area tomorrow. what does this mean for us here in the metro area? Storms going to puny out before getting here again or are we going to get some action here in the metro finally tomorrow?

...CNTRL KS SWD INTO WRN OK...
HEATING AND A RAPID NWD TRANSPORT OF UPPER 60S F DEWPOINTS WILL LEAD
TO VERY STRONG INSTABILITY NEAR THE DRYLINE S OF THE SFC LOW AS
UPPER WIND FIELDS STRENGTHEN. HODOGRAPHS WILL BECOME FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS BY 21-00Z...WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES POSSIBLE.
WHILE STORMS MAY BE MORE ISOLATED ACROSS THIS AREA...SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE IS CONDITIONALLY LIKELY INCLUDING TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE
HAIL. SOME BACKING OF THE WINDS IS EVIDENT IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS
MAINLY ABOVE 700 MB...BUT HODOGRAPHS REMAIN QUITE SUFFICIENT.

Seems to me the focus of attention there is *really* southern Kansas, but to a somewhat lesser extent, NW Oklahoma. I think what they're trying to say, essentially, is that the entire area is *subject* to severe weather, and if it *gets* going, it could be pretty strong, but the NW OK region is - from a forecast perspective - the most likely region where these things could really crank up. The low is focused in that mid-KS area, so that combined with the moisture flowing in is the obvious focal point for storms to really get going tomorrow. That threat diminishes as you get farther away from the low (and that's an oversimplification, but for the sake of this discussion its reasonable).

I wouldn't *discount* the possibility of storms here in central OK, but I think the forecasters are saying pay *special* attention to those areas north and west. Considering that as we drew closer to Thursday the 30% Enh region that was present Monday has shifted west and north, it would suggest to me that's also part of why the SPC has written that forecast as they have.

Bottom line? just keep an ear open and pay attention to what's going on. Heck, as the day progresses, check out where the chasers are going :) :) My bet is the KS area...

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0726.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0726
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0247 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...NCNTRL OK THROUGH ECNTRL KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 251947Z - 252145Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ISOLATED STORMS TO DEVELOP FROM
NCNTRL OK TO ECNTRL KS. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN
THREAT...BUT A FEW TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...THIS AFTERNOON A DRYLINE EXTENDS FROM A SFC LOW IN
WCNTRL KS SWWD THROUGH WRN OK AND NWRN TX. EAST OF DRYLINE A TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM CNTRL KS SWD INTO NCNTRL OK...AND THIS BOUNDARY
INTERSECTS THE NRN PORTION OF AN EXPANSIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT
EXTENDS FROM SRN AR THROUGH CNTRL AND NCNTRL OK. E-W
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHES FROM THE SFC LOW IN WCNTRL KS ENEWD
THROUGH NCNTRL KS.

LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME VERY
UNSTABLE IN THE WARM SECTOR WHERE EML PLUME HAS ADVECTED ABOVE A
VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER CONTRIBUTING TO 3000-3500 J/KG MLCAPE.
HOWEVER...ATMOSPHERE STILL APPEARS CAPPED IN THIS REGION JUDGING BY
THE CHARACTER OF THE LOW CLOUDS. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT STORMS MAY
DEVELOP OVER NCNTRL OK INTO SCNTRL KS BY 22Z AT THE INTERSECTION OF
THERMAL/MOIST AXIS...OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND WEAKLY CONVERGENT
TROUGH/DRYLINE. GIVEN LINGERING CAP ASSOCIATED WITH EML PLUME AND
PRESENCE OF LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE/DRYING ALOFT...IT APPEARS LIKELY
THAT STORMS WILL REMAIN ISOLATED. HOWEVER...35-40 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR
AND STRONG INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE
HAIL. A WINDOW WILL ALSO EXIST FOR A FEW TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY AS
THE LLJ STRENGTHENS DURING THE EARLY EVENING AND BEFORE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER DECOUPLES.

..DIAL/HART.. 05/25/2016

Here is the latest thinking from NWS for tomorrow...

The more likely timing for thunderstorms developing just ahead of
the dryline would be Thursday afternoon. For now, latest NAM
guidance places a weak inversion cap across far northern Oklahoma,
leaving everything to the south un-capped and prime for convection
breaking out. WRF guidance suggesting convection beginning across
western Oklahoma early afternoon, and advance eastward to near
I-35 by late afternoon as we continue to heat. With mu CAPE values
near 4000 j/kg, large damaging hail up to baseballs and severe
wind gusts would be possible under these storm cells. By late
Thursday into Friday, an advancing upper low across the southern
high plains will shift into western Kansas, moving our storms into
southeast Oklahoma toward the early morning hours of Saturday. As
Saturday progresses, the dryline should push across our area and
start drying us out.

In the extended, sfc moisture will make a quick return across our
area beginning Sunday and into next week. A series of shortwave
troughs digging through will reintroduce low pops through day 7.
For now, both GFS and ECMWF keep us quite wet into next week.

HRRR showing supercells developing in W OK in the next few hours. It tends to overestimate cap-breakthrough, but keep an eye out if you see large anvils draped across C OK from W OK at sunset.

The risk area has been redrawn for tomorrow pushing things a little farther north and west.

As long as things don't change, it looks like the OKC metro could get through this week without serious impact *knocks on wood*.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk_1730.gif?1464219820050

Looked like my parents' house was going to take a direct hit tonight until the tornado fizzled out about a mile away. Closer call than I would like!

Today looks like a really tricky setup. Starting out, we have storms coming up into SC/SE Oklahoma from Texas, which always does fun things to forecasts insofar as they "beat up" the atmosphere and possibly limit later redevelopment, or at a minimum make location of such redevelopment very difficult to pinpoint depending on where things like outflow boundaries end up. The surface low is still centered in the NE/KS area, and the focus for the higher end severe stuff remains in that area - however, no one has to see a map to know the air is just oppressively thick with humidity and warmth, and that means there's a basic ingredient for thunderstorms no matter what the map says.

Even the SPC folks are struggling with the phrasing on their outlook. In effect, they're pointing out that lots of ingredients for what they call "vigorous thunderstorms" are present, but the timing and location for any one batch are very difficult to pinpoint due to all the other storms and convection ongoing in the area. They're focused on the KS and W TX areas in that enhanced region, but I think they are trying to caution generally that storms *anywhere* in this region could fire and get big in a hurry. Tornado risk in broader OK appears lower, hail risk higher.

Best advice? Just keep aware of what's going on in general today. Nailing down specifics on anything is really dicey for today.

Storms firing up down in SW OK, will spread over C OK today. If this convection gets moved out and clearing takes place behind it (looks likely at this time), we will have a round of dryline action fire up later tonight.

Main threats with this current wave is heavy rain, we are all aware by now that there is tropical moisture in place, and the rain is very heavy with it.

Storms firing up down in SW OK, will spread over C OK today. If this convection gets moved out and clearing takes place behind it (looks likely at this time), we will have a round of dryline action fire up later tonight.

Main threats with this current wave is heavy rain, we are all aware by now that there is tropical moisture in place, and the rain is very heavy with it.

Man.... Why do you have to rain on my golf parade like this? ;)

I tossed the clubs in the car but I really didn't have much hope of getting to use them today.... lol

Hopefully the OKC area finally starts getting in on the action, by looking at the latest outlook from SPC though it would appear to be looking like another dud for us here.

Hopefully the OKC area finally starts getting in on the action, by looking at the latest outlook from SPC though it would appear to be looking like another dud for us here.

I hope to hell it's a dud. Just want a nice rain.

Severe storms are more exciting than just rain

Severe storms are more exciting than just rain
… and generally more destructive and expensive.

… and generally more destructive and expensive.

That's what insurance is for. you get your house and stuff all fixed up or brand new and nicer things.

That's what insurance is for. you get your house and stuff all fixed up or brand new and nicer things.
There is some truth to that. However, if you have ever lived through that and dealt with it, I and many others have, it is a living hell. You are a sad, sick human being.

Most people are really happy when the forecast shows the worst of the severe weather is going to stay away from populated areas. Damage, death, and destruction are not something to wish for.

That's what insurance is for. you get your house and stuff all fixed up or brand new and nicer things.

So is it just OKC that you're hoping gets destroyed? Woodward or Purcell or some rural farm wouldn't excite you as much? Are you okay with no injuries happening or would that just not do it for you? I've had close friends go through injury and personal loss due to storms, and you are beyond idiotic and heartless to wish that on anyone. Go perform a certain anatomically impossible act on yourself.

Severe storms are more exciting than just rain

Every now and then, someone decides to start trolling this kind of stuff here. I'd respectfully ask that it stops, because even if you're just pulling someone's leg, it adds nothing to the discussion and just creates frustration and hard feelings. There's just no point. If storms are your thing, great, that's your prerogative, but let's keep this thread informational.

Please?

Anyway... NWS seems to have a bit more confidence in expanding the enhanced risk back down. Hail seems to be the primary concern over much of western OK.

http://i.imgur.com/LjLvdhJ.png

Every now and then, someone decides to start trolling this kind of stuff here. I'd respectfully ask that it stops, because even if you're just pulling someone's leg, it adds nothing to the discussion and just creates frustration and hard feelings. There's just no point. If storms are your thing, great, that's your prerogative, but let's keep this thread informational.

Please?

My apologies for letting this get the better of me.

That's what insurance is for. you get your house and stuff all fixed up or brand new and nicer things.

Nice fantasy world. Here's reality:

--You pay a sizeable deductible for said insurance claim.
--Insurance haggles you to death and ridiculously undervalues the items you claim damaged/destroyed.
--Insurance company dumps you after claim is complete.
--Next insurance premium is 3x higher than your previous premium.
--Your friends in your zip code see their insurance shoot up, too, even if they didn't make a claim.
--Everyone loses.

That's what insurance is for. you get your house and stuff all fixed up or brand new and nicer things.

Dude, seriously? That's massively f-ed up. Do you have *any* idea how many things people have that are irreplaceable, literally cannot ever, ever, never, not in a million years be replaced by "brand new and nicer things"?

Every now and then, someone decides to start trolling this kind of stuff here. I'd respectfully ask that it stops, because even if you're just pulling someone's leg, it adds nothing to the discussion and just creates frustration and hard feelings. There's just no point. If storms are your thing, great, that's your prerogative, but let's keep this thread informational.

Please?

That someone is always the same person. He does this during the winter storms as well. It's pathetic.

I am sorry, I was just venting frustration. now back to topic

This early day convection is fizzling out for the most part, and it looks like OKC might not even see any of it. There is a small batch going north through W OK, and some spotty showers down near the Red River.

If you look @ currently visible satellite, you can see the vast clearing throughout SW and W OK, despite the thundershowers.

http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/noaa/sat/maps/realtime/latest.goes_east.visible.png?1464279635525

With an already healthy CU field out in extreme eastern TX PH, strong storms are likely to develop very near the OK/TX PH border and shove ENE.

That someone is always the same person. He does this during the winter storms as well. It's pathetic.

Agreed. I have never heard of anyone who actually enjoys destructive ice storms and power outages other than said person. Snowstorms and blizzards have their beauty, but there is nothing positive about an ice storm.

https://i.gyazo.com/61c5736556e94e191aacc28386ecad4f.gif

Anyway... NWS seems to have a bit more confidence in expanding the enhanced risk back down. Hail seems to be the primary concern over much of western OK.

http://i.imgur.com/LjLvdhJ.png

Looks like most of central KS has been upgraded to a moderate risk as well.

Ugh Kansas has had the rough end of the stick this week. Thankfully they seem to be sticking to rural land for the most part so far.